Author: falcoforado

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to present the characteristics of the cold war between the United States and China, which has multiple dimensions (trade war, financial war, technological war, cyber war and war in space). In this article, each of the dimensions of the cold war between the United States and China and its consequences were analyzed. It is worth noting that the cold war is being unleashed by the United States against China in an attempt to avoid its economic decline and prevent China’s rise as a hegemonic power on the planet, which is expected to happen by the middle of the 21st century. The resurgence of commercial, financial, technological, cyber and space wars between the United States and China raises the possibility of the unleashing, on a military level, of the 3rd World War involving these two great economic and military powers and their respective allies whose analysis was processed at the end of this article.

1. The trade war between the United States and China and its consequences

The trade war is how the economic dispute between the United States and China became known. The conflict began in 2017, when then-US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese products. The objective was to encourage the purchase of national products, thus increasing job creation in the United States. With the argument that he sought to protect North American producers and reverse the trade deficit that the United States has with China, President Donald Trump announced since 2018 the adoption of tariffs on products imported from the Asian country. The objective was to make it difficult for Chinese products to reach the United States, which would stimulate domestic production. President Trump’s central idea was to make Chinese products more expensive, making the population choose to buy national products [1].

The Chinese government, in turn, reacted to these announcements with retaliation, even imposing tariffs on North American products. In response, China decided to increase tariffs and even bar the import of some American products. Furthermore, China’s new strategy consisted of devaluing its currency (Yuan) to make Chinese products cheaper and stimulate China’s exports. The United States government accused China of currency manipulation. The trade war also turned into a currency war. The Biden administration continued the trade war launched by the Trump administration and took another decisive step in the attempt to contain Chinese power with the technological war against China [1].

The Biden administration has adopted, among other measures, a broad set of export controls that prohibit Chinese companies from buying advanced chips from the United States. These sanctions are unprecedented in modern times. The chips that the Biden government is trying to control are semiconductors, the processors that power cell phones, autonomous cars, advanced computing, drones and military equipment and have become essential to this decade’s technological dispute. Therefore, the Biden administration not only continued the trade war with the Chinese, started by Trump, but also elevated it to a technological war [2].

2. The financial war between the United States and China and its consequences

Financial warfare is adopted to destabilize an enemy country’s financial institutions and degrade its economic capacity. Destroying an enemy country’s wealth through an attack on its market can be more effective than sinking enemy ships when it comes to weakening an adversary. If the attacker can bring a country to a state of near collapse and paralysis, to a financial catastrophe while advancing on other fronts, then the financial war will be judged successful, even if the attacker incurs great costs. Financial warfare has offensive and defensive aspects. Offensive aspects include malicious attacks on an enemy country’s financial markets designed to disrupt trade and destroy its wealth. Defensive aspects involve rapid detection of an enemy attack followed by rapid response such as closing markets or intercepting enemy message traffic. The offensive action may consist of interrupting the first attempt or retaliating in the second attempt. In theory, attack and defense converge, as second-attempt retaliation can be sufficiently destructive to thwart first-attempt attacks [7].

China is ahead of the United States with its strategic financial warfare doctrine. In implementing financial warfare, China has adopted more subtle forms of financial attack as, for example, in January 2011; The New York Times reported that China became a net seller of US Treasury bonds in 2010, after being a net buyer. The Times report found this sale strange because China was still accumulating huge dollar reserves from its trade surpluses and was still buying dollars to manipulate the value of its currency, the Yuan [7]. Currently, China is the second largest creditor of the United States’ public debt, behind Japan, with a stock of US$835.4 billion.

In the context of the financial war between the United States and Asian countries, including China, an alternative non-dollar-based payment system has been created and is taking shape in Asia and gold has proven to be an effective financial weapon. This situation is contributing to the construction of new banking and payment systems based on gold to replace the dollar. China is consolidating its position as a power in the gold market. The Central Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, increasing its stock by around 23 tons. With this addition, China’s total accumulation reached a historic milestone of 2,137 tons. Since 2009, China has persistently engaged in the acquisition of physical gold. In 2023, under China’s command, global central banks stepped up gold purchases in an attempt to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar [8].

In addition to adopting gold, China created its digital currency. It is a cryptocurrency backed by its central bank, something that analysts say has increased the country’s leadership in the global race to develop digital money by central banks. The digital Yuan is probably the most advanced of the world’s central bank digital currency creation initiatives to date. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) provide a public way to pay and store money digitally. Digital Yuan can work to pay for products. China has a goal of internationalizing its currency as an alternative to the dollar and the digital Yuan could help with this. The Digital Yuan is like the current electronic payment methods in China. Users download digital wallet apps where they can store funds and which generate a QR code that can be read by payment terminals. The digital Yuan is designed to replace physical cash in circulation, not cash deposited long-term in bank accounts. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, the digital Yuan will not depend on blockchain, a distributed database technology that allows transactions to be validated without the need for banks. Widespread use of the digital Yuan will give China’s monetary policymakers greater visibility into how capital flows are going in the country’s economy [9].

These financial efforts are being carried out by China alongside malicious efforts in cyberspace and attacks on systems controlling critical infrastructure launched by China’s military espionage unit. The financial war launched by the United States against its enemies is causing them to develop actions that contribute to causing damage to the international economic and financial system, which is extremely fragile. Cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, including banks and other financial institutions, are on the rise and can take many forms. The success of the hackers and the market reaction demonstrated that markets can be manipulated through a variety of means. These events point to the most dangerous type of financial attack that combines cyberattacks and financial warfare. Capital markets today are anything but foolproof. In fact, they are increasingly prone to failure.

3. The technological war between the United States and China and its consequences

China’s economic rise and rapid success must be credited to the Chinese government’s miraculous work in lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into the middle class. China’s rapid growth has been driven primarily by progress and investment in technology. China shows exceptional local technological innovation. It is no coincidence that Chinese companies are already leading the technological path of 5G mobile networks and also of the future 6G mobile networks that are expected to occur in 2030 and their capacity is high to trigger a cyber war with the United States. China is following its own path by demonstrating that centralized and planned political systems are capable of boosting development more and faster than systems based on the free market.

China can lead the digital future even if the United States tries to stop it by doing its part. With regard to technological war, for example, two fields of conflict are mentioned: 5G technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The United States market has been closed since 2012 to Huawei, holder of the most advanced 5G technology, after the US Congressional Intelligence Committee concluded that Huawei represents a threat to national security. Huawei, a Chinese company, has its 5G mobile Internet network devices at lower prices than those of Korean or American competitors. Since 2017, Huawei has been a leading global manufacturer of mobile network equipment, providing antennas, relays and other infrastructure for mobile operators to connect their customers anywhere [1].

China has launched an AI incentive program. The Chinese government’s plan states its objectives to explore this strategic opportunity and be a pioneer in building a competitive advantage in the development of AI, that is, to stop being a replicator and take the lead in this cutting-edge technology. The imminent era of intelligent machines could be a turning point in China’s favor in the battle for global hegemony with the United States. The most recent United States National Security Strategy insists on the need to achieve leadership in research, technology, invention and innovation as pillars of American prosperity. To maintain competitive advantage, the United States will prioritize emerging technologies critical to economic growth and security, such as data science, cryptography, autonomous technologies, and artificial intelligence. There is no doubt that the country that exercises leadership in Artificial Intelligence (AI) can lead it to conquer global power. Whoever gains a decisive advantage will be able to use advances in AI to undermine the economic or military power of their opponents [3].

4. The cyber war between the United States and China and its consequences

Science and technology are used in cyber warfare as one of the weapons of modern warfare. Cyber warfare is based on information technology and, nowadays, also on the advances provided by artificial intelligence. Cybernetics is an interdisciplinary science based on scientific research. Cyber warfare basically consists of the use of digital attacks for the purposes of espionage or sabotage against a country’s strategic or tactical structures. Espionage aims to steal tactical and strategic information such as data on troop movements, the strengths and weaknesses of the country’s military system and any other valuable information about resources needed for war. In sabotage, it can range from a simple action such as taking down the servers of a government website to something extremely harmful such as launching a nuclear warhead. Sabotage boils down to “doing something” unlike espionage, which boils down to “discovering something” [1].

In cyber warfare, hackers with state support, whether members of a country’s military forces or financed by that country, attack computers and networks of opposing countries that affect resources necessary for war. They do this in the same way as in any other computer or system, that is, they study the system deeply, discover its flaws and use these flaws to control that system or destroy it. Hackers can use confidential information intended for others (espionage) to gain the upper hand in the battle against their adversary. Hackers can find out the speed of a missile and build another missile or a plane that can outrun it. Can find out where the enemy is moving his troops and plan an ambush. Hackers can find out which scientists are important in creating these weapons, or which politician was essential in raising funds for this weapons system and attack them directly with the use, for example, of drones. When the country has control of these systems, it is also possible to sabotage people and structures. By discovering how troops are communicating, the country gains access to the network so it can confuse the enemy and invade their base. It could break into their systems/accounts and defraud them by posing as one of them. Or it could use this information to control them and blackmail people because of something found on the computer or kidnap their families using private information. Destroying the systems of enemy countries has an obvious result: it destroys what controls that system, and, consequently, prevents it from functioning [1].

In the 2023 United States-China cyber war, China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) accused the United States of hacking into Huawei servers, stealing critical data, and deploying backdoors since 2009 in an effort to remotely access a command center and external control of the invaded ecosystem, creating a permanent path for future contamination. Thus, an attacker could have access to several files and even complete control of its environment. The MSS also alleged that the United States forced technology companies to install backdoors in their software and equipment to conduct cyber espionage and steal data. The MSS responded by calling the United States “the largest global hacker and cyber thief empire.” The MSS stated that US intelligence agencies have done everything possible to conduct surveillance, covert theft and raids in many countries, including China. The MSS specifically singled out the United States National Security Agency (NSA) for carrying out systematic, platform-based attacks against China to loot its important data resources. The MSS stated that the United States has used weapons and equipment on a large scale to carry out cyber attacks and cyber espionage operations against China, Russia and 45 other countries and regions around the world [4].

Report from the United States Department of Defense informs that China’s malicious cyber activities predispose the Asian country’s preparations for a potential military conflict with the United States. Titled “2023 Cyber Strategy,” the report notes that China has engaged in protracted campaigns of cyber espionage, theft, and compromise against critical U.S. infrastructure, including the Defense Industrial Base (DIB). In the event of a war, the Defense Department believes China will likely launch destructive cyberattacks against the country to hamper military mobilization, sow chaos, and divert attention and resources. As a result of these threats, the Department of Defense has said that cyberspace operations are indispensable to the military strength and integrated deterrence of the United States and its allies. The Department of Defense has defined four strategies it will pursue to address current and future cyber threats: 1) Defend the nation; 2) Prepare to fight and win the nation’s wars; 3) Secure the cyber domain with allies and partners; and, 4) Build lasting advantages in cyberspace [5].

5. The war in space between the United States and China and its consequences

The war in space between the United States and China takes its first steps. China and the United States advance in the militarization of space with secret missions. With the launch of the X-37B vehicle, the United States advances in the escalation of the militarization of space. This is the seventh mission conducted by the fleet of unmanned mini space shuttles developed by Boeing and now belonging to the American Space Force. The launch comes after China took its own mini space shuttle into space on its third mission. In both cases, the military keeps the activities that will be carried out in space extremely secret. With each new X-37B mission, its time in space has increased. If the first flight, in 2010, lasted 224 days, the sixth, started in 2020, lasted 908 days – almost three years – before returning to Earth. This, by the way, is one of the unique characteristics of these mini space shuttles, like their larger brothers developed by NASA and launched between 1981 and 2011, because they go up powered by rockets and come down like gliders, using wings to guide themselves to a landing strip. Because they are smaller and unmanned, they are even more versatile than the old NASA vehicles and capable of much longer missions ideal for military applications. What will these vehicles do in space? From a military point of view, they can essentially serve four purposes: force enhancement, space support, space control and force application [6].

The United States is therefore advancing in the escalation of the militarization of space with the launch of the X-37B mini space shuttle. As an increase in strength, the vehicle could offer intelligence and terrain recognition (spy satellite function), communications and meteorology. In space support, the X-37B could be used to take satellites into space or even recover damaged satellites, which is a mission profile that already existed for NASA space shuttles, until the Challenger accident in 1986. As an element of space control, it could have offensive roles (impairing the functioning of enemy satellites and even destroying them) and defensive roles (monitoring the space environment and detecting attacks on satellites, avoiding them). Finally, as an application of force, it could be used to attack ground targets. According to experts, the vehicle could be equipped with precision weapons such as laser- or GPS-guided hypersonic missiles, which could be used to attack targets in enemy territory [6].

Maintaining maximum discretion, the Pentagon says the mission will cover a wide range of tests and experimental objectives. These tests include operating the reusable space plane in new orbital regimes, experimenting with future space domain recognition technologies, and investigating the effects of radiation on materials provided by NASA. Translation: fly higher and further, spy on orbiting satellites and perform scientific experiments. The only thing that is certain is that the two greatest space powers of the 21st century, the United States and China, are expanding the scope of their military actions in space, which, like so many things in these times, sounds both inevitable and undesirable for the future of humanity [6].

6. Is World War 3 avoidable or inevitable?

The resurgence of commercial, financial, technological, cyber and space wars between the United States and China raises the possibility of the outbreak, on a military level, of the 3rd World War involving these two great economic and military powers and their respective allies. In the contemporary era, we see the decline of the United States as a hegemonic power and the rise of China, which tends to play this role in the near future. This situation has already happened in the past throughout the history of humanity when, for example, the Netherlands surpassed Spain economically and militarily and established itself as a hegemonic power from the end of the 16th century until most of the 18th century. The same happened with England, which established itself as a hegemonic power from the second half of the 18th century until the beginning of the 20th century, economically and militarily supplanting the Netherlands and after militarily defeating France in Waterloo in 1815, which also aspired to world power. England, a hegemonic power in the 18th and 19th centuries, was challenged at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century by Germany, which was fighting for the redivision of the world, which resulted in the 1st and 2nd World Wars. After the Second World War, when the world was divided into two areas of influence, one led by the United States and the other by the Soviet Union, a bipolar system was structured that lasted almost half a century under the risk of the outbreak of a nuclear war. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 led the United States to exercise its hegemony in the world without challenge until the beginning of the 21st century. The hegemony of the United States is now being threatened by China.

