Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to demonstrate that Brazil is facing four crossroads in the next elections: political, economic, social and environmental crossroads. Each of the four crossroads produces two future scenarios for Brazil. The political crossroads facing the Brazilian people could lead Brazil to two scenarios in the next elections: the maintenance of democracy with the victory of democratic political forces or the end of democracy with the victory of the extreme right political forces. The economic crossroads facing the Brazilian people can lead Brazil to two scenarios: from the leverage of Brazil’s economic development with the elimination of its structural obstacles with the victory of progressive political forces, or from economic stagnation with Brazil maintaining the “status quo” with the meager economic growth similar to the “flight of chicken” that has marked the country in the last 40 years with the victory of retrograde and conservative political forces. The social crossroads facing the Brazilian people can lead Brazil to two scenarios: from achieving the social well-being of the Brazilian population with the elimination of its structural obstacles with the victory of progressive political forces or the maintenance of extreme social inequalities in Brazil maintaining the “status quo” with the victory of retrograde and conservative political forces. The environmental crossroads that Brazil faces can lead it to two scenarios: from achieving sustainable development with the victory of progressive political forces or maintaining environmental devastation in Brazil while maintaining the “status quo” with the victory of retrograde political forces and conservative. The future of Brazil depends on these choices to be made by the Brazilian people in the next elections.
It is worth noting that democratic political forces are understood to mean parties and organizations of civil society that are defenders of political and economic liberalism, social democracy and democratic socialism, while political forces of the extreme right are those constituted by parties and organizations of civil society that run for elections with the aim of seizing state power as the main strategy to implement a dictatorship that imposes its will on the nation as a whole. Progressive political forces are those made up of parties and civil society organizations that defend democracy and the country’s economic, social and environmental progress, while retrograde and conservative political forces are those made up of parties and civil society organizations with liberal, neoliberal, fascists and neo-fascists who seek to maintain the neoliberal economic model, existing social inequalities and aggression to the environment. The democratic and progressive political forces in Brazil are those that want to maintain and advance the democratic achievements expressed in the 1988 Constitution, while the extreme right-wing political forces reject what the 1988 Constitution establishes and the democratic institutions in force in the country. Not all forces that make up Brazil’s backward and conservative political forces are right-wing extremists. There are also in its composition, defenders of democracy, opponents, therefore, of dictatorship.
For the good of Brazil, the Brazilian people must choose, in the next elections, not only the candidates who defend democracy, but also those who are defenders of economic, social and environmental progress with the victory of progressive forces over the retrograde political forces that defend maintenance of the economic, social and environmental status quo, both for the Presidency of the Republic and for the state governments and federal and state parliaments. The Brazilian people therefore need to elect candidates as their rulers who are in favor of economic, political and social changes that contribute to reversing the disastrous scorched earth situation in which Brazil finds itself. It is necessary to elect candidates for the various elective positions who are committed to defending democracy and also promoting economic, social and environmental progress in full. Full economic, social and environmental progress means promoting economic, social and environmental development with a view to achieving social well-being for the entire Brazilian population without exception. Promoting economic, social and environmental development with the achievement of social well-being must translate into the implementation of an economic, social and environmental system that contributes to the maximum elevation of human and environmental development indicators in Brazil. In order for the new economic, social and environmental system, which aims to achieve social well-being for the entire Brazilian population, to be implemented, it is necessary to abandon the neoliberal economic model in force responsible for the economic, social and environmental disaster in Brazil in recent 40 years. Any candidate who defends the maintenance and seeks to maintain part or all of the neoliberal economic model in force must be rejected at the polls, even if he is a defender of democracy in our country.
It is not enough, therefore, for candidates who defend democracy to be elected. It is necessary that democratic candidates be chosen who also assume the commitment to put an end to the neoliberal economic model in force responsible for the economic and social disaster in Brazil of the last 40 years, developing a strategy to invent a new Brazil. In our book The invention of a new Brazil published by Editora CRV de Curitiba in 2017, we state on page 181 that, in order to invent a new Brazil, it is necessary to fulfill three stages: the first, in the short term, of recovering the Brazilian economy; the second, in the medium term, with the adoption of the national developmentalist model along the lines of the development model adopted by the countries of Asia (Japan, South Korea and China) as presented in subchapter 7.4 (Asia shows the paths of development) and, the third, in the long term, with the adoption of the social democratic model along the lines of that practiced in the Scandinavian countries with the necessary improvements and adaptation as presented in subchapter 7.7 (The model of social democracy to be built to invent a new Brazil in the long term).
The recovery of the Brazilian economy requires the immediate execution of 7 thousand stopped public works, the implementation of a large number of new public works, with emphasis on economic (energy, transport and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, housing and sanitation basic), the adoption of the import substitution policy and the utilization of idle capacity in the industry. In addition to these measures, it is necessary to suspend the payment of interest and amortization of the domestic public debt, which corresponds to 48% of the federal government budget, for a period of 5 years, or renegotiate with its creditors in order to extend its payment in order to reduce the costs with the payment of the public debt so that the government will have the necessary resources for public investments and use the international reserves of US$ 362.20 billion available in 2021, if necessary, to complement the resources destined to public investments aiming at reactivation of the economy.
