Fernando Alcoforado*
After a month of the war in Ukraine, the possibility that this conflict will evolve into a world war is increasing every day, which is manifested in the fact that there is a growing radicalization of the measures adopted by the United States and its European allies against Russia and the Russian government intensifying their military actions. The outbreak of a new world war could occur if Russia is driven to bankruptcy by the economic and financial sanctions imposed by the United States and its European allies and if, as an act of desperation, the Putin government feels threatened with falling. In either case, the Putin administration could or could not attack the United States and its European allies with nuclear weapons to reverse the course of events. The outbreak of a new world war could also occur if, by miscalculation, Russian missiles or bombs hit any NATO member country and if the continued supply of weapons by NATO to Ukraine with the assistance in that country of the military of this organization characterizes their participation in the conflict.
Someone would ask me: who are responsible for a possible outbreak of a new world war? I answer that, in addition to the Putin government of Russia, the governments of Ukraine, the United States and the countries of the European Union, as well as the UN, NATO, the North American arms industry and the Russian arms industry. The Putin government of Russia is one of those responsible for the outbreak of a new world war because it destabilized the international system by invading Ukraine and the government of this country is one of those responsible for a new world conflict by admitting the presence in its territory of NATO that would represent an existential threat to Russia.
The US government is responsible for the outbreak of a new world war because since 1990 it has promoted the expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia, which would be completed with the incorporation of Ukraine into the Western military alliance. The governments of the countries of the European Union contributed to the expansion of NATO in addition to having attracted the countries of the former Warsaw Pact to their incorporation into the European economic bloc. In turn, the UN has not contributed towards seeking an end to the war in Ukraine and, on the contrary, is collaborating to intensify it with the anti-Russia resolutions passed by the General Assembly.
The bellicose action of the United States and European Union countries against Russia with the expansion of NATO is being complemented by the adoption of economic and financial sanctions against the Russian government to bankrupt it and contribute to the overthrow of Putin from power. All these actions by the United States and European allies contribute to Putin being able to radicalize in order to save Russia and himself.
In addition to Russia, Ukraine, the United States, the European Union and the UN, there are also three more responsible for the possible outbreak of a new world war: NATO, the North American arms industry and the Russian arms industry. These three actors are interested in the outbreak of a new world war to justify their existence and the last two, mainly, to make money.
It should be noted that, underlying all the facts that contribute to the outbreak of a new world war, there are geopolitical factors involving the conflict between the great military powers (United States, Russia and China) in the struggle for world power, the interests of United States to occupy the European oil and natural gas market to replace Russia and Joe Biden’s interest in winning the next US parliamentary elections improving his performance as president positioning himself as a world leader radicalizing against Russia and Putin.
The attitudes taken by the United States and its allies in the European Union against Russia reminded me of what happened to Germany after the 1st. World War when, in addition to military restrictions and loss of territory, the Treaty of Versailles imposed economic and financial sanctions that led the country to bankruptcy, resulting in the rise of Nazism and consequent triggering of the 2nd. World War. Something similar is happening right now with the economic and financial sanctions against Russia that could lead to a new world war.
The time has come for the UN, through its Secretary General, to come out of the lethargy in which it finds itself and to act articulately with the peace-loving countries aiming at the end of the war in Ukraine and preventing the outbreak of a new world war. I believe that, in order to achieve these goals, it is necessary that all parties involved in this conflict agree on the following:
1. Government of Ukraine abandons the intention of incorporating the country into NATO and recognizes the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea as Russian.
2. Government of Russia withdraws military forces from Ukraine and undertakes to pay compensation to be calculated for its destruction or to rebuild the country.
3. NATO abandons former Warsaw Pact countries bordering Russia.
4. The United States and the European Union commit to ending economic and financial sanctions against Russia.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 82, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021) .
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