The exercise of global consensual leadership by the United States, which existed after the Second World War until the 1990s, came to an end with the post-war crisis of economic prosperity and North American military power [10]. The decline of the United States became more pronounced in the first decade of the 21st century at the same time as China’s economic rise, which could become the world’s greatest power in the middle of the 21st century. China has become an economic giant, a vital and integral part of the global supply chain, and the most important trading partner for different countries around the world. However, it is not clear whether there will be a happy ending for humanity. Does the rise of China increase the likelihood of war between the great powers? Will there be a new era of tension between the United States and China as dangerous as the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union was? If China’s prosperity comes at the expense of making the recovery of the economies of the United States and the European Union, as well as the world economy, unfeasible, it could lead the United States and other countries to confront China. This process could generate a situation similar to the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Robert D. Kaplan, an American journalist who studies international politics, states that China’s emergence as a superpower is inevitable and that conflicts of interest with the United States will be unavoidable. He admits a military confrontation between the United States and China [11].

Another possibility is that China is welcomed into the existing order and allowed to prosper within it. This situation could result from the economic interdependence that exists between the United States and China because China depends on the North American market and investments and the United States needs the Chinese Central Bank to buy a large part of the United States’ public debt securities. This situation reinforces the position defended by Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State, who understood that the American interest would be much more easily achieved through cooperation with China. James Pinkerton, an American writer and political analyst, is a harsh critic of the military containment strategy proposed by Robert Kaplan and Kissinger’s accommodation proposal. Pinkerton opposes Kaplan because he considers it unfeasible to have a coalition broad enough to confront China along the lines of the one organized to defeat Germany in the Second World War. Pinkerton proposes that, instead of direct confrontation, the United States government places current Asian powers (India, China and Japan) against each other [11].

From the above, it can be said that there are three scenarios for this conflict:

1) If China’s prosperity comes at the expense of making the recovery of the economies of the United States and the European Union, and also of the world economy, unfeasible, it could lead the United States and other countries to confront China. This process could generate a situation similar to the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. The emergence of China as a superpower is inevitable and conflicts of interest with the United States will be unavoidable, resulting in a military confrontation between the United States and China with the outbreak of the 3rd World War.

2) The rise of China as a hegemonic power could be welcome to the existing order. This situation would be a consequence of the economic interdependence that exists between the United States and China because China depends on the North American market and investments and the United States needs the Chinese Central Bank to buy a large part of the United States’ public debt securities. In this scenario, American interests would be achieved through cooperation with China.

3) As an alternative to scenario 1 of direct confrontation between the United States and China and its allies, the United States government would make the current Asian powers (India, China and Japan) confront each other, which could result in weakening China’s economic and military. The United States would be the major beneficiary in this scenario.

China reacted with predictable fury to the official announcement of the so-called Aukus pact, a historic security agreement uniting Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom that is intended to counter Chinese military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. Under the pact, Australians will have their first nuclear submarine supplied by the United States. There will be at least three. From 2027, North American and British submarines will be stationed in some cities in Australia. Entering a dangerous path, not taking into account concerns of the international community and even risking a new arms race and nuclear proliferation are just some of the accusations made by Beijing against the trio of allies. China, the most populous nation in the world, with the largest army and largest navy in the world, feels “cornered” by the United States and its allies in the western Pacific. In response, President Xi Jinping recently announced that China would accelerate the expansion of its defense spending and named national security as the main concern in the coming years. So how did we get to this point? Is the world approaching a catastrophic conflict in the Pacific between China and the United States and its allies? [12].

Militarily, China today is a force that cannot be underestimated. In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army, which commands China’s military forces, has made enormous advances in technology and innovation, as well as the power of its war arsenal. China’s Dong Feng hypersonic missiles, for example, can travel at five times the speed of sound and are armed with a high explosive or nuclear warhead. This is making the United States Navy’s 7th Fleet, which operates in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean and is based in Yokosuka, Japan, reinforce its military capacity in the face of China’s numerous missile batteries on land. China has also organized a rapid expansion program for its nuclear ballistic missiles with the aim of tripling the number of warheads while building underground facilities to house this weaponry in remote regions in the west of the country [12].

None of this, however, means that China wants to go to war. When it comes to Taiwan, Beijing prefers to exert enough pressure for the island to capitulate and submit without the Chinese military firing a single shot. Therefore, although tensions have grown a lot now and new incidents may appear within this conflict, both sides — China and the West — know that a war in the Pacific would be catastrophic for everyone. Despite the angry rhetoric, the escalation of this confrontation is in no one’s interest [12]

REFERENCES

1.      ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Da nova guerra fria, da guerra comercial, da guerra financeira e da guerra cibernética à 3ª guerra mundial. Available on the website <https://pt.linkedin.com/pulse/da-nova-guerra-fria-comercial-financeira-e-%C3%A0-3%C2%AA-alcoforado>.

2. G1.GLOBO. EUA anunciam pacote de sanções para restringir produção de chips na China. Available on the website <https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/10/08/eua-anunciam-pacote-de-sancoes-para-restringir-producao-de-chips-na-china.ghtml>.

3.      DCIBER. Guerra do futuro: China e EUA disputam domínio da Inteligência Artificial. Available on the website <https://dciber.org/guerra-do-futuro-china-e-eua-disputam-dominio-da-inteligencia-artificial/>.

4.      FORÇAS TERRESTRES. China revela invasão dos EUA aos servidores da Huawei desde 2009. Available on the website <https://www.forte.jor.br/2023/09/23/china-revela-invasao-dos-eua-aos-servidores-da-huawei-desde-2009/#>.

5.     CISO ADVISOR. EUA veem atividade maliciosa da China como preparativo de guerra. Available on the website <https://www.cisoadvisor.com.br/eua-ve-atividade-maliciosa-da-china-como-preparativo-de-guerra/>.

6.     NOGUEIRA, Salvador. China e EUA avançam em militarização do espaço com missões secretas. Available on the website <https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ciencia/2023/12/china-e-eua-disputam-primazia-com-avioes-espaciais-em-missoes-secretas.shtml>.

7.     RICKARDS, James. The death of money (A morte do dinheiro). Publicado pela Penguin Random House UK, 2014.

8.      COINTIMES. China compra 23 toneladas de ouro e bate recorde em reservas. Available on the website <https://cointimes.com.br/china-compra-23-toneladas-de-ouro-e-bate-recorde-em-reservas/>.

9.     NOT@ALTA ESPM. Como funciona a moeda digital da China? Available on the website <https://notaalta.espm.br/o-assunto-do-dia/como-funciona-a-moeda-digital-da-china/>.

10.  KENNEDY, Paul. Ascensão e queda das grandes potências. Publicado pela Editora Europa-America Pt, 1990.

11.  BRUSSI, Antônio José Escobar. A pacífica ascensão da China: perspectivas positivas para o futuro? Publicado na Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol.51, no.1, Brasília, 2008.

12.  GARDNER, Frank. Uma guerra entre EUA e China está mais próxima? Available on the website <https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cp3jxv0l555o>.

* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press,  Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).

Fernando Alcoforado*

Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar as características da guerra fria entre Estados Unidos e China que tem múltiplas dimensões (guerra comercial, guerra financeira, guerra tecnológica, guerra cibernética e guerra no espaço). Neste artigo, foram analisadas cada uma das dimensões que apresenta a guerra fria entre os Estados Unidos e a China com suas consequências. É oportuno observar que a guerra fria está sendo desencadeada pelos Estados Unidos contra a China na tentativa de evitar seu declínio econômico e impedir a ascensão da China como potência hegemônica do planeta que se prevê deve acontecer até meados do século XXI. O recrudescimento das guerras comercial, financeira, tecnológica, cibernética e no espaço entre os Estados Unidos e a China colocam a possibilidade da eclosão, no plano militar, da 3ª Guerra mundial envolvendo estas duas grandes potências econômicas e militares e seus respectivos aliados cuja análise foi processada no final deste artigo.

1. A guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos e China e suas consequências

A guerra comercial é como ficou conhecida a disputa econômica entre os Estados Unidos e a China. O conflito teve início em 2017, quando o então presidente norte-americano Donald Trump tarifou produtos chineses. O objetivo era estimular a compra de produtos nacionais, aumentando assim a criação de empregos nos Estados Unidos. Com o argumento de que buscava proteger os produtores norte-americanos e reverter o déficit comercial que os Estados Unidos têm com a China, o presidente Donald Trump anunciou desde 2018 a adoção de tarifas sobre produtos importados do país asiático. O objetivo era dificultar a chegada de produtos chineses aos Estados Unidos, o que estimularia a produção interna. A ideia central do presidente Trump era deixar os produtos chineses mais caros fazendo com que a população optasse por comprar produtos nacionais [1].

O governo da China, por sua vez, reagiu a esses anúncios com retaliações, chegando a impor também tarifas sobre produtos norte-americanos. Em resposta, a China decidiu aumentar taxas e até mesmo barrar a importação de alguns produtos americanos. Além disso, a nova estratégia da China consistiu em desvalorizar a sua moeda (Yuan) para baratear os produtos chineses e estimular a exportação da China. O governo dos Estados Unidos acusou a China de fazer manipulação cambial. A guerra comercial se transformou, também, em uma guerra cambial. O governo Biden deu continuidade à guerra comercial desencadeada pelo governo Trump e deu mais um passo decisivo na tentativa de contenção do poder chinês com a guerra tecnológica contra a China [1].

O governo Biden adotou, entre outras medidas, um amplo conjunto de controles de exportação que proíbem as empresas chinesas de comprar chips avançados dos Estados Unidos. Estas sanções são sem precedentes nos tempos modernos. Os chips que o governo Biden tenta controlar são semicondutores, os processadores que movem celulares, carros autônomos, computação avançada, drones e equipamentos militares e se tornaram essenciais para a disputa tecnológica desta década. Portanto, a gestão Biden não só continuou a guerra comercial com os chineses, iniciada por Trump, como a elevou a uma guerra tecnológica [2].

2. A guerra financeira entre Estados Unidos e China e suas consequências

A guerra financeira é adotada para desestabilizar as instituições financeiras de um país inimigo e degradar sua capacidade econômica. A destruição da riqueza de um país inimigo através de um ataque a seu mercado pode ser mais eficaz do que afundar navios inimigos, quando se trata de enfraquecer um adversário. Se o atacante puder levar um país a um estado de quase colapso e paralisia, a uma catástrofe financeira enquanto avançando em outras frentes, então a guerra financeira será julgada bem sucedida, mesmo se o atacante incorrer em grandes custos. A guerra financeira tem aspectos ofensivos e defensivos. Os aspectos ofensivos incluem ataques maliciosos em mercados financeiros do país inimigo projetado para interromper o comércio e destruir sua riqueza. Os aspectos defensivos envolvem rápida detecção de um ataque do inimigo seguido de resposta rápida como fechar mercados ou interceptar o tráfego de mensagens inimigas. A acão ofensiva pode consistir na interrupção da primeira tentativa ou retaliação da segunda tentativa. Na teoria, ataque e defesa convergem, já que a retaliação de segunda tentativa pode ser suficientemente destrutiva para impedir ataques de primeira tentativa [7].

A China está à frente dos Estados Unidos com sua doutrina de guerra financeira estratégica. Na implementação da guerra financeira, a China tem adotado formas mais sutis de ataque financeiro como, por exemplo, em janeiro de 2011, o The New York Times informou que a China passou a ser uma vendedora líquida de títulos do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos em 2010, após ser um comprador líquido. O relatório do Times achou esta venda estranha porque a China ainda estava acumulando enormes reservas em dólar de seus superávits comerciais e ainda estava comprando dólares para manipular o valor de sua moeda, o Yuan [7]. Atualmente, a China é o segundo maior credor da dívida pública dos Estados Unidos, atrás do Japão, com um estoque de US$ 835,4 bilhões.

No contexto da guerra financeira entre os Estados Unidos e países asiáticos, entre eles a China, foi criado um sistema de pagamento alternativo não baseado em dólar que está tomando forma na Ásia e o ouro provou ser uma arma financeira eficaz. Esta situação está contribuindo para a construção de novos sistemas bancários e de pagamentos baseados no ouro em substituição ao dólar. A China está consolidando sua posição como uma potência no mercado de ouro. O Banco Central da China elevou suas reservas de ouro pelo nono mês consecutivo, aumentando seu estoque em cerca de 23 toneladas. Com esta adição, o acúmulo total da China atingiu um marco histórico de 2.137 toneladas. Desde 2009, a China tem se empenhado persistentemente na aquisição de ouro físico. Em 2023, sob o comando da China, os bancos centrais globais intensificaram a compra de ouro em uma tentativa de diversificar suas reservas longe do dólar americano [8].

Além de adotar o ouro, a China criou sua moeda digital. Trata-se de uma criptomoeda apoiada por seu banco central, algo que analistas afirmam ter ampliado a liderança do país na corrida global para o desenvolvimento de dinheiro digital por parte de bancos centrais. O Yuan digital é provavelmente a mais avançada das iniciativas de criação de moedas digitais do banco central do mundo até agora. As moedas digitais do banco central (CBDCs) fornecem uma forma pública de pagar e armazenar dinheiro digitalmente. O Yuan digital pode funcionar para pagamento de produtos. A China tem um objetivo de internacionalizar sua moeda como alternativa ao dólar e o Yuan digital poderá ajudar nisso. O Yuan digital é como os atuais métodos eletrônicos de pagamento atuais na China. Os usuários baixam apps de carteiras digitais onde podem guardar recursos e que geram um código QR que pode ser lido por terminais de pagamento. O Yuan digital é projetado para substituir o dinheiro físico em circulação, não dinheiro depositado a longo prazo em contas bancárias. Diferente de criptomoedas como bitcoin, o Yuan digital não vai depender de blockchain, tecnologia de bancos de dados distribuídos que permite que transações sejam validadas sem necessidade de bancos. O uso amplo do Yuan digital dará aos formuladores de política monetária da China maior visibilidade sobre como estão os fluxos de capital na economia do país [9].

Estes esforços financeiros estão sendo realizados pela China lado a lado com esforços maliciosos no ciberespaço e ataques a sistemas que controlam a infraestrutura crítica, lançada pela unidade de espionagem militar da China. A guerra financeira encetada pelos Estados Unidos contra seus inimigos está fazendo com que estes desenvolvam ações que contribuam para produzir danos sobre o sistema econômico e financeiro internacional que apresenta grande fragilidade. Os ataques cibernéticos na infraestrutura dos Estados Unidos, incluindo bancos e outras instituições financeiras, estão crescendo e podem assumir muitas formas. O sucesso dos hackers e a reação do mercado demonstrou que os mercados podem ser manipulados por vários meios. Esses eventos apontam para o tipo mais perigoso de ataque financeiro que combina ataques cibernéticos e guerra financeira. Os mercados de capitais hoje são tudo menos à prova de falhas. Na verdade, eles são cada vez mais propensos a falhas.

