Fernando Alcoforado*
This article represents the continuation of the article whose title is Como fazer com que as utopias planetárias se realizem visando a construção de um mundo melhor (How to make planetary utopias come true with a view to building a better world) [1]. This article is the seventh of 12 articles that address the 12 planetary utopias that need to be realized in order to build a better world and contribute to the achievement of happiness for human beings, individually and collectively. This article aims to present how to make the seventh of the considered utopias, the end of economic and social chaos at the national and global levels, come true with economic planning in each country and globally.
Capitalism is a complex, dynamic, adaptive and non-linear system because it has elements or agents in a large number that interact with each other forming one or more structures that originate from the interactions between such agents [2]. Complex systems are systems that are characterized by being dynamic, whose fundamental characteristics are their sensitive dependence on initial conditions, whereby minimal differences at the beginning of any process can lead to completely opposite situations over time.
The book As leis do caos (The Laws of Chaos) [3] informs that Chaos Theory explains the functioning of complex and dynamic systems. In these systems, numerous elements are interacting in an unpredictable and random way. This is the case in the capitalist market economy because there is no effective governance of the economic system. It should be noted that the author of the article, Ilya Prigogine, commenting on bifurcation points in chemical reactions, states that “they demonstrate that even at a macroscopic level our prediction of the future mixes determinism and probability. At the bifurcation point, the prediction has a probabilistic character, whereas between the bifurcation points, we can speak of deterministic laws”.
The author of the book O Ponto do Caos (The Point of Chaos), Ervin Laszlo, [4] defends the thesis that systems enter a state of chaos when fluctuations that were, until then, corrected by self-stabilizing negative feedbacks get out of control. The developmental trajectory becomes non-linear: prevailing trends collapse and in their place arise various complex developments. Rarely is chaos a prolonged condition; in most cases, it is just a transitory time between more stable states. When fluctuations in the system reach levels of irreversibility, the system reaches a critical point where it either collapses into its individual stable components (collapse) or undergoes rapid evolution toward a state resistant to the fluctuations that destabilized it (revolutionary breakthrough). If this revolutionary advancement path is selected, the system evolves into a state in which it has enhanced information processing capability and greater efficiency in the use of free energy, as well as more flexibility, greater structural complexity, and additional levels of organization.
Figure 1, below, shows what happens to a dynamic system when it is subject to “fluctuations” that lead it to a bifurcation point from which the system reaches a new dynamic stability (revolutionary advance) or collapses. Figure 1 shows that at the bifurcation point the system has to be restructured or it will collapse.
Figure 1- Dynamic systems
Source: O Ponto do Caos (The Point of Chaos). São Paulo: Editora Cultrix, 200.
When subject to “fluctuations”, a dynamic system is brought to a bifurcation point from which the system reaches a new dynamic stability (revolutionary advance) or collapses. At the bifurcation point, the system has to be restructured or it will collapse. This is the situation experienced by the world economy, which, after the crisis that broke out in 2008 in the United States and spread across the planet, there was no restructuring of the national and world economic systems. The path of revolutionary advancement, which would lead to overcoming the world economic crisis that erupted in 2008 and has not been resolved to date, would require restructuring the world economic system, transforming it into a self-organizing system, sensitive to feedback and adapting to the new environment and learning through their experience.
The article Urge o Keynesianismo global e o governo mundial para ordenar a economia mundial (Urging global Keynesianism and world government to order the world economy) [5] demonstrates that the Keynesian economic policy adopted globally and the existence of a world government are the solutions to eliminate the chaos that characterizes the world economy today. The Keynesian model was originally formulated to be applied in each country. John Maynard Keynes believed that capitalism could overcome its structural problems as an economic system provided that significant reforms were made as he proposed given that liberal capitalism, which dominated the world economy until 1945, had proved incompatible with maintaining full employment and of economic stability. Economic Keynesianism is opposed to the ideals of economic liberalism and neoliberalism, which value individual initiative and non-intervention by the State in the market. Liberalism, based on the ideas of Adam Smith, defended that the market was capable of self-regulation, as it is governed by the law of supply and demand.
Keynesianism, adopted after World War II, contributed decisively to the economic development of most countries in the world from 1945 to 1965, which is called the “golden age”. Keynesianism ceased to be effective in the 1970s with the drop in world economic growth after the so-called “glorious years” (1945/1965), because it was not able to solve the two oil crises and the debt crisis of most countries in the world that became insolvent with international banks. It should be noted that in the “glorious years” (1945/1965), rates of economic growth and job and income generation unique, that is, without similar, were recorded in the world economy and the combination of economic growth with fully employed labor, with reasonable wages and protected by the welfare state especially in Western European countries.
Keynesianism has been replaced by neoliberal globalization. Keynesianism was abandoned as the dominant economic thought in the 1980s and replaced by neoliberal economic thought that opposes Marxist economic thought and Keynesian neoclassical liberal thought of social welfare and proposes the restoration of classical liberal economic thought based on a vision conservative economics that intends to reduce as much as possible the participation of the State in the economy, not only at the national level, but also at the world level, whose expectation was to promote the resumption of growth in the world rate of profit of the capitalist system [5]. The article O fracasso do neoliberalismo no mundo (The failure of neoliberalism in the world) [6] informs that the factors that triggered neoliberal globalization were, on the one hand, the crisis of the world capitalist system with the decline of the process of capital accumulation on a world level, aggravated by the tripling of prices oil, literally the fuel of capitalism, in 1973 and again in 1979, when there was also a huge increase in American interest rates, which caused, in the 1980s, the so-called “external debt crisis” in peripheral capitalist countries. The crisis of the world capitalist system took place on several levels: politics, economy, social life, externally and internally in all countries. The whole crisis was demonstrated through the increase in unemployment, the fall in investment levels and the reduction in the profitability of capital, the fiscal crisis of national states, etc. The answer to this was neoliberalism, on the basis of which new ideologies, new forms of administration, management and production were adopted. On the other hand, the end of the Soviet Union and the socialist system in Eastern Europe also contributed to the fact that several countries that adopted socialism in Russia and Eastern Europe, as well as some countries that adopted the Welfare State in Western Europe as a capitalist counterpoint to the socialist system replace them with the neoliberal model.
