Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present the threats to the extinction of humanity caused by human beings themselves, which relate to global climate change, pandemics and the outbreak of the 3rd World War, as well as presenting how to avoid them.
The threats to the extinction of humanity caused by global climate change and how to avoid them [1]
Overcoming the threats to the extinction of humanity caused by global climate change means avoiding global warming, which is a climate phenomenon that, to a large extent, represents an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface that has been occurring over the last 150 years. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), established by the UN (United Nations), states that the warming observed on the planet is most likely due to an increase in the greenhouse effect and there is strong evidence that global warming is largely due to human action. Many meteorologists and climatologists consider it proven that human action is actually influencing the occurrence of the phenomenon. There is no doubt that human activity on Earth causes changes in the environment in which we live.
Global warming is already having an impact and will have a huge impact on the health of the world’s population. In 2022, people around the world were exposed, on average, to 86 days of potentially lethal temperatures, according to a countdown by the medical journal The Lancet. The number of people over 65 who die from heat-related causes increased by 85% between 1991-2000 and 2013-2022, according to The Lancet. More than 5,000 people died due to heat during the summer of 2023, according to the French Public Health Agency (l’agence Santé publique France (SPF)). Elderly people over 75 were the most affected, with 3,700 deaths in 2023. An article published in 2021 in the Lancet Planet Health magazine calculated that 5 million people die annually due to sudden or significant thermal variations. The number is equivalent to 9.5% of all global deaths. Just over three quarters of fatal victims live in Asia or Africa. In the predicted scenario of a global temperature increase of 2°C by the end of the century (according to experts, it is currently on course to reach 2.7°C by 2100), annual deaths are expected heat-related diseases will increase by 370% by 2050, that is, a 4.7-fold increase, according to the 2023 edition of the medical journal The Lancet.
Global warming will cause an increase in heart attacks and respiratory diseases, according to a study carried out by several researchers who emphasize that they are only now recognizing the repercussions of global warming on human health. This study considers that the increase in the frequency of heat waves will result in a doubling or even a tripling of cases of heart attacks and respiratory diseases by 2050. There will also be an increase in the number of people affected by asthma, infections transmitted by mosquitoes, cases of food poisoning and viral infections, such as bird flu and atypical pneumonia (SARS). Climate change directly affects human health through extreme weather events, the spread of vector-borne and other infectious diseases, and worsening air pollution. Indirectly, climate change affects human health by causing malnutrition, worsening working conditions and generating mental stress.
Extreme heat is one of the leading causes of climate-related death that is already occurring in many parts of the world. The combination of climate change and urbanization continues to intensify heat extremes around the world. Heat stress affects productivity and can increase the risk of cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases. Even heating by raising the temperature by 1°C potentially reduces productivity by between 1% and 3% for those working outdoors. Poor populations without access to air conditioning will be most affected, as they will find it more difficult to escape the extreme heat. Heat stress combined with physical exertion and lack of hydration can cause chronic kidney disease (CKD), which decreases kidney function over time. CKD disproportionately affects poor populations and manual workers who work in hot thermal conditions.
There may be a reduction in food availability because of climate change. Food availability problems will become more pronounced as global temperatures rise. For every degree of temperature increase, world wheat production falls by 6% and world rice production falls by 10%. Changes in rainfall, an increase in the planet’s average temperature and changes in soil composition are determining factors for the growth and quality of crops. Climate change could reduce the nutritional value of crops, causing malnutrition to be considered by some researchers to be the biggest potential impact of climate change on health this century. New research suggests that in a warmer world insect metabolism increases, causing them to eat more and increase crop losses.
There may be water shortages. Climate change is putting further pressure on water security by altering the hydrological cycle, just as warming glacier sheets are impacting freshwater supplies. The Middle East, India, Antarctica and Greenland are experiencing significant freshwater loss. 80% of the world’s population is already facing threats to their water security, including water availability, water demand and water pollution. Populations living in low-lying areas are at greater risk of flooding and contamination of their freshwater sources due to rising sea levels and soil salinization. Higher water temperatures, increased rainfall and drought can increase water pollution and harm human health.
Vector-borne diseases may occur. Climate change causes changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity, and as a result, increases the risk of disease transmission. Climate change is expected to change disease patterns with some regions experiencing increases while others may see decreases. Malaria, dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis and tick-borne encephalitis are infectious diseases transmitted by insects that will be caused by climate change. Air pollution is today one of the main health risk factors, leading to significant increases in mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. Air pollution around the world often caused by the use of the same fossil fuels that cause climate change can worsen the effects of air pollution. Air pollution is a major problem especially in urban areas.