3. A guerra tecnológica entre Estados Unidos e China e suas consequências

A ascensão econômica da China e seu rápido sucesso deve ser creditado pelo trabalho miraculoso do governo chinês de tirar centenas de milhões de pessoas da pobreza para a condição de classe média. O rápido crescimento da China tem sido impulsionado principalmente pelo progresso e investimento em tecnologia. A China mostra excepcional inovação tecnológica local. Não por acaso, as empresas chinesas já estão liderando o caminho tecnológico das redes móveis 5G e, também, das futuras redes móveis 6G que deverá ocorrer em 2030 e sua capacidade é elevada para desencadear uma guerra cibernética com os Estados Unidos.  A China está seguindo seu próprio caminho demonstrando que sistemas políticos centralizados e planejados são capazes de impulsionar mais e mais rapidamente o desenvolvimento do que sistemas baseados no livre mercado.

A China pode liderar o futuro digital mesmo se os Estados Unidos tentarem impedir fazendo a sua parte. No que diz respeito à guerra tecnológica, são citados, por exemplo, dois campos de conflito: Tecnologia 5G e Inteligência Artificial (IA). O mercado dos Estados Unidos está fechado desde 2012 para a Huawei, detentora da mais avançada tecnologia 5G, depois que o Comitê de Inteligência do Congresso norte-americano concluiu que a Huawei representa uma ameaça à segurança nacional.  A Huawei, empresa chinesa, tem seus dispositivos de redes móveis de Internet 5G com preços mais baixos do que os dos concorrentes coreanos ou americanos.  Desde 2017, a Huawei é líder mundial como fabricante de equipamentos de redes móveis, fornecendo antenas, retransmissores e outras infraestruturas para as operadoras móveis conectarem seus clientes em qualquer local [1].

A China lançou um programa de incentivo à IA. O plano do governo chinês declara como objetivos explorar esta oportunidade estratégica e ser pioneiro para construir uma vantagem competitiva no desenvolvimento da IA, ou seja, deixar de ser replicadora e assumir a liderança nessa tecnologia de ponta. A era iminente das máquinas inteligentes pode ser um ponto de virada a favor da China na batalha pela hegemonia global com os Estados Unidos. A mais recente Estratégia de Segurança Nacional dos Estados Unidos insiste na necessidade de conquista de liderança em pesquisa, tecnologia, invenção e inovação como pilares da prosperidade americana. Para manter a vantagem competitiva, os Estados Unidos priorizarão tecnologias emergentes críticas para o crescimento econômico e segurança, como ciência de dados, criptografia, tecnologias autônomas e inteligência artificial. Não há dúvidas de que o país que exercer a liderança em Inteligência Artificial (IA) poderá levá-lo à conquista do poder mundial. Quem conquistar uma vantagem decisiva, poderá usar os avanços em IA para minar o poder econômico ou militar de seus oponentes [3].

4. A guerra cibernética entre Estados Unidos e China e suas consequências

A ciência e a tecnologia são utilizadas na guerra cibernética como uma das armas da guerra moderna. A guerra cibernética se apoia na tecnologia da informação e, modernamente, também nos avanços proporcionados pela inteligência artificial. A cibernética é uma ciência de característica interdisciplinar tendo como base a pesquisa cientifica. A guerra cibernética consiste, basicamente, no uso de ataques digitais para fins de espionagem ou sabotagem contra as estruturas estratégicas ou táticas de um país. A espionagem visa roubar informações táticas e estratégicas como dados sobre a movimentação de tropas, os pontos fortes e fracos do sistema bélico do país e qualquer outra informação valiosa sobre recursos necessários para a guerra. Na sabotagem, pode ir de uma ação simples como derrubar os servidores de um site governamental a algo extremamente nocivo como fazer o lançamento de uma ogiva nuclear. A sabotagem se resume a “fazer algo” ao contrário da espionagem, que se resume a “descobrir algo” [1].

Na guerra cibernética, hackers com apoio do Estado, sejam membros das forças militares de um país, ou financiados por tal país, atacam computadores e redes de países oponentes que afetem recursos necessários para a guerra. Eles fazem isso da mesma forma que em qualquer outro computador ou sistema, isto é, estudam o sistema profundamente, descobrem suas falhas e usam essa falhas para controlar esse sistema ou destruí-lo. Hackers podem usar informações confidenciais destinadas a outrem (espionagem) para ganhar a dianteira na batalha contra seu adversário. Podem descobrir a velocidade de um míssil e construir outro míssil ou um avião que possa ultrapassá-lo. Podem descobrir para onde o inimigo está movendo suas tropas e planejar uma emboscada. Podem descobrir quais cientistas são importantes na criação dessas armas, ou qual político foi imprescindível na arrecadação de fundos para o tal sistema bélico e atacá-los diretamente com o uso, por exemplo, de drones. Quando o país possui o controle desses sistemas, é possível, também, sabotar pessoas e estruturas. Ao descobrir como as tropas estão se comunicando, o país ganha acesso à rede para que possa confundir o inimigo e invadir a base deles. Poderia invadir seus sistemas/contas e fraudá-los, se passando por um deles. Ou poderia usar essas informações para controlá-los e chantagear pessoas por causa de algo achado no computador ou sequestrar suas famílias usando informações privadas. Destruir os sistemas de países inimigos tem um resultado óbvio: destrói o que controla esse sistema, e, consequentemente, impede-o de funcionar [1].

Na guerra cibernética entre Estados Unidos e China, em 2023, o Ministério de Segurança do Estado da China (MSS) acusou os Estados Unidos de invadir servidores da Huawei, roubar dados críticos e implantar backdoors desde 2009 no esforço de acessar remotamente um centro de comando e controle externo ao ecossistema invadido, criando uma via permanente para futuras contaminações. Assim, um atacante poderia ter acesso a diversos arquivos e até o controle completo do seu ambiente. O MSS também alegou que os Estados Unidos forçaram empresas de tecnologia a instalar backdoors em seus softwares e equipamentos para conduzir espionagem cibernética e roubar dados. O MSS respondeu chamando os Estados Unidos de “o maior império de hackers e ladrão cibernético global”.  O MSS afirmou que as agências de inteligência dos Estados Unidos têm feito todo o possível para conduzir vigilância, roubo secreto e invasões em muitos países, incluindo a China. O MSS destacou especificamente a Agência de Segurança Nacional dos Estados Unidos (NSA) por realizar ataques sistemáticos e baseados em plataforma contra a China para saquear seus recursos de dados importantes. O MSS afirmou que os Estados Unidos têm usado armas e equipamentos em grande escala para realizar ataques cibernéticos e operações de espionagem cibernética contra a China, Rússia e outros 45 países e regiões ao redor do mundo [4].

Relatório do Departamento de Defesa dos Estados Unidos informa que as atividades cibernéticas maliciosas da China predispõem preparativos do país asiático para um potencial conflito militar com os Estados Unidos. Intitulado “Estratégia Cibernética de 2023”, o relatório observa que a China se envolveu em campanhas prolongadas de espionagem cibernética, roubo e comprometimento contra infraestruturas críticas dos Estados Unidos, incluindo a Base Industrial de Defesa (DIB). No caso de uma guerra, o Departamento de Defesa acredita que a China provavelmente lançará ataques cibernéticos destrutivos contra o país para dificultar a mobilização militar, semear o caos e desviar a atenção e os recursos. Como resultado dessas ameaças, o Departamento de Defesa disse que as operações no ciberespaço são indispensáveis para a força militar e dissuasão integrada dos Estados Unidos e seus aliados. O Departamento de Defesa definiu quatro estratégias que prosseguirá para fazer face às ciberameaças atuais e futuras: 1) Defender a nação; 2) Preparar-se para lutar e vencer as guerras da nação; 3) Proteger o domínio cibernético com aliados e parceiros; e, 4) Construir vantagens duradouras no ciberespaço [5].

5. A guerra no espaço entre Estados Unidos e China e suas consequências

A guerra no espaço entre os Estados Unidos e a China dá seus primeiros passos. China e Estados Unidos avançam na militarização do espaço com missões secretas. Com o lançamento do veículo X-37B, os Estados Unidosnbsp;avançam na escalada pela militarização do espaço. Esta é a sétima missão conduzida pela frota de miniônibus espaciais não tripulados desenvolvidos pela Boeing e hoje pertencente à Força Espacial americana. O lançamento ocorre depois que anbsp;Chinanbsp;levou ao espaço seu próprio miniônibus espacial, em sua terceira missão. Em ambos os casos, os militares fazem enorme segredo das atividades que serão realizadas no espaço. A cada nova missão do X-37B, seu tempo de estadia no espaço tem aumentado. Se o primeiro voo, em 2010, durou 224 dias, o sexto, iniciado em 2020, se estendeu por 908 dias –quase três anos– antes do retorno à Terra. Essa, por sinal, é uma das características únicas desses miniônibus espaciais a exemplo de seus irmãos maiores desenvolvidos pelanbsp;NASAnbsp;e lançados entre 1981 e 2011, porque eles sobem propelidos por foguetes e descem como planadores, usando asas para se guiar a uma pista de pouso. Como são menores e não tripulados, são ainda mais versáteis que os antigos veículos da NASA e capazes de missões muito mais longas ideais para aplicações militares. O que esses veículos vão fazer no espaço? Do ponto de vista militar, eles podem servir essencialmente a quatro propósitos: incremento de força, apoio espacial, controle espacial e aplicação de força [6].

Os Estados Unidos avançam, portanto, na escalada pela militarização do espaço com o lançamento do miniônibus espacial X-37B. Como incremento de força, o veículo poderia oferecer inteligência e reconhecimento de terreno (função de satélite-espião), comunicações e meteorologia. No apoio espacial, o X-37B poderia ser usado para levar satélites ao espaço ou mesmo recuperar satélites danificados que é um perfil de missão que já existia para os ônibus espaciais da NASA, até o acidente com o Challenger, em 1986. Como elemento de controle espacial, ele poderia ter papéis ofensivo (prejudicando o funcionamento de satélites inimigos e mesmo os destruindo) e defensivo (monitorando o ambiente espacial e detectando ataques a satélites, evitando-os). Finalmente, como aplicação de força, ele poderia ser usado para atacar alvos terrestres. De acordo com especialistas, o veículo poderia ser equipado com armas de precisão como mísseis hipersônicos guiados por laser ou GPS, que poderiam ser usadas para atacar alvos no  território inimigo [6].

Mantendo a máxima discrição, o Pentágono diz que a missão cobrirá uma vasta gama de testes e objetivos experimentais. Esses testes incluem operar o avião espacial reutilizável em novos regimes orbitais, experimentar futuras tecnologias de reconhecimento do domínio espacial e investigar os efeitos de radiação sobre materiais fornecidos pela NASA. Traduzindo: voar mais alto e mais longe, espionar satélites em órbita e realizar experimentos científicos. A única coisa certa é que as duas maiores potências espaciais do século 21, Estados Unidos e China estão ampliando o escopo de suas ações militares no espaço, o que, como tantas coisas por esses tempos, soa tão inevitável quando indesejável para o futuro da humanidade [6].

6. A 3ª Guerra Mundial é evitável ou inevitável?

O recrudescimento das guerras comercial, financeira, tecnológica, cibernética e no espaço  entre os Estados Unidos e a China colocam a possibilidade da eclosão, no plano militar, da 3ª Guerra mundial envolvendo estas duas grandes potências econômicas e militares e seus respectivos aliados. Na era contemporânea, constata-se o declínio dos Estados Unidos como potência hegemônica e a ascensão da China que tende a exercer este papel no futuro próximo. Esta situação já aconteceu no passado ao longo da história da humanidade quando, por exemplo, a Holanda superou econômica e militarmente a Espanha e se impôs como potência hegemônica do fim do Século XVI até a maior parte do Século XVIII.  O mesmo aconteceu com a Inglaterra que se impôs como potência hegemônica da segunda metade do Século XVIII até o início do Século XX suplantando econômica e militarmente a Holanda e depois de derrotar militarmente a França em Waterloo em 1815 que ambicionava também o poder mundial. A Inglaterra, potência hegemônica nos séculos XVIII e XIX, foi desafiada no final do século XIX e início do século XX pela Alemanha que lutava pela redivisão do mundo da qual resultou a 1ª e 2ª Guerra Mundial. Após a Segunda Grande Guerra, quando o mundo foi dividido em duas áreas de influência, uma liderada pelos Estados Unidos e outra pela União Soviética, foi estruturado um sistema bipolar que durou quase meio século sob o risco da eclosão de uma guerra nuclear. O desmoronamento da União Soviética em 1989 levou os Estados Unidos a exercerem sua hegemonia no mundo sem contestação até o início do século XXI. A hegemonia dos Estados Unidos está sendo agora ameaçada pela China.

O exercício da liderança consensual global pelos Estados Unidos, que havia depois da 2ª Guerra Mundial até a década de 1990, chegou ao fim com a crise da prosperidade econômica e do poderio militar norte-americano do pós-guerra [10]. O declínio dos Estados Unidos se acentuou na primeira década do século XXI ao tempo em que ocorreu a ascensão econômica da China que pode assumir a condição de maior potência mundial em meados do século XXI. A China se tornou um gigante econômico, uma parte vital e integral da cadeia de suprimentos global e o parceiro comercial mais importante para diferentes países de todo o mundo. Entretanto, não fica claro se haverá um final feliz para a humanidade. Será que a ascensão da China aumenta a probabilidade de guerra entre as grandes potências? Haverá uma nova era de tensão entre Estados Unidos e China tão perigosa quanto foi a Guerra Fria entre Estados Unidos e a União Soviética? Se a prosperidade da China acontecer às custas da inviabilização da recuperação das economias dos Estados Unidos e da União Europeia e, também, da economia mundial, poderia levar os Estados Unidos e outros países a confrontar a China. Este processo poderia gerar uma situação similar à Guerra Fria entre os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética. Robert D. Kaplan, jornalista norte-americano estudioso de política internacional, afirma que a emergência da China como uma superpotência é inevitável e que conflitos de interesses com os Estados Unidos serão incontornáveis. Ele admite uma confrontação militar entre os Estados Unidos e a China [11].

Outra possibilidade é a de que a China seja bem-vinda à ordem existente e que se admita que prospere dentro dela. Esta situação poderia resultar da interdependência econômica existente entre os Estados Unidos e a China porque esta depende do mercado e dos investimentos norte-americanos e os Estados Unidos precisam do Banco Central chinês para comprar boa parte dos títulos da dívida pública dos Estados Unidos. Esta situação reforça a posição defendida por Henry Kissinger, ex-Secretário de Estado norte-americano, que entendia que o interesse americano seria muito mais facilmente alcançado a partir da cooperação com a China.  James Pinkerton, escritor e analista político norte-americano, é um duro crítico da estratégia de contenção militar proposta por Robert Kaplan e da proposta de acomodação de Kissinger. Pinkerton se opõe a Kaplan porque considera inviável uma coalizão suficientemente ampla para o enfrentamento da China nos moldes da organizada para derrotar a Alemanha na 2ª Guerra Mundial. Pinkerton propõe que, ao invés do enfrentamento direto, o governo dos Estados Unidos coloque as atuais potências asiáticas (Índia, China e Japão) umas contra as outras [11].