However, the neoliberalism that replaced Keynesianism failed, too, because the world profit rate and world economic growth continued to decline, not preventing the outbreak of the 2008 world crisis and chaos settled in the world economy thanks to the absence of economic and global finance regulation [5]. The failure of neoliberal globalization took shape in the outbreak of the 2008 world crisis that broke out in the United States in the mortgage-lending sector, which immediately spread to other parts of the world financial system, with a speed and scope that surprised the market. The Asian Development Bank has estimated that financial assets around the world may have fallen by more than US$50 trillion – a figure equivalent to annual global output. The financial system suffered losses on a scale that no one ever predicted. The international financial system no longer works. The neoliberal model that ruled the world for the last 40 years has died and there will be a depression that will last for many years.
The inevitable result of neoliberal globalization was the increase in the global imbalance in trade, savings and investment and in social inequality materialized in the excessive concentration of wealth around the world [6]. This global imbalance in trade, savings and investment was the result of the crisis that erupted in the United States in 2008 and spread across the world, compromising the financial systems of the United States, United Kingdom and Europe with unsustainable debts. Faced with the failure of neoliberalism and its inability to deal with the global crisis of capitalism, Keynesianism could be the solution as long as it is applied globally, that is, it would operate in economic planning, not just at the national level to achieve economic stability and the full use of factors in each country, but also at the global level to eliminate the global economic chaos that prevails today with neoliberalism [5]. Keynesianism should therefore be adopted at the planetary level in order to ensure economic stability and full employment of factors globally. With global Keynesianism, there would be coordination of Keynesian economic policies at the planetary level that could only be achieved with the existence of a world government [5]. This would be the way to obtain the stability of the world economy to eliminate the chaos that characterizes the neoliberal globalization currently dominant around the world.
To manage a complex system such as capitalism, it is necessary to create feedback mechanisms and control by the world government to ensure the stability of the economic system [5]. With the global Keynesianism adopted in the planning of the world economy and the existence of a world government, it would be possible to eliminate the chaos that generates uncertainties that characterizes the world economy subject to constant instabilities. The elimination of chaos or attenuation of instability and uncertainty with its turbulences and risks in the world economy will only be achieved with the existence of a world government that would act to ensure coordination between the Keynesian economic policies adopted in each country and globally. To be effective, the world government should adopt the Keynesian economic planning process that helps to eliminate instability and uncertainty with its turmoil and risks. Humanity will only move towards an effective economic integration, initially, and, subsequently, political integration between countries as long as there is a world government and a globalized rule of law also works. The organization of society on a world level could be achieved with the constitution of a world government that would aim not only at ordering the economy and international relations at a world level, but, above all, at creating the conditions to face the challenges of humanity in the 21st century. Individual countries, even the most powerful ones, and current world institutions such as the UN, IMF, WTO, among others, do not meet the conditions to carry out these actions.
To make a world government viable, it is necessary that, in the beginning, a World Forum for Peace and Humanity’s Progress be constituted by civil society organizations and governments of all countries of the world. In this Forum, the objectives and strategies of a world movement for the constitution of a World Government, a World Parliament and a World Supreme Court would be debated and established, with a view to sensitizing the world population and national governments in order to make a world of peace and progress for all humanity a reality. This would be the path that would make it possible to turn the utopia of world government into reality. Without the constitution of a democratic world government, the scenario that unfolds for the future will be one of economic, political and social disorder and the war of all against all.
REFERENCES
1. ALCOFORADO. Fernando. Como fazer com que as utopias planetárias se realizem visando a construção de um mundo melhor. Available on the website <https://www.academia.edu/104881861/COMO_FAZER_COM_QUE_AS_UTOPIAS_PLANET%C3%81RIAS_SE_REALIZEM_VISANDO_A_CONSTRU%C3%87%C3%83O_DE_UM_MUNDO_MELHOR>.
2. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. O caos na dinâmica do sistema capitalista. Available on the website <https://www.slideshare.net/falcoforado/o-caos-na-dinmica-do-sistema-capitalista>.
3. PRIGOGINE, I. As leis do caos. São Paulo: Editora da UNESP, 2002.
4. LASZLO, Ervin. O Ponto do Caos. São Paulo: Editora Cultrix, 2006.
5. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Urge o Keynesianismo global e o governo mundial para ordenar a economia mundial. Available on the website <https://blogdefalcoforado.com/2022/04/13/urge-o-keynesianismo-global-e-o-governo-mundial-para-ordenar-a-economia-mundial/>.
6. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. O fracasso do neoliberalismo no mundo. Available on the website <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/o-fracasso-do-neoliberalismo-mundo-fernando-alcoforado/?originalSubdomain=pt>.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022) and How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023).
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