Fernando Alcoforado*
The website <https://www.esmaelmorais.com.br/2019/03/bolsonaro-pode-dar-golpe-para-fechar-congresso-e-supremo-diz-capelli/> informs in the article Bolsonaro pode dar golpe para fechar Congresso e Supremo, diz Capelli (Bolsonaro can give coup to close Congress and Supreme, says Capelli) that the journalist Ricardo Cappelli makes a serious warning to the Brazilian democrats that Bolsonaro thinks to give coup with support of the military to close the National Congress and the Federal Supreme Court. Ricardo Cappelli questions what political analysts have come to affirm in recent days saying that Bolsonaro is “crazy,” “inept,” a “no notion”. Cappelli asks: Is it true?
Cappelli suggests following the signs described below. First sign: Minister of Justice Moro is annoyed by Speaker of the House of Representatives Maia’s decision to postpone the analysis of his anticrime package. Makes charges. Maia reacts by calling Moro “Bolsonaro employee” and disqualifying the “copy and paste” of anticrime package from the justice minister. What does Moro do? He drops a note and doubles the attack on Congress: “Perhaps some understand that the fight against crime can be postponed indefinitely, but the Brazilian people cannot take it anymore.” Carlos Bolsonaro comes out in the defense of the former judge and attacks Maia in the networks.
Second sign: Temer is arrested. According to Bolsonaro, “political agreements made in the name of governability” led Michel Temer and Moreira Franco to prison. The arrest of the former president is accompanied by an offensive in the networks against the Supreme Court. It was an obvious – again arbitrary and illegal – reaction from the Lava Jet to its recent Supreme Court defeat. The “Republic of Curitiba” decided to show who is in charge. Third sign: Accompanying Bolsonaro abroad, Felipe Martins, advisor to the presidency of the Republic, is clear and direct. He defends in the networks the union of the anti-establishment wing of the government, the popular mobilization, the “breaking old politics” and Lava Jato. Fourth Signal: Concern signals appear in the barracks. Circulates the information that the Minister of Defense, considered as moderate, decided to award Deltan Dallagnol promoter of Lava Jato Operation of Curitiba.
Cappelli says that the proposed reform of the military’s pension is a piece of fiction. The economy of 1 billion a year is ridiculous. The proposal is accompanied by a reorganization of the careers, privileging the graduates. Careless? Trouble? The market is terrified of the street fight between Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia. The crisis increases. They demonized politics and destabilized democracy. They expected what? Cappelli asks: Does the Captain Bolsonaro vote in Congress? Do the generals vote? The MPF (Federal Public Ministry) votes? Whose constitutional duty is it to pass laws? The executive sends the proposal, but who votes? The National Congress of course.
Bolsonaro said he would not like to do Social Security reform. The military are against. The Lava Jato corporations, elite of the civil service, ditto. Cappelli asks: how about rising unemployment, the rising misery and the guilt of chaos being attributed to politicians who only think about their own interests and STF (Supreme Court) ministers who “live to release corrupts people”? The defeat of Social Security reform in the National Congress and the financial chaos that tends to deepen in Brazil may be the “final pretext” to close the National Congress and the Federal Supreme Court, according to Cappelli. For Cappelli, the alliance between the Olavo-Bannon in the United States, military and Lava Jato gangs is emulating the STF and the National Congress. Rodrigo Maia has not yet realized that he and his friends of the Centrão are the next in the queue of Dr. Bretas, the judge who had Temer and Moreira Franco arrested.
I agree with Cappelli that if the reform does not pass, the alliance among the market and the major media groups will try to overthrow Bolsonaro. The Captain will react. It may even fall discarded as undesirable excess, but no country resists such instability. Staying or falling, in the face of chaos, the conditions for a democratic closure will be given in Brazil. Cappelli thinks Bolsonaro is being coherent. He has notion of what he does. He came to destroy a political system defined as “old and rotten.” I agree with Cappelli that the gravity of the moment demands that the partisans of democracy articulate themselves in order to avoid their overthrow in Brazil.
The website <https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/colunistas/mario-vitor-rodrigues/e-se-o-quanto-pior-melhor-desta-vez-fizer-parte-do-plano/> presents the article E se o “quanto pior, melhor”, desta vez, fizer parte do plano? (And what if the “the worse, the better,” this time, it’s part of the plan?) elaborated by the writer and political analyst Mario Vitor Rodrigues in which he affirms that “not even three months have passed since the possession and a disconcerting suspicion begins to gain body in relation to the new government: and if he, while he acts under the disguise of the amateurism, assuming Spectacular attitudes, in the background work in favor of chaos? What if, other than his incapacities and his aversion to protocols, bolsonarism encourages confusion to boost his project of power?”
Mario Vitor Rodrigues affirms that the position adopted by the president and his children imposes this questioning. Rodrigues says that “it no longer makes sense to admit the thesis that Carlos Bolsonaro acts in defiance of his father in his attacks on important components and allies of the government.” But nothing has overcome the recent confrontation with Rodrigo Maia and with the National Congress itself, which, in practice, would make it difficult to approve the Social Security reform. Rodrigues affirms that “it is not a question here of regretting the harangue just because it is gratuitous or because it involves just Maia, perhaps the person with the greatest capacity to sew support for the reform of Social Security with whom Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, can count today”.
Rodrigues considers that this confrontation with Maia extrapolated the limits of common sense, even considering it to be a government full of unwary, carelessness and insistence with words. As well as shocked the subsequent speech of Bolsonaro, exempting itself of responsibility for the approval of the reform of the Social Security, in this way, trying to pass the account to the political class. For if he extrapolates and shocks, perhaps it is because we do not consider Bolsonaro’s plan precisely, in partnership with a radical group that seems to dictate norms in his government by the poisoning of public debate: the bet on anarchy.
Rodrigues says that it is symptomatic that so early the current administration raises fears that it may become one of the worst in the recent history of the Republic since this government can not get around the fact that it brings together people who are simply incompatible with the positions they occupy . And Rodrigues refers not only to the president, but also to his children and the good part of the ministry. This perception is already reflected in public opinion polls, even though most of the voters voted against the PT and not exactly in favor of Bolsonaro.
The objective of the Bolsonaro government would therefore be the conquest of total power by closing the Legislative and Judiciary powers to put into practice its fascist government project. The escalation of fascism is already a concrete fact in Brazil, widespread, rooted and may become irreversible in Brazil at the present moment if there is no resistance. The only way to avoid the escalation of fascism and the establishment of an extreme right-wing dictatorship in Brazil is the formation of an anti-fascist democratic front in the Parliament and in Civil Society to defend the Constitution of 1988 and to fight against the acts of the Bolsonaro government that are contrary interests of the vast majority of the population and of Brazil.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 79, holder of the CONFEA / CREA System Medal of Engineering Merit, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of 14 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that Changed the World.
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