Pelo exposto, pode-se afirmar que são três os cenários deste conflito:

1) Se a prosperidade da China acontecer às custas da inviabilização da recuperação das economias dos Estados Unidos e da União Europeia e, também, da economia mundial, poderia levar os Estados Unidos e outros países a confrontar a China. Este processo poderia gerar uma situação similar à Guerra Fria entre os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética. A emergência da China como uma superpotência é inevitável e que conflitos de interesses com os Estados Unidos serão incontornáveis disto resultando uma confrontação militar entre os Estados Unidos e a China com a eclosão da 3ª Guerra Mundial.

2) A ascensão da China como potência hegemônica poderá ser bem-vinda à ordem existente. Esta situação seria consequência da interdependência econômica existente entre os Estados Unidos e a China porque esta depende do mercado e dos investimentos norte-americanos e os Estados Unidoss Unidos. Esta situação reforça a posição defendida por Henry Kissinger, ex-Secretário de Estado norte-americano, que entendia que o interesse americano seria muito mais facilmente alcançado a partir da cooperação com a China.  James Pinkerton, escritor e analista político norte-americano, é um duro crítico da estratégia de contenção militar proposta por Robert Kaplan e da proposta de acomodação de Kissinger. Pinkerton se opõe a Kaplan porque considera inviável uma coalizão suficientemente ampla para o enfrentamento da China nos moldes da organizada para derrotar a Alemanha na 2ª Guerra Mundial. Pinkerton propõe que, ao invés do enfrentamento direto, o governo dos Estados Unidos coloque as atuais potências asiáticas (Índia, China e Japão) umas contra as outras [11].

Pelo exposto, pode-se afirmar que são três os cenários deste conflito:

1) Se a prosperidade da China acontecer às custas da inviabilização da recuperação das economias dos Estados Unidos e da União Europeia e, também, da economia mundial, poderia levar os Estados Unidos e outros países a confrontar a China. Este processo poderia gerar uma situação similar à Guerra Fria entre os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética. A emergência da China como uma superpotência é inevitável e que conflitos de interesses com os Estados Unidos serão incontornáveis disto resultando uma confrontação militar entre os Estados Unidos e a China com a eclosão da 3ª Guerra Mundial.

2) A ascensão da China como potência hegemônica poderá ser bem-vinda à ordem existente. Esta situação seria consequência da interdependência econômica existente entre os Estados Unidos e a China porque esta depende do mercado e dos investimentos norte-americanos e os Estados Unidos pública dos Estados Unidos. Esta situação reforça a posição defendida por Henry Kissinger, ex-Secretário de Estado norte-americano, que entendia que o interesse americano seria muito mais facilmente alcançado a partir da cooperação com a China.  James Pinkerton, escritor e analista político norte-americano, é um duro crítico da estratégia de contenção militar proposta por Robert Kaplan e da proposta de acomodação de Kissinger. Pinkerton se opõe a Kaplan porque considera inviável uma coalizão suficientemente ampla para o enfrentamento da China nos moldes da organizada para derrotar a Alemanha na 2ª Guerra Mundial. Pinkerton propõe que, ao invés do enfrentamento direto, o governo dos Estados Unidos coloque as atuais potências asiáticas (Índia, China e Japão) umas contra as outras [11].

Pelo exposto, pode-se afirmar que são três os cenários deste conflito:

1) Se a prosperidade da China acontecer às custas da inviabilização da recuperação das economias dos Estados Unidos e da União Europeia e, também, da economia mundial, poderia levar os Estados Unidos e outros países a confrontar a China. Este processo poderia gerar uma situação similar à Guerra Fria entre os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética. A emergência da China como uma superpotência é inevitável e que conflitos de interesses com os Estados Unidos serão incontornáveis disto resultando uma confrontação militar entre os Estados Unidos e a China com a eclosão da 3ª Guerra Mundial.

2) A ascensão da China como potência hegemônica poderá ser bem-vinda à ordem existente. Esta situação seria consequência da interdependência econômica existente entre os Estados Unidos e a China porque esta depende do mercado e dos investimentos norte-americanos e os Estados Unidos precisam do Banco Central chinês para comprar boa parte dos títulos da dívida pública dos Estados Unidos. Neste cenário, o interesse americano seria alcançado a partir da cooperação com a China.

3) Como alternativa ao cenário 1 do enfrentamento direto entre Estados Unidos e China e seus aliados, o governo dos Estados Unidos faria com que as atuais potências asiáticas (Índia, China e Japão) se confrontassem umas contra as outras da qual poderia resultar o enfraquecimento econômico e militar da China. Os Estados Unidos seriam os grandes beneficiários neste cenário.

A China reagiu com previsível fúria ao anúncio oficial do chamado pacto Aukus, um acordo histórico de segurança que une Austrália, Estados Unidos e Reino Unido que é destinado a enfrentar a expansão militar chinesa na região do Indo-Pacífico. Pelo pacto, os australianos terão seu primeiro submarino nuclear fornecido pelos Estados Unidos. Serão no mínimo três. A partir de 2027, submarinos norte-americanos e britânicos ficarão estacionados em algumas cidades da Austrália. Entrando em um caminho perigoso, não levar em consideração preocupações da comunidade internacional e até arriscar uma nova corrida armamentista e de proliferação nuclear são apenas algumas das acusações feitas por Pequim ao trio de aliados. A China, a nação mais populosa do mundo, com o maior exército e a maior marinha do mundo se sente “encurralada” pelos Estados Unidos e seus aliados no Pacífico ocidental. Em resposta, o presidente Xi Jinping anunciou recentemente que a China aceleraria a expansão de seus gastos com Defesa e nomeou a segurança nacional como a principal preocupação dos próximos anos. Então, como chegamos a esse ponto? O mundo está se aproximando de um conflito catastrófico no Pacífico entre a China e os Estados Unidos e seus aliados? [12].

Militarmente, a China hoje é uma força que não pode ser subestimada. Nos últimos anos, o Exército Popular de Libertação, que comanda as forças militares chinesas, fez enormes avanços em tecnologia e inovação, bem como no poderio de seu arsenal de guerra. Os mísseis hipersônicos Dong Feng da China, por exemplo, podem viajar cinco vezes mais do que a velocidade do som e são armados com um explosivo potente ou um ogiva nuclear. Isso está fazendo a 7ª Frota da Marinha dos Estados Unidos, que atua no Oceano Pacífico e no Oceano Índico e tem base em Yokosuka, no Japão, reforce sua capacidade militar frente às numerosas baterias de mísseis da China em terra. A China também organizou um programa de rápida expansão de seus mísseis balísticos nucleares com o objetivo de triplicar o número de ogivas ao mesmo tempo em que constrói instalações subterrâneas para abrigar esse armamento em remotas regiões no oeste do país [12].

Nada disso, porém, significa que a China queira ir para a guerra. Quando se trata de Taiwan, Pequim prefere exercer uma pressão suficiente para que a ilha capitule e se submeta sem que os militares chineses disparem um único tiro. Portanto, embora as tensões tenham crescido muito agora e possam aparecer novos incidentes dentro desse conflito, ambos os lados — China e Ocidente — sabem que uma guerra no Pacífico seria catastrófica para todos. Apesar da retórica raivosa, a escalada desse enfrentamento não interessa a ninguém [12]

REFERÊNCIAS

1.      ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Da nova guerra fria, da guerra comercial, da guerra financeira e da guerra cibernética à 3ª guerra mundial. Disponível no website <https://pt.linkedin.com/pulse/da-nova-guerra-fria-comercial-financeira-e-%C3%A0-3%C2%AA-alcoforado>.

2. G1.GLOBO. EUA anunciam pacote de sanções para restringir produção de chips na China. Disponível no website <https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2022/10/08/eua-anunciam-pacote-de-sancoes-para-restringir-producao-de-chips-na-china.ghtml>.

3.      DCIBER. Guerra do futuro: China e EUA disputam domínio da Inteligência Artificial. Disponível no website <https://dciber.org/guerra-do-futuro-china-e-eua-disputam-dominio-da-inteligencia-artificial/>.

4.      FORÇAS TERRESTRES. China revela invasão dos EUA aos servidores da Huawei desde 2009. Disponível no website <https://www.forte.jor.br/2023/09/23/china-revela-invasao-dos-eua-aos-servidores-da-huawei-desde-2009/#>.

5.     CISO ADVISOR. EUA veem atividade maliciosa da China como preparativo de guerra. Disponível no website <https://www.cisoadvisor.com.br/eua-ve-atividade-maliciosa-da-china-como-preparativo-de-guerra/>.

6.     NOGUEIRA, Salvador. China e EUA avançam em militarização do espaço com missões secretas. Disponível no website <https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ciencia/2023/12/china-e-eua-disputam-primazia-com-avioes-espaciais-em-missoes-secretas.shtml>.

7.     RICKARDS, James. The death of money (A morte do dinheiro). Publicado pela Penguin Random House UK, 2014.

8.      COINTIMES. China compra 23 toneladas de ouro e bate recorde em reservas. Disponível no website <https://cointimes.com.br/china-compra-23-toneladas-de-ouro-e-bate-recorde-em-reservas/>.

9.     NOT@ALTA ESPM. Como funciona a moeda digital da China? Disponível no website <https://notaalta.espm.br/o-assunto-do-dia/como-funciona-a-moeda-digital-da-china/>.

10.  KENNEDY, Paul. Ascensão e queda das grandes potências. Publicado pela Editora Europa-America Pt, 1990.

11.  BRUSSI, Antônio José Escobar. A pacífica ascensão da China: perspectivas positivas para o futuro? Publicado na Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol.51, no.1, Brasília, 2008.

12.  GARDNER, Frank. Uma guerra entre EUA e China está mais próxima? Disponível no website <https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cp3jxv0l555o>.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 84, condecorado com a Medalha do Mérito da Engenharia do Sistema CONFEA/CREA, membro da Academia Baiana de Educação, da SBPC- Sociedade Brasileira para o Progresso da Ciência e do IPB- Instituto Politécnico da Bahia, engenheiro pela Escola Politécnica da UFBA e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário (Engenharia, Economia e Administração) e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, foi Assessor do Vice-Presidente de Engenharia e Tecnologia da LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company do Rio de Janeiro, Coordenador de Planejamento Estratégico do CEPED- Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento da Bahia, Subsecretário de Energia do Estado da Bahia, Secretário do Planejamento de Salvador, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia ao longo da história e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), de capítulo do livro Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) e A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).

Fernando Alcoforado*

Cet article vise à présenter la contribution de l’astronomie et, en particulier, du télescope James Webb à l’avancement des connaissances sur l’Univers. L’astronomie est l’étude de l’Univers qui existe au-delà de l’atmosphère terrestre. Cela inclut les objets visibles à l’œil nu, comme le Soleil, la Lune, les planètes et les étoiles. Cela inclut également les corps célestes qui ne peuvent être observés qu’avec des télescopes ou d’autres instruments, comme les galaxies lointaines et les petites particules, et cela inclut également des choses que nous ne pouvons pas voir, comme la matière noire et l’énergie noire. La science moderne, c’est-à-dire la science qui a réussi à articuler la méthode d’observation et d’expérimentation avec l’utilisation d’instruments techniques (en particulier le télescope et le microscope), a commencé à se développer proprement en Europe au XVIe siècle. La méthode scientifique moderne comporte des étapes bien définies, comme une sorte de théorie d’investigation. Chaque observation est testée par des hypothèses qui guideront les expériences pour produire des résultats.

L’astronomie est l’une des sciences les plus anciennes de l’histoire. Les premières cultures, comme les Babyloniens, effectuaient des observations méthodiques du ciel nocturne. Des artefacts astronomiques, tels que Stonehenge, un monument préhistorique situé dans la plaine de Salisbury, dans le Wiltshire, en Angleterre, existent depuis l’Antiquité. Cependant, l’invention du télescope par Galilée était nécessaire pour que l’astronomie devienne une science moderne. Historiquement, l’astronomie comprenait des disciplines aussi diverses que l’astrométrie, la navigation céleste, l’astronomie d’observation, la création de calendriers et même l’astrologie, mais l’astronomie professionnelle est aujourd’hui considérée comme synonyme d’astrophysique. Au cours du XXe siècle, le domaine de l’astronomie professionnelle s’est divisé en branches observationnelles et théoriques. L’astronomie observationnelle se concentre sur l’acquisition de données provenant d’observations d’objets célestes, qui sont ensuite analysées à l’aide des principes de base de la physique. L’astronomie théorique est orientée vers le développement de modèles informatiques ou analytiques pour décrire des objets et des phénomènes astronomiques.

Les branches observationnelles et théoriques de l’astronomie se complètent, l’astronomie théorique cherchant à expliquer les résultats d’observation et les observations étant utilisées pour confirmer les résultats théoriques. Il existe huit domaines de l’astronomie :

1) Astrométrie implique des calculs précis des mouvements du Soleil, de la Lune et des planètes. Il comprend également des prévisions d’éclipses solaires et lunaires et de pluies de météores. Il existe également la géoplanétologie, un domaine relativement nouveau qui se concentre sur la découverte et la caractérisation de planètes en dehors du système solaire ;

2) L’astronomie planétaire cherche à identifier comment le système solaire a émergé et se concentre sur la formation, l’évolution et la mort des planètes, des lunes et d’autres objets du système solaire, y compris également la géologie planétaire ;

3) L’astrophysique applique les lois et les théories de la physique aux observations astronomiques pour tenter de comprendre le mécanisme derrière la création de l’Univers et comment il a évolué et évoluera ;

4) L’astrochimie étudie la composition et les réactions des atomes, des molécules et des ions dans l’espace ;

5) L’astrobiologie étudie la vie en dehors de la Terre ;

6) L’astronomie stellaire concerne la classification des étoiles et des populations d’étoiles et étudie le cycle de vie et la structure du Soleil et des étoiles ;

7) L’astronomie galactique étudie notre galaxie – la Voie Lactée – tout en observant à l’extérieur pour déterminer comment ces groupes d’étoiles se forment, changent et meurent ; et,

8) Cosmologie étudie l’origine et la nature de l’univers dont le concept clé est la théorie du Big Bang, l’explication la plus largement acceptée de la façon dont l’univers a commencé. La cosmologie comprend également des sujets purement théoriques, notamment la théorie des cordes, la matière noire et l’énergie noire, ainsi que la notion d’univers multiples ou parallèles.

