Fernando Alcoforado*
After several years of negotiations, impasses, timid advances and failures, 195 countries and the European Union produced at COP 21 in Paris a global agreement that defines how humanity will fight global warming in the coming decades. For the first time, every country in the world commits itself to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience (ability to return to its natural state, especially after a critical and unusual situation) and to unite in a common cause to climate change. The agreement has no legal character for all goals, as the majority wanted.
The COP 21 agreement consists of a 31-page document. It contains a 12-page text, the Paris Accord, and a decision detailing how the agreement will be implemented. Together, the two documents form a sort of manual of reorientation of the world economy. They signal, albeit in a very preliminary way, that the bundle of emissions of greenhouse gases must come to an end sometime in the 21st century. To the optimists, the deal represents the end of the era of fossil fuels.
The stated aim of the Paris Agreement is to contain the global average temperature rise by well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to make efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels , recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. The reference to the target of 1.5 °C came about thanks to the joint action of the island countries, which will be condemned to extinction in the long term by the rise in sea level resulting from a warming of 2 °C.
As the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets presented are unable to hold the temperature to the required level, it has been decided that adjustments will need to be made every five years, starting in 2023. These adjustments would need a was considered in the text of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Accord also envisages that rich countries commit to disbursing at least US$ 100 billion a year from 2020 for emission reduction projects in emerging countries and confirms that developing countries can expand the donor base in the future, even if on a voluntary basis.
At COP 24 held recently in Katowice, Poland, 197 countries agreed to the so-called “rulebook” that will govern the fight against global warming in the coming decades. The Paris Agreement establishes that each country’s commitments to reduce greenhouse gases – so-called “national contributions” – are voluntary. The final agreement includes a reference to an IPCC scientific report that calls for the importance of the “urgent and unprecedented” commitment to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. However, an eight-page decision has been criticized by some countries and ecological groups for not insisting on greater ambitions on emissions cuts enough to contain the rising temperatures.
Two key aspects were not considered in the Paris Agreement: (1) the long-term goal of decarbonizing the economy by 2050 or cutting at least 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-21st century; and 2) the temperature target is not accompanied by a road map telling how the world intends to reduce the overall average temperature of 2 °C or 1.5 °C, which weakens the pursuit of that target. In other words, COP 21 has produced an agreement that is, in practice, a mere letter of intent.
It is therefore perceived that the Paris Agreement does not solve the fundamental issues, and the voluntary targets indicated by each of the nations are not enough to ensure that global warming is well below 2 degrees Celsius towards 1, 5 degree Celsius by the year 2100. Moreover, the document is silent in not presenting proposals that contribute to the construction of a model of sustainable development on our planet in place of the unsustainable current model of existing capitalist development.
To change this situation and put an end to the constant climate change that threatens to destroy our planet and humanity, it is necessary to promote a deep transformation of the current society. The unsustainability of the current model of capitalist development is evident, since it has been extremely destructive of living conditions on the planet. Faced with this, it is imperative to replace the current dominant economic model throughout the world with another that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. This was not considered at COP 21.
Another issue not addressed at COP 21 concerns wars, which is also largely responsible for the planet’s environmental aggravation, which is proliferating throughout the world. Among the countless dire consequences of wars are the devastating effects on the environment. The bombing of military targets and civilian populations, the intense movement of military vehicles and troops, the great concentration of combat flights, the missiles thrown over cities and the destruction of military and industrial structures during all these conflicts also provoke the emission of metals and other substances that contaminate soil, water and air. In addition to environmental contamination, it is also necessary to consider the modification of natural landscapes and the loss of biodiversity in the long term, either by the presence of landmines or chemical agents dispersed in the environment. This was also not considered at COP 21.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that the Paris Agreement is also silent on the construction of a system of governance on the planet that is capable of ensuring the reorganization of the world economy that is leading the world to depression, of the planet’s environment threatened by catastrophic climate change and of international relations that worsen every day fueling the proliferation of wars. Faced with these serious omissions of COP 21, it can be said that we will hardly succeed in trying to avoid catastrophic changes in the climate of planet Earth in the 21st century.
Katie Reilly reports that the UN IPCC Report warns that sufficiently limiting man-made global warming “will require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” in order to avoid dramatic global consequences, including rising sea levels, the death of coral reefs and human victims due to extreme heat. The special report – published by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – assessed what will be needed to limit global temperature increase to no more than 2.7 °F (1.5 °C) above pre-industrial levels, according to the Paris Accord of 2015. Scientists consider that temperature is a turning point in which many severe effects of global warming will be perceived (REILLY, Katie. the New UN Report. Available on the website <http://time.com/5418577/what-humanity-of-limit-climate-change/>, 2018).
