Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present the real causes of pandemics based on expert opinion and show how to prevent them in the future. The dominant opinion of these experts is that humanity will have to make profound changes in its relationship with nature to prevent new pandemics from happening that threaten its very existence.
The article Mais destruição da natureza, mais pandemias (More destruction of nature, more pandemics), published on the website <https://climainfo.org.br/2020/03/19/mais-destruicao-da-natureza-mais-pandemias/>, informs that the destruction of biodiversity promoted by humanity can create the conditions for the emergence of new viruses with unprecedented transmission power and lethality. Human beings have always lived with pathogens from nature, some beneficial, others mortal. A few were as deadly as the Bubonic Plague and the Spanish Flu. This situation is repeated with the pandemic of the new Coronavirus. In this article, it is also reported that a 2008 survey identified 335 new diseases that emerged between 1960 and 2004, of which 60% came from animals.
David Quammen, author of Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, published by The New York Times Book Review, wrote that man invades tropical forests and other wild environments that are home to several species of plants and animals and within these creatures, there are innumerable unknown viruses. By cutting trees, killing animals or caging them and sending them to markets, man destroys ecosystems and spreads viruses from their natural hosts. When that happens, viruses need a new host that is often man himself.
The article Parem de destruir a natureza ou teremos pandemias piores, alerta grupo de cientistas (Stop destroying nature or we will have worse pandemics, warns a group of scientists), published on the website <https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/parem-de-destruir-natureza-ou-teremos-pandemias-piores-alerta-grupo-de-cientistas-24398235>, signed by professors Josef Settele, Sandra Díaz and Eduardo Brondizio, who led the study on the most comprehensive “planetary health” ever done, informs that “there is a single species responsible for the pandemic of Covid-19: us ”. And, if the destruction of nature does not end, it is likely that even more deadly and destructive diseases will hit humanity in the future, more quickly and more frequently. The alert comes from the world’s leading biodiversity experts. The researchers said that “rampant deforestation, uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive agriculture, mining and infrastructure development, as well as the exploitation of wild species” created what they called a “perfect storm” for the spread of disease.
In the article by Erick Gimenes Ação humana contra o meio ambiente causou a pandemia do coronavírus, diz pesquisador (Human action against the environment caused the coronavirus pandemic, says researcher), published on the website <https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2020/03/18/acao-humana-contra-o-meio-ambiente-causou-a-pandemia-do-coronavirus-diz-pesquisador>, Allan Carlos Pscheidt, doctor of Plant Biodiversity and Environment and professor at the Faculdades Metropolitanas Unidas, in São Paulo, says that the destruction of habitats of other animals will make epidemics more and more common. The new Coronavirus has spread across the world thanks to the destructive and invasive action of human beings against nature. The organism that causes Covid-19 has long been in the environment, probably housed in bats native to untouched caves, according to the professor. With the increasing urbanization and consequent human invasion, however, the virus broke its natural cycle and reached other beings, such as man, whose organism is not yet prepared to fight it.
According to the researcher Allan Carlos Pscheidt, the pandemic of the new Coronavirus leaves clear lessons: we urgently need to worry about unbridled consumption, the recurrent destruction of the planet and climate change. The spread of the new Coronavirus is a direct result of this. Pscheidt warns that, in an interconnected world like the one we live in today, viral epidemics must become increasingly common. For him, if we do not evolve into a more conscious and less selfish society, humanity will be decimated by new pandemics. As long as it does not protect nature, humanity will be subject to new pandemics.
The article entitled Especialistas alertam para risco de pandemias globais (Experts warn of the risk of global pandemics), available on the website <https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/geral/noticia/2019-09/especialistas-alertam-para-risco-de-pandemias-globais?amp>, presents the report A World At Risk, the first annual document prepared by the independent Global Preparedness Monitoring Board – GPMB, which informs that issues such as prolonged international conflicts, national states fragile and forced migrations favor the rapid circulation of lethal viruses worldwide, as well as climate change, increasing urbanization and the lack of treated water and basic sanitation. The report A World At Risk provides seven urgent recommendations for world leaders to prepare to face health emergencies.