L’étude de l’espace a beaucoup évolué au fil des années. Dans les temps anciens, l’astronomie pouvait être définie comme la simple activité d’observation des étoiles pour classer les constellations à l’œil nu. Mais aujourd’hui, grâce aux progrès de la technologie, l’humanité est capable de découvrir et d’étudier des corps célestes à la fois dans le système solaire et dans des galaxies très lointaines. Malgré l’évolution de l’astronomie, les scientifiques ont encore du mal à comprendre l’univers et le rôle de l’humanité dans celui-ci. Plus les mystères sont découverts, plus les analyses de la vie au-delà de la Terre deviennent complexes. C’est le cas des avancées dans la connaissance de l’Univers apportées par le télescope révolutionnaire James Webb. Le télescope astronomique a été une invention de Galilée, le père de la science moderne, qui l’a inventé en prenant comme modèle le télescope créé en 1608 par Hans Lippershey à partir des lentilles des premières lunettes, jusqu’alors considérées comme des objets ménagers courants [1].

Avec son télescope, Galilée fait les premières observations du relief de la Lune, des étoiles de la Voie Lactée et des satellites de Jupiter. En pointant son télescope vers la Lune en novembre 1609, Galilée montra que la surface de la Lune n’était pas « polie, régulière et de parfaite sphéricité », mais plutôt « rugueuse et irrégulière, pleine de vastes proéminences et de cavités profondes », similitude de la surface de la Terre elle-même. Galilée terminait alors ses observations de la Lune et tourna son attention vers Jupiter. Après quelques semaines d’observations, il conclut que les corps qui décrivaient des cercles plus petits autour de Jupiter se déplaçaient plus rapidement que ceux qui faisaient des cercles plus grands comme Mercure et Vénus autour le Soleil. Les satellites de Jupiter ont prouvé l’existence de corps célestes tournant autour d’une planète autre que la Terre, en contradiction avec le système géocentrique formulé par Ptolémée et accepté auparavant par la communauté scientifique. Galilée a découvert que La planète Vénus présente des phases, comme celles du Lune, et cette observation l’a amené à conclure que la planète Vénus tourne autour du Soleil, comme l’a déclaré l’astronome Nicolas Copernic dans sa théorie héliocentrique. C’est Galilée qui a prouvé la théorie héliocentrique de Copernic selon laquelle les planètes tournent autour du Soleil et non autour de la Terre comme le prétendait Ptolémée avec sa théorie géocentrique.

Un point important à noter est que, avec l’utilisation du télescope par Galilée, la science est également devenue intimement liée à la « technique », c’est-à-dire à la capacité des êtres humains à développer leurs sens grâce à des inventions, des instruments et, avec eux, connaître et décrire l’Univers. De nombreux modèles de télescopes ont été développés à partir du télescope de Galilée afin que nous disposions d’un modèle d’observation à large portée comme celui que nous offre le télescope Hubble et est actuellement proposé par le télescope révolutionnaire James Webb. Depuis, une véritable « révolution » scientifique et cosmologique a commencé à se développer. Le télescope Hubble, lancé en avril 1990, a permis de capturer des images extrêmement importantes pour les études relatives à l’Univers [2]. Conçu dans les années 1970 et 1980, le télescope spatial Hubble a été lancé en 1990 et a révolutionné l’astronomie. Les images capturées à travers les lentilles de ce télescope ont révélé un Univers bien plus grand et plus beau que ce que les êtres humains avaient imaginé. Le télescope Hubble a obtenu des images détaillées de nébuleuses, qui ont permis de comprendre la formation et la mort des étoiles, a généré des images de plus de 1500 galaxies, montrant un Univers immense, jamais observé auparavant, a présenté une vue en temps réel de la collision d’un comète avec la planète Jupiter, localisé du dioxyde de carbone (CO2) à la surface d’une planète, des planètes en dehors du système solaire ont été identifiées, ont montré des images de collision entre galaxies et ont détecté des trous noirs, qui sont une région de l’espace avec un champ gravitationnel donc intense que même la lumière ne parvient pas à lui échapper.

Les images du télescope James Webb sont encore plus révolutionnaires que celles du télescope Hubble [3]. Le télescope James Webb ne remplace pas le télescope Hubble. En fait, il est complémentaire, car il a des yeux que Hubble n’a pas. Le télescope James Webb est dédié à l’observation de l’Univers dans la lumière infrarouge, tandis que Hubble continuera à l’étudier principalement dans les ondes ultraviolettes et optiques, bien qu’il ait une certaine capacité infrarouge. Le télescope James Webb possède également un miroir beaucoup plus grand que Hubble. Il verra donc des choses qui sont aujourd’hui « invisibles » grâce au télescope Hubble. La première image révélée par le télescope James Webb montre l’Univers lointain. La mission principale du télescope James Webb est d’examiner le rayonnement infrarouge résultant de la naissance de l’Univers avec le Big Bang et de faire des observations sur l’enfance de l’Univers [4].

Les observations d’objets très éloignés constituent le fleuron du télescope, son objectif le plus ambitieux. C’est ce que Hubble ne peut pas faire en raison de ses limites de taille et du manque d’équipement infrarouge contrairement au télescope James Webb. Alors que l’Univers est en expansion, il n’est possible d’observer les 100 premiers millions d’années après le Big Bang que dans l’infrarouge du télescope James Webb. La lumière de la galaxie la plus éloignée sur cette image est apparue alors que l’Univers n’avait que 600 millions d’années. Avec le télescope James Webb, on voit même sa composition chimique. Et puis nous avons découvert que, chimiquement, elle est similaire aux galaxies les plus proches que nous connaissons[5]. Nous apprendrons comment notre propre galaxie s’est formée et comment l’enrichissement chimique de l’Univers a généré notre système solaire et la vie. Il était également impressionnant d’apprendre que le télescope James Webb peut facilement détecter l’eau sur les planètes autour d’autres étoiles ainsi que la lumière de l’étoile qui traverse l’atmosphère d’une planète [5].

Depuis le début des opérations scientifiques du télescope spatial James Webb (JWST) en juillet 2022, une série d’images ont été publiées comme la photo la plus détaillée de l’Univers. L’objectif principal du télescope est d’observer le passé, quelques centaines de milliers d’années après le Big Bang. Par conséquent, il est courant qu’il apporte des images des étoiles et galaxies les plus anciennes jamais détectées. La photo attire l’attention sur l’âge des galaxies qu’on y voit, dont certaines se trouvent à plus de 13 milliards d’années-lumière, pointant vers les débuts de l’Univers (une année-lumière mesure environ 9,5 billions de km). Certains attirent l’attention en raison du record qu’ils représentent, tandis que d’autres surprennent par leur beauté et la richesse de leurs détails. James Webb a observé la galaxie GLASS-z13 située à 13,4 milliards d’années-lumière, considérée par les scientifiques comme la plus ancienne galaxie jamais observée dans l’Univers. Le télescope James Webb a pu capturer la plus ancienne étoile jamais vue dans l’Univers, située à 12,9 milliards d’années-lumière de la Terre. Aerendel, comme on l’appelait, est situé dans la galaxie Sunrise Arc. James Webb a pu capturer l’image d’une étoile supernova – explosion stellaire – survenue entre 3 et 4 milliards d’années-lumière de la Terre. Enfin et surtout, nous avons la galaxie Cartwheel. Le système, qui doit son nom à sa forme semblable à une roue de voiture, est le résultat de la collision entre deux galaxies. Le choc entre géants s’est produit il y a environ 400 millions d’années. La zone la plus brillante de Cartwheel abrite des amas de jeunes étoiles, tandis que l’anneau extérieur présente des étoiles en formation et d’autres explosant en étoiles de supernova [6].

Il ressort de ce qui précède que le télescope James Webb transforme l’astronomie. L’une des principales capacités du télescope James Webb est sa capacité à remonter le temps jusqu’au début de l’Univers, en observant les premières galaxies et étoiles. Le télescope, situé à 1,5 million de kilomètres de la Terre, a déjà repéré la galaxie la plus lointaine et la plus ancienne trouvée jusqu’à présent. Le télescope James Webb a également détecté pour la première fois une « molécule de vie ». Une équipe de scientifiques internationaux a détecté pour la première fois un nouveau composé carboné dans l’espace. Le supertélescope James Webb, avec ses grandes découvertes, montre l’importance du télescope avec une rapidité inattendue, une série d’informations qui pourraient remettre en question les théories cosmologiques.

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5. FREITAS, Felipe. Telescópio James Webb é capaz de detectar água em outro planeta. Disponible sur le site Web <https://mundoconectado.com.br/noticias/v/26842/telescopio-james-webb-e-capaz-de-detectar-agua-em-outro-planeta>.
6. FIORATTI, Carolina. As 5 grandes descobertas do James Webb até aqui. Disponible sur le site Web <https://gizmodo.uol.com.br/as-5-grandes-descobertas-do-james-webb-ate-aqui/>.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 84, a reçoit la Médaille du Mérite en Ingénierie du Système CONFEA / CREA, membre de l’Académie de l’Education de Bahia, de la SBPC – Société Brésilienne pour le Progrès des Sciences et l’IPB – Institut Polytechnique de Bahia, ingénieur de l’École Polytechnique UFBA et docteur en Planification du Territoire et Développement Régional de l’Université de Barcelone, professeur d’Université (Ingénierie, Économie et Administration) et consultant dans les domaines de la planification stratégique, de la planification d’entreprise, planification du territoire et urbanisme, systèmes énergétiques, a été Conseiller du Vice-Président Ingénierie et Technologie chez LIGHT S.A. Entreprise de distribution d’énergie électrique de Rio de Janeiro, coordinatrice de la planification stratégique du CEPED – Centre de recherche et de développement de Bahia, sous-secrétaire à l’énergie de l’État de Bahia, secrétaire à la  planification de Salvador, il est l’auteur de ouvrages Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The  Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), est l’auteur d’un chapitre du livre Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Floride, États-Unis, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) et A revolução da educação necessária ao  Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to present the contribution of astronomy and, in particular, the James Webb telescope to the advancement of knowledge about the Universe. Astronomy is the study of the Universe that exists beyond Earth’s atmosphere. This includes objects that can be seen with the naked eye, such as the Sun, Moon, planets and stars. It also includes celestial bodies that can only be observed with telescopes or other instruments, such as distant galaxies and small particles, and things we cannot see, such as dark matter and dark energy. Modern science, that is, the science that managed to articulate the method of observation and experimentation with the use of technical instruments (especially the telescope and the microscope), began to develop, properly, in Europe in the 16th century. The modern scientific method has well-defined steps, like a kind of investigation theory. Every observation is tested by hypotheses, which will guide experiments to produce results.

Astronomy is one of the oldest sciences in history. Early cultures, such as the Babylonians, carried out methodical observations of the night sky. Astronomical artifacts, such as Stonehenge, a prehistoric monument on Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire, England, have existed since ancient times. However, the invention of the telescope by Galileo Galilei was necessary for astronomy to become a modern science. Historically, astronomy included such diverse disciplines as astrometry, celestial navigation, observational astronomy, calendar making, and even astrology, but professional astronomy today is considered a synonym for astrophysics. During the 20th century, the field of professional astronomy divided into observational and theoretical branches. Observational astronomy focuses on acquiring data from observations of celestial objects, which are then analyzed using basic principles of physics. Theoretical astronomy is oriented toward developing computational or analytical models to describe astronomical objects and phenomena.

The observational and theoretical branches of astronomy complement each other, with theoretical astronomy seeking to explain observational results and observations being used to confirm theoretical results. There are eight fields of astronomy:

1) Astrometry involves precise calculations of the movements of the Sun, Moon and planets. It also includes predictions of solar and lunar eclipses and meteor showers. There is also geoplanetology, a relatively new field that focuses on the discovery and characterization of planets outside the solar system;

2) Planetary astronomy seeks to identify how the solar system emerged and focuses on the formation, evolution and death of planets, moons and other objects in the solar system, also including planetary geology;

3) Astrophysics applies the laws and theories of physics to astronomical observations as an attempt to understand the mechanism behind how the Universe was created and how it has evolved and will evolve;

4) Astrochemistry studies the composition and reactions of atoms, molecules and ions in space;

5) Astrobiology studies life outside Earth;

6) Stellar astronomy concerns the classification of stars and star populations and studies the life cycle and structure of the Sun and stars;

7) Galactic astronomy studies our galaxy — the Milky Way while observing outside it to determine how these groups of stars form, change and die; and,

8) Cosmology studies the origin and nature of the Universe whose key concept is the Big Bang Theory, the most widely accepted explanation of how the universe began. Cosmology also includes purely theoretical subjects, including string theory, dark matter and dark energy, and the notion of multiple or parallel universes.

The study of space has evolved a lot over the years. In ancient times, astronomy could be defined as the activity of simply observing the stars to classify constellations with the naked eye. Nowadays, however, with the advancement of technology, humanity is able to discover and study celestial bodies both in the solar system and in very distant galaxies. Despite the evolution of astronomy, scientists still have difficulty understanding the universe and humanity’s role in it. The more mysteries are discovered, the more complex analyzes of life beyond Earth become. This is the case with the advances in knowledge about the Universe provided by the revolutionary James Webb telescope. The astronomical telescope was an invention of Galileo Galilei, the father of modern science, who perfected the model of telescope created in 1608 by Hans Lippershey from the lenses of the first glasses, until then considered common household items [1].

With his telescope, Galileo made the first observations of the relief of the Moon, the stars of the Milky Way and the satellites of Jupiter. By pointing his telescope at the Moon in November 1609, Galileo showed that the Moon’s surface was not “polished, regular and of perfect sphericity”, but rather “rough and irregular, full of vast prominences and deep cavities”, similarity of the surface of the Earth itself. Galileo was then finishing his observations of the Moon and turned his attention to Jupiter. After a few weeks of observations he concluded that bodies that described smaller circles around Jupiter moved faster than those that did larger circles such as Mercury and Venus around the Sun. Jupiter’s satellites proved the existence of celestial bodies revolving around a planet other than Earth, in contradiction with the geocentric system formulated by Ptolemy that was previously accepted by the scientific community. Galileo discovered that the planet Venus has phases, like those of the Moon, and this observation led him to conclude that the planet Venus revolves around the Sun, as astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus stated in his heliocentric theory. It was Galileo who proved Copernicus’ heliocentric theory that the planets orbit the Sun and not around the Earth as Ptolemy claimed with his geocentric theory.

An important point to note is that, with Galileo’s use of the telescope, science also came to exist intimately connected with “technique”, that is, with the ability of human beings to expand their senses through inventions, of instruments and, with them, know and describe the Universe. Many telescope models were developed from Galileo’s telescope so that we would have a wide-range observation model like the one offered to us by the Hubble telescope and is currently being offered by the revolutionary James Webb telescope. Since then, a true scientific and cosmological “revolution” began to develop. The Hubble telescope, launched in April 1990, was responsible for capturing extremely important images for studies relating to the Universe [2]. Designed in the 1970s and 1980s, the Hubble Space Telescope was launched in 1990 and provided a revolution in Astronomy. The images captured through the lenses of this telescope revealed a Universe much larger and more beautiful than human beings had imagined. The Hubble telescope obtained detailed images of nebulae, which made it possible to understand the formation and death of stars, generated images of more than 1500 galaxies, showing an immense Universe, never observed before, presented a real-time view of the collision of a comet with the planet Jupiter, located carbon dioxide (CO2) on the surface of a planet, planets outside the Solar System were identified, showed images of the collision between galaxies and detected black holes which is a region of space with such an intense gravitational field that not even light can escape it.

