Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to demonstrate how the government of Brazil can make the energy sector sustainable in order to collaborate in the fight against global warming and to bequeath the existing energy resources in the country to future generations. According to the International Energy Agency, oil, natural gas and coal are the energy sources most responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Climate models referenced by the UN IPCC project that global temperatures will likely rise above 2°C by 2100 with catastrophic consequences for the planet’s climate (4). This scenario will only not happen if global CO2 and methane emissions are cut. In the world, the use and production of energy are responsible for 57% of the emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (3) (Table 1).
Table 1 – Main causes of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere
Source: Lashof, D.A. & Tirpak, D.A.orgs. Policy options for stabilizing global climate, Washington, DC,
In Brazil, the energy sector is responsible for 21% of greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 1).
Figure 1- Emission of greenhouse gases in Brazil
Source: https://ipam.org.br/brasil-tem-emissoes-estaveis-em-2018-desmatamento-cresceu-na-amazonia/
Everything leads to believe that powerful economic, environmental, political and social forces will push the world towards an energy system different from the current one, which must necessarily operate with much lower levels of fossil fuels. Solar energy, geothermal energy, wind energy, biomass energy and hydrogen energy will occupy more and more space in the world energy matrix in the future. Everything leads to believe that great efforts will also be made towards energy efficiency. The use of solar energy and other renewable energies will bring about changes of great magnitude across the planet, among them the creation of entirely new industries, the development of new transport systems and the modification of agriculture and cities.
The great challenge currently facing us is to continue with the development of new technologies that make efficient use of energy and economically use renewable resources. This is the alternative energy scenario required to avoid compromising the global environment. This means that profound changes in global energy policy must be put into practice to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, which account for 80% of the world’s energy supplies. Most people have little idea what an energy system not based on fossil fuels would look like. Nor do they seem to recognize that an alternative approach is possible. It is very possible that, among fossil fuels, natural gas is still used because it produces twice as much energy per kilogram of carbon released. Certainly, despite being a clean energy source, nuclear energy will not be used in a truly sustainable energy system. The accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima contributed to the drop in the expansion of nuclear power plants in the world.
New energy technologies are already available to initiate this historic energy transition that will only occur with fundamental changes in energy policy in the vast majority of countries. The first step is to redirect a large number of government policies so that they are aimed at realizing the core objectives of energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuels. For example: rewarding those who produce and purchase efficient motor vehicles, encourage mass transportation alternatives to the car, restructure energy industries and raise taxes on fossil fuels. The utilization of solar energy is likely to be the cornerstone of a world sustainable energy system. Sunlight is not only available in vast quantities; it is also more widely distributed in the world than any other source of energy. According to the Worldwatch Institute, in order to make a sustainable world energy system viable in 2030, oil consumption should be reduced to half of what occurred in 1989, coal consumption should correspond to 10% of its 1989 consumption, natural gas should maintain the its 1989 consumption and renewable energy sources should quadruple. With this global energy policy, it would be possible to halve the CO2 emissions recorded in 1989 (5).
1. The sustainable energy policy required for the electricity sector in Brazil
Brazil’s electrical system (Figure 2) involves a large infrastructure and a complex organization to make it work. It relies on the National Interconnected System (SIN), the National Electric System Operator (ONS), the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) and Eletrobras. The National Interconnected System (SIN) is a large network that extends across Brazil, bringing together several generation plants and an electricity transmission network that supply the country’s electricity demand with its subsystems in the Northeast, Southeast/Center-West, South and North. Most of the SIN is made up of hydroelectric plants, thermoelectric plants and, more recently, wind farms and photovoltaic solar plants. The last two types of plants are concentrated mainly in the Northeast region of the country. The existence of a network of almost 135 thousand km that interconnects the energy sources within the SIN brings several benefits, such as, for example, the minimization of the risks of interruption in the electricity supply (generating security) and greater efficiency of the electrical system, reducing costs of generation with the economy of scale obtained.
