Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present what would be necessary in terms of a government plan to be put into practice immediately by the future ruler of Brazil, that is, by the future President of the Republic. The government plan necessary for Brazil now should have as its primary objective the elimination of unemployment, poverty, violence and inflation that profoundly affect Brazilian society. The government plan should consider these priorities because they constitute the biggest scourges faced by the Brazilian population whose solution cannot be postponed, that is, it has to happen immediately. Unemployment reached record levels in Brazilian history. The number of Brazilians in extreme poverty increases dramatically in the same way as the unemployment rate. Brazil is the country with the highest rate of firearm deaths per inhabitant. Inflation erodes the income of all Brazilians, but it is crueler to those with less income. The government plan of the future ruler of Brazil should therefore prioritize the elimination of unemployment, poverty, violence and inflation in the country.
The unemployment rate in Brazil has reached a vertiginous growth since 2014, with 12 million unemployed workers and 4.8 million discouraged in 2021. Poverty has grown exponentially in Brazil in recent years. In Brazil, in 2019, the number of people in poverty increased to 54.8 million, according to the IBGE. Extreme poverty in Brazil has also increased. In 2017, that number jumped to 15.2 million living in extreme poverty. In 2017, Brazil reached the historic mark of 63,880 homicides. This equates to a rate of 31.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, one of the highest intentional homicide rates in the world. The limit considered as tolerable by the World Health Organization (WHO) is 10 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. In turn, inflation presents itself as one of the scourges that affect the Brazilian population now because it erodes the income of all Brazilians, but it is crueler to those who have less income. The inflation rate was out of control between 2002 and 2004 when it evolved from a rate of 7.5% to reach a rate of 17%, between 2015 and 2016 when it evolved from a rate of 6% to 11% and from 2020 onwards until the present moment when it evolved from 2% to 11%. In March 2021, the inflation accumulated in the last 12 months exceeded the target ceiling and did not return.
To eliminate unemployment, it is necessary to resume economic growth in Brazil, which would make it possible for 12 million unemployed workers, 4.8 million discouraged people to return to the job market and 34.7 million people in informal work, which corresponds to 40% of the labor market, become workers with a formal contract. The main reason for the mass unemployment registered in Brazil is the fact that the country is economically stagnant from 2011 to 2021. The economic stagnation in Brazil is explained by the drop in investment in the Brazilian economy from 1990 onwards. From 1990 to 2021, the rate investment in Brazil has been declining. The practice has demonstrated the unfeasibility of the neoliberal economic model in Brazil, inaugurated by President Fernando Collor in 1990 and maintained by Presidents Itamar Franco, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva, Dilma Roussef, Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro. The current economic stagnation in Brazil will only be overcome with the abandonment of the neoliberal economic model and its replacement by the national developmentalist economic model of selective opening of the Brazilian economy. It is worth noting that the Brazilian economy showed the highest economic growth from 1931 to 1980, driven by the actions of the Getúlio Vargas, Juscelino Kubitschek governments and of the military dictatorship that adopted national developmentalist economic policies with the Brazilian government acting as a mentor and inducer of national development, as opposed to the neoliberal economic model in progress in which the market becomes the main economic agent and the government becomes a supporting role, assuming a passive posture.
With the adoption of the national developmental economic model to replace the neoliberal economic model, responsible for the economic and social devastation of the country, the Brazilian government would be able to promote the immediate elimination of unemployment existing in Brazil with the execution of 7 thousand stopped public works, the construction of a large number of new public works, with emphasis on the economic (energy, transport and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, housing and basic sanitation), the adoption of the import substitution policy and the use of capacity idle in the industry. This initiative would result in economic growth in Brazil because, in addition to the increase in public and private investment, there would be an increase in household consumption, contributing to an increase in GDP. In addition to reactivating the economy to eliminate unemployment, the Brazilian government should encourage the development of the Social and Solidarity Economy, which is an important alternative for the inclusion of workers in the labor market, giving them a new opportunity to work in a new way of production in which profit is no longer the main objective, but rather the generation of employment, and the development of the Creative Economy, which is one of the most effective ways to generate new jobs linked to the knowledge economy by encouraging jobs based on cultural traditions of each region and credit for creative sectors of the economy such as Fashion, Art, Digital Media, Advertising, Journalism, Photography and Architecture.
