Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to address three very important issues related to the new Coronavirus pandemic: the first concerns the conditions required for the resumption or reopening of economic activity; the second, concerns the chances of obtaining an effective vaccine to immunize the population of the virus, and the third, is related to the possibility or not of the pandemic becoming endemic. These last two issues are important because they condition the recovery of the economy. Therefore, this article seeks to answer the following questions: 1) Under what conditions should economic activities be resumed ?; 2) Is it possible to reopen the economy without a vaccine?; 3) Is it possible to obtain an effective vaccine to immunize the entire world population? 4) Will the new Coronavirus be endemic? To search for answers to these questions, some recent publications were analyzed, the details of which are presented in the following paragraphs.
Governments around the world are struggling with the question of how to reopen their economies while the virus still exists, which has infected nearly 4.3 million people worldwide and left more than 291,000 dead. The conflict that is established in Brazil between the priority to be given to the resumption of the economy defended by the Bolsonaro government and the priority to be given to fighting the new Coronavirus defended by scientists and most state governors is also taking place in the United States with President Trump defending the resumption of the economy without the pandemic having been overcome in opposition to the view of scientists who consider it premature. The newspaper El País published an article under the title Epidemiologista da Casa Branca se distancia de Trump e alerta Senado contra reabertura prematura nos Estados Unidos (White House Epidemiologist distances himself from Trump and warns the Senate against premature reopening in the United States), available on the website <https://brasil.elpais.com/internacional/2020-05-13/epidemiologista-da-casa-branca-se-distancia-de-trump-e-alerta-senado-contra-reabertura-prematura-nos-eua.html#?sma=newsletter_brasil_diaria20200514>.
Chief United States epidemiologist Anthony Fauci said in his testimony to the Senate Health Commission that a premature resumption of the economy will cause unnecessary suffering and death in the country. A premature resumption in the economy could have “very serious consequences” and that the death toll in the country will “almost certainly” be greater than the more than 88,000 recorded so far. The pandemic, the scientist emphasized, is not completely under control. If some areas, cities, states skip steps and reopen prematurely without being able to respond effectively and efficiently to the disease, their concern is that we will begin to see small peaks that can turn into outbreaks, said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, to senators. In reality, according to him, paradoxically, this will lead to a delay that will not only cause suffering and deaths that could be avoided, but could also mean a delay in the economic recovery.
Fauci’s speech took place at a hearing to assess the U.S. government’s response to Covid-19 which further exposed the disagreements between the scientific guidelines for a gradual, cautious and controlled economic resumption and the rapid resumption advocated by President Donald Trump, who said the country had beaten Covid-19 and that it was time to get back to normal. Contradicting Trump, the director of the Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Robert Redfield, said in his Senate testimony that the United States is not yet out of danger. Of the 50 American states, 35 have already initiated or announced the easing of restrictions. Most of them, however, have been doing without respecting the non-binding guidelines of federal medical authorities. In reality, most of the governors who announced the partial resumption of activities were dealing with an increase in cases of people infected with the disease. Asked about the possibility of having a vaccine ready by autumn, Fauci said that this is a very distant possibility. Most of the medical community agrees that the production of one or more vaccines against the new Coronavirus is essential for a complete return to normality. In other words, the recovery of the American economy should only happen when the vaccine is available.
On the availability of vaccine against the new Coronavirus, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) informs that it will only be possible in about a year. This information can be found on the website <https://g1.globo.com/bemestar/vacina/noticia/2020/05/14/vacina-sera-possivel-em-cerca-de-um-ano-diz-agencia-europeia.ghtml>. The European Medicines Agency rules out the possibility of skipping the third phase of a vaccine test, which he said would be needed to ensure that a vaccine was safe and effective. A vaccine against the new Coronavirus must be approved in about a year in an optimistic scenario, informs the agency that approves medicines for the European Union. The European Medicines Agency, in a statement to 33 developers, said it was doing its best to speed up the approval process. It does not guarantee that any vaccine could be ready in September. For vaccines, it may be available in 2021. The EMA is also looking at 115 different treatments for the new Coronavirus, which has killed nearly 300,000 people worldwide, according to data from the World Health Organization. It reports that some of these therapies could be approved in Europe this summer, but did not specify which.
As a result, the resumption of the United States economy should only happen from 2021 if the vaccine is available. WHO emergency specialist Mike Ryan reports that more than 100 possible vaccines are being developed, including several in clinical trials, but experts have highlighted the difficulties in finding effective vaccines against the new Coronavirus. This information was presented in the article OMS diz que novo Coronavírus pode se tornar endêmico (WHO says a new Coronavirus may become endemic) published on 05/14/2020 by Emma Farge and Michael Shields, Reuters reporters, available on the website <https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/internacional/noticia/2020-05/oms-diz-que-coronavirus-pode-se-tornar-endemico>. In this article, there is information that the new Coronavirus, which causes covid-19 respiratory disease, may become endemic like the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), said the World Health Organization (WHO), who warned about the difficulty of predict how long the virus will continue to circulate and called for a “huge effort” to fight it.
According to WHO, this virus can become endemic in our communities and never disappear, reports WHO emergency specialist Mike Ryan. He said that he thinks it is important to be realistic and that he does not believe that anyone can predict when this disease will disappear. This disease can establish itself as a long-term problem or not. Ryan recalled that it takes enormous effort, even if a vaccine is discovered. More than 100 possible vaccines are being developed, including several in clinical trials, but experts have highlighted the difficulties in finding effective vaccines against the new Coronavirus. Ryan noted that vaccines exist for other diseases, such as measles, that have not been eliminated. Ryan said very significant control of the virus is needed to decrease its risk, which he said remains high at national, regional and global levels.
It can be concluded from the above that, it is a huge risk to resume economic activity, except the essential ones, in any country without the existence of a vaccine because it will cause unnecessary suffering and death, there is no guarantee that the vaccines that will be developed will be effective in combating the new Coronavirus and that there is no guarantee that the new Coronavirus will not become an endemic disease such as measles and AIDS. It is necessary to establish the understanding that it will take some time to get out of this pandemic. Countries have to resume economic activities, therefore, with the necessary caution to prevent further outbreaks and the dizzying growth of deaths from the new Coronavirus. The health of the population must be considered a priority and not the resumption of economic activity. Therefore, there is a risk of increasing the number of deaths with the premature resumption of the economy as presidents Trump in the United States and Bolsonaro in Brazil want.
With the spread of the new Coronavirus, governments must act with the objective of minimizing the number of infected and killed by the virus and avoiding the collapse of the health system by adopting total social isolation of the population, maintaining essential economic activities and adopting measures for the benefit of the unemployed and the poor to avoid starvation and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises to avoid succumbing to the crisis. These are indispensable measures to be adopted during the advancement of Coronavirus. Once the Coronavirus was overcome with the appearance of a vaccine, the reconstruction or uplift of the economic system would come with the adoption of the following measures:
- Construction of a large number of public works, with emphasis on economic (energy, transport and communications) and social (education, health, housing and basic sanitation) infrastructure;
- Government grant of tax facilities and low interest rates for companies to invest again;
- Development of the social and solidarity economy to combat unemployment by generating work and income, in various sectors, whether in community banks, credit unions, family farming cooperatives, in the matter of fair trade, exchange clubs, etc;
- Government grant of basic or universal income to the population, especially the most vulnerable.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).
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