Figure 2- Interconnected electrical system and isolated electrical systems in Brazil
Source: https://journals.openedition.org/confins/10797
The National Electrical System Operator (ONS), which is a body created in 1998, supervised and regulated by ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), is responsible for coordinating and controlling the operations of the electricity generation and transmission facilities that are part of the SIN (National Interconnected System) in order to guarantee the safety and supply of electricity for the country. Isolated systems, that is, those that are not part of the interconnected electrical system, are also under its responsibility to integrate them into the operation. ANEEL’s main objective is to supervise and regulate the production, transmission, commercialization and distribution of electric energy in the national territory. Another attribution of ANEEL is to grant, authorize or permit installations and services of electric energy. In addition, ANEEL has the role of implementing policies in the sector, conducting auctions and concessions, managing contracts, establishing rules for energy services, creating methodologies for calculating tariffs, overseeing energy supply and mediating conflicts.
Eletrobras plays a fundamental role in the National Interconnected System (SIN) because it has the attribution of promoting studies, construction projects and operation of generating plants, transmission lines and substations destined to supply electric energy in the Country. The studies and projects for the construction and operation of generating plants, transmission lines and substations are carried out based on the planning of the electrical system in Brazil formulated by the Ministry of Mines and Energy through the Energy Research Company – EPE, whose purpose is to provide services in area of studies and research intended to subsidize the planning of the energy sector, covering electric energy, oil and natural gas and their derivatives and biofuels.
The main energy sources used in Brazil in 2021 by the electricity sector are shown in Figure 3. The analysis of Figure 3 shows that the electricity sector has 78.1% of renewable energy sources (hydraulics, biomass, wind and solar), 19.7% of non-renewable energy sources based on fossil fuels (natural gas, oil and coal and derivatives) and 2.2% from non-renewable energy sources based on nuclear power plants. This means that it is necessary to replace natural gas, petroleum derivatives, coal and its derivatives with renewable energy sources to progressively reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and avoid the expansion of nuclear power plants due to the risks they represent for the environment.
Figure 3- Electric Matrix in Brazil
Brazilian Electrical Matrix 2021 (BEN, 2022)
Source: https://www.epe.gov.br/pt/abcdenergia/matriz-energetica-e-eletrica
The Ministry of Mines and Energy prepared the National Energy Plan 2050 – PNE 2050, published on December 16, 2020, with a set of studies, guidelines and long-term strategies for the Brazilian energy sector [1]. The main energy sources considered by the PNE 2050 as alternatives for the expansion of the electric sector are hydroelectric, biomass, wind, solar, natural gas, mineral coal and nuclear. According to the PNE 2050, renewable energy sources account for about three quarters of the electricity matrix. The PNE 2050 considers that, in order to maintain the high share of renewables and low emissions in the long term, hydroelectric use still represents an important element for expanding the supply of electricity in the national interconnected system. According to the PNE 2050, the available inventoried potential of the UHEs is relatively small (52 GW). The hydroelectric source will reduce its relative participation in the electric matrix on the horizon until 2050. In terms of installed capacity, the relative participation may fall from 64% in 2015 to 31% in 2050, offset by an expansion from 15% to 45% of the relative participation from other renewable energy sources (biomass, wind and solar).
Brazil, due to its geographic location, receives high solar radiation that allows the development of viable solar projects in different regions. In this way, according to the PNE 2050, the photovoltaic solar source presents itself as a competitive alternative in the supply of energy, being able to contribute to the national commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. The PNE 2050 foresees a significant expansion of the photovoltaic solar source due to the perspective of evolution of its competitiveness in the horizon of 2050. In most cases, and taking into account only the centralized generation, the photovoltaic solar source will reach between 27 to 90 GW in terms of installed capacity and between 8 to 26 average GW in terms of energy in 2050, assuming around 5% to 16% of total installed capacity or 4% to 12% in terms of total energy in 2050. Such expansion will occur predominantly in the last decades until 2050, when this energy source will be more competitive. Additionally, it is noted that the solar source should fulfill the limitation in the expansion of HPPs in terms of installed capacity.