Science shows that the impacts of climate change on human health in a global warming scenario with a temperature increase of 1.5°C are lower than those expected in a scenario of a 2°C increase, which, in turn, are significantly smaller compared to the situation created in a 3°C increase scenario. Therefore, limiting global warming to 1.5°C brings substantial benefits to people’s health. Nevertheless, even in this scenario, climate change will still create health problems for many. Global warming and climate change tend to produce a true crisis of humanity by threatening its survival, making it essential to build a new model of society or a new world order based on the model of sustainable development that makes each country act at a level planetary system in an interdependent and rational way with common objectives without which the survival of human beings and life on the planet could be put at risk.
To change this situation that threatens humanity with extinction, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of current society. The unsustainability of the current capitalist development model is evident as it has been extremely destructive of the planet’s living conditions. In view of this, it is essential that a sustainable society be built by replacing the current economic model dominant throughout the world with another that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development.
To build a sustainable society, the objectives described below should be pursued:
• Reduce global carbon emissions, promoting changes in the current global energy matrix based on fossil fuels (coal and oil) to one based on renewable energy resources, hydroelectricity, biomass, solar and wind energy and green hydrogen to prevent or minimize global warming and, consequently, the occurrence of catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate, as well as in the global transport matrix aiming at its rationalization and the use of electricity and renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels.
• Reduce nitrous oxide emissions to meet the UN target of limiting the increase in Earth’s temperature to 2°C.
• Improve energy efficiency by developing actions to achieve energy savings in the city and countryside, in buildings, agriculture, industries and transport in general, thus contributing to the reduction of global carbon emissions and, consequently, avoiding the effect greenhouse.
• Make motor vehicles and equipment for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses more efficient, buildings are designed for maximum day lighting, natural cooling and heating savings, agriculture and industry are designed to require the minimum of energy resources and raw materials, also including the self-production of energy with the use of waste from its production processes based on reverse logistics and, finally, new transport alternatives are used, from bicycles to high-capacity railway-based transport, among other initiatives.
• Combat soil, air and water pollution, reducing waste by recycling used and discarded materials.
• Restore and stabilize the biological base by ensuring that land use follows the basic principles of biological stability (nutrient retention, carbon balance, soil protection, water conservation and preservation of species diversity) and ensuring that areas rural areas have greater diversity than currently with balanced land management where there is crop rotation and species cultivation, there are no wasted crops, tropical forests are conserved, there is no deforestation to obtain wood and other products, new trees are planted, there is efforts to contain desertification by transforming degraded areas into productive land, the extensive use of pastures is eliminated, as well as the food chain of affluent societies includes less meat and more grains and vegetables.
• Adjust population growth to the resources available on the planet, reducing birth rates, especially in countries and regions with high population growth rates to limit the world population to 10 billion inhabitants.
• Reduce social inequalities, including the adoption of measures that contribute to meeting the basic needs of the world population, such as food, clothing, housing, health services, employment and better quality of life.
• Ensure that economic growth and resulting wealth are shared by the entire population, education services allow the population to increase qualification levels for work and culture, health services are effective in combating child mortality and contribute to the increase in the population’s life expectancy, all men and women have decent housing and there are public and private investments at the necessary level that contribute to the reduction of mass unemployment as a result of the general crisis of the world capitalist system which tends to worsen in the future.
The threats to the extinction of humanity caused by pandemics and how to avoid them [2]
The Black Death (also known as Bubonic Plague) was the most devastating pandemic recorded in human history, resulting in the deaths of 75 to 200 million people in Eurasia, reaching its peak in Europe between the years 1347 and 1351 and causing a reduction in 1/3 of the population of the European continent. The Spanish Flu was a pandemic caused by the influenza virus that emerged in 1918 and spread rapidly around the world, causing around 50 million deaths and at least 600 million people becoming ill from the disease between 1918 and 1919. The pandemic Coronavirus or Covid-19 caused the deaths of almost 15 million people around the world, according to an estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO). To overcome the threats of death and extinction of humanity caused by pandemics, preventing their occurrence on planet Earth, such as the Bubonic Plague, the Spanish Flu and the Coronavirus, it is necessary to immediately stop degrading and deforesting forests, strengthen health surveillance systems for all countries and the World Health Organization (WHO), reduce social inequities between and within nations, remove subsidies that favor deforestation and offer more support to indigenous peoples, to contain deforestation and produce a multiplicity of vaccines capable of combating new viruses and new bacteria.
