Fernando Alcoforado *
Abstract – The purpose of this article is to emphasize the imperative need of the 3rd Energy Revolution in the world aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, to avoid the catastrophic global climate change, as well as to present Brazil’s contribution in this regard.
Keywords – Bases of the 3rd Energy Revolution in the world. The 3rd Energy Revolution in Brazil.
- Bases of the 3rd Energy Revolution in the world
In the second half of the eighteenth century, the first energy revolution in the world occurred in England with the use of coal in substitution of the wood that was used up to that time. The 1st energy revolution occurred simultaneously with the advent of the 1st Industrial Revolution. Equipped with a calorific power far superior to the fuels used until then, the coal provided much higher energy for the same volume, besides being easier and cheaper to transport it. The development of coal mines and the invention of the steam engine gave birth to a new economy in Europe and the West.
The steam engine drives the machines in the factories, the locomotives in the first railroads, and the ships that replace the sailboats. People, commodities, capital, and ideas begin to circulate at a hitherto unknown speed. Quickly a new environment of openness with the emergence of the first metropolis and changes in social organization. The first energy revolution was confined to Europe, initially in Britain and then in the European continent and then in the United States in the early twentieth century.
The 2nd energy revolution, which coincided with the 2nd Industrial Revolution, occurred with the advent of oil and electricity. The use of oil as an energy source in the world began in the United States with the exploration of the first well in 1901 in Texas. Just as the steam engine was the determining factor for the advent of coal as an energy source, the internal combustion engine played the same role with the advent of oil. The discovery of an energetic vector such as electricity and the invention of electric machines in the nineteenth century together with the introduction of automotive vehicles paved the way for the introduction of the modern consumer society, characterized by an energy intensity never seen in the history of mankind .
In one way or another, all human activities on Earth have caused changes in the environment in which we live. Many of these environmental impacts are derived from the generation, handling and use of energy that is responsible for 57% of the emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as indicated in Table 1 below:
Table 1 – Main causes of greenhouse effect in the atmosphere
| Factors responsible for greenhouse effect | Contribution (%) |
| Energy use and production | 57 |
| Chlorine Fluorine Carbon | 17 |
| Agricultural practices | 14 |
| Deforestation | 9 |
| Other industrial activities | 3 |
Source: LASHOF, D.A., & TIRPAK, D.A., 1990.
The significant contribution of the use and production of energy in the emission of greenhouse gases can be seen with the high participation in 2015 in the world energy matrix of non-renewable energy sources (oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear), which corresponded approximately , to 86% of the world’s energy matrix, with only 14% renewable resources, while in Brazil the share of non-renewable energy sources corresponded to 56% and renewable sources to 44% of the Brazilian energy matrix, according to data of EPE – Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, an agency linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
This huge dependence on non-renewable energy sources has led to the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, which in 1973 amounted to 16.2 billion tons per year and 1998 was around 23 billion tons, roughly twice the amount emitted in 1965 (ALCOFORADO, 2015). If the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) energy supply projections are confirmed, the value of carbon emissions is expected to rise to 58 billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2020 if nothing is done (VEJA, 2011). As a consequence of the use of fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas) in the use and production of energy, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has steadily increased, leading many experts to believe that the increase in the average temperature of the terrestrial biosphere, which has been observed for some decades, occurs due to the “Greenhouse Effect” caused by this increase of CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere.
If there is no immediate reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases, the means of adaptation that will be used will not suffice and life on the planet will be threatened. Climate change will leave no part of the earth intact. If there is no reduction of climate change, scientists predict severe and irreversible impacts on mankind and ecosystems. Livelihoods will be interrupted by storms, flooding from rising sea levels that can submerge many islands, coastal countries and cities, and periods of extreme drought and extreme heat throughout the world. Extreme weather events can lead to the breakdown of infrastructure networks and services. There is a risk of food insecurity, lack of water, loss of agricultural production and income, particularly in poorer populations.
Brazil and the world are facing a challenge that is not to allow a global warming in the 21st century higher than two degrees Celsius. To avoid global warming above 2 °C, carbon dioxide concentrations would have to be prevented from reaching the projected 58 billion tons per year by 2020 and stabilizing them at 44 billion tons without which the world would face until the end of the 21st century with catastrophic climate change that could threaten the survival of mankind. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a gigantic challenge. It is enough to consider that the International Energy Agency (IEA), in designing recent trends, forecasts a 50% increase in energy demand by 2030, with continued dependence on fossil fuels if nothing is done. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that “the world will be headed for an unsustainable energy future” if governments do not take “urgent measures” to optimize available resources (VEJA, 2011).
In order to avoid catastrophic climate change, it is necessary, among other measures, to carry forward the third energy revolution in the world, which should contemplate the adoption of solutions that contribute to eliminate or mitigate the causes of the greenhouse effect, that is, to eliminate or reduce the fossil fuel consumption in energy production, transport, industry, agriculture, and cities (residences and trade) by replacing them with renewable energy sources and increasing energy efficiency, given that the use and production of fossil fuels account for 57% of the greenhouse gases emitted by human activity. The 3rd energy revolution will result from the deployment of a sustainable energy system on a planetary scale.
