Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to demonstrate that the irresponsibility of the Joe Biden government of the United States in conducting the war against Russia in Ukraine that completes a year can lead to the 3rd World War. The Joe Biden government of the United States acts irresponsibly, putting the world in front of the possibility of a nuclear hecatomb by increasing hostilities with Russia in Ukraine and not seeking a peace negotiation. It is very likely that, by invading Ukraine, the purpose of the Russian government, commanded by Wladimir Putin, would probably be to create the conditions to negotiate with the United States government the commitment to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of the NATO that it would represent a threat to Russian security. It is worth noting that the attempt to incorporate Ukraine into NATO would serve the US government’s geopolitical interests because it would complete the encirclement of Russia. Figure 1 shows in blue color the countries that joined NATO until 1997 and in orange color the countries that joined it from 1997 onwards. Ukraine joining NATO would increase military pressure against Russia.
Figure 1- The encirclement of Russia by NATO in Europe
Source: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-60129112
Regarding NATO, it is important to note that after World War II, the United States and its European allies united militarily to confront the Soviet Union and its allies. This union resulted in the constitution of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in 1949 under the leadership of the United States. In turn, the Soviet Union formed a military alliance with the socialist countries creating the Warsaw Pact. With the end of the Soviet Union and, in 1989, the Warsaw Pact fell apart, but NATO was maintained and expanded to meet the geopolitical interests of the United States with the incorporation of countries that belonged to the Warsaw Pact, as well as with the recent accession from Finland and Sweden. It is worth noting that one of NATO’s pillars is to guarantee the security of its member countries, which can occur diplomatically or with the use of military forces. NATO member countries provide part of their military contingent for eventual actions of this size, since the organization does not have its own military force.
NATO counted during the Cold War until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1989 with 16 countries: 1) Germany; 2) Belgium; 3) Canada; 4) Denmark; 5) Spain; 6) United States; 7) France; 8) Greece; 9) Netherlands; 10) Iceland; 11) Italy; 12) Luxembourg; 13) Norway; 14) Portugal; 15) Turkey; 16) United Kingdom. To meet the geopolitical interests of the United States and the war industry, NATO expanded after the end of the Soviet Union, attracting 14 more countries that were part of the socialist system of Eastern Europe, such as Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Czech Republic and Romania. More recently, Finland and Sweden joined NATO.
In the case of the Ukraine war, the diplomatic behavior of the Joe Biden administration of the United States towards Russia was different from the behavior of the Kennedy administration in the case of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 towards the Soviet Union. Rather than trying to negotiate a negotiated peace solution to the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration preferred confrontation by establishing economic sanctions against Russia and its citizens, as well as arming the government of Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion. US military and non-military spending on Ukraine exceeds $50 billion. Biden himself, in a statement given on October 6, 2022, during a Democratic Party event in New York, sees the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” — final war — which is at the highest level since the Cold War, citing that Putin “not kidding” when he talks about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, chemical or biological weapons, because his Army is significantly less capable. According to him, the use of a nuclear weapon could get out of control and lead to global destruction. This statement demonstrates that Biden acts irresponsibly because he knows the risk of a nuclear hecatomb and does nothing to avoid it by seeking a diplomatically negotiated solution with Russia as Kennedy did in 1962 with the Soviet Union.
Joe Biden’s irrationality in maintaining the US conflict with Russia is explained by four reasons: 1) he seeks to secure the interests of the US war industry with increased military spending and the expansion of NATO; 2) with the increase in military spending, he seeks to avoid the worsening of the economic crisis in the United States, which should enter into recession in 2023; 3) he seeks to improve his popularity internally by completing two years of a mandate that is at a low point with only 40% of the American population approving his government; and, 4) seeks to serve the interests of US suppliers of LNG (liquefied natural gas) by transferring Europe’s dependence on natural gas from Russia to the United States.