It is necessary to internationally ban the trade of species at high risk of virus transmission and eradicate the consumption of wild meat in the world, create a library of virus genetics, which helps in mapping places where new high-risk pathogens may emerge, carry out investments of US$22 billion to US$31 billion per year for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation, and in health surveillance and biosafety in the farming of food animals, which are potential virus intermediaries that affect humans, especially in areas close to forests to help prevent future pandemics, as well as keep the world’s population well informed about the risks of new pandemics with reliable data, conceived by experience and science. If the destruction of nature does not end, it is likely that even more deadly and destructive diseases will hit humanity in the future, more quickly and frequently. The warning comes from the world’s leading biodiversity experts who say rampant deforestation, uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive farming, mining and infrastructure development, as well as the exploitation of wild species have created what they call a “perfect storm” for spread of diseases.
Throughout history, vaccines have helped to significantly reduce the incidence of various viral and bacterial diseases. Today, vaccines are considered the most cost-effective treatment in public health. In addition to adopting measures to protect forests and combat the exploitation of wild species to avoid new pandemics, it is urgent to develop and produce vaccines capable of immunizing the population against new viruses and new bacteria. Humanity will have to make profound changes in its relationship with nature to prevent new pandemics that threaten its very existence and invest massively in R&D aimed at developing vaccines to combat current and new viruses and new bacteria.
The threats to the extinction of humanity caused by the outbreak of the 3rd World War and how to avoid them [3]
It is necessary to avoid the proliferation of wars in the world and the outbreak of the 3rd World War which could result in the use of nuclear weapons by the contenders and could lead to the extinction of the human species. Based on various sources, it appears that in the First World War (1914-1918) there were 9 million deaths and, in the Second World War (1939-1945), between 40 and 52 million deaths. From the end of the Second World War until 1992, there were 149 wars, in which more than 23 million people died. In the 20th century, until 1995, without considering the First and Second World Wars, there were a total of 241 wars, of which 166 broke out after 1950. No less than 70 countries were involved in wars from 1994 to 1997. Since creation of the United Nations in 1945, more than a thousand major conflicts occurred around the world, which left around 20 million dead. Since the end of the Second World War, the world has known 160 wars, in which around 7 million soldiers and 30 million civilians died. Former US Secretary of State, Zbigniew Brzezinski, made an estimate covering all “mega deaths” that have occurred since 1914 and reached a total of 187 million deaths.
More people were killed by wars in the 20th century than in all previous human history combined. The violence of conflicts in our time has no parallel in history. The wars of the 20th century were “total wars” against combatants and civilians without discrimination. After the Second World War ended, the Cold War began between the United States and the Soviet Union, giving way to an endless series of localized wars such as those in Korea and Vietnam, so numerous that they ended up becoming part of our daily lives. From 1945 until the fall of the Soviet Union, the 40 years of the Cold War, around 17 million people died on the planet in armed conflicts and from 1990 to 2003 wars took more than 3 million lives. It is estimated that throughout the world, in the last ten years, more than 2 million children have died in conflicts and another 4 million have suffered mutilations such as those that have occurred in the Israeli massacre against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The suffering, the horrors and the rivers of blood that flow from all these conflicts are due to so-called conventional wars. However, there is always the danger of the outbreak of “unconventional” ones, with the use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. The war between Russia and NATO in Ukraine, the conflict between the State of Israel and the Palestinian people and the Cold War between the United States and China could trigger the Third World War, which, if it actually occurs, there will be no winners nor defeated among the peoples, who will exterminate each other.
To avoid the proliferation of wars in the world and the outbreak of the 3rd World War which results in the use of nuclear weapons by the contenders, a democratic world government must be established that is elected by the world parliament to be constituted with the participation of countries from all over the world. The world democratic government would avoid the empire of a single country, as has existed throughout the history of humanity, and the anarchy of all countries, as is currently the case. A world government will only be sustainable if it is truly democratic. The new world order must be built not only to organize relationships between men on the face of the Earth, but also their relationships with nature. It is therefore necessary that a planetary social contract be drawn up that enables the achievement of world peace, economic and social progress and the rational use of nature’s resources for the benefit of all humanity.
REFERENCES
1. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Global warming, global climate change and its impacts on human health. Available on the website <https://pt.slideshare.net/falcoforado/global-warming-global-climate-change-and-its-impacts-on-human-health>.
2. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity. Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău: Generis Publishing, 2023.
3. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. How to make the utopia of world peace a reality to avoid the outbreak of the 3rd world war. Available on the website <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-make-utopia-world-peace-reality-avoid-outbreak-war-alcoforado/>.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).
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