Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present the predictions for the end of the Coronavirus pandemic in Brazil and worldwide made by the University of Technology and Design of Singapore and the University of Minnesota in the United States. To establish when the coronavirus pandemic will end, Singaporean scientists considered that pandemics, like the coronavirus, behave in a general way as in an “S” curve where the accumulation of cases occurs over time until reach its peak after which it decreases to the end of the curve. Researchers at the University of Minnesota considered three possible scenarios for the Covid-19 pandemic in which the current wave is followed by smaller, repetitive waves over a period that can range from one to two years with the second epidemic wave even more severe than the which is occurring now, followed by smaller waves in which the virus would continue to infect people constantly over time, until it infects the entire population or most of it, forming the so-called herd immunity.
It appears, in principle, that the predictions of scientists at the University of Singapore are quite optimistic because they consider the end of the pandemic in 2020 in Brazil and in the world to be unlikely to occur and that the predictions of scientists at the University of Minnesota are pessimistic or more likely to occur because it believes that this pandemic will not end soon with the admission of possible periodic resurgences of the disease in the next two years. Everything depends, therefore, on a new vaccine to fight the new Coronavirus. Without a vaccine there will be no solution to fight Coronavirus and everything return to normal. Therefore, its development and production is urgent to immunize the world population. As long as the vaccine is not available, social isolation is essential.
To read the article, access the website <https://www.academia.edu/42938758/FORECASTS_FOR_THE_END_OF_THE_NEW_CORONAVIRUS_PANDEMIC_IN_BRAZIL_AND_THE_WORLD>.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).
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