Fernando Alcoforado*
This article presents the content of our lecture held in the Discussion Round “How to insert Bahia State in the spatial economy”, which took place on September 11, 2023, in the context of the Pensar a Bahia Project promoted by SEI (Superintendence of Economic and Social Studies of Bahia State) to boost the development of Bahia State. To watch the video of our lecture held together with Professor Leka Hattori, access the website <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLzoG0G7stQ>. Our lecture presents the space sector as an alternative for the development of Bahia State in the contemporary era, consisting of three parts: 1) The necessary transformation of the Bahian economy; 2) The potential to increase Bahia’s GDP with the production of goods and services within the context of the space sector; and, 3) How to insert Bahia State in the space sector.
1) The necessary transformation of the Bahia State economy.
In 2022, Bahia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) totaled R$401 billion [14]. In 2020, Bahia’s GDP fell by 3.4% when compared to 2019. Bahia’s GDP, which was the sixth largest in the country, lost share in the national ranking, being surpassed by Santa Catarina and the Federal District, falling to 8th position. The main economic activities in Bahia are linked to agriculture, industry, mining, tourism and services, which account for 36% of the entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Northeast region of Brazil [15]. After the economic downturn worsened by the pandemic, Bahia has been recovering its losses from the recent period with growth recorded in the agricultural, mining, tourism and renewable energy sectors. The industrial sector is the one that requires the greatest attention from the government of Bahia State due to the drop in it that still persists.
Bahia’s agriculture is doing well because it is the largest grain producer in the Northeast, with almost 50% of all production in the region and accounted for 24.4% of Bahia’s total GDP in 2020 [16] [17]. This means that, practically, a quarter of all Bahia’s Gross Domestic Product comes from rural businesses [16]. Bahia’s mineral production is doing well because in January 2023 it reached a value of R$1.1 billion, 68% higher than the same period last year. Bahia is the Brazilian state with the greatest unexplored mineral potential and, therefore, an object of interest for large international mining companies [18]. Tourism in Bahia is doing well because tourist activities in Bahia grew 13.6% in May 2023, compared to the same month in 2022, while national growth was 8.6% [19]. In the first half of 2023, the flow of passengers at Bahia airports was the largest in the Northeast, with 4.9 million travelers. Salvador airport has established itself as the main entry gate for foreigners in the region, with 135.7 thousand passengers from abroad (embarking and disembarking), an increase of 83%, compared to the same period in 2022.
Bahia State remains the national leader in the generation of Renewable Energy in Brazil [20]. In 2019, energy generation from wind sources grew by more than 50% compared to 2018 and photovoltaic sources grew by more than 70%. Bahia’s leadership in renewable energy generation was maintained in 2021 and the increase in installed capacity demonstrates that this segment is an important driver of the Bahian economy. Currently, the State of Bahia has 205 wind farms in operation, with an installed capacity of 5.26 Gigawatts and 34 photovoltaic solar energy parks with more than 1 Gigawatt of capacity. Renewable Energies (wind and solar) are already prominent, mainly in the semi-arid region and in the Chapada Diamantina region, with the capacity to generate energy, as well as to generate employment and income in the interior of Bahia State.
The industry in Bahia State is doing poorly because, with strong declines in the chemical and paper and cellulose products segments, the production of the Bahian industry ended the month of June 2023 with a drop of 3.6% compared to the same month of the year past. With this result, Bahia’s industrial sector closed the first half of the year with a drop of 3.7%. It was the 5th worst result in the country, below the national figure (-0.3%) [21]. The industrial sector has been losing participation in the formation of GDP in almost all Brazilian states, with Bahia leading the decline and its industry decreased its participation from 27.1% of total GDP in 2010 to 21.5% in 2018 and 21 .8% in 2019. Bahia State suffered a deindustrialization process with the loss of competitiveness of the petrochemical industry and the departure of Ford, which left a trail of unemployment and devastation in the economy of Camaçari municipality [22]. To remedy the deindustrialization process in Bahia State , it is necessary for the government of Bahia to develop a reindustrialization program for Bahia, attracting new investors to reactivate the petrochemical and paper and cellulose industries, but also to develop new industrial activities such as the manufacturing of electric cars, which is currently underway, as well as promote the implementation of industries aimed at serving the aerospace sector with the development of the space economy in Bahia given its very positive prospects, as will be described in the subsequent paragraphs.
