THE SOLUTIONS AGAINST UNEMPLOYMENT RESULTING FROM TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT

Fernando Alcoforado *

Martin Ford, a futurist and author dedicated to the study of artificial intelligence, robotics and the impact on employment, said that researchers at Oxford University published in 2013 a detailed study of the impact of computing on employment in the United States, considering recent advances in machine learning and mobile robots. They analyzed each of the professional categories cataloged by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics based on a database of skills required to perform those jobs. The researchers concluded that 47% of current jobs are at high risk of automation in the coming years and decades and another 19% at medium risk. They consider that only a third of current workers are saved from replacement in the next one or two decades (FORD, Martin. Rise of the Robots. New York: Basic Books, 2015).

We live without a doubt an era defined by the fundamental change between workers and machines and that this change puts in check one of the basic hypotheses about the technology that machines are instruments that increases the productivity of workers. Instead, machines are turning into workers. Faced with the prospect of replacing workers by machines, the solutions that are presented to mitigate the effects of unemployment generated by the technological advance in the current developmental frameworks of capitalism concern the adoption of the Creative Economy, the Social and Solidarity Economy and the Transfer Program of Income.

Regarding the Creative Economy, Marisa Adán Gil informs that it is one of the most effective ways to generate new jobs based on the opinion of George Windsor, research director of Nesta, a nonprofit organization that aims to stimulate the 12 sectors of the creative economy in the UK. In Windsor’s view, job creation linked to creativity has enormous potential to move the economy, that is, “the creative industry adds value to products in a way that no other industry is capable of”. According to Windsor, there are several ways to generate jobs linked to the knowledge economy: to stimulate the gaming industry; develop local creative nuclei that work based on the cultural traditions of each region; facilitate credit for creative sectors of the economy; investment in design and technology education. If the British government embraces these measures, he believes it is possible to create 1 million jobs in the UK by 2030. According to Windsor, today the Creative Economy is one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy. It is also one of the most profitable areas in terms of generating profits, jobs and exports of goods and services [GIL, Marisa Adán. Economia criativa é saída para o desemprego, diz especialista (Creative economy is solution to unemployment, says expert). Available on website <http://revistapegn.globo.com/Empreendedorismo/noticia/2015/12/economia-criativa-e-saida-para-o-desemprego-diz-especialista.html>, 2015].

The article The creative economy in the modern world informs that the term “Creative Economy” refers to activities with socioeconomic potential that deal with creativity, knowledge and information. In order to understand it, it is necessary to keep in mind that companies of this sector combine the creation, production and commercialization of cultural creative assets and innovation such as Fashion, Art, Digital Media, Advertising, Journalism, Photography and Architecture. In common, area businesses rely on talent and creativity to effectively exist. They are distributed in 13 different areas: 1) architecture; 2) advertising; 3) design; 4) arts and antiquities; 5) crafts; 6) fashion; 7) cinema and video; 8) television; 9) publishing and publications; 10) performing arts; 11) radio; 12) leisure software; and, 13) music. It is important to say that by focusing on creativity, imagination and innovation as its main characteristic, the Creative Economy is not restricted to products, services or technologies. It also encompasses processes, business models, management models, etc.[ DESCOLA. A economia criativa no mundo moderno (The creative economy in the modern world). Available on the website <https://descola.org/drops/a-economia-criativa-no-mundo-moderno/>, 2016].

In sectors linked to art, for example, such as performing arts, visuals and music, the number of opportunities that stimulate specialized in filming, recording and photography services is increasing. In addition, the individual interested in this area may also choose to specialize in show management and art direction; creation of scenery and costumes, for example, in addition to lighting, sound, image services. In this area, there are also painting studios, for example. In the communications sector, the list of specializations is also great: service to the public; traditional and digital marketing, creation of websites, brands and portals. There are also the media-related segments, which include video and game production, and audiovisual distribution and display systems, which also generate countless jobs, that is, from creating content to managing and distributing it, is a fairly rich area opportunities. Advertising also stimulates publishing, reproduction and printing services, as well as the management of agencies and advertising companies. This group is very rich and diverse contemplating several professions in all the stages of production, recording, finalization and post-production of advertisements, marketing etc. Among the businesses related to design, architecture, among others, are, for example, agencies and startups, architectural and engineering technical offices and design studios.