To eliminate poverty in Brazil, the first action to be implemented is the elimination of unemployment with the strategies described above, complemented by the adoption of the basic income transfer strategy or universal minimum income for the poor population, especially those in extreme poverty and population in a street situation. Among the 54.8 million inhabitants of Brazil, 15.2 million people are in extreme poverty. The strategy of transferring basic income or universal minimum income to the poor population is absolutely necessary because a large part of it is unfit to be incorporated into the labor market. Without the basic income transfer policy or universal minimum income, hunger would be suffered by a large part of the Brazilian population The adoption of the basic income or universal minimum income policy for the poor population is one of the most effective solutions to alleviate poverty given that it would make it possible for the poor to have money to meet their basic needs in terms of food, health, housing, etc. The income transfer program of the Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments in Brazil, Bolsa Família, is a good example of the application of the basic income policy. A basic income policy for the poor would bring numerous advantages such as reducing crime, improving housing conditions for the poor population and increasing consumption of goods and services by the poor population. The government, provider of basic income for the poor population, would have the benefit of lower spending on police repression and the prison structure as a result of the reduction in crime and homeless people and the increase in tax collection resulting from the increase in consumption of the poor population. There will be no social peace in Brazil if unemployment is not eliminated and a basic income policy for the poor is not adopted. To eliminate violence in Brazil, the Brazilian government should meet the economic and social needs of the whole society, especially the poor populations, eliminating unemployment with the abandonment of the neoliberal economic model and the adoption of the national developmentalist economic model, the adoption of social and solidarity economy policy, the fight against poverty with the execution of income transfer and popular housing programs with the necessary infrastructure, the fight against organized crime and the restriction of the use of firearms by the population.
To eliminate inflation in Brazil, it is necessary to adopt strategies to eliminate demand inflation and production cost inflation, which are present in the Brazilian economy. Demand inflation results from the insufficiency of domestic production to meet demand and production cost inflation results from the increase in the costs of its components. To eliminate demand inflation, the Brazilian government should annually plan the national economy with the participation of the productive sector so that national production has the capacity to meet domestic demand for goods and services. The Brazilian government should plan to meet the expected demand for agricultural and industrial products, agricultural and industrial raw materials and inputs, and energy, transport and communications services, and monitor the evolution of production, demand and prices of agricultural and industrial, agricultural and industrial raw materials and inputs, and energy, transport and communications services to assess cases where there is a possibility of imbalances between supply and demand. Identified cases of imbalance between national supply and demand, the government should act to increase national production of missing items or import them when necessary. The priority of national production is to meet domestic demand. Only when there is surplus production would they be exported. The government must plan in advance the level of stocks of agricultural and industrial products, of raw materials and agricultural and industrial inputs, and of energy, transport and communications services to avoid shortages and, consequently, avoid demand inflation. In order to eliminate production cost inflation, the Brazilian government should monitor the evolution of the prices of wages, raw materials and inputs, as well as federal, state and municipal taxes, in order to adopt measures that help to avoid their increase without the corresponding increase of productivity, encourage increased productivity in agricultural, industrial, trade and services production and adopt measures to promote cost reductions in inefficient electrical energy and oil derivatives production systems with their rational planning and of cargo transport with its planning oriented primarily to the waterway and rail modes, as well as the reduction of public administration costs to reduce taxes.
In order to finance all the actions necessary for the execution of the government plan, two strategies must be adopted; 1) suspend for a period of 5 years the payment of interest and the amortization of the domestic public debt which corresponds to 48% of the budget of the federal government or renegotiate with its creditors in order to extend its payment to reduce the payment burden of public debt so that the government has the necessary resources for public investment; and, 2) use the international reserves of US$362.20 billion available in 2021, if necessary, to supplement the resources intended for public investments aimed at reviving the economy and combating unemployment and poverty. Without the adoption of these strategies, Brazil will not resume its growth and will inevitably be led to economic and social ruin.
Regrettably, nothing that has just been proposed is being done in Brazil by the Bolsonaro government to eliminate unemployment, poverty, violence and inflation at the current time. This proposed government plan is the reference that the majority of the Brazilian people should consider when choosing their preferred candidate for the Presidency of the Republic and candidates for state governments and for federal and state parliaments. These candidates should commit to defending and putting into practice this government plan. In addition to rejecting those candidates who seek to maintain the disastrous economic and social status quo, voters must repel candidates for elective positions that are demonstrably neo-fascists who attack democracy by threatening a coup d’état to establish a dictatorship in Brazil.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 82, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and IPB – Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021).
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