Fernando Alcoforado *
The film “Egg of the Serpent” (1977) by Ingmar Bergman is the best cinematic reproduction of the emergence of Nazism in Germany. This film portrayed with very fidelity the first steps of German society, which, already divided, would come into the hands of Nazism from 1933. Bergman constructs with impeccable richness of details the bloody, paranoid and unstable world that was Germany of 1923, year in who will spend his film in the period from 3 to 11 November, the week of the Munich Putsch. The struggle for survival and fear accompany the faltering actions of a decomposing society.
In the film “The Egg of the Serpent” one could already see, ten years before the rise of the Nazis to power, a ghost prowling Germany and assume that amid the disorder, the economic crisis and the political vacuum, a seed of radicalism and violence was about to emerge. In “The Egg of the Serpent,” Bergman undertakes a work endowed with a strong social-critical sense and a memorable exposition of history showing a society that lived under fear and denounces the “reasons why” the dark future would arise. Often in the egg of the serpent was used as a metaphor to express the finding of an evil in the process of elaboration, in incubation. In it, in the development of the egg of the serpent, one can follow the slow and inexorable evolution of the monster that is being created, Nazism.
It is quite similar the events that occurred in Germany before the rise to power by Nazism the current political events in Brazil. The advance of fascism in Brazil results from the fact that economic, social and political organization finds itself in complete disintegration, of the inability of the Brazilian government and political institutions in general to offer effective answers to overcome the recessive economic crisis in which the nation is and to stem the unbridled corruption in all the powers of the Republic and the fear of broad sectors of the Brazilian society of the return of the PT (Workers Party)to the power in the next presidential elections. In Germany a dark figure appeared, Adolf Hitler, who reached the power, implanted the Nazi dictatorship and took the country to the destruction with the triggering of World War II. In Brazil, an obscure figure emerged, Jair Bolsonaro, who can reach power in the next elections, intends to establish a fascist dictatorship and, certainly, will lead the country to civil war.
Bolsonaro intends to establish a fascist dictatorship in Brazil because his speech is based on the explicit cult of order, state violence, authoritarian government practices, social contempt for vulnerable and fragile groups, and anti-communism. The Bolsonaro danger lies in oppression, machismo, homophobia, racism, hatred of the poor. Bolsonaro’s government proposal is typically fascist. Bolsonaro’s rise to power is already counting on the support of Brazil’s conservative elite. History tells us that once this alliance between the conservative elite and the fascists is formed and succeeds in pursuit of power, there is no longer any way to stop it. This occurred in Nazi Germany and may be repeated in Brazil. The alliance between the conservative elite and the fascists can destroy the last vestiges of a democratic government in Brazil.
Since bringing the neoliberal economist Paulo Guedes to his campaign, Bolsonaro has been enthusiastic about the idea of selling all state properties, defending the independence of the Central Bank and seeking approval of the reforms supported by the banking sector. Bolsonaro won great support from the population in Brazil saying that in the Presidency of the Republic would loosen the restrictions on firearms and give more power to the police. Authorities should have more lethal weapons, according to Bolsonaro, who argues that those who kill criminals should receive medals and not go to trial. Bolsonaro’s great appeal to the general public is related to his anti-Portuguese opposition, his anger against the traditional politicians and against corruption. Electoral research shows that he is supported mainly by men of the middle class and the upper bourgeoisie.
There is a risk that the presidential elections in Brazil will lead to the power of right-wing extremist Jair Bolsonaro or center-left Fernando Haddad. It is quite clear that right-wing political forces consider Haddad’s rise to power that would mean the return of the PT and its allies to the Brazilian government to be unacceptable, and the left-wing political forces, especially the radical ones, find the right in power unacceptable, especially if Bolsonaro win the presidential elections. The country may be convulsed in these circumstances. This means that neither Bolsonaro nor Haddad will acquire the conditions of governability. Bolsonaro can count on the support of economically dominant classes, but it will not have the decisive support of broad sectors of civil society. Haddad will be able to count on the support of broad sectors of civil society, but will not have the support of the economically dominant classes. Those who think that governability can be achieved only with the support of the majority in Parliament are deceived.
Just as the SA (right-wing Nazi militias) and left-wing communist paramilitary groups emerged and confronted extreme violence in Germany during the Weimar Republic after World War I, the same can happen in Brazil after the 2018 elections with the victory of Bolsonaro or Haddad. The violence that may be practiced by right-wing and left-wing supporters may create an atmosphere of social upheaval that would provide the necessary justification for sponsoring a new coup d´état in Brazil aimed at maintaining political and social order.
Those who think that Brazil can be immune to the political-institutional rupture now or in the future are totally mistaken. The confrontation between the extreme right and the extreme left in the struggle for power always happens in times of deep economic crisis like the one that occurs in Brazil today when there are clashes between social classes in the presence in which some of them seek to maintain their privileges and others seek a place in the sun. The facts of history show that when the economic crisis deepens, the crisis of governability happen with the paralysis of the government that can occur in Brazil after the elections of 2018 produced to a great extent by the struggle between the political forces of right and left which may result in a civil war followed by the establishment of a right-wing dictatorship. The greatest possibility is that a right-wing dictatorship is implanted either with Bolsonaro’s victory to keep him in power and Haddad’s after overthrowing him.
The only way to avoid the escalation of fascism and the establishment of a right-wing dictatorship in Brazil is the formation of a broad antifascist front, supporting the best candidate to defeat the fascist forces that support Bolsonaro in the upcoming presidential elections. Electoral polls indicate that Ciro Gomes is the candidate who is able to defeat Bolsonaro in the second round of presidential elections. It is in the hands of the voters of Geraldo Alckmin and Marina Silva to transfer their votes to Ciro Gomes and / or these candidates to support Ciro Gomes so that he defeats Fernando Haddad in the first round and is able to face Jair Bolsonaro in the second round. This would be the solution that could prevent Bolsonaro’s victory in the presidential elections and the overthrow of Haddad after his rise to power with the establishment of a fascist dictatorship in Brazil. This scenario must be avoided by the Brazilian population that defends democracy and is against the fascist dictatorship in Brazil.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, holder of the CONFEA / CREA System Medal of Merit, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.
Site Title 