Fernando Alcoforado*
There are four scenarios for the war between the State of Israel and the Palestinian resistance of Hamas in Gaza:
Scenario 1- Israel crushes Palestinian Hamas resistance in Gaza
In this scenario, the Israeli government is successful in crushing Palestinian resistance to Hamas in Gaza at the cost of thousands of Palestinian deaths, deaths of Israeli soldiers and deaths of hostages held by Hamas, as well as the destruction of GazaStrip’s infrastructure of Gaza because of continuous bombings. Israel would achieve its objective of annihilating Hamas and occupying the Gaza Strip, but would soon face guerrilla action from remnants of Hamas with the support of the suffering Palestinian population. Furthermore, Israel would have to administer the destroyed Gaza Strip with a hostile population. In this scenario, Israel would also face internally the threat posed by dissatisfied Palestinians in the West Bank and the approximately 20% of Arabs residing in Israel. During the development of Scenario 1, Scenario 2 may occur.
Scenario 2- Israel and the Palestinian Hamas resistance in Gaza accept the ceasefire
In this scenario, the Palestinian resistance of Hamas proposes to Israel that there be a ceasefire and the provision of humanitarian aid to the population of Gaza with the handover of all or a significant part of the hostages held by Hamas. If Israel accepts Hamas’ proposal, it will be able to begin negotiations on a peace agreement, with the consent of the UN, through which the future of the region would be defined with the creation of the Palestinian State. If Israel does not accept Hamas’ proposal, this scenario could pave the way for the emergence of Scenario 3.
Scenario 3- Breakout of a regional war with the involvement of Arab countries against the massacre of the population of Gaza
This scenario could occur with the continuation of the Israeli massacre of the population of Gaza and the inability of the international system led by the UN to offer no solution to the conflict. Countries such as Iran, Syria, Qatar and Turkey, among others, may become involved in the conflict in an attempt to stop the Israeli massacre of the Gaza population. To prevent a regional war between Israel and some Arab countries, the international system led by the UN could act to conclude a peace agreement through which there would be an end to the Israeli massacre of the Palestinian population in Gaza, the provision of humanitarian aid to the population of the Gaza Strip and the future of the region is defined with the creation of the Palestinian State. If a regional war between Israel and some Arab countries is not avoided, this scenario could pave the way for the emergence of Scenario 4.
Scenario 4- Outbreak of the 3rd World War with the involvement of the great powers
This scenario could occur with the involvement of great powers (the United States and European Union countries alongside Israel and Russia and China alongside the Palestinians and Arabs) in the hypothesis that the international system led by the UN is not capable of preventing the outbreak of a regional war. The outbreak of the 3rd World War could be the last in the history of humanity if warmongering countries possessing nuclear weapons make use of them to achieve their objectives.
Conclusions
Based on the above, the future of Israel, the Palestinian people and humanity itself is at stake in this conflict between the State of Israel and the Palestinian resistance of Hamas in Gaza. It is time for peace-loving peoples to mobilize to demand an end to the Israeli massacre of the population of the Gaza Strip, the release of hostages held by Hamas and the celebration of a peace agreement in the region that results in the creation of the State of Palestine.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).
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