However, in addition to promoting the reindustrialization of Bahia with the actions indicated above to reactivate the Bahia State economy and increase its GDP, the State government should also adopt the following strategies: 1) propose to the federal government the execution of 1012 stopped federal works in the State; 2) propose to the federal government to make investments in the integration of the São Francisco River basin with the river basins of the semi-arid region of Bahia and the implementation of dams in this region to solve its water scarcity and promote the overcoming of its underdevelopment; 3) carry out new public works on economic infrastructure (energy, transport and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, housing and basic sanitation) using resources from the federal government’s PAC (Growth Acceleration Program); 4) attract investors to expand mineral production and the solar and wind renewable energy production park in Bahia State; 5) encourage the increase in Bahia’s tourism potential; 6) promote the substitution of imports from Bahia State by attracting investors; 7) develop a robust program for the implementation of small and medium-sized industries in the interior of the Bahia State; and, 8) promote the development of the space economy in Bahia State to collaborate in the reindustrialization process and increase the development of Bahia State.
The development of the space economy in Bahia State could contribute to attracting private investments in this area given the positive perspectives in the world for the space sector, whose investments could reach more than US$ 1 trillion by 2040. The space sector is recognized for being one of the more transversal and higher value-added existing sectors. Several countries have made investments in this area as a way of promoting their socioeconomic development. It is also important to mention the increase in private participation resulting in a sudden change in the dynamics of this sector, which previously only included government investments. The government begins to define the high-level requirements, while state and private industry become responsible for defining the method to achieve the proposed objective. The changes are so intense that private companies, which previously did not operate in the space sector because they were unable to foresee profit opportunities, began to make investments on their own with a view to creating new products and markets for the coming years [3].
The very definition of “Space Sector”, in itself, is complex. In addition to the manufacturing segments of satellites and components, launch vehicles such as space rockets and spacecraft, the ground segment and applications, there are also issues associated with innovation, technology transfer and education, which make this sector the most transversal and complex of the economic sectors. Space activities comprise a complex dynamic of aggregation and generation of value. They include technological innovation, require specific infrastructure and deliver products with high added value to society. This process moves other economic chains and generates value in several different markets in the space sector. Many initiatives in the space area play a role in inducing other economic activities. Therefore, each of these aspects requires specific development solutions. Understanding this concatenation is the basis for building effective public policies that allow investment in the space sector. It is important to highlight the strategic value of this field of economic activity [4].
Countries that invest in the space sector understand that this sector can be a driver of their socioeconomic development. They understand that, due to the transversality of the innovation process, the space sector can involve practically all sectors of the economy. That is why it makes sense to invest in the space sector, because indirectly it is also investing in all other economic sectors of the country [4]. The development in Brazil of a space industry and technology would contribute alongside more advanced countries to face the challenge of colonizing other worlds, but would also contribute to the economic and social development of the country. Brazil is quite behind in the development of the aerospace industry. In Brazil, the State of São Paulo concentrates most of the structure focused on the development of space industry and technology. The development of the space sector in Bahia State would contribute to increasing its GDP with the production of goods and services from space industry and technology if the government of Bahia State decides to act in the sector. Bahia’s insertion in the space economy would go far beyond the space sector itself, as it also encompasses the increasingly comprehensive and constantly changing impacts of products, services and knowledge derived from space on the economy and society.
Investment in the space sector has grown in recent years. In 2008, only 49 countries invested in the space sector. In 2018 this number increased to 72 countries. In 2020, 79 countries invested in this segment, with the five main investors being the United States, China, Russia, Japan and France. It is expected that by 2040, investments in the space economy will reach the value of US$1 trillion and the market, for launch vehicles alone, will reach something close to US$20 billion by 2030. The growth perspective for all segments of the space economy is very positive. In 2018, around US$70 billion was spent by government space agencies around the world. Of this total, the United States leads with investments of around US$40 billion. In second place is China with investments of US$5 billion, then Japan and France, both with investments of US$3 billion each. Brazil, in turn, invested around US$120 million in the space sector in 2019 [3].