Paula Adamo Idoeta’s article of 12 August 2020 under the title Plano para prevenir novas pandemias custaria 2% dos gastos globais com a covid-19 (Plan to prevent new pandemics would cost 2% of global spending on covid-19), available on the website <https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/geral-53731461> , informs that that each year of the 20th century, at least two viruses were transmitted from animals that were their original hosts to human populations. Among them are HIV, H1N1, ebola and, of course, the new coronavirus and that preventing deforestation, hunting and animal trafficking by preventing human contact with wild animals significantly reduces the chance of epidemics. This is the central argument of a scientific article recently published in the journal Science and signed by members of several academic and research centers, including the American universities Harvard and Duke and the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) when citing that deforestation and the ever closer contact between humans and wild animals (whether due to trafficking, hunting or food needs) is what causes the virus to “jump” from its host to humans. The (infection) risks are greater than ever, as increasingly close associations between humans and reservoirs of wildlife diseases accelerate the potential for viruses to spread globally.
The authors of this scientific article in the journal Science say that measures to reduce that proximity are crucial – and relatively cheap – to prevent future pandemics because with 2% of the money the world is spending on the covid-19 pandemic, it would be possible to create a program of prevention, over ten years, so that other viruses of similar danger to Sars-CoV-2 do not have the chance to pass from their original hosts to humans. The authors of this article have outlined a series of strategies to limit these transmission chains, with investments of US$ 22 billion to US$ 31 billion a year for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation and so help prevent future pandemics, according to Harvard University. The cost would be a fraction of the trillion-dollar spending on life and economic losses of the current pandemic – which could reach US$ 20 trillion, according to some estimates. It is also an insignificant value for the richest nations in the world.
Not only deforestation and animal trafficking create an environment conducive to pandemics, but also wars because all these actions increase the contact of humans with wild animals, which can host viruses with pandemic potential. The more areas that are deforested, the greater the so-called areas where communities of people come to live and eat close to wild animals, which can transmit viruses directly to humans or for animals created by humans, such as pigs and birds. This dynamic is especially strong in tropical forests, due to the amount of wild animals that they shelter. Deforestation in the Amazon, for example, is one of the most feared triggers for new pandemics in the future.
There are hundreds of scientific articles showing that malaria is characteristic of agricultural frontier areas when deforestation occurs. Malaria comes from human contact with the forest. Another great pandemic risk comes from the trafficking of wild and wild animals, because the entire chain from the collection, transportation, trade and use of these animals, for consumption or for for domestic breeding, creates possible moments of contagion. Wars and forced migration caused by them can also create moments of contagion, by forcing people to flee to forests to protect themselves and needing to resort to wild animals to feed.
One of the academic articles cited by the Science study points to the potential of bats to cause pandemics. Its possible role in having been the original host of the Sars-CoV-2 virus is still investigated by science. The Ebola virus and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) probably also reached humans via bats. Bats are seen as a natural reserve for these viruses, especially coronaviruses, which make up about 31% of their viroma (viruses present in their bodies), says researchers at Chinese universities. The bats are more likely to feed in regions where humans live when their natural habitats are destroyed or degraded, which leads us to a danger that surrounds the Amazon Forest which has an enormous number of reservoirs (of viruses), because it has a huge diversity and is, for example, the forest with the greatest diversity of bats in the world. And the areas of contact with humans have increased enormously with the progress of deforestation.
The article Desmatamento e extinções aumentam o risco de novas pandemias (Deforestation and extinctions increase the risk of new pandemics), published on 08/10/2020, available on the website <https://www.megacurioso.com.br/ciencia/115544-desmatamento-e-extincoes-aumentam-o-risco-de-novas-pandemias.htm>, informs that ecologists have long warned of the risk of new diseases arising as deforestation advances across the planet. A new study shows the direct relationship between the two situations: as the species’ natural habitat is degraded, only species that are easier to adapt survive. And they include rats and bats, which can carry pathogens that can trigger a new pandemic. University College London analyzed more than 6,800 ecological communities, on 6 continents, to connect the outbreak of diseases with the loss of biodiversity. The results were published in the journal Nature. “We have been warning this for decades,” explains Kate Jones, ecological modeler and lead author of the study. According to her, with the covid-19 pandemic, her efforts are now in the spotlight in order to map risks and project where diseases may arise. The current pandemic of the new coronavirus has also shown the importance of biodiversity in the transmission of pathogens.