On Social and Solidarity Economy, it is important to note that it is one of the ways of the future to invent other ways of producing and consuming, contributing to greater social cohesion. This is the opinion of Géraldine Lacroix and Romain Slitine presented in his book L’économie sociale et solidaire (Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, 2016). According to Lacroix and Slitine, from fair trade to solidarity saving through social innovations in the field of protecting the environment, combating social exclusion or equal opportunities, the Social and Solidarity Economy offers answers to many questions of contemporary society. In this book it is reported that the Social and Solidarity Economy corresponds to 10% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and accounts for 12.7% of employment in France. In Brazil, the Social and Solidarity Economy represents 1% of GDP [REDE BRASIL ATUAL. Com autogestão, economia solidária já representa 1% do PIB no Brasil (With self-management, solidary economy already represents 1% of GDP in Brazil). Available on website <http://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/economia/2015/08/economia-solidaria-ja-representa-1-do-pib-no-brasil-3696.html, 2015>].

The Social and Solidarity Economy is a new model of economic, social, political and environmental development that has a different way of generating work and income, in several sectors, be it community banks, credit cooperatives, family agriculture cooperatives, fair trade, exchange clubs, etc. The Social and Solidarity Economy is a new way of organizing work and economic activities in general, emerging as an important alternative for the inclusion of workers in the labor market, giving a new opportunity to them, through self-management. On the basis of the Social and Solidarity Economy, there is the possibility of recovering companies from the bankruptcy mass, and give continuity to them, with a new mode of production, in which profit maximization ceases to be the main objective, giving rise to the maximization of quantity and quality of work.

It should be noted that Social and Solidarity Economy emerged in Europe with the first Industrial Revolution in the late eighteenth century. However, it was in Great Britain (more precisely in England) that it took the sharpest form from the nineteenth century, as a “response to the worsening of the labor crisis” and the growing dissatisfaction with the performance of the public social security system. In view of these economic and social gaps that the history of capitalism has produced comes up, as an alternative model, the Social and Solidarity Economy [SILVA, José Luís Alves e SILVA, Sandra Isabel Reis. A economia solidária como base do desenvolvimento local  (Solidarity Economy as a basis for local development). Available on website <https://journals.openedition.org/eces/1451>, 2008]. It should be noted that the Social and Solidarity Economy was invented by workers in the early days of industrial capitalism.

The Social and Solidarity Economy, in its resurgence around the end of the twentieth century, appeared as a response of the workers to the productive restructuring of globalized capitalism and to the abusive and unused criteria of new technologies that provoked mass unemployment and the bankruptcy of companies. Social and Solidarity Economy stands as a possible alternative to generate employment for workers who are mostly excluded from the formal labor market and consumption. The Social and Solidarity Economy has emerged in various parts of the world with practices of economic and social relations that are promoting the survival and the improvement of the quality of life of millions of people. These practices are based on solidary relations of collaboration, inspired by cultural values that place the human being as the subject and purpose of economic activity, instead of private accumulation of wealth in general and capital in particular.

Martin Ford states that in our economy and society, machines are gradually undergoing a fundamental transition: they develop beyond their historical role as a tool and, in many cases, become “autonomous workers” (FORD, Martin. Rise of the robots. New York: Basic Books, 2015). If we accept the idea that it is unrealistic to stop automation and that more investment in education and training is unlikely to solve the problem of unemployment, Ford believes that the most effective solution is to adopt an income guarantee policy for workers. This idea is not new. Friedrich August von Hayek, Austrian economist and philosopher, later naturalized British, considered one of the greatest representatives of the Austrian School of economic thought, was the proponent of this idea when he published his work Law, Legislation and Liberty (Routledge, 1988) between 1973 and 1979. The neoliberal income transfer program of the Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments in Brazil, the Bolsa Família, is an example of the application of Hayek’s income guarantee policy.

In addition to the need to provide basic net security, Ford (2015) states that there is a powerful argument for the adoption of income guarantee policy because technological advancement, in addition to promoting mass unemployment and vertiginous social inequality, threatens capitalism itself with the prospect of vertiginous fall of the consumption. As the labor market continues to erode and wages stagnate or fall, the mechanism that ensures consumers’ purchasing power begins to break down and the demand for products and services suffer as a result. Faced with this fact, the income guarantee policy would provide the conditions for unemployed workers to consume. It would be for the governments of the countries of the world to levy taxes on high-tech companies to ensure the adoption of the income guarantee policy for the unemployed population. The Income Transfer Program through which the State would provide income to the unemployed would be put into practice together with the adoption of the Creative Economy and the Social and Solidarity Economy as a solution to mass unemployment resulting from technological advancement.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, ​​university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development,  Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.