Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present what was said by the late scientist Stephen Hawking who stated in 2018 that the human species could be driven to extinction in 100 years and that, due to this, he would force human beings to leave the Earth, as well as to demonstrate that the threats of extinction of the human species cited by Hawking can be faced without the need for human beings to escape from Earth. Stephen Hawking, who died in 2018, was a British theoretical physicist and cosmologist, internationally recognized for his contribution to science, being one of the most renowned scientists of the 20th century. Hawking’s statements were made in the documentary Expedition New Earth presented by the BBC in the series Tomorrow’s World. Hawking explained that, by the beginning of the 22nd century, the Earth will experience another period of mass extinction caused by various reasons, including climate change caused by global warming, the rampant increase in world population, nuclear wars and the creation of viruses genetically modified ones that, according to him, would force human beings to leave the Earth. In addition, Hawking believed that the risk of asteroid collision with Earth would be even greater, which would force humans to colonize other planets. He explains that we already have enough technology to destroy the planet, but not to escape it, which should be done within a century.
It is noteworthy that, in November 2016, Hawking made a statement stating that humans should prepare for a possible extinction of their own species, if they do not leave the planet in the next millennium. The term for him is now 100 years. This period of 100 years given by Hawking starts from the premise that the extinction of the human species will occur if nothing is done to avoid the catastrophic events mentioned by him. In 2017, Hawking stated that, although the chances of a natural disaster destroying planet Earth in a given year are very small, it should be noted that these chances have increased over time and will eventually become a certainty for the next one thousand to ten thousand years. Hawking was correct when he said that humanity should spread throughout outer space for a long time lest a disaster on Earth mean the end of the human species. However, the threats pointed out by Hawking do not justify the escape of human beings from Earth, but rather the search for a solution as we pointed out in our book A Humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Humanity threatened and strategies for its survival) published by Editora Dialética from São Paulo.
The threats posed by climate change caused by global warming, the unrestrained increase in the world population, nuclear wars and pandemics cited by Hawking can be faced without the need for human beings to escape from Earth. In our book, cited above, it was proposed that, to deal with the threat of climate change, the sustainable development model could be adopted in each country and globally and that a democratic world government could be implemented to order the planet’s environment and, for to eliminate wars, a world democratic government and a world parliament can be constituted to mediate international conflicts and secure world peace. In turn, to prevent pandemics, global policies can be adopted by a world government that make human beings live in harmony with nature, immediately stop degrading and clearing forests and strengthen health surveillance systems in all countries, international ban on trade in high-risk species of virus transmission, eradication of wild meat consumption in the world and creation of a library of virus genetics, which helps in mapping places where new high pathogens may arise risk. In the case of asteroids colliding with Earth, you can adopt as a strategy to deviate their trajectories or destroy them with nuclear bombs if they are far from Earth.
It should be noted that the warning of the great scientist Hawking of the extinction of the human species does not incorporate all the threats that hover against humanity in the short term. Hawking did not include other threats, such as large volcano eruptions similar to those 250 million years ago that ended a life cycle on Earth, the collision of comets/comet chunks at 20 km, 50 km, 100 km and 150 km in diameter carrying 107 megatons of impact energy and gamma-ray emission resulting from the explosion of supernova stars like the one that hit Earth nearly 450 million years ago. Threats that hang against humanity in the medium and long term, too, were not considered by Hawking, such as the collision with Earth of planets in the solar system, especially Mercury, and orphan planets, the consequences of the continuous increase in distance of the Moon in regarding the Earth, the death of the Sun, the collision of the Andromeda and the Milky Way galaxies and the end of the Universe. In our book Humanity threatened and the Strategies for Its Survival we admit that human escape strategies should be adopted to more viable alternative habitable locations in the solar system such as Mars, Saturn’s moon Titan and Jupiter’s moon Callisto only in cases of large eruptions of volcanoes, the collision with Earth of planets of the solar system and of orphan planets, the consequences of the continuous increase in distance of the Moon from the Earth and the explosion of gamma rays emitted towards the Earth. In our book we also formulate escape strategies for humans from planet Earth for exoplanets located, for example, in the Alpha Centauri star system before the death of the Sun, for exoplanets located in galaxies closer to the Milky Way such as the Canis Major Dwarf Galaxy or the Large Magellanic Cloud before the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies collide and to parallel universes before the end of our Universe.
The planet Mars is, now, the main alternative of escape of the human species in the solar system in case of threat of extinction of the human species. There are already plans to colonize Mars like those of NASA, of Elon Musk, CEO of Space X, and China. It is not until two decades from now that NASA plans to send the first astronauts to the red planet. For NASA, many challenges that still need to be overcome before humans can occupy the planet Mars, such as cosmic radiation, effects of microgravity and contaminations fatal to man. NASA’s plan is to conduct initially experiments on human health and behavior on the planet Mars, develop systems to grow food and recycle water, and also assess how to live and work on the surface of Mars and in transit in spacecraft to sustain human life for years with only routine maintenance. Astronauts traveling to Mars can spend up to three years in space, where cosmic radiation is high and therefore the risk of developing cancer, losing bone density and suffering other health problems is higher. Elon Musk stated in an interview that SpaceX would be able to take people to Mars in 2026 at the time of greatest proximity between Earth and Mars, which is a favorable opportunity for spacecraft launches, which only occurs once every 26 months, and colonize Mars with one million humans by 2050. China, meanwhile, plans the first manned mission to Mars for 2033 with subsequent missions being part of a long-term plan to build a permanent inhabited base on the red planet, extract its resources, harness the water beneath the planet’s surface, produce oxygen on site and to generate electricity. China also plans to develop the technology to send astronauts back to Earth. A round-trip unmanned mission to obtain Martian soil samples is expected to take place by the end of 2030.
The effort to colonize Mars requires, however, that the presence of water be proven on a planet that is dry and quite cold. The average surface temperature of Mars ranges from -125 degrees Celsius in the Martian winter to 22 degrees Celsius in the Martian summer. Mars’ atmosphere is made up of over 95% carbon dioxide. The other 5% correspond to substances such as nitrogen and oxygen. The atmosphere is therefore thin and low in oxygen. Mars has ice at its poles, which is not made of water but carbon dioxide. Sandstorms on the red planet have winds that can reach 150 km per hour. They last for weeks or months and can take over the entire planet. This situation could change with the terraforming of Mars. The use of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton on Mars is a way to convert CO2 into breathable oxygen. To improve the surface temperature issue, the establishment of industries is being considered. With this action, the atmospheric pressure would likely increase by passing CO2 in the form of dry ice from the solid state directly to gas and would also possibly melt the polar ice caps, located in the planet’s cryosphere. Passing the polar caps from solid state dry ice directly to gas would be important to increase the thickness of the Martian atmosphere, which would help increase the planet’s temperature and atmospheric pressure. The use of two mirrors in a static mode to direct the sun’s rays to the polar ice caps, aiming to pass the solid state directly to the gaseous CO2 ice layer, can contribute to the increase of the greenhouse effect on Mars.
From the above, it can be said that the threats of extinction of the human species mentioned by Hawking can be faced without the need for human beings to flee from Earth, as long as the strategies presented in our book The Threatened Humanity and Strategies are adopted for its survival in order to fight climate change, population explosion, nuclear wars and pandemics mentioned by him and it was demonstrated that other threats to human life, especially those coming from outer space, require the adoption of strategies that contribute to plan the escape of beings humans to possible habitable locations inside and outside the solar system and that the colonization of Mars could occur from the 2030s.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021) .
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