The total centralized installed capacity of solar photovoltaic energy in 2050 may exceed 100 GW if it is used in place of wind expansion or when the expansion of power transmission lines is limited. In these two cases, the installed capacity referring to photovoltaic projects in centralized generation will reach around 95 GW and 190 GW, respectively. Such values correspond to a participation of centralized solar energy between 18% and 30% of the total installed capacity of the system in 2050. Distributed generation, in which the photovoltaic solar source will represent little more than 85% of the installed capacity until 2050, its modularity, decreasing cost and diffusion of technology in society, would reach between 28 GW and 50 GW in 2050, which would represent 4% to 6% of the total load.
According to the PNE 2050, in the generation of electric energy, thermal generation has been an important complement to hydroelectric generation since the beginning of the 2000s. The hydroelectric source will reduce its relative participation in the electric matrix in the horizon until 2050. In terms of installed capacity , the relative share may fall from 64% in 2015 to 31% in 2050, offset by an expansion from 15% to 45% of the relative share of other renewable energy sources (biomass, wind and solar). The tendency to reduce hydroelectric participation in generation and the entry into operation of run-of-the-river hydroelectric plants with a strongly seasonal profile, in the North Region, create a greater need for generation by other energy sources in the dry period, complementing the requirement of system energy. With the gradual reduction in the relative share of hydroelectric plants in the Brazilian electricity matrix, replaced by the expansion of non-controllable renewable energies, other resources, such as natural gas thermoelectric plants, will be increasingly important to meet the various requirements of the electrical system.
According to PNE 2050, hydrogen is currently used as a raw material in the synthesis of various products and in industrial processes. The energetic use of hydrogen has been known for a long time. Research and development of fuel cell technologies have been developed with the aim of enabling their use in the production of electricity and in the transport sector. Like electricity, hydrogen can be considered an efficient way to store and transport energy. Among the alternatives for hydrogen production, the green route (water electrolysis from renewable electricity sources) is considered the most internationally relevant and Brazil is recognized worldwide as a potential major player in this segment, according to the PNE 2050.
The PNE 2050 presents an important contribution in the fight against global warming by promoting the use of renewable energy sources in the expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector. However, it proposes thermal generation using natural gas as an important complement to hydroelectric generation when it could use wind energy sources and hydrogen, for example, to fulfill this role. The sustainable energy policy required for Brazil in the electricity sector [2] should also consider greater use of the country’s wind, solar, biomass, tides, waves and hydrogen potential in addition to the use of hydroelectric potential. The PNE 2050 should also consider the use of a power of 1.3 GW in thermoelectric plants using urban waste. The PNE 2050 committed the absurdity of admitting the most significant entry of thermonuclear power plants of 8 GW and 10 GW in the PNE 2050 horizon, disregarding the risks they represent.
The Brazilian electrical system, which currently has numerous weaknesses in its planning when defining or choosing projects to be implemented, many of them harmful to the environment, would be radically modified with the implemented energy policies aimed at zeroing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In this sense, the current energy policies that foresee the implementation of large hydroelectric power plants in the Amazon that will produce serious environmental impacts on the Amazon forest and indigenous peoples, the implementation of nuclear power plants subject to the risk of accidents and with problems of final disposal of atomic residues and the implementation of conventional thermoelectric plants based on fossil fuels (mineral coal and natural gas) generating CO2 emissions into the atmosphere would be abandoned.
The sustainable energy policy required for the electricity sector in Brazil should include the adoption of the measures described below:
• Program the progressive abandonment of energy sources based on fossil fuels (petroleum derivatives, mineral coal and its derivatives) in electricity generation to eliminate the emission of greenhouse gases and energy sources based on nuclear power plants to eliminate the risk they represent for the environment.
• Use natural gas as a substitute for fuel oil in industry in steam and electricity cogeneration systems, because it is the fossil fuel that is less harmful to the environment.
• Deploy PCH’s (small hydroelectric plants) or medium-sized hydroelectric plants, as well as wind turbines in various regions of Brazil.
• Deploy wind farms and hybrid systems in the most appropriate locations.
• Deploy photovoltaic or thermosolar solar energy systems wherever their deployment is justified.
• Use tidal and wave energy.
• Produce energy using biogas from landfills.
• Produce energy on a small or medium scale and distributed in markets close to the sources of production instead of concentrated production of electricity through large hydroelectric power stations far from energy consumer markets.
