Fernando Alcoforado*
Leaders from 196 countries will gather in Glasgow, Scotland, between the 1st and 12th of November this year for the great climate conference, COP 26. COP26 is a meeting to discuss climate change and how countries intend to fight it. COP26 will be the twenty-sixth meeting since the treaty entered into force in March 1994 with the aim of reducing the impact of human activity on the climate. Actions to limit climate change and its effects, such as sea level rise and extreme weather events, are expected to be negotiated. The meeting is seen as crucial for us to be able to exert some control over climate change. In Glasgow, global leaders will assess the results of the 2015 Paris Agreement, COP 21, which was a milestone in international climate negotiations. This agreement was the most important step so far taken by countries in an attempt to limit climate change.
At COP 21, the nations agreed to try to keep the global average temperature rise “well below” 2 °C and try to limit it to 1.5 °C from pre-industrial standards. So far, the temperature has risen 1.2 °C. At COP 21 in Paris, all signatories agreed to:
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
• Expand the production of renewable energy;
• Allocate billions of dollars to help poor countries deal with the impact of climate change.
It was also agreed at COP 21 that every five years there would be a review of the progress achieved. The first analysis was supposed to take place at COP26 in 2020, but because of the pandemic it had to be postponed to 2021.
The analysis of the Paris agreement (COP 21) reveals that two key aspects were not considered: (1) the long-term objective of decarbonising the world economy by 2050 with a cut of at least 70% of global emissions of gases. greenhouse effect until mid-21st century; and 2) the temperature target is not accompanied by a roadmap stating how the world intends to reach less than 2°C or 1.5°C, which weakens the pursuit of that target. The Paris Agreement did not resolve the fundamental issues and the voluntary targets indicated by each of the nations were not sufficient to guarantee that global warming will be well below 2 degrees Celsius and 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Furthermore, the document is characterized by omission in not submitting proposals that contribute to the construction of a sustainable development model on our planet, replacing the current unsustainable model of capitalist development.
The unsustainability of the current capitalist development model is evident, since it has been extremely destructive of living conditions on the planet. It is imperative to replace the current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes into account man integrated into the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. This was not considered at COP 21. To change this situation and put an end to the constant climate change that threatens to destroy our planet and compromise the future of humanity, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of today’s society.
Another issue not addressed at COP 21 concerns the wars that are proliferating around the world and are, in large part, responsible for the environmental deterioration of the planet. Among the countless consequences of wars are the devastating effects on the environment. The bombing of military targets and of civilian populations, the intense movement of military vehicles and troops on the battlefields, the great concentration of combat flights, the missiles launched on cities and the destruction of military and industrial structures during all these conflicts also provoke the emission of metals and other substances that contaminate the soil, water and air. In addition to environmental contamination, it is also necessary to consider the modification of natural landscapes and the long-term loss of biodiversity, whether due to the presence of land mines or chemical agents dispersed in the environment. This was also not considered at COP 21.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that the Paris Agreement also did not consider the need to build a global governance system on planet Earth capable of making international relations based on a planetary social contract that is capable of preventing change global catastrophic climate change and the proliferation of wars in the world and ensure compliance with the Paris Agreement. COP 26 will have to correct the failures of COP 21, without which we will hardly be able to avoid the catastrophic changes in the climate of planet Earth in the 21st century.
It is important to note that humanity is faced with a temporal boundary that is not 2100, but much earlier, 2030! This date is not arbitrary. In 2030, we will live on a planet that will have about 9 billion inhabitants, two-thirds of them living on an Earth saturated with pollution and waste already affected by a sensitive high in temperatures. In 2030, we will be entering a phase of shortage in relation to oil and of strong tension with other fossil fuels, in a context of depletion of natural resources and impoverishment of arable land. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which was 280 ppm (particles per million) in volume at the beginning of the industrial era, could reach values between 540 and 970 ppm in the 21st century. This increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide is responsible for 70% of the ongoing global warming. The world is facing a challenge which is not to allow global warming in the 21st century to exceed two degrees centigrade, without which it will have to bear the catastrophic consequences resulting from climate change.
To prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C, a radical decarbonization of the world economy will be needed. This is a difficult task, but still possible. In this sense, the world needs to limit all carbon dioxide (CO) emissions to one trillion tons. In order to achieve this goal, every country in the world will have to make a huge effort to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This objective will only be achieved if COP 26 adopts policies that contribute to: 1) reform the energy and transport sectors; 2) promote the use of renewable energy sources; 3) limit greenhouse gas emissions; and, 4) protect forests and other carbon sinks. Considering the fact that the main responsible for greenhouse gas emissions in the world are: 1) the generation of electricity from thermoelectric plants using fossil fuels with 22% of greenhouse gas emissions; 2) deforestation with 18%; 3) agriculture and livestock with 14%; 4) industry with 14%; 5) cars and planes with 13%; 6) residential and commercial use of fuels with 11%; 7) garbage decomposition with 4%; and, 8) the refineries with 4%, the effort of the international community must be concentrated on the adoption of measures that contribute to the elimination or reduction of the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in these sectors.
