Fernando Alcoforado*
Former President Lula was released from the illegal prison based on the correct decision of the Federal Supreme Court on November 7th in the light of the Federal Constitution which provides that any citizen should only be imprisoned after being tried in all instances of the Justice. Lula’s release from prison, however, has numerous consequences immediate and for the political future of Brazil.
The release of Lula has two immediate consequences: 1) Bolsonaro’s supporters, who were in blatant conflict with each other, will again articulate more decisively in the fight against the common enemy (Lula, PT and their allies); and, 2) Lula’s supporters, who were inert by the absence of their leader, will again articulate more decisively in the struggle against the Bolsonaro government. This means that there will be a political polarization similar to that which occurred in the past presidential election.
Bolsonaro-Lula polarization may contribute to the occurrence of the political and ideological radicalization that could endanger the democratic process in Brazil until the next presidential elections. Political radicalization will also be fueled by the social problems generated by the economic stagnation and mass unemployment that has affected the country for 5 years. Bolsonaro supporters will hold the PT governments responsible for the current crisis and Lula’s supporters will hold the Bolsonaro government responsible for its anti-social policy and inability to solve the current economic crisis.
Bolsonaro-Lula polarization can also help to strengthen the emergence of a third way on both the right and left of the political spectrum. It could strengthen the emergence of a third way if new leadership appears capable of competently criticizing the PT governments and the Bolsonaro government and bringing together the majority of the Brazilian population around a development project that overcomes the current huge economic and social problems and builds social peace in the country.
Due to its anti-social policy and the inability to solve the current economic crisis, the unpopularity of Bolsonaro and his government should increase favoring Lula’s supporters and also the third way supporters, especially those on the left of the political spectrum, in the next presidential elections. Given the political radicalization between Bolsonaro and Lula supporters and the prospect of losing the next presidential elections with the return of the PT and Lula to power, Bolsonaro and his allies could create the conditions to justify a self-coup of state ending the democratic process inaugurated in 1988 in Brazil and implanting a fascist dictatorship.
The possibility of victory, however, of a third way candidate, especially the one on the right of the political spectrum, would have a chance of being accepted by Bolsonaro’s supporters and thus avoid the self-coup of state to prevent the return of the PT and Lula to power. In other words, the democratic process in Brazil will be threatened in Brazil with the return of Lula’s supporters in power. The permanence of democracy in Brazil depends on the victory in the forthcoming presidential elections of a third way candidate on both the right and left of the political spectrum.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 79, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).
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