Fernando Alcoforado*
Brazil has 5 candidates for the Presidency of the Republic who are more likely to vote in the presidential elections. They are Jair Bolsonaro, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin and the PT candidate who will take the place of Lula. The analysis of these candidates shows that, ideologically, Bolsonaro and Alckmin are right-wing and Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes and the PT candidate are left-wing. Left and Right are a common way of classifying political, ideological, or political parties. Bobbio states that a fundamental difference between left and right is that the former is an uncompromising advocate of equality and the right is not. The left believes that most of the inequalities are social and, as such, eliminable and the right thinks that most of them are natural and therefore ineliminable [BOBBIO, Norberto. Direita e esquerda (Left and Right). São Paulo: Editora UNESP, 1995].
Another difference between the left and right in Brazil is that the left defends the intervention of the State in the economy with development plans and the right advocates the non-intervention of the government in the market, the left is against the neoliberal policy of liberalization of the market and privatization of state-owned enterprises, while the right wing defends the contrary. Another difference between left and right in Brazil is that the left is reformist in advocating political, economic and social reforms favorable to the majority of the population, while the right is conservative in defending the maintenance of the privileges of the ruling classes. Another difference between left and right in Brazil is that the left is an uncompromising defender of national interests and the right wing defends the opposite. The most viable leftist presidential candidates in Brazil are reformers to a greater or lesser extent, while those on the right are conservative.
The candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, who is a radical right-wing, and therefore a defender of the maintenance of the privileges of the ruling classes, makes the impression in his interviews that he does not understand anything about economics, a fact that is very bad because the President of the Republic has to have discernment to decide on the best ways to develop Brazil. Asked if he has a development plan for Brazil, he replied that he has not and that no one has. For the above, Bolsonaro shows lack of preparation to govern Brazil for not understanding economics and not pointing out the concrete solutions that lead to overcoming the current crisis and reactivate the national economy. The crisis that affects Brazil would deepen with the rise to power of Jair Bolsonaro.
Marina Silva, who is of center-left, has criticized the Michel Temer government and its neoliberal economic agenda, as well as political reform under discussion in parliament. Marina criticized the Planalto’s Social Security reform bill and attacked the way Temer forwarded the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution that sets a ceiling on public spending for 20 years. Marina had already been accused by former members of her party for not taking a stand on the main issues of the country. At the end of 2016 a group of intellectuals stamped out of the party stating in a note that “Brazilian society does not know what the Network thinks, nor can it situate it in the ideological political spectrum.” Marina Silva does not propose an economic plan that contributes to overcome the present crisis and to promote the resumption of development. The crisis that affects Brazil would deepen with the rise to power of Marina Silva.
Ciro Gomes, who is center-left, already has a set of proposals with which, as he says, Brazil will celebrate a “national development project”. For Ciro Gomes, the development project he defends aims to overcome misery. To reach it, the tactic is to industrialize the country. Another is the industrial health complex, to get the country out of international dependence on drugs, equipment, prostheses, diagnostic technology – many of which, he said, with patent-pending. And lastly the defense industrial complex. Ciro Gomes affirms that he will reduce the interest rate constantly to a global level and that he will propose a change project in the tax system. Ciro Gomes proposes a strategy that contributes to the reduction of the public debt that is the main economic problem faced by Brazil. One of the first measures, he said, would be the repeal of FHC’s unbelievable bill that repealed taxation on profits and dividends. The crisis that affects Brazil could be solved with the rise to power of Ciro Gomes because he is the only candidate who has a consistent plan to overcome the crisis and to promote the development for Brazil.
Geraldo Alckmin, who is center-right, is threatened by allegations of corruption against members of his party (PSDB), especially those that weigh against Senator Aécio Neves. Alckmin was also accused of receiving $ 10 million in undeclared Odebrecht amounts, which he denies. The Alckmim candidacy represents the continuity of neoliberalism as an antisocial and antinational economic policy inaugurated in Brazil by the FHC government in the 1990s, also implemented by the governments Lula, Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer. The neoliberal economic policy of an Alckmim government would further aggravate Brazil’s economic and social situation. Geraldo Alckmim does not point out concrete solutions that will overcome the current crisis. The crisis that affects Brazil would deepen with the rise to power of Geraldo Alckmin.
The PT candidate who would take the place of Lula, who is center-left, would weigh against him the fact that the PT governments have contributed to the catastrophic economic, political and social situation and to the systemic corruption experienced by Brazil today. The focus of the PT candidate’s platform is to increase credit for production and consumption in order to reduce the number of unemployed. Among the proposals that the PT summit defends to face the crisis are the creation of a Development and Employment Fund, a 20% increase in the values of the Bolsa Família Program and a real increase in the minimum wage, in addition to the correction of the Income Tax table , with ceiling of exemption superior to the current one. The PT candidate would try to reactivate the Brazilian economy and increase the supply of jobs with public investment with the use of international reserves and the increase of credit for production and consumption. The PT does not propose, however, any strategy that contributes to the reduction of the public debt that is the main economic problem faced by Brazil. The PT does not propose changes in the economic model that would continue under the aegis of neoliberalism, nor does it point to concrete solutions that could contribute to overcoming the current crisis and promoting the resumption of development.
Considering the fact that Brazil, as an economic, social and political organization, finds itself in disintegration whose signs are evident in all parts of the Country and that the current economic stagnation tends to worsen in Brazil with the increase of unemployment and the reduction of state revenues which may make it unfeasible its capacity of intervening in the economy, the election of a President of the Republic who is unable to overcome the current crisis and reactivate the Brazilian economy can lead the country to social upheaval. To avoid this scenario, it´s necessary to elect a President of the Republic who have conditions to increase the capacity of the Brazilian government and political institutions in general to offer effective responses to overcoming the political, economic and social crisis which affect the Brazilian nation. Without the solution of these problems, the country may be convulsed and chaos may settle in Brazil with the increase of demonstrations of the population in the streets and the presence of right and left militias to fight against their opponents.
Just as the far-right SA (extreme right-wing Nazis) and extreme left communist paramilitary groups emerged and confronted with extreme violence in Germany during the Weimar Republic after World War I, which contributed to the rise of Nazism, the same can happen in Brazil after the 2018 elections if elected a President of the Republic that does not carry out the political, economic and social reforms necessary to overcome the current crisis and the resumption of development. Violence by right-wing and left-wing militias could create an atmosphere of social upheaval that would provide the necessary justification for a coup d’état to be sponsored in Brazil aimed at maintaining political, economic and social order. The only scenario that would prevent the triggering of violence between left and right with the consequent establishment of a dictatorship is the election of a President of the Republic committed to the majority of the population and having a well-designed development plan that is that of the candidate Ciro Gomes.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.
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