Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present the strategies necessary for Brazil to deal with the negative consequences resulting from the Donald Trump administration of the United States. As everyone knows, Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential elections will produce enormous economic impacts in the United States, on American democracy, on the energy and environmental sectors of the United States and the world, and also on global geopolitics. There will also be impacts on the global sphere with the Trump administration seeking to strengthen its far-right allies in the world, compromising international trade with its restrictive import policy contributing to the global economic recession, worsening global climate change with its energy policy of prioritizing the use of fossil fuels, and increasing the trade war with China and international conflicts in its attempt to prevent China’s rise as the world’s hegemonic power in the middle of the 21st century. The Brazilian government will have to deal with the possibility of interference by the Trump administration in Brazil’s internal affairs, including the strengthening of the country’s far-right, especially in the 2026 general elections, and interference in the economic sphere with restrictions on Brazilian exports to compromise Brazil’s economic performance to the detriment of the Lula government. Given these facts, this article presents what the Brazilian government should do to deal with the threats posed by the future Trump administration.
It is important to note that in the sphere of democracy, Trump poses a threat not only to American democracy and the rule of law in the United States, but also to the entire world with the prospect that he will use the power of the United States to intervene in the affairs of certain countries in order to further the interests of the United States and expand the far right in the world. There is no doubt about Trump’s authoritarian instincts. Trump will be a danger, not only to the rule of law in the United States, but also with the possibility of using the full power of the US government to advance the far-right in the world and particularly in Brazil. In the economic sphere, Trump has proposed a much larger increase in import tariffs. These measures will generate stagflation in the United States (inflation with stagnation) and a recession in the global economy. Trump has proposed carrying out a mass deportation of 12 million illegal immigrants from this country, which will cause a labor shortage and a consequent increase in the cost of labor in the United States. The labor shortage in industries that depend on immigrant labor, such as agriculture, construction, and slaughterhouses, among other sectors, would also be inflationary. All of this would contribute to the occurrence of a recession in the United States and a global recession with the fall in international trade that will negatively affect Brazilian exports.
In the sphere of energy and the environment, oil and natural gas companies will be the main beneficiaries of the Trump administration’s energy policy, clean energy technologies will no longer be a priority, and neither Trump nor his party will be inclined to sign any significant international initiatives to combat global climate change such as the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump has repeatedly promised to end a set of Biden administration policies that encourage the use of renewable energy in the United States. This signals a sharp shift in President Joe Biden’s policies that restrict fossil fuel extraction on public lands and waters. The Biden administration has also imposed regulations that prevent drilling in more than half of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Trump is expected to instruct his Department of the Interior to review all of these policies immediately. The consequence of all this will be the worsening of global climate change. In the realm of geopolitics, the old world order in the new world will be open season for bullies like Trump. Trump’s future foreign policy presents alarming risks with its “America First” rhetoric. The Trump administration will be able to economically and militarily intimidate any country that poses an obstacle to its strategic interests without fear of consequences due to the ineffectiveness of the UN. It is important to note that, in addition to its economic power, the United States has 865 military bases in about 130 countries, with at least 76 military bases in Latin America and the Caribbean that are fed by the US arms industry, which is responsible for producing 60% of the world’s weapons. Combating climate change and gun control will become increasingly difficult under the Trump administration.
What strategies should Brazil adopt in this context?
In the sphere of democracy, given the rise of the far right in the world with the victory of Donald Trump and his very likely interference aimed at strengthening the far right in Brazil, the correct strategy for Brazil would be to make the country’s progressive forces unite and persevere in building a solid alliance with political forces from the democratic center with the aim of building a democratic and anti-fascist front in parliament. The country’s progressive forces also need to mobilize organized civil society to neutralize the retrograde political forces that defend neofascism and neoliberalism, elect a progressive president in 2026, the majority of state governors and a parliamentary majority in the National Congress of candidates who are committed to political, economic and social advances in Brazil. These are the conditions for preventing the far right from regaining power in Brazil. These are the conditions for the Brazilian State to abandon neoliberalism and promote the development of Brazil for the benefit of the vast majority of the Brazilian population and not just the holders of national and international capital, as is currently the case.