The development of the space sector is an opportunity that is being placed on the agenda because recent facts indicate that humanity will have to colonize other worlds from this century onwards. Significant scientific and technological advances need to be developed to provide the conditions for humanity to colonize celestial bodies in the solar system and beyond. The inventions that may occur in the future in the space sector will be fundamental to enable the escape of human beings to other planets or moons of the solar system or exoplanets outside it, in the event that the existence of humanity as a species is threatened with its permanence on the planet Earth, with the collision on planet Earth of bodies coming from outer space (comets, asteroids, planets of the solar system and orphan planets), the cooling of the core of planet Earth with the compromise of the Earth’s magnetic field that protects us from threats coming from space, the Earth being hit by the emission of gamma rays with the explosion of supernova stars, the continuous distancing of the Moon from the Earth and the compromise of its environment, the death of the Sun, the collision of the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies and with the end of the Universe. The survival of humanity as a species depends on the scientific and technological development of the space sector [1].
Why is investing in the space sector important? Answers to such questions can be given through four major benefits: 1) Innovation benefits arising from the development of space technology [6]; 2) Direct environmental benefits arising from space applications [6]; 3) Economic benefits arising from the exploration of space services and applications [5][6]; and, 4) Benefits related to the creation of conditions to save humanity from extinction resulting from internal and external threats to planet Earth. By “innovation benefits” we mean the generation of inventions that have a direct impact on citizens, making their lives easier or reducing time spent on unnecessary tasks [6]. By “direct environmental benefits” we understand the generation of updated and accurate information about the environment, which includes the prediction of future weather and climate states [6]. By “economic benefits” we mean the generation of jobs and wealth through the creation of new production processes [5][6]. By “benefits to save humanity from extinction” includes the adoption of solutions based on science and technology aimed at the escape of human beings to other habitable locations that can be colonized outside of Earth.
Examples of innovation benefits from space exploration used by society include: 1) padded protectors for running shoes; 2) safety equipment for firefighters; 3) grooves in the asphalt to avoid accidents when taking off and landing planes and also used on roads and highways; 4) clean energy sources with the development of efficient solar panels; 5) more efficient ultraviolet radiation protective sunglasses developed from protective coverings from astronaut helmets; 6) baby food using synthetic components developed based on research carried out with certain algae in space exploration; 7) Delta wing used in NASA’s Gemini program; 8) Nitinol, a metallic alloy used in dental appliances whose development occurred from research into devices during the launch of satellites after the last stage of rockets; 9) intensive care units developed from manned space programs to record and monitor the physiological state of astronauts; 10) sports clothing that absorbs heat with materials from astronauts’ insulating clothing; 11) heat-absorbing gel packs; and, 12) Advanced hydroponics used in long-duration space missions [6].
The results of space exploration are likely to further benefit agricultural production and human nutrition by developing methods of growing in resource-reduced environments. From this came applications for arid regions and deserts, solutions for supplying water under the influence of space research in the use of waste, the removal of impurities and purification of water, blood pressure meter kits, hydraulic rescue pliers used for the first time in missions spacecraft and today used by fire teams to eliminate obstacles during rescues, Joystick used for the first time in NASA’s Apollo missions and today used in video games, surgical equipment, military aircraft controls, helicopters, drones and others, computerized tomography used in the detection of defects in components of space devices and used today as important medical diagnostic tools and strength and fitness equipment to maintain the physical fitness of astronauts in space environments (low gravity) which is the origin of many of the modern strength equipment in gyms [ 6].