The special UN report shows that “examples of actions include shifting to low- or zero-emission power generation, such as renewables; changing food systems, such as dietary changes away from land-intensive animal products; electrifying transport and developing ‘green infrastructure’, such as building green roofs, or improving energy efficiency by smart urban planning, which will change the layout of many cities. The report called climate change “an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet,” and warned that delayed action would make it impossible to limit warming to 2.7 °F (1.5 °C). “While the pace of change that would be required to limit warming to [2.7 °F] can be found in the past, there is no historical precedent for the scale of the necessary transitions, particularly in a socially and economically sustainable way” the report stated. “Resolving such speed and scale issues would require people’s support, public-sector interventions and private-sector cooperation”.
Reilly reports what the UN report presents as some changes that will need to be made in order to stop the current pace of global warming:
- Reduce carbon emissions by 45%
By 2030, global carbon dioxide emissions should be 45% less than they were in 2010, the report found. And carbon dioxide emissions must reach net zero around 2075 meaning the amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere equals the amount being removed. By 2050, emissions from other heat-trapping greenhouse gasses, including methane and carbon black, should be reduced by 35%, relative to the 2010 rate. Emissions would need to decline rapidly across all of society’s main sectors, including buildings, industry, transport, energy, and agriculture, forestry and other land use.
- Remove carbon dioxide from the air
In addition to reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the reported carbon dioxide removal measures including planting new trees and carbon capture and storage, the process by which carbon dioxide is trapped and prevented from entering the atmosphere. Most current and potential [carbon dioxide removal] measures could have significant impacts on land, energy, water, or nutrients if deployed at large scale.
- Use 85% renewable energy and stop using coal entirely
The report recommended far-reaching changes to land use, urban planning, infrastructure systems and energy use — changes that will be “unprecedented in terms of scale”. Climate scientists said renewable energy sources will have to account for 70% to 85% of electricity production by 2050. The use of coal should decrease steeply and should account for close to 0% of global electricity, and gas just 8%. While acknowledging the challenges, and differences between the options and national circumstances, political, economic, social and technical feasibility of solar energy, wind energy and electricity storage technologies have substantially improved over the past few years, the report stated. These improvements signal a potential system transition in electricity generation.
- Plant new forests equal to the size of Canada
Scientists recommend that up to about 3 million square miles of pasture and up to 1.9 million square miles of non-pasture agricultural land be converted into up to 2.7 million square miles for energy crops, which can be used to make biofuels. That would amount to land a little less than the size of Australia. The report also recommends adding 3.9 million square miles of forests by 2050, relative to 2010 — which is roughly the size of Canada.
“Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements, food, livestock feed, fibre, bioenergy, carbon storage, biodiversity and other ecosystem services”, the report stated. Mitigation options limiting the demand for land include sustainable intensification of land use practices, ecosystem restoration and changes towards less resource-intensive diets.
Jonathan Watts (2018) reports that “the world’s leading climate scientists have been warned there is only two years of global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 °C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. ” Watts claims that the authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitious end of the Paris Agreement pledge to keep temperatures between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to the 1.5 °C study, which was launched after approval at the final plenary of all 195 countries in Incheon in South Korea that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears.
Watts (2018) states that policymakers commissioned the report at the Paris climate talks in 2016, but since then the gap between science and politics has widened. Donald Trump has promised to withdraw the US – the world’s largest source of historical emissions – from the Paris Agreement. The Brazil’s presidential election put Jair Bolsonaro in a strong position to carry out his threat to withdraw Brazil from the Paris Agreement and also open the Amazon rainforest to agribusiness.
The UN report shows that the world is currently 1 °C warmer than preindustrial levels. Following devastating hurricanes in the US, record droughts in Cape Town and forest fires in the Arctic, the IPCC makes clear that climate change is already happening, upgraded its risk warning from previous reports, and warned that every fraction of warming would worsen the impact . The report was presented to governments at the UN climate conference in Poland. At the current level of commitments, the world is on course for a disastrous 3 °C of warming. The UN report authors are refusing to accept defeat, believing the visible damage caused by climate change will shift their way. Climate change is occurring earlier and more rapidly than expected. This report is really important. It has a scientific robustness that shows 1.5 °C is not just a political concession. There is a growing recognition that 2 °C is dangerous.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 79, holder of the CONFEA / CREA System Medal of Merit, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 14 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.
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