Fernando Alcoforado *
In a Presidential Republic such as Brazil, effective governability is achieved when the executive branch has the support of the majority of the Parliament, the economically dominant classes and broad sectors of civil society. These are the conditions for a government to exercise Governability which, in short, expresses the possibility of the government of a nation to carry out public policies with the support of Parliament, the productive sectors and the population. Governance, on the other hand, is related to the financial and administrative capacity of the government of a national State and the competence of its managers to practice public policies. Governance is to transform the governmental act into public action, articulating the actions of the government at all levels and with Civil Society. Without Governability conditions, an adequate Governance is impossible.
There is a risk that the presidential elections in Brazil will lead to the power of right-wing extremist Jair Bolsonaro or center-left Fernando Haddad. It is quite clear that right-wing political forces consider Haddad’s rise to power that would mean the return of the PT and its allies to the Brazilian government to be unacceptable, and the left-wing political forces, especially the radical ones, find the right in power unacceptable, especially if Bolsonaro win the presidential elections. The country may be convulsed in these circumstances. This means that neither Bolsonaro nor Haddad will acquire the conditions of governability. Bolsonaro can count on the support of economically dominant classes, but it will not have the decisive support of broad sectors of civil society. Haddad will be able to count on the support of broad sectors of civil society, but will not have the support of the economically dominant classes. They are deceived those who think that governability can be achieved only with the support of the majority in Parliament.
History has proven that, from the confrontation between the forces of left and right, the implantation of dictatorships, respectively, of left or right, can result. To illustrate, the confrontation between left and right forces in tsarist Russia in 1917, China in 1949 and in Cuba in 1959 resulted in the establishment of left-wing dictatorships. This confrontation between the forces of left and right in Italy and Germany after World War I resulted respectively in the fascist and Nazi right-wing dictatorships, in Spain in 1936 resulted in the dictatorship of General Franco and in Chile in 1973 resulted the dictatorship of General Pinochet. In Brazil, after the so-called Communist Intent in 1935, Getúlio Vargas gave a self-coup in 1937 with the establishment of the Estado Novo right-wing dictatorship, and the João Goulart government was overthrown in 1964, resulting in a 21-year right-wing military dictatorship . The victory of Bolsonaro or Haddad would cause Brazil to be convulsed with the outbreak of political violence between left and right.
Just as the SA (right-wing Nazi militias) and left-wing communist paramilitary groups emerged and confronted with extreme violence in Germany during the Weimar Republic after World War I, the same can happen in Brazil after the 2018 elections with the victory of Bolsonaro or Haddad. The violence that may be practiced by right-wing and left-wing supporters could create an atmosphere of social upheaval that would provide the necessary justification for sponsoring a new coup d´état in Brazil aimed at maintaining political, economic and social order.
Those who think that Brazil can be immune to the political-institutional rupture now or in the future are totally mistaken. The confrontation between the extreme right and the extreme left in the struggle for power always happens in times of deep economic crisis like what happens in Brazil today when there are clashes between social classes in the presence where some of them seek to maintain their privileges and others seek a place in the sun. The facts of history demonstrate that when the economic crisis deepens, the crisis of governability materializes with the paralysis of the government that can occur in Brazil after the elections of 2018 produced to a large extent by the struggle between the political forces of right and left which may result in a civil war followed by the establishment of a right-wing or left-wing dictatorship. The greatest possibility is that a right-wing dictatorship is implanted either with Bolsonaro’s victory to keep him in power and Haddad’s victory after overthrowing him.
This scenario must be avoided by the Brazilian population that defends democracy and opposes the dictatorship in Brazil rejecting the candidacies of Bolsonaro and Haddad and by voting in the presidential elections in one of the candidates that has the capacity to bring together the Brazilian nation around a common project of political development , economic and social and to avoid the political conflagration in Brazil with the consequent implantation of a dictatorship of right or left.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, holder of the CONFEA / CREA System Medal of Merit, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.
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