The direct environmental benefits arising from space applications concern remote sensing by artificial satellites, which is used in important and priority areas linked to the survey of natural resources and monitoring of the environment with numerical weather and climate forecasts, in addition to generating studies and data to support public policies aimed at mitigating the impacts of global environmental changes, studying and monitoring the expansion of agriculture and cities, natural disasters and deforestation, which are the main applications derived from space technology for the benefit of the environment. Government, scientists and companies are increasingly using remote sensing, a technology in which Brazil is one of the pioneers in the world, through the work of INPE (National Institute for Space Research). The historical series of orbital data on deforestation in the Amazon guides several scientific studies and public policies, producing information for the entire society interested in sustainability. INPE also monitors fires and air quality, among other important indices in the area of climate and environment. The numerical models developed at INPE are essential in studies of extreme phenomena and climate change projections. All scientific knowledge about the Earth system translates into information for formulating public policies and supporting Brazilian diplomacy in international negotiations on global climate change [7][8].
2) The potential to increase Bahia’s GDP with the production of goods and services within the context of the space sector
Several authors have made efforts to measure the return on investments in the area. However, results are still scarce, and many suffer from methodological problems and theoretical definitions. Considering the most robust studies, an estimate for the aggregate rate of return for countries participating in the European Space Agency (ESA) is between 3.0 to 4.0 times (direct) and 6.0 to 12.0 times (indirect ) in relation to the investment made. These fees can be considered as an annual fee. It is expected that the direct and indirect returns from investments made in the space sector can generate many benefits for other economic sectors. These rates were applied to projects financed by AEB (Brazilian Space Agency) during the year 2020 referring to the direct impact, in the order of 3 to 4 times and to the indirect impact, in the order of 6 to 12 times on the same bases as those adopted by European Space Agency (ESA) [9].
In Brazil, in the case of direct impact, in a more conservative scenario (considering the effect of 3 times for each R$ invested) the total investments made in 2020, in the order of R$ 57,544,822.00, generated a return of R$ 172,634,466.00. In the case of indirect impact, the return for the conservative scenario (considering the multiplier of 6 times for each R$ invested) totaled R$345,268,932.00. These impacts measure the effects generated by investment in the space sector on economic sectors other than space. Therefore, being conservative, the total invested by AEB in 2020 generated a total effect of R$517,903,398.00. This means that Bahia’s GDP could have great potential for growth if there are investments in the development of the space sector [9].
3) How to insert Bahia in the space sector
We are living today in the era of “New Space”, the “New Space” of orbital exploration and beyond. In the 1990s, the space sector began to evolve at great speed. New rocket launch technologies emerged, increasingly lighter orbital equipment, with greater service capacity and longer useful life. In the mid-1990s, the first networks of low-orbit micro- or nanosatellites emerged that provide global telecommunications services. There are today several transnational consortia launching or preparing to launch their own constellations of satellites in non-geostationary orbit, i.e. when these are placed in a circular orbit around the Earth such that their rotation speed is not the same as that of the Earth.
Since the beginning of this century, the satellite market has become increasingly attractive to the private sector, with companies and conglomerates from several countries investing heavily in the production of satellites, launch rockets and a huge variety of systems essential for the operation of this equipment orbitals. Many countries that do not have space bases or financial resources to launch satellites are gaining from the development of software, power cells, shielding against radiation and low temperatures in the space vacuum, chips and circuits for telecommunications systems and much more.
Operating in the space sector market, “New Space”, is a great opportunity for Bahia State to reactivate its weakened economy in the contemporary era. Bahia State should implement a space cluster in the Bahia Technological Park similar to the Brazilian Aerospace Cluster, which is a Local Production Arrangement, based in the São José dos Campos Technological Park (PqTec) in the State of São Paulo that houses more than 100 companies from different regions of the country, promoting synergy between companies in the Brazilian aerospace sector, as well as their national and international competitiveness [10][11].
The São José dos Campos Technological Park (PqTec) is a 188 thousand-m² site dedicated to applied scientific and technological production. It has technology-based companies, the Faculty of Technology (Fatec) and the Light Structures Laboratory of the Technological Research Institute (IPT). The Park offers companies physical space and basic infrastructure to house their facilities and personnel. It also offers services for management training and networking opportunities with other companies, research institutions and financing agents. It has contracts and agreements for partnerships and subsidies with Finep, APEX, ABDI, Sebrae, SDECTI/SP, BNDES. Furthermore, it has cooperation agreements signed with aerospace clusters in Canada, Sweden, England, the Netherlands, as well as two technology parks and Chinese government institutions. The Bahia Technological Park should be inspired by the experience of the São José dos Campos Technological Park in the State of São Paulo [10].
