HOW TO SAVE THE HUMANITY OF NATURAL DISASTERS CAUSED BY EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS AND VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Fernando Alcoforado *

This article, published on various websites in Brazil and abroad in Portuguese, English and French, aims to present the necessary strategies to save humanity from natural disasters caused by earthquakes, tsunamis and volcano eruptions that have contributed to the occurrence of deaths of populations and destruction of buildings and infrastructure in many countries. With the exception of Japan, which adopts advanced preventive and precautionary measures against earthquakes and tsunamis, humanity remains at the mercy of these natural disasters due to the lack of prediction of the occurrence of these events, plans to evacuate populations from the affected areas and preventive and precautionary measures to deal with catastrophes caused by earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. This article presents Japan’s experience in coping with earthquakes and tsunamis and the advances in studies and research carried out by various researchers and scientific institutions that could be used in various parts of the world to deal with natural disasters caused by earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions . In addition, this article proposes global actions to deal with disasters that span several countries and regions.

It is worth noting that earthquakes that occur when the tectonic plates that make up the earth’s crust are under great pressure from magma coming from inside the planet. This pressure exerts a force on the tectonic plates, generating earthquakes, tsunamis (when they occur in the ocean floor), in addition to the eruption of volcanoes. The regions at greatest risk of earthquakes are located on the borders of the 28 tectonic plates on Earth. Of the five major disasters resulting from earthquakes, the Himalayas were afflicted by three of them. The five strongest earthquakes ever recorded in the world to date have been those of the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia in 1952, Valdivia in Chile in 1960, Alaska in the United States in 1964, Sumatra Island in Indonesia in 2004 and Oshika Peninsula in Japan in 2011. The strongest earthquake in history, however, was that of Shensi, China, which occurred in the year 1556 which left an incredible 830 thousand dead. As for the tsunami, like what happened catastrophically in Indonesia in 2004 and in Japan in 2011, it is waves caused by earthquakes in the oceanic crust that pushes the water body upward and is also the result of the displacement of continental and volcanic eruptions in the ocean or impact of meteorites.

In the United States, about 130 volcanoes are active, in Indonesia 120 volcanoes, in Chile 95 volcanoes and in Japan around 66 volcanoes, among other countries. A study published by the renowned magazine “Science” brings evidence that the intense activity of volcanoes about 200 million years ago probably led to the extinction of about half of the species of animals on Earth in the period, known as the end of the Triassic which is a geological period that stretches from about 252 to 201 million years ago. The intense volcanic activity released enormous amounts of gases into the planet’s atmosphere in the period, which abruptly changed the climatic conditions. The new conditions have changed the habitat of the species both in the oceans and on land. Evidence suggests that climate change occurred so suddenly that animals were unable to evolve and adapt.

Studies indicate that Brazil may have earthquakes of 6.0 magnitude on the Richter scale (sufficient to cause very serious damage if they occur near any large city) once every 50 years, on average. The most famous earthquake that caused the greatest economic and social impact was that of the small town of João Câmara, in Rio Grande do Norte, recorded at 3:22 am on November 30, 1986, with a magnitude of 5.1 points. The consequences were catastrophic. About 4,350 buildings were destroyed or damaged, leaving thousands homeless, including from neighboring municipalities, with some families losing practically everything they owned. In addition, the quake paralyzed small industries and local businesses and suspended classes at schools in the region. Rio Grande do Norte is the state most exposed to earthquakes, because it is located in its territory the biggest geological fault in Brazil, which has an extension of 38 km by 4 km in width and cuts through the municipalities of Parazinho, João Câmara, Poço Branco and Bento Fernandes, with a depth of 9 km. This failure accumulates energy that can cause earthquakes and even tsunamis.

Researchers at UERJ, led by Professor Francisco Dourado (Center for Research and Studies on Disasters – CEPEDES), in partnership with Portuguese researchers, sought and found physical evidence of the arrival of a tsunami on the beaches of the coast of Brazil in 1755, as a result of a earthquake that hit Lisbon. The giant wave crossed the Atlantic and caused havoc on the Brazilian coast. The giant wave reached the entire northeastern coast, with reports that it also reached Rio de Janeiro, in the southeast of the country. The waves did not reach very high, but the volume of water was great. The waves flooded up to 4 kilometers away from the coastline. There is also the possibility of a tsunami in Brazil with the eruption of the volcano “Cumbre Vieja”, located in the archipelago of the Canary Islands with the launch of more than 500 tons of land in the Atlantic Ocean, causing strong waves that, among other places, would hit Brazil.