• Complementing the production of electricity with the use of wind turbines and solar photovoltaic or thermosolar energy systems where their implementation is justified.
• Produce energy in the medium and long term using hydrogen.
• Abandon nuclear power plants as an energy alternative because they are expensive and have safety problems.
• Save energy in all sectors of activity in the country.
• Implement a cogeneration system in the industry to produce steam and electricity using waste from industrial production and natural gas.
• Increase reliability in the operation of the interconnected electrical system to minimize the effects of blackouts with the use of duplicated protection systems at critical supply points, the duplication of important trunk transmission lines and the use of wind turbines and photovoltaic solar energy systems nearby of the electrical network.
2. The sustainable energy policy required for the oil, natural gas and mineral coal sector in Brazil
The main energy sources used in Brazil in 2021 are shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4- Brazil’s energy matrix
Brazilian Energy Matrix 2021 (BEN, 2022)
Source: https://www.epe.gov.br/pt/abcdenergia/matriz-energetica-e-eletrica
The analysis of Figure 4 shows that 45.4% of the energy sources used in Brazil are renewable sources of energy (derived from sugar cane, hydraulics, firewood and charcoal and other renewables), 53.3% are non-renewable sources of energy based on fossil fuels (oil and derivatives, natural gas and mineral coal) and 1.3% are non-renewable energy sources based on nuclear power plants. This means saying that the Brazilian energy matrix is not sustainable because it presents a large proportion of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases. To make Brazil’s energy system sustainable, It is necessary to replace 53.3% of non-renewable energy sources based on oil and derivatives, natural gas and mineral coal with renewable energy sources with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming to zero.
2.1- Oil and natural gas production in Brazil
Exploration and production of oil and natural gas (Figures 5 and 6) are the main activities of Petrobras, which seeks to increase its reserves and develop production to meet the growing demand for oil products and natural gas in Brazil. Petrobras’ oil and natural gas exploration and production activities include offshore and onshore exploration, appraisal, development, production and incorporation of oil and natural gas reserves. With persistence, Petrobras has developed technology to operate at sea, in deep waters, since the 1970s in the Campos Basin. Today, pre-salt production in ultra-deep waters is already a consolidated reality. Petrobras’ activities are focused on oil reservoirs in deep and ultra-deep waters in Brazil, which accounted for 95% of all production in 2021. Most of Brazil’s oil reserves are in offshore fields.
Figure 5- Oil and natural gas production areas in Brazil
Source: https://bizbrazilmagazine.com/webinar-focado-em-producao-de-petroleo-e-gas-natural-no-brasil/
Figure 6- Infrastructure for the production and handling of natural gas in Brazil
2.2- Mineral coal production in Brazil
Known for its black color, mineral coal is an ore extracted from underground through the mining process. Mineral coal is a fossil fuel, made up of magnesium and carbon atoms. The coal transformation process is defined in stages. At first, peat is formed, then lignite, then bituminous coal and finally anthracite, which is a purer form of coal rich in carbon, compact, hard and does not produce an odor during its burning. Mineral coal in Brazil supplies, in particular the thermoelectric plants that consume about 85% of the coal production, the country’s cement industry with approximately 6%, 4% for the production of cellulose paper and only 5% in the food and ceramics industries and grains. Regarding the production of mineral coal, the highlight goes to the South region, which is the largest producer in Brazil, with the main reserves being in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul (Figure 7).
Figure 7- Areas of the main occurrences of mineral coal in Brazil
Source: http://www.oleodieselparageradores.com.br/producao-e-consumo-de-petroleo-parte-2-carvao-mineral/
2.3- The energy policy required for the oil, natural gas and mineral coal sector in Brazil
The PNE 2050 (1) considers the expansion of production and consumption of oil and its derivatives to meet its demands in Brazil until 2050, when the correct thing would be its reduction with the progressive abandonment of its production and its replacement in the transport sector gasoline by ethanol, diesel oil by biodiesel, and, in industry, of fuel oil for natural gas because it is the cleanest fossil source between fossil fuels in the short term and hydrogen in the medium and long term. Petroleum derivatives should be used for more noble uses in the petrochemical and fine chemical industries. A great irrationality of the 2050 PNE also resides in the fact that it considers the expansion of the supply of oil derivatives and the expansion of the infrastructure for handling these products to meet the growing domestic demand, compromising the fight against global climate change.
