Fernando Alcoforado *
Brazil is a complex, dynamic, adaptive and non-linear system because it has in its composition elements or agents in large numbers that interact with each other forming one or more structures that originate from the interactions between such agents. Complex systems are systems that are characterized by being dynamic and whose fundamental characteristics are their sensitive dependence on the initial conditions by which, at the beginning of any process, slight differences can lead to completely undesirable situations over time. Chaos Theory explains the functioning of complex and dynamic systems. In these systems, many elements are interacting in an unpredictable and random manner, as is the case in Brazil.
According to Chaos Theory, a dynamic system, whether it occurs in nature, in society, or in a computer simulation, is governed by attractors. These attractors define “the phase picture” of the system, that is, the way it behaves over time. Stable attractors pull the developmental trajectory of the system to a recurring and recognizable pattern, leading it to converge at a given point (if the system is governed by point attractors) or to describe cycles through different states (when it is under the command of periodic attractors). However, dynamic systems can also achieve a state in which the attractors that emerge are not stable, but “strange”. They are chaotic attractors.
From the crisis experienced by Brazil that affects the whole of Brazilian society at the moment, it can be said that the country is being governed by a fractal (also called a strange attractor), when the system presents chaos, as is the case of the truck drivers movement which is contributing to create chaos in all sectors of activity. In chaotic systems the movement never repeats itself, although it often has to occur within certain limits. Thus, only an infinitely complex figure – a fractal – can account for representing this trajectory that is never repeated in phase space.
It should be noted that systems go into a state of chaos when fluctuations that have hitherto been corrected by self-stabilizing feedbacks are out of control. This is the case of Petrobras’ daily fuel prices, which produce high losses for truck drivers and road haulage companies in Brazil. This situation is leading Brazil to a critical point where it is collapsing into its stable individual components or evolving into a state resistant to fluctuations that have destabilized it. In other words, a dynamic system like Brazil is being brought to a bifurcation point from which it has to be restructured or it will or enter collapsing. This is the situation experienced by Brazil at the moment.
The road that would lead to the overcoming of Brazil’s collapse as a system, which has not been resolved until now, would require the reduction of taxes and fuel prices, respectively, by the federal and state governments and Petrobras for the benefit of truck drivers and of transportation companies. The federal government reduced PIS / Cofins taxes by 60 days, Petrobras agreed to vary the price of diesel on a monthly basis and not daily taking into account the price of oil in the international market with the government reimbursing this company of the loss with the change of price policy. The measures adopted, in addition to being short-lived (60 days to reduce taxes and 30 days to freeze the price of diesel) are therefore not definitive. This means that the collapse of Brazil’s economic activities has only been postponed. The crisis with the truck drivers may briefly come back because Brazil has not been restructured to avoid future crises that will only happen with the adoption of a different transport matrix from the current one and Petrobras’ fuel price policy to consider the compatibility between the interests of its shareholders and Brazilian society.
President Michel Temer made a pronouncement yesterday (May 25) promising a reduction of R$ 0.46 of the liter of diesel in taxes related to PIS / Cofins and Cide for 60 days, exemption of the suspended axle of the trucks in the toll and the price minimum of the freight, in addition to the reduction of 10% of the price of diesel already promised by Petrobras that can cause the truckers to retake their activities, but will not be enough to solve the problem definitively that can resurface in a short time. This government grant of reduction of federal taxes will represent an additional cost of R$ 10 billion for the National Treasury and the reduction of 10% in the price of diesel of Petrobras whose cost will be assumed by the National Treasury. This decision to be paid by the taxpayer was taken to avoid the collapse of the economic activities of the Country and consequently avoid the end of the Michel Temer government.
This decision by the government may contribute to the truck drivers and the transport companies retake their activities and so that there is minimum governance of the political, economic and social systems in Brazil at the moment. The tax reduction will not be enough to solve the crisis with the truck drivers, given that the prices of fuels practiced by Petrobras should evolve with the price of oil in the international market. In any case, this decision will ensure that there is a minimum of governance in the country, in addition to avoiding the economic and social collapse of Brazil that would have political repercussions with the end of the Michel Temer government that could occur in a managed manner with his resignation or by force with their deposition.
It is necessary to observe that governability is only achieved when there is: 1) the most constructive relationship possible of the constituted powers of the Republic (Executive, Legislative and Judiciary) among each other in the decision-making process; 2) the most constructive relationship possible between the constituted powers of the Republic and the governments of the states of the Brazilian federations and municipalities in the decision-making process; and 3) the most constructive relationship possible between the constituted powers of the Republic and Civil Society in the decision-making process. Governability expresses, in brief, the possibility of the government of a nation to carry out public policies resulting from the convergence between the various instances of the national State between itself and this with the organizations of Civil Society. The Michel Temer government does not meet any of these conditions in Brazil today. The crisis of the federal government with the truck drivers proves this statement.
The current crisis triggered by the truck drivers movement makes it clear that for Brazil to ensure the governability of its political system, it would be necessary to make the current neoliberal economic system replaced by another economic model that would make the country’s economic system sensitive to “feedback” and control exercised by the government and not dictated by the market as it is today, there is a new Constitution to reorder the political system and the social system achieve the stability necessary to achieve social peace. The condition for social peace is to ensure effective governability to promote social progress that is shared by the entire population. Social progress results from the practice of much social justice, a necessary condition for the construction of social peace. Unfortunately, at present, chaos prevails in Brazil in which the supreme interests of the Brazilian population are not considered, but those of the financial system and large national and international economic groups.
Social progress will only be carried out in Brazil since there is also effective Governance that is related to the financial and administrative capacity of the government of a national State and the competence of its managers to practice public policies. None of these conditions exist in Brazil. Governance is the competence of government managers to practice the decisions taken or, in other words, the ability of the national state to exercise its government. Governance is to transform the governmental act into public action, articulating the actions of the government at all levels and with Civil Society. Brazil is experiencing a crisis of governance in the face of the inability of federal, state and municipal governments to produce the results demanded by society. The truck drivers’ movement has made clear the governance crisis of Brazilian political, economic and social system and of Michel Temer government that is nearing its end.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.
Site Title 