Fernando Alcoforado*
Brazil is on the verge of bankruptcy because it is about to plunge into the most serious economic crisis of the past 90 years. The bankruptcy and default of companies that are currently registered aggravate the economic crisis in Brazil. Many small and medium-sized companies, which closed their doors since 2015 with the restriction of credit and the fall in demand, will likely go to bankrupt with government measures restricting economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. In addition, several large companies are also likely to go bankrupt with massive layoffs and rising defaults.
Many people in Brazil are indebted to banks (car and property financing), retail and consumer accounts (electricity, water, telephone) in arrears. Mass unemployment explains the increase in indebtedness among people in Brazil. The trend is that defaults continue to rise among companies and among individuals as a result of the economic recession that will be further aggravated by government measures restricting economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. With the drop in sales and the increase in unemployment there will be no change in this scenario of indebtedness of companies and people.
Brazil is a country that has its economic system in a terminal stage due to the vertiginous wave of mass unemployment and the widespread bankruptcy of companies aggravated by government measures that restrict economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that contribute to lead Brazil to depression economic which can cause a social upheaval unprecedented in the history of the country. This social upheaval will result from the worsening economic situation of the vast majority of the Brazilian population, especially the poorest. Hunger, which is present in the majority of the Brazilian population, tends to increase with the vertiginous retraction of economic activity resulting from the measures adopted by governments at all levels to combat the coronavirus.
The Bolsonaro government’s measures to help the most vulnerable populations and maintain jobs with resources in the order of R$ 140 billion are palliative because they are insufficient to meet the needs of the vast majority of the Brazilian population in the current situation of the spread of the coronavirus. It will be very difficult for appropriate measures to be adopted in Brazil to alleviate the situation of the poor, because the financial situation of the federal government, state governments and city halls is already being severely compromised by the sharp drop in tax revenues resulting from the retraction of economic activity in Brazil. since 2015.
Unfortunately, everything that has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government under the incompetent direction of Jair Bolsonaro who does not have the political leadership or the administrative capacity necessary to carry out the transformations required for Brazil in the current term. The insufficiency of public resources to face the current economic crisis aggravated by the coronavirus is added to the existence of a government team unable to solve the country’s gigantic problems.
To avoid the political, economic and social hecatomb that threatens Brazil, the union of the Brazilian nation is urgent, not only in the fight against the coronavirus, but, above all, around a common development project. Everything suggests that if Jair Bolsonaro is not removed from power through impeachment for the countless crimes of responsibility that he has been practicing systematically, Brazil could be the stage of social upheaval that could lead the country to a civil war never occurred in Brazil with unpredictable consequences aggravated by the famine that will cause political and social violence to reach alarming levels. It is necessary to consider that the hunger felt by the people was a decisive factor for the outbreak of the French Revolution of 1789 and the Russian Revolution of 1917. This is the risk that threatens Brazilian society. Therefore, Brazil is experiencing decisive moments in its history.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).
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