For Brazil to collaborate in order to prevent catastrophic climate changes on our planet, the sustainable energy policy required for the oil, natural gas and mineral coal sector in Brazil should include the adoption of the measures described below:
• Program the progressive abandonment by Petrobras of the production of oil derivatives for the generation of electricity and for the transport sector and transform Petrobras into a producer of clean and renewable energy (solar, wind, alcohol, biodiesel and hydrogen).
• Make Petrobras produce petroleum derivatives exclusively for the petrochemical and fine chemical industry and maintain the production of natural gas as it is the cleanest fossil fuel.
• Progressively reduce the consumption of oil and its derivatives in Brazil by adopting policies aimed at implementing programs that contribute to its replacement by other energy resources. In this sense, it is necessary to: 1) replace gasoline with ethanol and diesel with biodiesel in the short term in the transport sector; 2) replace gasoline and diesel oil by hydrogen in the medium and long term in the transport sector; 3) replace fuel oil by natural gas, biomass and hydrogen in industry; 4) replace LPG with natural gas, which is less polluting in the residential, commercial and service sectors; and, 5) manufacture of electric and hybrid automobiles that are powered by electricity and use liquid fuels.
• Program the progressive abandonment of mineral coal production for energy purposes in Brazil, replacing it with briquette, which has a caloric power 2.5 times greater than firewood and five times greater than coal, and is produced through a process known as briquetting that has sawdust as raw material.
• Execute programs that contribute to reducing oil consumption through energy saving actions. These policies are as follows: 1) to produce steam and electricity in industry using cogeneration systems; 2) encourage car and truck assemblers to increase the efficiency of motor vehicles to save fuel; 3) expand rail and waterway systems to transport cargo instead of trucks; 4) expand the public transport system, especially high-capacity mass transport such as the metro and VLT to reduce car use in cities; 5) restrict the use of automobiles in centers and other areas of cities; 6) encourage the manufacture of more efficient machinery and equipment to save energy; and, 7) use petroleum derivatives for non-energy purposes, mainly as industrial raw material.
3. Conclusions
Due to the above, Brazil and the planet as a whole are currently faced with the imperative need to replace fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) with clean and renewable energy sources to avoid the catastrophic climate change that will occur with maintaining the current energy policy, as well as adopting energy efficiency or energy saving measures to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Clean energy concerns every source of energy that does not emit polluting substances. This is the most basic and succinct definition of clean energy. Its production and consumption are important for protecting the environment and improving people’s quality of life.
The clean energy sources to be used preferably are renewable ones such as hydroelectric, solar, wind, hydrogen, geothermal, tidal, wave and biomass. Exceptionally, nuclear energy may be used as a source of energy, which would have restrictions due to the risks it represents, and natural gas, as it is the fossil fuel that is less aggressive to the environment. Clean energy sources are already a reality around the world. The future of the energy sector in Brazil and around the world will necessarily mean the use of clean and renewable energy sources. Clean and renewable energy is a concrete alternative to face environmental degradation and the misuse of the planet’s natural resources. The use of clean and renewable energy is, without a doubt, the rational way to guarantee the sustainability of planet Earth for current and future generations.
REFERENCES
1. MINISTÉRIO DAS MINAS E ENERGIA. PNE 2050- Plano Nacional de Energia. Available on the website <https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-227/topico-563/Relatorio%20Final%20do%20PNE%202050.pdf>.
2. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. A política energética sustentável requerida para o Brasil. Available on the website <file:///C:/Users/Fernando%20Alcoforado/Downloads/9251-Texto%20do%20Artigo-26098-1-10-20140129.pdf>.
3. LASHOF, D.A. & TIRPAK, D.A.orgs. Policy options for stabilizing global climate. Washington, DC: Environmental Protection Agency, 1989.
4. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Global climate change and its solutions. Available on the website <https://www.heraldopenaccess.us/openaccess/global-climate-change-and-its-solutions>.
5. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Energia no mundo e no Brasil. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2015.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022) and How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023).
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