It is no secret that there is a military industrial complex in the United States that makes all American rulers hostage to it. Who is most interested in the armed conflict in Ukraine? There is no doubt that the main stakeholder in the conflict is the arms industry in the United States with the sale of arms to NATO and their supply to Ukraine. The US Congress passed a bill called “Protect Ukraine” to supply Ukraine with weapons. The same is happening with other NATO countries. Question: Even well armed, would Ukraine be able to win the war with Russia? The answer is no. In addition to the vast military superiority, Russia is an atomic power, which makes a direct confrontation of NATO allies impossible due to the possibility of a nuclear hecatomb. However, almost all countries in the region are buying weapons, military equipment and ammunition. All of this demonstrates that the Biden government seeks to secure the interests of the US arms industry with the expansion of NATO.
It is no coincidence that the US defense industry is the largest in the world. Of the 10 largest arms manufacturers in the world, six are American, five of which are leaders in the world arms industry, as shown in the following table:
There is no doubt that the war industry sponsors the war in Ukraine as it has promoted other wars in the past to make money. The record production of weapons, increasingly lethal and surgical, needs to be put to work in practice.
Figure 2 presents the highest military spending in the world by country. The United States has the highest military spending in the world (39% of the total).
Figure 2- The highest military spending in the world by country
With 102 wars in its bellicose “curriculum”, the United States is probably one of the countries most involved in military actions in the world that began with the annexation of Mexico’s land to its territory and the conquest of the Panama Canal. It is no coincidence that the United States is one of the countries that most benefit economically from armed confrontations, since the largest arms exporters in the world are American. In addition to selling ammunition and weapons, the United States also monetizes with security contracts and military training, which makes many members of the US Congress understand wars as a machine to generate jobs and money. Peace, for the United States, could be very costly. It is these facts that lead many to question the real motivation of the United States in defending Ukraine, which for years has lived in a state of tension with Russia. It is evident that, as long as there is a war industry in the world, wars will continue to proliferate across the planet. Peace in the world will only happen when all countries are disarmed and the manufacture of weapons ceases.
From the foregoing, the responsibility of the United States government for the outbreak of a new world war is evident because, since 1997, it promoted the expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia, which would be completed with the incorporation of Ukraine into the western military alliance, in addition to imposing economic sanctions against the Russia. The governments of the European Union countries are also responsible for the outbreak of a new world war because they are contributing to the irrationality of the Joe Biden government in the conflict with Russia. The UN, in turn, is largely responsible for the outbreak of a new world war because it has not contributed to seeking an end to the war in Ukraine and, on the contrary, is collaborating to intensify it with the anti-Russia resolutions approved by the General Assembly.
How to celebrate peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine and make wars come to a definitive end on our planet, fulfilling Immanuel Kant’s dream expressed in his work “Perpetual Peace”? How to make the dream of all peace lovers come true in the world we live in? The war between Russia and Ukraine will only come to an end if its causes are eliminated. There are two causes of the war: 1) the expansion of NATO, a western military alliance, towards Russia’s borders; and, 2) the desire of the government of Ukraine to join NATO, which would complete the encirclement of Russia making this country vulnerable. These were the two reasons that contributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to overthrow the far-right government presided over by Volodymyr Zelenskyy and eliminate the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Attempts to celebrate peace between the governments of Russia and Ukraine were unsuccessful and what is observed is the increase in the bloodbath of soldiers on both sides and the Ukrainian civilian population, the increase in refugees and the destruction of the infrastructure of the Ukraine by Russian bombing. The celebration of peace in Ukraine did not produce advances because the ones who should negotiate it would be the governments of the United States and Russia because only these governments would have the capacity to eliminate the causes of war.
It is urgent to conclude a peace agreement between presidents Biden and Putin to end the war in Ukraine because the war between Russia and Ukraine could evolve into a conflict that would extend across Europe and the world, turning into a world war. If this were to happen, it would pave the way for the involvement of major military powers with unpredictable consequences with the use of nuclear weapons. Everyone needs to understand that the war in Ukraine is the scene of the dispute between Russia and the United States. On the one hand, we have the United States, which wants a NATO presence in Ukraine, and on the other, we have Russia, which does not want a NATO presence in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine will only come to an end if Biden and Putin reach an agreement on ending the conflict between Russia and the United States. The initial deal between Biden and Putin could be for Russia to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine on the condition that the United States withdraws from Ukraine’s membership of NATO. The ultimate deal would be for Russia to end its hostilities in Ukraine by liberating the occupied areas in that country and assuming the burden of rebuilding what was destroyed by war on condition that the United States and NATO abandon the eastern European countries and assume the commitment to remove the economic and financial sanctions adopted against Russia.