In the economic sphere, the correct strategy of the Brazilian government should be to deepen economic relations with China, Brazil’s main trading partner in the international market, and prioritize the development of the domestic market by adopting measures aimed at reactivating the Brazilian economy, given the unfavorable scenario represented by the global recession and the drop in Brazilian exports. The signing of 37 trade agreements on November 20, 2024 between Brazil and China is highly important because it will make it possible to reactivate the Brazilian economy by leveraging the development of Brazil’s domestic market. This trade agreement will contribute to Chinese participation in investments by the Lula government in projects under the New PAC (Growth Acceleration Program), in the construction and renovation of regional integration routes in South America, in contributions to energy transition projects and in the modernization of the Brazilian industrial park, underpinning cooperation between Brazil and China for the next 50 years in areas such as sustainable infrastructure, energy transition, artificial intelligence, digital economy, health and aerospace, establishing synergies between Brazilian development strategies, such as the NIB (New Industry Brazil), the PAC (Growth Acceleration Program), the South American Integration Routes Program, and the Ecological Transformation Plan, and the Belt and Road Initiative. In addition to these initiatives, it is necessary to strengthen the role of the Brazilian State to enable it to reactivate the Brazilian economy by abandoning the neoliberal economic model implemented in 1990 and the privatization policies, the spending cap and the independence of the Central Bank. The neoliberal model will have to be replaced immediately by the national developmentalist model adjusted to the new times with active participation of the State in economic planning as occurred in the period 1930/1980 when Brazil achieved its greatest economic and social development throughout history.
In the sphere of the environment and combating climate change, the Brazilian government should adopt strategies that contribute to the sustainability of the industrial and agricultural sectors, the Amazon, cities and the energy and transport sectors. Establish environmental sustainability goals for industries related to the rational use of renewable natural resources, non-pollution or minimal pollution of the environment, proper disposal of waste using reverse logistics, use of renewable energy whenever possible, reuse of water to the maximum extent possible in industrial processes, and implementation of a culture of sustainable development. Establish environmental sustainability goals for the agricultural sector related to the abandonment of the model based on the green revolution and the adoption of a new model to be developed on ecological bases that has a systemic and integrated vision of agricultural production in its environment, but also with the effective reduction of the excessive concentration of land ownership in the hands of a few, through an agrarian reform that is as democratic as possible. Establish environmental sustainability goals for the Amazon so that the natural resources existing there are used rationally for the benefit of the population residing there and for the economic and social progress of Brazil. Establish environmental sustainability goals for Brazilian cities to ensure the right of the population to urban land, housing, environmental sanitation, urban infrastructure, transportation and public services, work and leisure, for current and future generations and the right of the population to decide on the destiny of their cities, as well as preparing cities to face extreme weather events. Set environmental sustainability goals for the energy sector that replace fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) with clean and renewable energy sources to avoid catastrophic global climate change, as well as adopt energy efficiency or energy saving measures to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Establish environmental sustainability for the transport sector by adopting as a priority the realization of investments in the expansion of railways and waterways because trains and ships are the means of transport that emit the least greenhouse gases, as well as abandoning the expansion of the road transport system.
In the sphere of world geopolitics, the Brazilian government should not align itself with any of the great powers in conflict (the United States and China) but rather maintain good relations with all of them to prevent Brazil from being the scene of military confrontations that would be harmful to our country and the Brazilian population. Above all, it should advocate the end of the ineffective UN Security Council and the formation of a new global governance system to be formed, consisting of the UN, which would constitute a global government, the UN General Assembly as a global parliament, and the ICC (International Criminal Court in The Hague) as the world’s supreme court. Global power should be concentrated in the UN General Assembly as a global parliament, whose decisions should be respected by all countries in the world. The global government with the restructured UN would have its members democratically elected by the global parliament, which would have all countries represented in it and elected by the citizens of each country. The members of the supreme court would have a fixed-term mandate and would be nominated by the global government and approved by the global parliament. Only in this way would it be possible to end the chaos in the global economy, ensure that civilization prevails over the barbarism currently dominant in the world and ensure that international laws are respected, that the fight against global climate change is effective, that democracy can assert itself in all countries of the world and that a world of peace, progress and happiness can be built for the benefit of all humanity. The Brazilian government should only align itself with China, from a geopolitical point of view, in the event of an increase in hostilities by the Trump administration with its negative interference in Brazil’s internal affairs, whether in the political or economic sphere.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science, IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia and of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economics and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Doctoral thesis. Barcelona University, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023), A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023), Como construir um mundo de paz, progresso e felicidade para toda a humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2024) and How to build a world of peace, progress and happiness for all humanity (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2024).
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