For example, thermoelectric power plants that use fossil fuels must be replaced by renewable energy sources (solar, wind and biomass) and, ultimately, by nuclear plants and deforestation must be fought with strict inspection of forest areas and with punishment example of deforesters. The replacement of diesel oil used in agriculture with biodiesel should be encouraged, the reduction of the size of the cattle population responsible for emitting methane into the atmosphere, the replacement of fuel oil used by industry by less polluting natural gas, the use of ethanol by automobiles to replace gasoline and the manufacture of electric cars to replace vehicles powered by fossil fuels. The replacement of LPG used in homes and commerce by less polluting natural gas should be promoted. The emission of greenhouse gases resulting from the decomposition of garbage can be avoided with the use of methane produced in landfills in the generation of electricity, as well as in the production of fertilizer. At the refineries, there should be an effort to reduce the production of oil products in parallel with the adoption of measures aimed at reducing the consumption of oil products. Refineries should be fundamentally focused on the production of petroleum products for nobler or less polluting use.
Therefore, to eliminate or reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent catastrophic climate change on our planet, it is urgent to reduce oil consumption by adopting policies aimed at implementing programs that contribute to its replacement by other energy resources. In this sense, it is necessary to: 1) generate electricity using renewable energy sources (solar, wind and biomass); 2) replacement of gasoline by ethanol and diesel oil by biodiesel in the transport sector; 3) replacement of fuel oil by natural gas and biomass in industry; 4) replacement of diesel oil by biomass and natural gas in the energy sector; and, 5) replacement of LPG by natural gas in the residential and service sector.
Additionally, it is essential to adopt energy policies aimed at implementing programs that contribute to reducing oil consumption through energy saving actions. Energy saving policies would consist of: 1) producing steam and electricity in industry using cogeneration systems; 2) encourage car and truck manufacturers to increase the efficiency of motor vehicles to reduce fuel consumption; 3) expand rail and waterway systems to transport cargo to replace the use of trucks; 4) expand the public transport system, especially high-capacity mass transport such as the subway or tram, to reduce the use of cars in cities; 5) restrict the use of automobiles in centers and other areas of cities; 6) encourage the manufacture of more efficient machines and equipment to save energy and electric vehicles; and, 7) use petroleum derivatives mainly for non-energy purposes, as an industrial raw material.
All of the measures described above should be taken at COP 26 to avoid catastrophic global climate change. They are justified because, globally, the average temperature of the surface of the seas has been the highest in history, 0.57°C above the 20th century average, while that of the Earth’s surface has exceeded this same average by 1°C. The Earth’s polar regions are places where climate change is having visible and significant impacts. Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically in recent years. Antarctica’s ice shelves are crumbling and breaking apart. Antarctica is the largest frozen mass with 90% of the Earth’s ice. Most of the ice lies in East Antarctica which is higher, colder and less likely to melt. In West Antarctica, some of the ice is in depressions vulnerable to melting. Data from the European Space Agency indicate that the Antarctic continent released 160 billion metric tons of ice per year from 2010 to 2013. If all this continues to evolve, the ocean level is expected to rise significantly submerging various regions of the planet.
In addition to the melting of the poles, the change in the Earth’s climate due to global warming is contributing to the occurrence of floods in cities that are repeated in an increasingly catastrophic way in their effects. Recently, floods have occurred that expose the vulnerability of cities in Europe and China to the most extreme weather. In order to face extreme weather events in cities, it is necessary to carry out flood control. Flood control refers to all methods used to reduce or prevent the harmful effects of the action of water by the construction of dikes, dams, retention basins or detention. Engineering works must be carried out to prevent and mitigate the effects of flooding in cities with the adoption of structural and non-structural measures. Structural measures correspond to engineering works that can be implemented with a view to preventing and/or correcting problems arising from flooding. Non-structural measures are those that seek to prevent and/or reduce the damage and consequences of floods, not through engineering work, but through the introduction of standards, regulations and programs that aim, for example, to discipline the use and occupation of land, implementation of warning and awareness systems for the population.
If all the measures proposed here are considered by COP 26 and put into practice around the world, the future of planet Earth will not be compromised by catastrophic global climate change.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021) .
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