LESSONS FROM THE WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to present eight lessons learned from the war between Russia and Ukraine. Recently, the United States, NATO and the European Union have joined together to unleash an economic and financial war against Russia to generate an internal economic crisis that could contribute to the overthrow of Wladimir Putin from power and make this country obey the dictates of the great Western economic and military powers. The economic and financial war against Russia was adopted in the face of the impossibility of direct military intervention in Ukraine by NATO, the western military alliance, which could trigger a new world war of catastrophic consequences for humanity with the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons.

The major Western economic and military powers have ruled out sending troops to fight in Ukraine, using economic and financial sanctions as the main means to economically weaken Russia. The measures could compromise up to 6% of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product, according to Oxford Economics. The response of the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Canada, Japan, Australia and other countries to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unprecedented. Even Switzerland, a country famous for its neutrality and banking secrecy, has also imposed financial sanctions on Russia.

The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other countries have announced an unprecedented set of economic and financial sanctions on Russia in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Among the measures are the exclusion of Russian banks from the Swift system of international financial transfers and the freezing of much of the Russian Central Bank’s reserves of around US$ 630 billion held abroad. Without access to these financial reserves, Russia’s currency, the ruble, is losing value. Moreover, with countries no longer buying or selling Russian products, negotiations are slowing down. This has the potential to take the Russian economy into a deep crisis, in which production and consumption dwindle for lack of inputs to produce and resources to buy.

Never in the history of humanity has an economy of worldwide importance as Russia’s been the target of economic and financial sanctions of this level. There is a high risk that Russia will face a financial crisis that will cause its biggest banks to collapse. The economic and financial war aimed at punishing Russia and turning this country into an international pariah aims to asphyxiate its economic and financial system. The recent sanctions may be just the first steps towards a severe and lasting severing of Russia’s financial and economic ties with the rest of the world.

The exclusion of Russian institutions from the Swift system is the strongest sanction, because it blocks any type of commercial negotiation and the possibility of the money reaching the country. The sanctions adopted have the political objective of forcing Russia to negotiate an end to the war at a disadvantage with Ukraine. It is, however, an innocuous solution because it will not make Russia abandon its intention of making its objectives prevail in Ukraine, that is, the overthrow of the Ukrainian government, the crushing of the neo-Nazi forces existing there, the recognition of the people republics in Donetsk and Luhansk and, above all, to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. However, the continuation of the war will make the economic sanctions have devastating potential for the GDP, for the generation of jobs, income and for Russian international trade. This may result in the cessation of the investment process in the country, compromising the economy in a more profound way.

Economic and financial sanctions on Russia could also send the world into recession. Economic and financial retaliation is likely to have negative consequences for the very countries that are imposing the sanctions and for the global economy. The war in Ukraine could affect the growth of the world economy in 2022 thanks to the impact of inflation, which could rise with the possibility of oil and natural gas prices soaring if there is a reduction or suspension of their supply by Russia, which is one of the world’s largest producers of energy inputs. This scenario could lead central banks around the world to raise interest rates faster in an attempt to contain inflation. With higher interest rates, the global economy tends to grow less. There is the possibility of a global recession or even global depression that could ensue if the conflict spreads beyond Ukraine’s restricted sphere.

The asphyxia to which Russia’s economy is subjected can contribute to the weakening of Vladimir Putin’s power, whether due to the defections of the domestic ruling classes that, hampered by the economic and financial sanctions of the great Western powers, disagree with his war strategy in Ukraine and wish to maintain good relations with the West, either through the action of opposition political forces, which can lead to a change in the political command of the country with Putin’s removal from power, but can also lead him to radicalization in the confrontation with the United States, the European Union and NATO in an attempt to maintain itself in power and impose itself in the face of the power of the great Western powers. The consequences for humanity would be harmful in the latter case because the world would be driven to a new world war.

The leaders of the United States, the European Union and NATO are forgetting that, in the history of humanity, economic wars have often turned into real wars. The economic and financial asphyxia to which, for example, Germany was subjected by the Treaty of Versailles after the 1st World War contributed to the advent of the 2nd World War. This economic and financial asphyxia to which Germany was subjected by the Treaty of Versailles contributed to the collapse of the Weimar Democratic Republic and the rise to power of Nazism. The United States, the European Union and NATO will not prevent the military defeat of Ukraine by promoting the economic and financial war against Russia, but they will be able to make Vladimir Putin radicalize his actions in the confrontation against his enemies because for him it is a game of life or death. The future of Putin and Russia depends on the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

There are several lessons from the war between Russia and Ukraine. The first lesson is that no country in the world is certain that it cannot be invaded by the great powers if it does not serve their interests. The second lesson is that the great Western powers, represented by the United States, the European Union, among other countries, and NATO,  can asphyxiate the economy of any country in the world with the adoption of economic and financial sanctions such as those carried out for the first time in history against Russia. The third lesson is that the UN has not fulfilled its role of mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to avoid the disastrous consequences of the war and preserve world peace. The fourth lesson is that the ineffectiveness of the UN contributed to the warlords on both sides seeking to impose their will with the use of military power, in the case of Russia, and economic power, in the case of major Western powers, represented by the United States, European Union, among other countries, and NATO. The fifth lesson is that international law was once again flouted with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The sixth lesson is that the world experiences anarchy in international relations in which the law of the strongest prevails. The seventh lesson is that the power of the arms industry promotes the military expansion of the world’s great powers to foment wars to make money. The eighth lesson is that the economic war of the United States, the European Union and NATO against Russia could be the trigger for a new world war with the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

From the above, the following can be concluded:

1) There is a need for each nation to seek economic self-sufficiency to prevent it from suffering the consequences of the concerted action of the great Western powers if the country does not bend to its interests. Economic self-sufficiency is the condition for no nation to be asphyxiated by the power of the great powers as is happening with Russia. All countries must seek commercial exchange with the rest of the world, but without becoming extremely dependent on the outside.

2) There is a need to promote world disarmament with the end of the war industry in the world so that wars are no longer fomented. World peace will only be possible with disarmament, which demands the end of the world’s arms industry so that wars are no longer fomented.

3) There is an imperative need to build a new world order to ensure international peace and the progress of humanity. There is an urgent need to build a new world order to replace the current bankrupt world order that does not guarantee international peace and the progress of humanity.

4) There is a need for a democratic world government with the restructuring of the UN, the transformation of the UN General Assembly into a world parliament and the transformation of the restructured International Court of The Hague into the World Supreme Court to make the international system work for the benefit of all nations, end wars and secure world peace. International Law will only be respected and applied effectively with the existence of an international system that operates with a democratic world government, a world parliament and a World Supreme Court.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 82, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021) .