Evanildo da Silveira’s article of 12 August 2020 under the title Por que uma nova pandemia nos próximos anos é praticamente inevitável (Why a new pandemic in the coming years is practically inevitable), available on the website <https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/geral-53758807.amp>, informs that “it is just a matter of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ the next one will emerge”, according to the opinion of virologist Camila Malta Romano. If there is anything almost certain about the current pandemic, it is that it will not be the last one that humanity will face. We just don’t know when and where the next one will come from and what its causative agent is, whether a virus, bacteria or other microorganism.
In this article, it is mentioned that the sanitary doctor Gonzalo Vecina Neto, from USP’s School of Public Health (FSP), states that the world will still face many pandemics. “There will be other viruses or microorganisms trying to colonize man, using us as a reservoir and producing disease,” says he, who was the founder and president of the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa). In their book Inimigo Mortal – Nossa guerra contra os germes assassinos (Mortal Enemy – Our war against killer germs) (São Paulo: Intrínseca), the authors, Michael Osterholm and Mark Olshaker, go a little further. They say the next pandemic will find “a world in precarious balance in developing countries, invasion of natural habitats that brought reservoirs of animal diseases to our doorsteps, hundreds of millions of human beings and host animals living close together and a planetary supply chain that provides everything from electronics and auto parts to medicine without which even advanced hospitals will no longer function “.
Abinoan Santiago’s article under the title ‘Doença X’, a possível nova pandemia que pode ser mais letal que a de Covid-19 (‘Disease X’, the possible new pandemic that could be more lethal than Covid-19’s), available on the website <https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021/01/17/doenca-x-a-possivel-nova-pandemia-que-pode-ser-mais-letal-que-a-de-covid-19>, informs that a possible next pandemic can be just as contagious and much more lethal than the Covid-19, which has already claimed the lives of more than 2 million people on the planet. The appearance of a new disease is called by scientists “disease X”, which is a concept of the World Health Organization (WHO) for something unexpected or unknown that may still appear. We are now in a world where new pathogens will emerge. And that is what constitutes a huge threat to humanity. A new pathogen will follow the same pattern of transmission as others already found, moving from a wild animal to humans. This is the case of Covid-19 itself, in addition to yellow fever, various forms of flu, rabies, brucellosis and Lyme disease (infection transmitted by ticks). This is the result of the destruction of the natural habitat of the most diverse species around the world, especially those of predators of rats, bats and insects. With the growing coexistence with humans of these species, the danger of them becoming a vector of disease transmission is increasing.
From the above, the facts of reality demonstrate that the health of the human being depends on the health of the planet (emphasis added). It is quite clear that humanity will have to make profound changes in its relationship with nature to prevent new pandemics from happening that threaten its very existence. There must be a mobilization of civil society across the planet to build a new world order in which there is a radical change in the concept of development as practiced for centuries. The human being needs to start living in harmony with nature without which his survival will be threatened. It is necessary to change the economic matrix in general (agricultural, industrial and services) in order to start considering the need to preserve nature, respect the limits of the environment and its recovery time and stop producing so much garbage. It is necessary to immediately stop degrading and deforesting forests and strengthen health surveillance systems in all countries and the World Health Organization (WHO), reduce social inequities between and within nations, remove subsidies that favor deforestation and offer more support to indigenous peoples to curb deforestation.
There is an urgent need to ban international trade in high-risk species of virus transmission and to eradicate wild meat consumption in the world, to create a library of virus genetics, which helps in mapping places from which new high-risk pathogens may arise, to make investments from US$ 22 billion to US$ 31 billion a year for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation and investments in health surveillance and biosafety in the breeding of consumer animals, which are potential intermediaries of viruses that target humans, especially in areas close to forests to help prevent future pandemics, as well as keep the world population well informed about the risks of new pandemics with reliable data, based on experience and science, which would certainly be of great value in generating guidance essential to their social behavior in order to collaborate in the effort to prevent new pandemics. It is better to prevent the occurrence of new pandemics at a lower cost than to remedy them with immense losses such as those registered with the deaths and the resulting economic stagnation. Without these actions proposed above, there will not be enough vaccines to face the multiplicity of future pandemics.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).
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