Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present the objectives and limitations of COP27 in the fight against global climate change, which takes place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, between November 6 and 18, 2022. The UN began to bring together leaders and representatives of countries in 1995, after an agreement to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, signed during the Earth Summit, a conference held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Since then, other commitments have been signed during COP editions, such as the Kyoto Protocol, of 1997, which established the limit of emissions that the developed countries should reach until 2012, and the Paris Agreement, in 2015, that defined the limitation of the increase in the world average temperature to 1.5 °C and the expansion of climate action financing. Also in 2015, an emblematic year for debates on sustainable development, the 2030 Agenda was signed at the United Nations headquarters in New York. The plan, signed by 193 UN Member States, brings together 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 universal goals, created to eradicate poverty and promote a decent life for all.
COP 27 is the 27th UN climate conference, an event that brings together governments from around the world, diplomats, scientists, members of civil society and various private entities with the aim of debating and seeking solutions to the man-made climate crisis. More than 190 countries will participate in the summit, including Brazil. The conference has been held annually since 1995 (except in 2020, because of the pandemic) and the term COP is an acronym for “Conference of the Parties”, a reference to the 197 nations that agreed to a UN environmental pact in the beginning of the 1990s. The treaty, called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has the main objective of stabilizing the emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and, thus, combating the human threat to the Earth’s climate. There are six priorities for international climate action at COP 27 described below:
1) Create a specific financial mechanism to compensate for loss and damage
Compensating countries for losses and damages for serious risks from the climate crisis would apply to the case of rising sea levels that threatens island nations. Loss and damage refers to destructive damage that these countries cannot prevent or adapt to with their current resources. It should be noted that when we talk about adaptation, it means reducing impacts and when we talk about mitigation, it means reducing emissions. Losses and damages refer to the effects of climate change that have already occurred. At the end of COP26, held in Glasgow, in 2021, one of the issues discussed was how countries would meet the need for financing for losses and damages from climate change impacts so severe that it is no longer possible to solve them only with adaptation measures. Existing mechanisms to channel resources to reverse, minimize or deal with losses and damages are inadequate because specific resources would be needed in addition to additional funding for adaptation, humanitarian aid and development assistance. COP27 needs to start a process to formalize a financial agreement focused on damages.
2) Expand climate change adaptation measures
Adaptation – how to prepare for climate change – means adopting tools and solutions to reduce our fragility in the face of the climate crisis. The impacts of climate change have become more intense and require adaptation actions to be scaled up and accelerated so that they can meet the needs of vulnerable countries and communities. Funding needs to increase significantly to meet adaptation needs. At COP26, developed countries agreed to double funding for adaptation by 2025 (from 2019 levels), which amounts to approximately US$40 billion. Many parties have advocated putting even more resources into adaptation and that these resources be on a par with emissions reductions (the latest available data show that funding dedicated to adaptation represents only one-third of total climate finance). At COP27, developed countries also need to specify how they will ensure that this funding reaches those who need it most.
3) Mitigation – how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
These are efforts to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus limit warming to well below 2°C. The Glasgow Climate Pact established at COP26 called for countries to “review and strengthen” their 2030 emission reduction targets – the so-called nationally determined contributions, or NDCs – by the end of 2022. This must be done so that the national targets are in line with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Since COP26 so far, only 23 countries have announced new commitments. All countries, especially the largest emitters, must strengthen their emission reduction targets for 2030. These targets also need to be supported by public policies and, above all, investments in order to achieve them. In 2022, in a reaction to the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some of the European Union’s main greenhouse gas-emitting countries are restarting coal plants and calling on countries in Africa and elsewhere to seek of new gas suppliers. Time will tell whether these investments are temporary or will compromise national climate goals. Considering the lack of progress so far, the report will certainly show a gap between current emission targets and trends in countries and the levels needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
4) Ensure that the pledge of US$100 billion in climate finance is fulfilled and converted into new commitments
Once again climate finance will be a central topic at COP27. Climate finance, which is an already unfulfilled promise, will be a hot topic this year and not just because of the losses and damages. In 2009, developed countries committed to mobilizing US$100 billion a year to help developing nations with their climate action, but this commitment has not been fulfilled. Developed countries mobilized just US$83.3 billion in climate finance in 2020. An update of this plan and doubling of climate adaptation funding by 2025 needs to be launched at COP27. Making these resources viable is essential because it is a symbol of global solidarity and an important element in maintaining confidence in the multilateral system and accelerating climate action in developing countries. COP27 needs to ensure the certainty that the US$ 100 billion will be made possible by 2023.