The recovery of the Brazilian economy must have the immediate objective of eliminating unemployment and poverty that affect the vast majority of the population, in addition to contributing to the elimination of violence and inflation. In addition to the aforementioned measures aimed at the recovery of the Brazilian economy, it is also necessary to adopt our proposal presented in our book A invenção de um novo Brasil (The invention of a new Brazil), which consists of the implementation of strategies that lead, on the one hand, to an increase in public revenue. with: 1) taxation of large fortunes with assets above 1 billion reais, which could yield approximately 100 billion reais per year; and, 2) the increase in the tax on banks and, on the other hand, the decrease in government expenditures with: 1) the drastic reduction in the number of ministries and public bodies and in expenditures at all levels of government; and, 2) the drastic reduction of the economy’s basic interest rate (Selic) to reduce the size of the public debt and the burden of paying interest and amortizing public debt.
In our book A invenção de um novo Brasil (The invention of a new Brazil), we state that, once the recovery stage of the Brazilian economy has been completed, the stage of adoption of the national developmental model should be carried out along the lines of the development model adopted by the countries of Asia (Japan, South Korea and China) in which the government would act as a mentor and inducer of economic and social development. It should be noted that Japan, South Korea and China stood out, respectively in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, for the industrialization of their economies, but also, for their infrastructure, in the transport sector due to the high investment, which continues to be made in roads and railways, especially in China. Infrastructure investment policies have been a priority of the Chinese government since 1990. In Brazil, the fragility is gigantic in the economic (energy, transport and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, basic sanitation and housing) that demand resources on the order of BRL 2 trillion. Government action in Brazil is quite weak in the development of science, technology and innovation due to the fact that there is no industrial policy that points out effective solutions aimed at permanently reducing the production costs of the industry in Brazil compared to Asian countries, especially China.
In the book of our authorship mentioned above, we suggest that these solutions should be complemented with the adoption of measures aimed at: 1) overcoming the gigantic problems of education in Brazil at all levels; 2) the development of knowledge resources by adopting programs to establish R&D centers, strengthen universities, acquire technology and attract brains from abroad; 3) the adequate allocation of infrastructure resources, establishing effective programs to eliminate existing logistical bottlenecks; 4) encouraging links between companies’ production chains and their suppliers, eliminating existing gaps; and, 5) combating predatory competition from imported products by restricting or limiting their entry into the domestic market.
In our book A invenção de um novo Brasil (The invention of a new Brazil), we affirm that, after the adoption of the national developmentalist model in the medium term, a new model of society must be implemented, in the long term, that allows a civilized coexistence among all human beings in Brazil. This new model should be inspired by the existing social democracy in Scandinavia, where the most successful of them all was implemented, as shown in subchapter 7.3 (How to achieve economic and social progress), with the necessary improvements and adaptations. It was the social democracy built until today, especially in the Scandinavian countries, the only model of society that allowed the realization of economic, social, political and environmental progress without equal in the history of humanity, with the State acting as a mediator of conflicts between the interests of capital and of Civil Society. It is not by chance that the Scandinavian countries, in addition to having great economic and social successes, are leaders in the HDI (Human Development Index) in the world.
Despite the success of Scandinavian social democracy, the new social democratic model to be implemented in Brazil should result from the improvement of what is called Nordic or Scandinavian social democracy practiced in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland. The social democracy to be implemented in Brazil should therefore result from the improvement of the current Scandinavian model that would operate with a tripod structured around a neutral State, active Organized Civil Society and an efficient and effective Productive Sector (state and private). The neutral State would seek to make the interests of the Productive Sector (state and private) compatible with those of Civil Society, mediating their conflicts in various instances of the executive and legislative powers that, when consensus is not reached, the final decision would be up to the population who would decide democratically through plebiscite and/or referendum. In the new social democracy of Brazil, the action of monopoly groups and private cartels in the economy should not be allowed. Private companies would only operate in economic sectors where there was competition. State-owned or mixed-capital companies would occupy economic sectors where competition is not possible. This is the new Brazil that would need to be invented.
Given the above facts, it is up to the Brazilian people to decide in the next elections whether or not they want to reverse the scorched earth situation in which Brazil finds itself. For the good of Brazil and its people, there is no other rational decision to take other than maintaining democracy with the victory of democratic political forces, boosting Brazil’s economic development with the elimination of its structural obstacles with the victory of progressive political forces, the achievement of the social well-being of the Brazilian population with the elimination of its structural obstacles with the victory of progressive political forces and the achievement of sustainable development with the victory of progressive political forces. It is therefore up to the Brazilian people to elect the President of the Republic, governors and parliamentarians committed to democracy and, also, to the achievement of true economic, social and environmental progress.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 82, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and IPB – Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021).
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