The images from the James Webb Telescope are even more revolutionary than those from the Hubble Telescope [3]. The James Webb Telescope is not a replacement for the Hubble Telescope. In fact, it is complementary, as it has eyes that Hubble does not have. The James Webb Telescope is dedicated to observing the Universe in infrared light, while Hubble will continue to study it primarily in ultraviolet and optical waves, although it will have some infrared capability. The James Webb Telescope also has a much larger mirror than Hubble. Therefore, he will see things that are “invisible” today using the Hubble telescope. The first image revealed by the James Webb telescope shows the distant Universe. The primary mission of the James Webb Telescope is to examine the infrared radiation resulting from the birth of the Universe with the Big Bang and to make observations about the infancy of the Universe [4].

Observations of very distant objects are the telescope’s flagship, its most challenging purpose. This is what Hubble cannot do due to size limitations and lack of infrared equipment unlike the James Webb Telescope. As the Universe is expanding, it is only possible to observe the first 100 million years after the Big Bang in the infrared of the James Webb telescope. The light from the most distant galaxy in that image came out when the Universe was just 600 million years old. With the James Webb telescope, we even see its chemical composition. And then we found that, chemically, it is similar to the closest galaxies we know[5]. We will learn how our own galaxy was formed and how the chemical enrichment of the Universe happened to generate our Solar System and life. It was also impressive to learn that the James Webb telescope can easily detect water on planets around other stars and the light from the star that is passing through a planet’s atmosphere [5].

Since the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) began scientific operations in July 2022, a series of images have been released as the most detailed photo of the Universe. The telescope’s main purpose is to peer into the past, looking back a few hundred thousand years after the Big Bang. Consequently, it is common for it to bring images of the oldest stars and galaxies ever detected. The photo draws attention to the age of the galaxies seen there, some of which are more than 13 billion light years away, pointing to the beginnings of the Universe (one light year measures around 9.5 trillion km). Some attract attention due to the record they represent, while others surprise with their beauty and rich details. James Webb looked at the galaxy GLASS-z13 located 13.4 billion light years away, considered by scientists to be the oldest galaxy ever seen in the Universe. The James Webb telescope was able to capture the oldest star ever seen in the Universe, located 12.9 billion light years from Earth. Aerendel, as it was called, is located within the Sunrise Arc galaxy. James Webb was able to capture the image of a supernova star – stellar explosion – that occurred between 3 and 4 billion light years from Earth. Last but not least, we have the Cartwheel galaxy. The system, which gets its name due to its shape similar to a car wheel, is the result of the collision between two galaxies. The clash between giants occurred about 400 million years ago. The brightest area of the Cartwheel is home to clusters of young stars, while the outer ring has stars forming and others exploding into supernova stars [6].

It can be seen from the above that the James Webb Telescope is transforming astronomy. One of the James Webb Telescope’s key abilities is its ability to look back through time to the beginning of the Universe, observing the first galaxies and stars. The telescope, which is 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, has already spotted the most distant and oldest galaxy found so far. The James Webb Telescope also made the first detection of a “molecule of life”. A team of international scientists has detected a new carbon compound in space for the first time. The James Webb super telescope with its great discoveries shows the importance of the telescope by revealing, with unexpected speed, a series of information that could call cosmological theories into question.

REFERENCES

1. FERNANDES, Cláudio. A invenção do telescópio por Galileu Galilei. Available on the website <https://brasilescola.uol.com.br/historiag/a-invencao-telescopio-por-galileu-galilei.htm>.
2. MUNDO EDUCAÇÃO. Telescópio Hubble. Available on the website <https://mundoeducacao.uol.com.br/fisica/telescopio-hubble.htm>.
3. POSSES, Ana, MELLO, Duília e PONTE, Geisa. Astrônomas explicam por que as imagens do James Webb são revolucionárias. Available on the website <https://revistagalileu.globo.com/Ciencia/Espaco/noticia/2022/07/astronomas-explicam-por-que-imagens-do-james-webb-sao-revolucionarias.html>.
4. WIKIPEDIA. Telescópio Espacial James Webb. Available on the website <https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telesc%C3%B3pio_Espacial_James_Webb>.
5. FREITAS, Felipe. Telescópio James Webb é capaz de detectar água em outro planeta. Available on the website <https://mundoconectado.com.br/noticias/v/26842/telescopio-james-webb-e-capaz-de-detectar-agua-em-outro-planeta>.
6. FIORATTI, Carolina. As 5 grandes descobertas do James Webb até aqui. Available on the website <https://gizmodo.uol.com.br/as-5-grandes-descobertas-do-james-webb-ate-aqui/>.

* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),  Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press,  Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023). 

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to present the contribution of astronomy and, in particular, the James Webb telescope to the advancement of knowledge about the Universe. Astronomy is the study of the Universe that exists beyond Earth’s atmosphere. This includes objects that can be seen with the naked eye, such as the Sun, Moon, planets and stars. It also includes celestial bodies that can only be observed with telescopes or other instruments, such as distant galaxies and small particles, and things we cannot see, such as dark matter and dark energy. Modern science, that is, the science that managed to articulate the method of observation and experimentation with the use of technical instruments (especially the telescope and the microscope), began to develop, properly, in Europe in the 16th century. The modern scientific method has well-defined steps, like a kind of investigation theory. Every observation is tested by hypotheses, which will guide experiments to produce results.

Astronomy is one of the oldest sciences in history. Early cultures, such as the Babylonians, carried out methodical observations of the night sky. Astronomical artifacts, such as Stonehenge, a prehistoric monument on Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire, England, have existed since ancient times. However, the invention of the telescope by Galileo Galilei was necessary for astronomy to become a modern science. Historically, astronomy included such diverse disciplines as astrometry, celestial navigation, observational astronomy, calendar making, and even astrology, but professional astronomy today is considered a synonym for astrophysics. During the 20th century, the field of professional astronomy divided into observational and theoretical branches. Observational astronomy focuses on acquiring data from observations of celestial objects, which are then analyzed using basic principles of physics. Theoretical astronomy is oriented toward developing computational or analytical models to describe astronomical objects and phenomena.

The observational and theoretical branches of astronomy complement each other, with theoretical astronomy seeking to explain observational results and observations being used to confirm theoretical results. There are eight fields of astronomy:

1) Astrometry involves precise calculations of the movements of the Sun, Moon and planets. It also includes predictions of solar and lunar eclipses and meteor showers. There is also geoplanetology, a relatively new field that focuses on the discovery and characterization of planets outside the solar system;

2) Planetary astronomy seeks to identify how the solar system emerged and focuses on the formation, evolution and death of planets, moons and other objects in the solar system, also including planetary geology;

3) Astrophysics applies the laws and theories of physics to astronomical observations as an attempt to understand the mechanism behind how the Universe was created and how it has evolved and will evolve;

4) Astrochemistry studies the composition and reactions of atoms, molecules and ions in space;

5) Astrobiology studies life outside Earth;

6) Stellar astronomy concerns the classification of stars and star populations and studies the life cycle and structure of the Sun and stars;

7) Galactic astronomy studies our galaxy — the Milky Way while observing outside it to determine how these groups of stars form, change and die; and,

8) Cosmology studies the origin and nature of the Universe whose key concept is the Big Bang Theory, the most widely accepted explanation of how the universe began. Cosmology also includes purely theoretical subjects, including string theory, dark matter and dark energy, and the notion of multiple or parallel universes.

The study of space has evolved a lot over the years. In ancient times, astronomy could be defined as the activity of simply observing the stars to classify constellations with the naked eye. Nowadays, however, with the advancement of technology, humanity is able to discover and study celestial bodies both in the solar system and in very distant galaxies. Despite the evolution of astronomy, scientists still have difficulty understanding the universe and humanity’s role in it. The more mysteries are discovered, the more complex analyzes of life beyond Earth become. This is the case with the advances in knowledge about the Universe provided by the revolutionary James Webb telescope. The astronomical telescope was an invention of Galileo Galilei, the father of modern science, who perfected the model of telescope created in 1608 by Hans Lippershey from the lenses of the first glasses, until then considered common household items [1].

With his telescope, Galileo made the first observations of the relief of the Moon, the stars of the Milky Way and the satellites of Jupiter. By pointing his telescope at the Moon in November 1609, Galileo showed that the Moon’s surface was not “polished, regular and of perfect sphericity”, but rather “rough and irregular, full of vast prominences and deep cavities”, similarity of the surface of the Earth itself. Galileo was then finishing his observations of the Moon and turned his attention to Jupiter. After a few weeks of observations he concluded that bodies that described smaller circles around Jupiter moved faster than those that did larger circles such as Mercury and Venus around the Sun. Jupiter’s satellites proved the existence of celestial bodies revolving around a planet other than Earth, in contradiction with the geocentric system formulated by Ptolemy that was previously accepted by the scientific community. Galileo discovered that the planet Venus has phases, like those of the Moon, and this observation led him to conclude that the planet Venus revolves around the Sun, as astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus stated in his heliocentric theory. It was Galileo who proved Copernicus’ heliocentric theory that the planets orbit the Sun and not around the Earth as Ptolemy claimed with his geocentric theory.

An important point to note is that, with Galileo’s use of the telescope, science also came to exist intimately connected with “technique”, that is, with the ability of human beings to expand their senses through inventions, of instruments and, with them, know and describe the Universe. Many telescope models were developed from Galileo’s telescope so that we would have a wide-range observation model like the one offered to us by the Hubble telescope and is currently being offered by the revolutionary James Webb telescope. Since then, a true scientific and cosmological “revolution” began to develop. The Hubble telescope, launched in April 1990, was responsible for capturing extremely important images for studies relating to the Universe [2]. Designed in the 1970s and 1980s, the Hubble Space Telescope was launched in 1990 and provided a revolution in Astronomy. The images captured through the lenses of this telescope revealed a Universe much larger and more beautiful than human beings had imagined. The Hubble telescope obtained detailed images of nebulae, which made it possible to understand the formation and death of stars, generated images of more than 1500 galaxies, showing an immense Universe, never observed before, presented a real-time view of the collision of a comet with the planet Jupiter, located carbon dioxide (CO2) on the surface of a planet, planets outside the Solar System were identified, showed images of the collision between galaxies and detected black holes which is a region of space with such an intense gravitational field that not even light can escape it.

The images from the James Webb Telescope are even more revolutionary than those from the Hubble Telescope [3]. The James Webb Telescope is not a replacement for the Hubble Telescope. In fact, it is complementary, as it has eyes that Hubble does not have. The James Webb Telescope is dedicated to observing the Universe in infrared light, while Hubble will continue to study it primarily in ultraviolet and optical waves, although it will have some infrared capability. The James Webb Telescope also has a much larger mirror than Hubble. Therefore, he will see things that are “invisible” today using the Hubble telescope. The first image revealed by the James Webb telescope shows the distant Universe. The primary mission of the James Webb Telescope is to examine the infrared radiation resulting from the birth of the Universe with the Big Bang and to make observations about the infancy of the Universe [4].

Observations of very distant objects are the telescope’s flagship, its most challenging purpose. This is what Hubble cannot do due to size limitations and lack of infrared equipment unlike the James Webb Telescope. As the Universe is expanding, it is only possible to observe the first 100 million years after the Big Bang in the infrared of the James Webb telescope. The light from the most distant galaxy in that image came out when the Universe was just 600 million years old. With the James Webb telescope, we even see its chemical composition. And then we found that, chemically, it is similar to the closest galaxies we know[5]. We will learn how our own galaxy was formed and how the chemical enrichment of the Universe happened to generate our Solar System and life. It was also impressive to learn that the James Webb telescope can easily detect water on planets around other stars and the light from the star that is passing through a planet’s atmosphere [5].

Since the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) began scientific operations in July 2022, a series of images have been released as the most detailed photo of the Universe. The telescope’s main purpose is to peer into the past, looking back a few hundred thousand years after the Big Bang. Consequently, it is common for it to bring images of the oldest stars and galaxies ever detected. The photo draws attention to the age of the galaxies seen there, some of which are more than 13 billion light years away, pointing to the beginnings of the Universe (one light year measures around 9.5 trillion km). Some attract attention due to the record they represent, while others surprise with their beauty and rich details. James Webb looked at the galaxy GLASS-z13 located 13.4 billion light years away, considered by scientists to be the oldest galaxy ever seen in the Universe. The James Webb telescope was able to capture the oldest star ever seen in the Universe, located 12.9 billion light years from Earth. Aerendel, as it was called, is located within the Sunrise Arc galaxy. James Webb was able to capture the image of a supernova star – stellar explosion – that occurred between 3 and 4 billion light years from Earth. Last but not least, we have the Cartwheel galaxy. The system, which gets its name due to its shape similar to a car wheel, is the result of the collision between two galaxies. The clash between giants occurred about 400 million years ago. The brightest area of the Cartwheel is home to clusters of young stars, while the outer ring has stars forming and others exploding into supernova stars [6].

It can be seen from the above that the James Webb Telescope is transforming astronomy. One of the James Webb Telescope’s key abilities is its ability to look back through time to the beginning of the Universe, observing the first galaxies and stars. The telescope, which is 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, has already spotted the most distant and oldest galaxy found so far. The James Webb Telescope also made the first detection of a “molecule of life”. A team of international scientists has detected a new carbon compound in space for the first time. The James Webb super telescope with its great discoveries shows the importance of the telescope by revealing, with unexpected speed, a series of information that could call cosmological theories into question.

REFERENCES

1. FERNANDES, Cláudio. A invenção do telescópio por Galileu Galilei. Available on the website <https://brasilescola.uol.com.br/historiag/a-invencao-telescopio-por-galileu-galilei.htm>.
2. MUNDO EDUCAÇÃO. Telescópio Hubble. Available on the website <https://mundoeducacao.uol.com.br/fisica/telescopio-hubble.htm>.
3. POSSES, Ana, MELLO, Duília e PONTE, Geisa. Astrônomas explicam por que as imagens do James Webb são revolucionárias. Available on the website <https://revistagalileu.globo.com/Ciencia/Espaco/noticia/2022/07/astronomas-explicam-por-que-imagens-do-james-webb-sao-revolucionarias.html>.
4. WIKIPEDIA. Telescópio Espacial James Webb. Available on the website <https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telesc%C3%B3pio_Espacial_James_Webb>.
5. FREITAS, Felipe. Telescópio James Webb é capaz de detectar água em outro planeta. Available on the website <https://mundoconectado.com.br/noticias/v/26842/telescopio-james-webb-e-capaz-de-detectar-agua-em-outro-planeta>.
6. FIORATTI, Carolina. As 5 grandes descobertas do James Webb até aqui. Available on the website <https://gizmodo.uol.com.br/as-5-grandes-descobertas-do-james-webb-ate-aqui/>.

* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),  Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press,  Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023). 

Fernando Alcoforado*

Cet article vise à présenter que le monde a vécu pendant de nombreuses années avec l’existence d’une extrême richesse et d’une extrême pauvreté parmi les êtres humains et avec l’existence de très peu de pays riches qui présentent un développement économique et social avancé aux côtés de la grande majorité des pays pauvres  avec développement économique et social précaire. Le contraste saisissant dans le monde et dans chaque pays entre la concentration excessive des richesses et la présence d’immenses groupes de population soumis à la faim, à la pauvreté et à la misère est une preuve évidente de l’échec absolu du capitalisme en tant que projet civilisateur. Cette situation impose la nécessité de changements dans la société capitaliste dans laquelle nous vivons pour surmonter les inégalités sociales et de richesse dans le monde de l’ère contemporaine.

L’analyse des inégalités de revenus et de richesse dans le monde, basée sur le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport mondial sur les inégalités 2022) réalisé par l’équipe de Thomas Piketty de la Paris School of Economics publié sur le site <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>, nous permet de conclure que les 10 % les plus riches de la population mondiale s’approprient actuellement 52 % du revenu mondial, tandis que la moitié la plus pauvre de la population gagne 8 % du revenu mondial. La carte mondiale des inégalités sociales (figure 1) révèle que, parmi les pays à revenu élevé, certains sont très inégalitaires, comme les États-Unis, tandis que d’autres sont relativement égalitaires, comme par exemple la Suède. Il en va de même pour les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire, certains affichant des inégalités extrêmes comme, par exemple, le Brésil et l’Inde, des niveaux assez élevés comme la Chine, et des niveaux modérés à relativement faibles, comme par exemple la Malaisie et l’Uruguay. Au Brésil, les 50 % les plus pauvres gagnent 29 fois moins que les 10 % les plus riches. Cette valeur est 7 fois inférieure en France.

Figure 1 – Carte mondiale des inégalités sociales

Source : OUTRAS PALAVRAS (AUTRES MOTS). La nouvelle carte des inégalités mondiales. Disponible sur le site <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>. Note : Les pays en rouge couleur sont ceux où les inégalités sociales sont les plus grandes et ceux en jaune couleur sont les pays où les inégalités sociales sont les plus faibles. Les pays dans d’autres couleurs ont des inégalités sociales intermédiaires. Plus il tend vers le rouge couleur, plus les inégalités sociales sont grandes.

Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités dans le monde 2022) indique que les inégalités de richesse à l’échelle mondiale sont encore plus prononcées que les inégalités de revenus de la population mondiale. La moitié la plus pauvre de la population mondiale ne possède pratiquement aucune richesse : elle ne possède que 2 % de la richesse totale de la planète. En revanche, les 10 % les plus riches de la population mondiale possèdent 76 % de toutes les richesses de la planète. En Europe, la richesse des 10 % les plus riches représente environ 36 % de la richesse totale de la région, tandis qu’au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord, ce chiffre atteint 58 % de la richesse totale de la région. Entre ces deux niveaux, il existe une diversité de normes. En Asie de l’Est, les 10 % les plus riches possèdent 43 % de la richesse totale de la région et en Amérique latine, 55 % de la richesse totale de la région.

Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités dans le monde pour 2022) rapporte que les inégalités de richesse se sont accrues parmi les pays les plus riches. L’augmentation de la richesse privée a également été inégale au sein des pays et à l’échelle mondiale. Les milliardaires mondiaux ont gagné une part disproportionnée de la croissance de la richesse mondiale au cours des dernières décennies. Les 1 % les plus riches de la planète ont reçu 38 % de toute la richesse supplémentaire accumulée depuis le milieu des années 1990, tandis que les 50 % les plus pauvres n’ont reçu que 2 % de la richesse mondiale. La richesse des individus les plus riches de la planète a augmenté de 6 à 9 % par an depuis 1995, tandis que la richesse moyenne a augmenté de 3,2 % par an. Depuis 1995, la part de la richesse mondiale détenue par les milliardaires est passée de 1 % à plus de 3 %. Cette augmentation a été exacerbée lors de la nouvelle pandémie de coronavirus. La part de la richesse détenue par les milliardaires du monde est passée de 1 % de la richesse totale des ménages en 1995 à près de 3,5 % aujourd’hui. En fait, 2020 a marqué la plus forte augmentation de la part des milliardaires mondiaux dans la richesse mondiale jamais enregistrée dans le monde (Figure 2).

Figure 2 – Inégalités extrêmes de richesse : la montée des milliardaires dans le monde, 1995-2021

Source : OUTRAS PALAVRAS (AUTRES MOTS). La nouvelle carte des inégalités mondiales. Disponible sur le site <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités mondiales pour 2022) indique que le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord sont les régions du monde les plus inégalitaires en termes de revenus et de richesse, tandis que l’Europe présente les niveaux d’inégalités les plus faibles. Les inégalités de revenus varient considérablement entre la région la plus égalitaire (Europe) et la région la plus inégalitaire (Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord). Les inégalités mondiales semblent aussi grandes aujourd’hui qu’elles l’étaient à l’apogée de l’impérialisme occidental au début du XXe siècle. En fait, la part des revenus actuellement gagnés par la moitié la plus pauvre de la population mondiale est environ la moitié de ce qu’elle était en 1820, avant la grande rupture entre les pays occidentaux et leurs colonies.

Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités dans le monde 2022) rapporte que les nations sont devenues plus riches, mais que les gouvernements sont devenus plus pauvres. Une façon de comprendre ces inégalités consiste à examiner l’écart entre la richesse nette des États et la richesse nette du secteur privé. Au cours des 40 dernières années, les pays sont devenus considérablement plus riches, mais leurs gouvernements se sont considérablement appauvris. La part de la richesse détenue par les acteurs publics est proche de zéro, voire négative dans les pays riches, ce qui signifie que toute la richesse est entre des mains privées (Figure 3). Cette tendance a été amplifiée par la nouvelle pandémie de coronavirus, au cours de laquelle les États ont contracté une dette équivalant à 10 à 20 % du PIB, en levant essentiellement des fonds auprès du secteur privé. Notre conclusion est qu’à l’heure actuelle, le peu de richesse dont disposent les gouvernements nationaux peut entraver la capacité des États nationaux à promouvoir le développement de leur pays, à surmonter les inégalités de revenus et de richesse à l’avenir, ainsi qu’à faire face aux principaux défis du 21e siècle, comme le changement climatique.

Figure 3 – Richesse du secteur privé et du secteur public dans les pays riches, 1970-2020

 Source : OUTRAS PALAVRAS (AUTRES MOTS). La nouvelle carte des inégalités mondiales. Disponible sur le site <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités dans le monde 2022) indique que les inégalités qui existent dans tous les pays du monde sont un choix politique et non une fatalité. Les inégalités de revenus et de richesse se sont accrues dans la majeure partie du monde depuis les années 1980, à la suite d’une série de programmes néolibéraux de déréglementation et de libéralisation qui ont pris différentes formes selon les pays. L’augmentation n’a pas été uniforme. Certains pays ont connu une augmentation spectaculaire des inégalités (notamment les États-Unis, la Russie et l’Inde), tandis que d’autres (les pays européens et la Chine) ont connu des augmentations relativement plus modestes.

Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités dans le monde 2022) indique qu’il n’est pas possible de relever les défis du 21e siècle sans une réduction significative des inégalités de revenus et de richesse. En outre, il soutient que l’essor des États-providence modernes au XXe siècle, qui a été associé à de grands progrès en matière de santé, d’éducation et d’opportunités pour tous, a été associé à de fortes augmentations des impôts progressifs et que cela a joué un rôle clé pour garantir acceptation sociale et politique d’une fiscalité accrue et d’une socialisation des richesses, comme c’est le cas dans les pays scandinaves. Le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités dans le monde pour 2022) présente la thèse selon laquelle des évolutions similaires seront nécessaires pour que les pays du monde entier puissent relever les défis du 21e siècle. Des progrès vers des politiques économiques plus équitables sont en effet possibles, tant à l’échelle mondiale qu’au sein des pays.

Le nouveau rapport d’Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. (Inégalités S.A.) disponible sur le site <https://www.oxfam.org.br/noticias/os-cinco-homens-mais-ricos-do-mundo-dobraram-suas-fortunas-desde-2020-enquanto-cinco-bilhoes-de-pessoas-ficaram-mais-pobres/>, lancé lors du Forum économique mondial de Davos, qui rassemble les dirigeants politiques et économiques mondiaux, et rendu public le 15 janvier, parvient à des conclusions similaires à celles du Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport sur les inégalités mondiales 2022) réalisé par l’équipe de Thomas Piketty de la Paris School of Economics. En résumé, le nouveau rapport d’Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. (Inégalités S.A.) indique ce qui suit :

• Les cinq hommes les plus riches du monde ont plus que doublé leur fortune depuis 2020 – de 405 milliards de dollars à 869 milliards de dollars –, au rythme de 14 millions de dollars par heure, tandis que près de cinq milliards de personnes se sont appauvries. La richesse des cinq hommes les plus riches du monde a augmenté de 114 % depuis 2020.
• Si les tendances actuelles se poursuivent, le monde aura son premier milliardaire d’ici une décennie, mais la pauvreté ne sera pas éradiquée avant 229 ans.
• Les 148 plus grandes entreprises mondiales ont gagné 1 800 milliards de dollars, soit 52 % de plus que la moyenne des trois dernières années, et ont distribué d’importants dividendes à de riches actionnaires tandis que des millions de personnes ont été confrontées à des réductions de salaire.
• Bien qu’ils ne représentent que 21 % de la population mondiale, les pays les plus riches du Nord détiennent 69 % de la richesse mondiale et 74 % de la richesse des milliardaires mondiaux.
• Les 1 % les plus riches du monde possèdent 43 % de tous les actifs financiers mondiaux – 48 % au Moyen-Orient, 50 % en Asie et 47 % en Europe.
• Pour chaque tranche de 100 $ US de bénéfices réalisés par chacune des 96 plus grandes entreprises mondiales entre juillet 2022 et juin 2023, 82 $ US ont été versés à leurs actionnaires les plus riches.
• Partout dans le monde, les gens travaillent de plus en plus longtemps, souvent pour de bas salaires et des emplois précaires et peu sûrs. Les salaires de près de 800 millions de travailleurs n’ont pas suivi l’inflation et ont perdu 1 500 milliards de dollars au cours des deux dernières années (soit 25 jours de salaire perdu pour chaque travailleur).
• Les milliardaires sont 3 300 milliards de dollars plus riches qu’en 2020 et leur richesse a augmenté trois fois plus vite que le taux d’inflation au cours de la période.
• La « guerre contre la fiscalité » menée par les entreprises a abouti à une réduction significative de l’impôt sur les sociétés, jusqu’à un tiers de ce qui était pratiqué au cours des dernières décennies, tandis que ces entreprises privatisaient le secteur public, les services tels que l’éducation et l’eau.

Concernant le Brésil, le rapport d’Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. (Inégalités S.A.) indique ce qui suit :

• Quatre des cinq milliardaires brésiliens les plus riches ont vu leur richesse augmenter de 51 % depuis 2020 ; dans le même temps, 129 millions de Brésiliens se sont appauvris.
• La personne la plus riche du pays possède une fortune équivalente à celle de la moitié la plus pauvre du Brésil (107 millions de personnes).
• Les 1 % les plus riches du Brésil possèdent 60 % des actifs financiers du pays.
• En moyenne, le revenu des Blancs est supérieur de plus de 70 % à celui des Noirs.

Pour surmonter les inégalités qui existent dans le monde, Oxfam suggère aux gouvernements de réduire considérablement l’écart entre les super-riches et le reste de la société, au moyen de:

• Revitalisation de l’État. Un État dynamique et efficace constitue le meilleur mécanisme contre le pouvoir extrême des entreprises. Les gouvernements devraient garantir des soins de santé et une éducation universels et explorer des secteurs clés tels que l’énergie et les transports.

• Contrôle du pouvoir des entreprises, notamment en démantelant les monopoles et en démocratisant les règles en matière de brevets. Cela signifie également légiférer sur des salaires décents, plafonner les salaires des PDG et créer de nouveaux impôts sur les très riches et les entreprises, y compris des impôts permanents sur la richesse et les profits excédentaires. Oxfam estime qu’un impôt sur la fortune des millionnaires et milliardaires du monde entier pourrait générer 1 800 milliards de dollars par an.

• Réinvention des entreprises. Les entreprises compétitives et rentables n’ont pas besoin d’être entravées par la cupidité des actionnaires. Les entreprises démocratiques égalisent mieux les revenus des entreprises. Si seulement 10 % des entreprises américaines appartenaient aux travailleurs, cela pourrait doubler la part de richesse de la moitié la plus pauvre de la population américaine, et notamment doubler la richesse médiane des familles noires.

La principale conclusion tirée du le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport mondial sur les inégalités 2022) réalisé par l’équipe de Thomas Piketty et du rapport Desigualdade S.A. (Inégalités S.A.) d’Oxfam est que les inégalités de revenus et de richesse se creusent dans le monde et au Brésil, où la plupart d’entre elles sont absorbées par une petite partie de la population riche aux dépens de la grande majorité de la population pauvre et la majorité d’entre eux sont absorbés par le secteur privé au détriment du secteur public. Beaucoup se demandent pourquoi il existe des disparités de revenus et de richesse dans le monde et comment les surmonter ? Pour répondre à cette question, il est important de noter que la richesse et la pauvreté ne peuvent être traitées isolément, puisqu’elles sont les faces d’une même médaille formant un ensemble irréductible. La richesse et la pauvreté constituent un « jeu à somme nulle ». En d’autres termes, le gain des riches s’accompagne de la perte des pauvres et vice versa. Pour augmenter les revenus et la richesse des populations et des pays riches, il faut éviter d’augmenter les revenus et la richesse des populations et des pays pauvres et pour augmenter les revenus et la richesse des populations et des pays pauvres, il faut réduire les revenus et la richesse des populations et pays riches. L’analyse des richesses est indissociable de la pauvreté, car la concentration des richesses engendre l’exploitation de l’homme sur l’homme, qui constitue un élément fondateur de la pauvreté.