5) Moving forward with the Global Balance to set a pace for climate action
The Paris Agreement established the Global Stocktake, which is a five-year process to assess collective progress against the agreement’s long-term goals. The first Global Review began in 2021, at COP26, and will end in 2023, at COP28, which should take place in the United Arab Emirates. COP26 opened the first Global Balance with a call to all countries and other non-state entities to contribute to the process by sending information. The Global Balance needs to devote the next year to technical analysis of collective progress towards the Paris Agreement goals, before arriving at COP28 with a package of policy measures that will drive action going forward. It is essential that the outcome of the Global Review is politically relevant and not just an information-sharing exercise with vague and impractical recommendations. COP27 can help guide the Global Balance by providing space for countries, experts and non-state entities to build a common vision.
6) Putting Glasgow’s climate commitments into action
In Glasgow, governments, companies and other actors have announced many promising commitments such as reducing methane emissions, reducing and reversing forest loss, aligning the financial sector with net zero by 2050 which means achieving a balance between greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere and those that are withdrawn, accelerate the pace of coal use reduction, double funding for adaptation by 2025 (from 2019 levels), scale up locally-led adaptation initiatives, and stop funding for fossil fuels . These promises need to be translated into concrete actions and include visible evidence of progress towards audacious goals. COP27 will take place in a scenario of instability, but it offers the possibility of promoting cooperation at a time when the world needs it most.
The holding of COP27 this year marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In the thirty years since then, the world has come a long way in the fight against climate change and its negative impacts on our planet. We are now able to better understand the science behind climate change, better assess its impacts and better develop tools to address its causes and consequences.
Despite the efforts made to prevent the worsening of climate change, the results obtained so far demonstrate that efforts have been insufficient to reach the objectives, given that each of the last eight years has been warmer than all known records so far, according to a report by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization). Officially, the international community promised to fight for this increase to remain at 1.5ºC, a goal that could be surpassed this decade. The year 2022 will be the fifth or sixth warmest known year, based on official records. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are so high that the 1.5°C target is almost unattainable. Glaciers in the Alps, for example, recorded a record loss of glacial mass in 2022, with a thickness reduction of 3 to 4 meters, much more than during the previous record of 2003. Methane emissions, for example, gas with great greenhouse effect, increased dramatically last year as global economic activity resumed after the pause caused by Covid-19.
The news about rising sea levels is also not good, due to the melting of the polar ice caps. Sea levels have risen by 10 millimeters since January 2022, which is equivalent to 10% of the increase recorded since satellite measurements began nearly 30 years ago. And the pace has doubled since 1993. The year 2022 was in the news for several catastrophic weather episodes. We know that some of these disasters, like the floods and heat in Pakistan, the floods and cyclones in southern Africa, Hurricane Ian, heat waves and drought in Europe, would not have been as severe if it weren’t for climate change. Across the planet, records are being broken as different parts of the climate system crumble.
The true solution of these problems will only happen when there is a profound transformation of the current society. The unsustainability of the current model of capitalist development is evident, since it has been extremely destructive to the conditions of life on the planet. In view of this, it is imperative to replace the current dominant economic model throughout the world with another that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. This needs to be considered at COP 27.
Another issue that COP 27 needs to consider is the adoption of measures that put an end to the proliferation of wars, which are also largely responsible for the planet’s environmental deterioration. Among the countless consequences of wars are the devastating effects on the environment. The bombing of military targets and civilian populations, the intense movement of military vehicles and troops, the high concentration of combat flights, the missiles launched over cities and the destruction of military and industrial structures during all these conflicts also cause the emission of metals and other substances that contaminate soil, water and air. In addition to environmental contamination, it is also necessary to consider the modification of natural landscapes and the long-term loss of biodiversity, either through the presence of landmines or chemical agents dispersed in the environment. This needs to be considered at COP 27.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that COP 27 needs to consider the need to build a governance system on planet Earth capable of guaranteeing that the planet’s environment is not threatened by catastrophic climate change and contributing to international relations that worsen the everyday do not feed the proliferation of wars. Without the adoption of a sustainable development model, measures that put an end to the proliferation of wars and the existence of a governance system on planet Earth that ensures the defense of the environment and world peace, humanity will not reverse climate change that tends to be catastrophic.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022)and a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022).
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