In the development of the space sector in Bahia State, it is necessary to adopt the measures described below:
• The Bahia State government should set up a structure to coordinate actions aimed at developing the space sector in Bahia State with the participation of the Planning Secretariat, Science and Technology Secretariat, Mines and Energy Secretariat, Federation of Industries of Bahia, UFBA and UNEB .
• The coordination structure should plan all actions aimed at developing the space sector in Bahia State.
• The Bahia State government should coordinate with the Brazilian Space Agency with a view to implementing the space sector in Bahia State.
• The Bahia State government should coordinate with the Federation of Industries of Bahia (FIEB) and SENAI-Cimatec with a view to developing the space industry in Bahia State.
• The Bahia State government should conclude a cooperation agreement with the São José dos Campos Technological Park in the State of São Paulo with a view to implementing the space sector in Bahia State.
• The Bahia State government should use SENAI-Cimatec and the Bahia Technological Park as places to develop research projects aimed at developing Bahia’s space sector.
• The Bahia State government should conclude a cooperation agreement with the Aeronautics Technological Institute (ITA), the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Light Structures Laboratory (LEL), the Department of Aerospace Science and Technology (CTA), the Institute of Aeronautics and Space (IAE), the Institute of Advanced Studies (IEAv), the Institute of Industrial Development and Coordination (IFI) and the Institute of Research and Flight Testing (Ipev).
• The Bahia State government should coordinate with UFBA and UNEB to offer space engineering courses in Bahia State to train qualified human resources in the space area.
• The Bahia State government should raise funds from FINEP for the development of research projects and from BNDES for investments in Bahia’s space sector.
• The Bahia State government should ensure that Bahia’s mineral production sector seeks to produce strategic ores that are used in the manufacture of rockets, probes and space satellites.
It can be stated that the development of the space sector in Bahia State will contribute, not only to halting the deindustrialization process with the implementation of the space industry, but also to further develop the mineral production sector that would be strongly linked to the space sector. Bahia State is the main producer of minerals in the Northeast and has been advancing research aimed at developing future-bearing minerals, including lithium, graphite for graphene and niobium. All are important and strategic in the technological development of products such as batteries for electric vehicles, cell phones, fiber optics and the space industry. Bahia produces vanadium which is used in industry, mainly in metallurgy, where it is added to alloys to obtain special steels. When combined with chromium, nickel, manganese, boron, tungsten and other elements, it is used in the production of high strength carbon steels [12].
Recently, there was the discovery of a mega reserve of aluminum between Nazaré and Itacaré, that is, from the south of Recôncavo to the north of the cocoa region, passing through the entire lower south of Bahia State. Since the late 1920s, when the first commercial planes appeared, aluminum has been a metal that has always been present and, over the years, it has become one of the most important materials in the entire aerospace industry. Among the possible materials are titanium and the metal alloy made by aluminum-lithium, which in several studies has shown to be stronger and lighter than aluminum alone. Even with new adaptations and the use of new metal alloys, aluminum will continue to be the most used metal in the aerospace industry [13].
After several studies and investments, the metallurgical industry presented a new solution for the aerospace sector: copper-aluminum. This alloy, also called aluminum bronze, can contain up to 13% aluminum and, with the addition of other types of elements, it presents greater mechanical and corrosion resistance, characteristics that are fundamental and sought after by the sector. Titanium alloys are used in the aerospace industry due to the material’s lightness and strength. Light and resistant titanium alloys are used in the manufacture of parts for engines, rockets and aircraft. Bahia State is a producer of copper, titanium and could also be an aluminum producer with the use of the recently discovered mega aluminum reserves. In addition to thermal conductivity, resistance to different temperatures and cost-benefit are also characteristics that increase the use of copper. Its versatility allows it to be used in critical points of the aircraft, such as the landing gear and other joints of the mechanical system [13].
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* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).
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