The 3rd energy revolution fundamentally means maximizing global renewable energy production and minimizing non-renewable energy sources that are essential to achieving a sustainable energy system in the future. This will require the use of biomass and hydroelectric power, solar, wind, geothermal and tidal energy worldwide. This historic transition of energies will only occur with fundamental changes in the energy policy of the vast majority of countries. A sustainable energy system will only be possible if energy efficiency is greatly improved.
- The 3rd Energy Revolution in Brazil
In order to optimize the energy resources available in Brazil, it is necessary to carry out an energy revolution that contributes to the reduction of the sources of energy responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases, as is the case of coal, oil and natural gas with the use of renewable sources of energy (solar, wind and biomass) and with the adoption of energy efficiency measures
2.1- The energy revolution in the Brazilian electric sector
The Brazilian electricity sector uses 18.3% of non-renewable sources of energy (coal, oil products, natural gas and nuclear) in electricity generation, while it uses 81.7% of renewable energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal , tide, biomass and hydraulics). The optimization of resources in the electricity sector would require the adoption of measures proposed by Greenpeace based on the Energy Revolution Scenario 2050, which considers that 88% of electricity produced in Brazil would come from renewable energy sources (GREENPEACE, 2010). The planned electricity generation would be 1077 TWh / year and there would be an energy savings of 413 TWh / year through energy efficiency measures. The Energy Revolution package proposed by Greenpeace excludes the generation of electricity from fuel oil, diesel, coal and also nuclear. This proposal is presented in Table 2 below:
Table 2- Total generation: 1077 TWh / year; Energy efficiency: 413 TWh / year
| Power supply | % |
| Hydropower | 38 |
| Natural gas | 12 |
| Biomass and waste | 26 |
| Wind | 20 |
| Nuclear | 0 |
| Diesel and Fuel Oil | 0 |
| Coal | 0 |
| Photovoltaic panels | 4 |
| Total | 100 |
Source: Greenpeace, 2010.
2.2- The energy revolution in the oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear sectors of Brazil
The share of non-renewable energy sources (oil and by-products, coal, natural gas, nuclear and other non-renewable sources) in the Brazilian energy matrix corresponded in 2015 to 56% of the total and renewable sources (hydro, cane derivatives, firewood, charcoal and other renewable resources) to 44% of the total. For the coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear sectors, all the solutions that lead to the reduction of its consumption with its substitution by renewable sources of energy should be adopted. In this sense, it is necessary to perform the following: 1) replacement of gasoline for ethanol and diesel by biodiesel in the short term in the transport sector; 2) replacement of gasoline and diesel by hydrogen in the medium and long term in the transport sector; 3) replacement of fuel oil by natural gas and biomass in industry; 4) replacement of coal by natural gas in industry; 5) replacement of diesel oil by biomass and natural gas in energy generation; 6) replacement of LPG by natural gas in the residential and service sectors; and 7) use of solar and wind energy instead of conventional nuclear and thermoelectric power using coal and petroleum products. The use of natural gas as a substitute for coal and petroleum products is due to the fact that it is the least polluting of fossil fuels.
In addition, it is imperative to adopt energy policies in Brazil with a view to implementing programs that contribute to reducing oil consumption through energy saving measures. These policies are as follows: 1) to produce steam and electricity in the industry with the use of cogeneration systems; 2) to encourage automakers and trucks to increase the efficiency of motor vehicles to save energy; (3) expanding rail and waterway systems to transport cargo in lieu of trucks; 4) to expand the collective transportation system, especially high-capacity mass transport such as the subway or VLT to reduce car use in cities; 5) restricting the use of automobiles in city centers and other areas of cities; 6) encourage the manufacture of electric cars; and 7) to manufacture machines and equipment of greater efficiency to save energy.
REFERENCES
ALCOFORADO, Energia no Mundo e no Brasil. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2015.
EPE. Matriz Energética e Elétrica. Disponível no website <http://www.epe.gov.br/pt/abcdenergia/matriz-energetica-e-eletrica>.
LASHOF, D. A., & TIRPAK, D. A. Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. New York: Hemisphere Publishing, 1990.
GREENPEACE. [R]evolução energética. Disponível no website < http://greenpeace.org.br/revolucao/>.
_____________. [R]evolução energética- A caminho do desenvolvimento limpo. Disponível no website <http://www.greenpeace.org/brasil/Global/brasil/report/2010/11/revolucaoenergeticadeslimpo.PDF>, 2010.
_____________. Investimento em energias renováveis pode gerar economia de US$ 180 bilhões por ano. Disponível no website < http://www.greenpeace.org/brasil/pt/Noticias/investimento-em-energias-renov/>, 2007.
VEJA. AIE: mundo se encaminha para futuro energético insustentável. Disponível no website <https://veja.abril.com.br/economia/aie-diz-que-mundo-se-encaminha-para-futuro-energetico-insustentavel/>, 2011.
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