The main conclusions of this article are that, in order to deal with the movement of tectonic plates, tsunamis and the eruption of volcanoes, there must be local, national and global strategies to face them and minimize their consequences. These strategies are as follows:

1. In the current conditions, as it is not possible to predict the occurrence of earthquakes, it is necessary to adopt preventive and precautionary measures to eliminate or reduce the damage caused by them to populations, buildings and infrastructure as the Japanese do. The Japanese experience of earthquake prevention and precaution should be disseminated and adopted worldwide.

2. As for tsunamis, they can be predicted quickly and efficiently with the help of seismographs, because when the earthquake occurs, you can quickly define the epicenter of this tremor, which is the projection of it on the surface and it is possible to make the modeling how this wave will come out, checking its speed and checking how long it will reach various places on the planet and trigger plans to evacuate populations. Google Earth can be used to show data that indicates the relative likelihood of a future tsunami in various coastal areas as the United States Geological Survey Center does.

3. As for volcanic eruptions, scientists have long used data from satellites, seismic sensitive equipment and other sources to detect upcoming volcano eruptions and it is possible to predict their occurrences with constant monitoring of volcanoes to prevent disasters catastrophic proportions with the adoption of population evacuation plans in the areas covered by the volcanoes.

4. Regarding Brazil, it is important to highlight that the fact that it is not located in high risk seismic zones, there is the possibility of suffering earthquakes and tsunamis, which makes it a requirement for the country to prepare itself to face these problems.

5. In each country in the world, structures to monitor earthquakes, tsunamis and the eruption of volcanoes must be set up and plans must be drawn up to evacuate populations in places that could be affected by these catastrophic events.

6. A global structure, a World Organization for the Defense of Natural Disasters of global scope, similar to the WHO (World Health Organization), with the capacity to technically coordinate the actions of countries in the face of earthquakes, tsunamis and eruption of volcanoes whose consequences have local, regional and worldwide coverage, especialmente de vulcões que podem levar à extinção da vida no planeta, such as the great eruptions of volcanoes that occurred 250 million years ago that ended a life cycle on Earth.

The aforementioned world organization should be linked to a democratic world government to be created that is capable of coordinating all actions of all national governments in adopting the necessary measures to evacuate human beings to safe places and even, if necessary, to out of planet Earth in habitable places in the solar system (Mars, the moon of Saturn, Titan, and Jupiter, Callisto) in the event that the eruption of volcanoes could lead to the threat of extinction of humans as has occurred in the past. No national government, no matter how powerful, will be able to carry out the herculean task of saving humanity from this type of threat. In addition, national governments, especially the most powerful, would favor the survival of their populations and not all of humanity. There is an urgent need for a world democratic government and a world parliament to carry out the noble task of saving humanity from this and other threats to its survival.

The aforementioned world organization should be linked to a democratic world government to be created that is capable of coordinating all actions of all national governments in adopting the necessary measures to evacuate human beings to safe places and even, if necessary, out of planet Earth in habitable places in the solar system (Mars, the moon of Saturn, Titan, and the moon of Jupiter, Callisto) in the event that the eruption of volcanoes could lead to the threat of extinction of humans as has occurred in the past. No national government, no matter how powerful, will be able to carry out the herculean task of saving humanity from this type of threat. In addition, national governments, especially the most powerful, would favor the survival of their populations and not all of humanity. There is an urgent need for a world democratic government and a world parliament to carry out the noble task of saving humanity from this and other threats to its survival.

This is a summary of the article whose full text can be read on the website https://www.academia.edu/45001971/HOW_TO_SAVE_THE_HUMANITY_OF_NATURAL_DISASTERS_CAUSED_BY_EARTHQUAKES_TSUNAMIS_AND_VOLCANIC_ERUPTIONS

* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic  planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),  Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).