The deal between Biden and Putin would be advantageous for Ukraine, Russia, the United States, Europe and the world. Ukraine would gain from this agreement because it would end the suffering of its population, remove the military occupation of its territory by Russia, recover its sovereignty over the national territory and have the reconstruction of the country carried out by Russia. Russia would gain from this agreement because there would be the removal of economic and financial sanctions against it adopted by the United States and its western allies, there would be the abandonment of NATO’s claim to Ukraine’s membership as one of its member countries and the commitment of the United States and NATO’s decision to exclude 14 Eastern European countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic). The United States would gain from the agreement because the destabilization of its economy would no longer occur with the increase in the public deficit resulting from the growing military expenses with the war in Ukraine. Europe would gain from the agreement because the threat of the cessation of oil and natural gas supplies from Russia and the destabilization of its economies would disappear. The world would gain from the agreement because the threat of a new world war that would lead to the end of the human species would disappear.
For Biden and Putin to conclude this peace agreement, it is necessary that the UN, through its secretary general, leave its passivity and seek the celebration of world peace and that China and all peace-loving countries mobilize in order to achieve it. In order to permanently remove new risks of a new world war and for perpetual peace to materialize on our planet, it would be necessary to reform the current international system, which is incapable of guaranteeing world peace. The new international system should function on the basis of a Planetary Social Contract. The Planetary Social Contract would be the Constitution of planet Earth. For the preparation of the Planetary Social Contract, there should be a convening of a Constituent World Assembly with the participation of representatives of all the countries of the world elected for this purpose. The Planetary Social Contract should establish the existence of a world Government whose president should be elected with more than 50% of the votes of the world Parliament to be, also, constituted democratically.
To ensure democratic practice and governability on planet Earth, world power should be exercised by the world Parliament that, in addition to electing the President of the world government, should prepare and approve international laws based on the Planetary Social Contract. The world Parliament should be composed of a determined and equal number of representatives from each country democratically elected for this purpose. The President of the World Government will only exercise the command of the World Government as long as he has the support of the majority of the Parliament. If, by majority of the Parliament, there is a need to replace the President of the World Government this must be done. The World Government must have an organizational structure that is capable of dealing with international relations, the military issue, the global economy, the global environment, education, health, infrastructure, science and technology, among others, to dialogue with the world Parliament and the countries that make up the international system.
Parliamentarians should elect the governing board of the world Parliament that would have an appropriate organizational structure. The World Supreme Court should be composed of high level jurists from the world chosen by the world Parliament who would act for a determined time and who would elect the President of the Court to serve a determined term. The World Supreme Court should judge cases involving disputes between countries, crimes against humanity and against nature committed by national States and by rulers in the light of the Planetary Social Contract, judge conflicts that exist between the world government and the world Parliament and act as guardian of the Planetary Social Contract. The World Government will not have its own Armed Forces, having to count on the support of the Armed Forces of the countries that would be summoned when necessary.
Therefore, with this system the world parliament would successfully legislate through a democratic process. There would be no need for an entity that would act as a world police officer because the one who would exercise power would be the President of the world government who would use the Armed Forces of certain countries that would be summoned when necessary. The new rule of international law would be enforced by the three constituted powers: World Government, World Parliament, and World Supreme Court. World power would rest in the world Government, the world Parliament and the world Supreme Court. World power would neither corrupt nor be corrupted because there would be vigilance from all the authorities. World Government, World Parliament and World Supreme Court would act as checks and balances aimed at the efficiency and effectiveness of the international system.
These are, therefore, the measures that should be adopted in the short term to end the war in Ukraine and, in the medium and long term, to definitively end wars in the world.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022) and How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023).
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