Fernando Alcoforado*
Electoral polls carried out by several research institutes indicate that two candidates emerge as the electorate’s favorites in the race for the Presidency of the Republic, Lula and Bolsonaro, followed by Ciro Gomes with a wide difference. By considering Lula and Bolsonaro as their preferred candidates, the Brazilian people are not realizing that both have neoliberal economic programs that, in Bolsonaro’s case, is radically ultra-neoliberal, while in Lula’s case it incorporates developmental and humanist elements. Ciro Gomes, in turn, who presents the best economic program for Brazil because he is a national developmentalist, will hardly surpass Lula or Bolsonaro in the 1st round of the presidential elections. Everything leads us to believe that Lula should win the presidential elections because he has great advantage over Bolsonaro, according to electoral polls, and there is a tendency for various social sectors, such as the bourgeoisie and the upper middle class, who supported Bolsonaro, to adhere to the Lula’s candidacy further increasing his chances of winning the elections. Lula is seeking support from various center and right-wing political parties for his candidacy, in addition to trying to withdraw other presidential candidates so that they come to support him. Lula seeks support from segments of the economically dominant social classes (bourgeoisie) that were and still are mainstays of the Bolsonaro government. This strategy by Lula to increase political support aims to enable his victory in the presidential elections in the 1st round. Having won the elections, whether in the 1st or 2nd round, Lula intends to carry out a government similar to the one he performed from 2002 to 2010, making concessions to the economically dominant classes (bourgeoisie), to the center and right-wing political parties in parliament to win parliamentary majority and also to the subaltern classes (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpenproletariat) with the realization of social programs that meet the interests of these classes, especially in the fight against the misery of the poor population to ensure their governability.
Lula would try to repeat the government he held from 2002 to 2010. The question is whether the future Lula government would be able to overcome the country’s gigantic economic and social problems with the same policy adopted by his government from 2002 to 2010? The answer is no, because the country’s current economic and social problems have grown, demanding as a solution the rupture of the Brazilian government with the neoliberal economic model adopted since 1990, when the Brazilian economy began to be dictated by market forces. The solution would only come with the adoption of the national developmentalistist model adjusted to the new times in which the Brazilian government would assume the reins of the national economy. Without breaking with the neoliberal economic model and without the adoption of the national developmentalist model adjusted to the new times, the Brazilian economy will not grow and develop again and, consequently, the problems of unemployment, poverty, violence, inflation, deindustrialization and external dependence, among others, that profoundly affect Brazilian society today, will not be eliminated. It is very likely that the future Lula government will not break Brazil’s ties with neoliberalism and the country’s dependence on the outside world, after its victory in the elections because it is counting on being elected with the support of several segments of the economically dominant social classes of Brazil that would prevent the realization of the structural reforms necessary for the country. Despite this, Lula’s victory in the 1st or 2nd round of the presidential elections would, however, provide, as the main benefit for the majority of the Brazilian people, the fact of opening up the prospect of alleviating the country’s social crisis by avoiding the re-election of Bolsonaro who carried out the worst government in the history of Brazil, in addition to preventing the implantation of a dictatorship in the country desired by Bolsonaro.
This scenario described above is what would occur within the political-institutional normality with the holding of elections without any incident. Another alternative scenario to the one described above is related to the possibility that President Bolsonaro will carry out a coup d’état before or during the next elections to prevent Lula’s election in the face of his inevitable defeat at the polls. The coup d’état could take place on September 7 or on election days (October 2 in the 1st round or October 30 in the 2nd round) when Bolsonaro would try to mobilize his fanatical supporters to carry out acts that undermine democratic institutions and, consequently, make it unfeasible the holding of elections. Bolsonaro’s longstanding questioning of the reliability of electronic voting machines has been recurrent and can be used as a pretext to trigger the coup d’état before and during the elections. Bolsonaro’s attempted coup d’état is very likely to happen because he knows that he has no chance of winning the elections and that, without the presidential term, he will have to answer for the numerous crimes he has been committing and be arrested. Given this perspective, Bolsonaro will do anything not to be removed from power.
If the coup d’état to be perpetrated by Bolsonaro takes place, there will most certainly be contrary manifestations at the international level and strong contrary reactions from broad sectors of Brazilian society. Depending on the virulence of the coup d’etat, Brazil could be engulfed in a state of civil war that could result in a bloodbath of great proportions whose consequences are unpredictable. Two paths can result from the coup d’état: 1) Bolsonaro being unsuccessful in carrying out the coup d’état thanks to the prompt action of the democratic forces, being removed from power and democratic institutions being maintained in Brazil; and, 2) Bolsonaro being successful in carrying out the coup d’état while remaining in power and implementing a dictatorship. In the first case, he and his supporters will respond in court for the attempted coup d’état and, in the second case, his success would result from the support obtained from the Armed Forces, members of military police, militias and truck drivers, among others, for his dictatorial government. Assuming that Bolsonaro is successful in carrying out the coup d’état to prevent the holding of elections, he will not have the slightest condition to govern the country because he has no legitimacy for not having been reelected and does not have the support of the vast majority of the country Brazilian population that rejects him. It is worth noting that, in a presidential republic like Brazil, effective Governability is achieved when the Executive Branch has the support of the majority of the economically dominant social classes, the Parliament and broad sectors of civil society. Effective Governability would not be achieved by Bolsonaro’s dictatorial government for not meeting all these conditions.
In order to have governability in Brazil, Bolsonaro’s dictatorial government would need to meet the demands of the vast majority of the economically dominant classes (bourgeoisie) and of the various subaltern social classes (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpenproletariat) to obtain the support of Civil Society, as well as having a broad political base of support in Parliament to obtain the approval of its legislative projects. This is, therefore, the tripod of governability: 1) support from economically dominant social classes; 2) support from the various subaltern social classes; and, 3) majority support in Parliament. Bolsonaro will be able to count on the support of a considerable part of the economically dominant classes (bourgeoisie) and the majority of Parliament, but he will not have the support of the vast majority of the subordinate social classes (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpenproletariat). Thus, the existing conflict between the Bolsonaro government and civil society would deepen. It should be noted that Governability is only achieved when happens: 1) the most constructive relationship possible between the constituted powers of the Republic (Executive, Legislative and Judiciary); 2) the most constructive relationship possible between the constituted powers of the Republic and the governments of the component states of the Brazilian federation and municipalities; and, 3) the most constructive relationship possible between the constituted powers of the Republic and Civil Society. Even after the coup d’état, nothing guarantees that Bolsonaro will exercise the Governability of Brazil because, in addition to not having the legitimacy to exercise power, his relationship will not be constructive with the Legislative and Judiciary powers, with the state governments and, above all, with the civil society as it has been from 2018 to date. Governability expresses, in summary, the possibility of the government of a nation to carry out public policies resulting from the convergence between the various instances of the national State with each other and with the organizations of Civil Society. These are, therefore, the conditions for a government to exercise Governability that expresses, in short, the possibility of a nation’s government to carry out public policies that would not be the case of a dictatorial government of Bolsonaro.
In summary, Brazil will have two alternative futures resulting from the next presidential elections: 1) Neoliberalism with humanist social policies and democracy with Lula in power; and, 2) Ultra-neoliberalism with social tightening and dictatorship with Bolsonaro in power. I hope and wish that the future that best corresponds to the great interests of the vast majority of the Brazilian people prevail with the victory of democratic political forces.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 82, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and IPB – Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021).
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