Il existe une idée largement répandue selon laquelle les causes de la misère et de la pauvreté sont liées aux déséquilibres familiaux, à l’impréparation éducative de l’individu au monde du travail et à son manque de capacité d’entreprendre. Comme cela sera présenté dans les paragraphes suivants, les causes de la pauvreté sont liées aux inégalités sociales résultant de la concentration des richesses dans le capitalisme comme le démontre le Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (Rapport mondial sur les inégalités 2022) et dans le rapport Desigualdade S.A. (Inégalités S.A.) d’Oxfam. Mais pourquoi associer la pauvreté à la société capitaliste, s’il y a toujours eu la pauvreté et les inégalités tout au long de l’histoire de l’humanité depuis que la société humaine a été divisée en classes sociales avec l’avènement de la propriété privée ? Ce phénomène, toujours présent dans les différentes organisations sociales tout au long de l’histoire de l’humanité, présente-t-il une caractéristique centrale du mode de production capitaliste, différente des autres systèmes sociaux comme l’esclavage et la féodalité qui ont précédé le capitalisme ? Le capitalisme génère-t-il une pauvreté qui repose sur des fondements différents de ceux des autres sociétés ?

Selon Karl Marx, toute richesse dans la société capitaliste est le produit du travail, créé par les efforts physiques et mentaux de la classe ouvrière. Les profits, c’est-à-dire le rendement du capital, ne sont, comme Marx l’explique dans Capital (Boitempo Editorial, São Paulo, 2013), rien d’autre que le travail non payé à la classe ouvrière, c’est-à-dire la différence entre la valeur produite du bien ou du service et la valeur qui revient aux travailleurs sous forme de salaire. Un taux de profit croissant implique donc seulement une exploitation croissante de la classe ouvrière, ce qui signifie nécessairement qu’une plus grande partie de la richesse de la société s’accumule entre les mains des capitalistes, c’est-à-dire des détenteurs des moyens de production. Marx a démontré dans ses trois volumes du Capital comment, par divers moyens, le capitalisme peut exploiter la classe ouvrière pour obtenir de plus grands profits, par exemple : 1) l’allongement de la journée de travail, par une intensification du travail dans un délai donné ; et 2) augmenter l’efficacité et la productivité des travailleurs, grâce au remplacement du travail par des machines, etc. Tout cela se reflète dans l’augmentation de la proportion de travail non rémunéré par rapport à la valeur de ce qui est produit par les travailleurs.

Dans la société capitaliste, ce n’est pas le développement précaire qui génère les inégalités sociales et la pauvreté, comme beaucoup le pensent, mais le développement capitaliste lui-même. Dans le capitalisme, plus l’accumulation de capital est grande, plus la richesse est grande et plus la pauvreté est grande. Plus le travailleur produit de richesse, plus l’exploitation est grande, plus la richesse est expropriée (de l’ouvrier) et appropriée (par le capitaliste). Ainsi, ce n’est pas la rareté qui génère la pauvreté, mais l’abondance (avec la concentration des richesses entre quelques mains) qui génère les inégalités et la paupérisation absolues et relatives. Thomas Piketty, un économiste français, a écrit un livre intitulé O Capital no Século XXI (Le capital au XXIe siècle), publié par The Belknap Press de Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2014. Dans ce livre, Piketty remet en question l’idée largement acceptée selon laquelle le capitalisme de marché libre distribue la richesse. Ce que Piketty montre statistiquement, c’est que le capital a eu tendance, tout au long de l’histoire, à produire des niveaux d’inégalité sociale de plus en plus élevés avec la concentration des richesses. C’est exactement la conclusion théorique de Karl Marx, dans le premier volume de sa version du Capital (Boitempo Editorial, São Paulo, 2013). Dans Le Capital de Marx, les inégalités ne sont pas considérées comme le résultat de la répartition des richesses comme le présente le Capital de Piketty au 21e siècle, mais comme le résultat inévitable de la production de richesses sous le capitalisme. Aujourd’hui, de moins en moins de familles détiennent près de la moitié de la richesse mondiale.

Au Brésil, les données de l’IBGE (Institut brésilien de géographie et de statistique) montrent que le revenu mensuel des 1 % les plus riches du pays est près de 34 fois supérieur à celui de la moitié la plus pauvre de la population. Ces données montrent que le revenu des 5 % les plus pauvres a diminué de 3 %, tandis que celui des 1 % les plus riches a augmenté de 8 %. Au Brésil, environ 889 000 personnes sont considérées comme riches. Ce chiffre ne représente que 0,42 % de la population brésilienne. Environ 45 millions de Brésiliens vivent avec un revenu mensuel inférieur au salaire minimum. La population vivant dans la pauvreté au Brésil, selon les données les plus récentes de l’IBGE, correspond à 52 millions d’habitants, dont 15 millions de personnes vivent dans une extrême pauvreté. Parmi ceux qui vivent dans une extrême pauvreté et sont sans abri au Brésil, il y a environ 221 869 personnes, selon l’Institut de recherche économique appliquée (IPEA). Les pauvres sont aussi ceux qui ne sont pas propriétaires, qui ne bénéficient pas du droit au logement, qui représentaient 5,8 millions de logements en 2019, dont 79 % étaient concentrés dans des familles à faible revenu.

Le contraste saisissant entre le développement économique, scientifique et technologique colossal réalisé par l’humanité et la présence d’immenses groupes de population soumis à la faim, à la pauvreté et à la misère est une preuve évidente de l’échec absolu du capitalisme en tant que projet civilisateur. Deux siècles et demi après la révolution industrielle, qui a consolidé les bases matérielles du mode de production capitaliste, déclenchant une augmentation exponentielle de la productivité du travail, plus d’un quart de l’humanité vit encore quotidiennement le fléau de la faim, de la pauvreté et de la misère. Ce problème réside dans l’extrême concentration des revenus et des richesses. Dans une société entièrement marchandisé, ceux qui sont privés d’argent n’ont aucun moyen d’accéder à la nourriture. L’écart croissant entre l’expansion effrénée des richesses et la perpétuation de la pauvreté avec des besoins sociaux gigantesques est une réalité inhérente à la relation capital-travail. La faim, la pauvreté et la misère pour une grande partie de la population sont l’expression maximale des inégalités sociales inhérentes au mode de production capitaliste. La présence d’une grande masse de travailleurs pauvres qui vivent au seuil de la survie biologique abaisse le niveau de vie traditionnel de tous les travailleurs. La pauvreté et la misère à grande échelle fonctionnent ainsi comme un point d’ancrage qui réduit le coût de reproduction de la main-d’œuvre, améliorant l’extraction de plus-value et augmentant le taux de profit. La relation entre l’accumulation de richesse et l’accumulation de pauvreté est directe et inexorable.

Est-il possible de surmonter les inégalités sociales et de richesse dans le capitalisme ? Oxfam suggère que les gouvernements réduisent considérablement l’écart entre les super-riches et le reste de la société, en revitalisant l’État national en le rendant efficient et efficace, en contrôlant le pouvoir des entreprises en démantelant les monopoles privés, en démocratisant les règles des brevets, la législation sur le salaire vital, en limitant les salaires des PDG, et la création de nouveaux impôts sur les super-riches et les entreprises, y compris des impôts permanents sur la richesse et les bénéfices excédentaires, et la réinvention des entreprises à travers la démocratisation du capital des entreprises. Cette proposition ne pourra être mise en œuvre que si l’État providence est mis en œuvre sur le modèle de celui pratiqué dans les pays scandinaves (Suède, Danemark, Norvège, Finlande et Islande) avec l’adaptation nécessaire à chaque pays parce que c’est le plus système social le plus réussi jamais mis en œuvre dans le monde et constitue le berceau du modèle de société le plus égalitaire que le capitalisme ait jamais connu.

L’origine de l’État-providence, à l’instar de celui pratiqué dans les pays scandinaves, remonte à la Suède dans les années 1930, lorsque l’hégémonie social-démocrate a pris forme au sein du gouvernement du pays nordique, initiant une série de réformes sociales et économiques qui allaient inaugurer un nouveau type de capitalisme, par opposition au libéralisme économique raté des décennies précédentes. Naît alors le modèle de développement dit scandinave, qui dépassera rapidement les frontières suédoises pour devenir influent en Europe du Nord, mais deviendra également une référence importante dans la formulation de politiques économiques hétérodoxes (progressistes) à travers la planète. Le succès du modèle de société des pays scandinaves est dû à la combinaison d’un vaste État-providence et de mécanismes rigides de régulation des forces du marché, capables de placer l’économie sur une trajectoire dynamique, tout en atteignant en même temps les meilleurs indicateurs de bien-être social parmi les pays capitalistes.

Le World Happiness Report 2020 montre que les nations les plus heureuses du monde se trouvent en Scandinavie. Ce fait prouve le succès de l’État-providence à l’instar de celui pratiqué dans les pays scandinaves. Les pays nordiques se classent au premier rang en termes de PIB réel par habitant, d’espérance de vie en bonne santé, de plus grande liberté de choix de vie et de plus grande générosité. Ce modèle de société doit être adopté comme solution pour réduire les inégalités sociales dans le monde car, tout au long de l’histoire de l’humanité, le capitalisme n’a pas réussi à construire une société économiquement, socialement et politiquement juste et humaine dans plusieurs pays, laissant en héritage la barbarie sociale de l’extrême richesse et de l’extrême pauvreté qui caractérisent le monde dans lequel nous vivons. Pour mettre fin à la barbarie sociale, promouvoir le progrès économique et social et établir une coexistence civilisée entre tous les êtres humains, il est urgent de construire un nouveau modèle de société dans chaque pays du monde, qui est donc l’État-providence sur le modèle scandinave adapté aux conditions de chaque pays.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 84, a reçoit la Médaille du Mérite en Ingénierie du Système CONFEA / CREA, membre de l’Académie de l’Education de Bahia, de la SBPC – Société Brésilienne pour le Progrès des Sciences et l’IPB – Institut Polytechnique de Bahia, ingénieur de l’École Polytechnique UFBA et docteur en Planification du Territoire et Développement Régional de l’Université de Barcelone, professeur d’Université (Ingénierie, Économie et Administration) et consultant dans les domaines de la planification stratégique, de la planification d’entreprise, planification du territoire et urbanisme, systèmes énergétiques, a été Conseiller du Vice-Président Ingénierie et Technologie chez LIGHT S.A. Entreprise de distribution d’énergie électrique de Rio de Janeiro, coordinatrice de la planification stratégique du CEPED – Centre de recherche et de développement de Bahia, sous-secrétaire à l’énergie de l’État de Bahia, secrétaire à la  planification de Salvador, il est l’auteur de ouvrages Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The  Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), est l’auteur d’un chapitre du livre Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Floride, États-Unis, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) et A revolução da educação necessária ao  Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to present that the world has lived for many years with the existence of extreme wealth and extreme poverty among human beings and with the existence of very few rich countries that present advanced economic and social development alongside the vast majority of poor countries with precarious economic and social development. The stark contrast in the world and in each country between the excessive concentration of wealth and the presence of huge population groups subjected to hunger, poverty and misery is clear proof of the absolute failure of capitalism as a civilizing project. This situation imposes the need for changes to occur in the capitalist society in which we live to overcome social and wealth inequalities in the world in the contemporary era.

The analysis of income and wealth inequalities in the world, based on the Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Report on Inequalities for 2022) produced by Thomas Piketty’s team from the Paris School of Economics published on the website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>, allows us to conclude that the richest 10% of the global population currently appropriate 52% of global income, while the poorest half of the population earns 8% of world income. The world map of social inequality (Figure 1) reveals that, among high-income countries, some are very unequal, like the United States, while others are relatively egalitarian, like, for example, Sweden. The same goes for low- and middle-income countries, with some exhibiting extreme inequality like, for example, Brazil and India, somewhat high levels like China, and moderate to relatively low levels, like, for example, Malaysia and Uruguay. In Brazil, the poorest 50% earn 29 times less than the richest 10%. This value is 7 times lower in France.

Figure 1 – World map of social inequality

 Source: OUTRAS PALAVRAS (OTHER WORDS). The new map of global inequality. Available on the website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>. Note: The countries in red color are those with the greatest social inequality and those in yellow color are the countries with the lowest social inequality. Countries in other colors have intermediate social inequality. The more it tends towards red, the greater the social inequality.

The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report for 2022) reports that global wealth inequalities are even more pronounced than global population income inequalities. The poorest half of the global population barely has any wealth, they have just 2% of the world’s total wealth. In contrast, the richest 10% of the world’s population own 76% of all the wealth on the planet. In Europe, the wealth of the richest 10% is around 36% of the region’s total wealth, while in the Middle East and North Africa this figure reaches 58% of the region’s total wealth. Between these two levels, there is a diversity of standards. In East Asia, the richest 10% own 43% of the region’s total wealth and in Latin America, 55% of the region’s total wealth.

The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report) for 2022 reports that wealth inequalities have increased among the richest countries. The increase in private wealth was also uneven within countries and globally. Global billionaires have earned a disproportionate share of the growth in global wealth in recent decades. The top 1% of global wealth got 38% of all additional wealth accumulated since the mid-1990s, while the bottom 50% got just 2% of global wealth. The wealth of the planet’s richest individuals has grown 6% to 9% per year since 1995, while the average wealth has grown 3.2% per year. Since 1995, the share of global wealth held by billionaires has increased from 1% to more than 3%. This increase was exacerbated during the new Coronavirus pandemic. The share of wealth owned by the world’s billionaires has increased from 1% of total household wealth in 1995 to almost 3.5% today. In fact, 2020 marked the sharpest increase in global billionaires’ share of global wealth ever recorded in the world (Figure 2).

Figure 2 – Extreme wealth inequality: the rise of global billionaires, 1995-2021 

Source: OUTRAS PALAVRAS (OTHER WORDS). The new map of global inequality. Available on the website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report for 2022) reports that the Middle East and North Africa are the most unequal regions in the world in terms of income and wealth, while Europe has the lowest levels of inequality. Income inequality varies significantly between the most equal region (Europe) and the most unequal region (Middle East and North Africa). Global inequalities appear to be as great today as they were at the height of Western imperialism in the early 20th century. In fact, the share of income currently earned by the poorest half of the world’s population is about half of what it was in 1820, before the great rupture between Western countries and their colonies.

The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report for 2022) reports that nations have become richer, but governments have become poorer. One way to understand these inequalities is to look at the gap between the net wealth of governments and the net wealth of the private sector. Over the past 40 years, countries have become significantly richer, but their governments have become significantly poorer. The share of wealth held by public actors is close to zero or negative in rich countries, which means that all wealth is in private hands (Figure 3). This trend was amplified by the new Coronavirus pandemic, during which governments took on debt equivalent to 10-20% of GDP, essentially raising funds from the private sector. Our conclusion is that, currently, the little wealth available by national governments can hinder the ability of the national State to promote the development of their countries, overcome income and wealth inequalities in the future, as well as face the main challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change.

Figure 3 – Private sector and public sector wealth in rich countries, 1970-2020

Source: OUTRAS PALAVRAS (OTHER WORDS). The new map of global inequality. Available on the website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report for 2022) informs that the inequality that exists in every country in the world is a political choice, not an inevitability. Income and wealth inequalities have increased across most of the world since the 1980s, following a series of neoliberal deregulation and liberalization programs that took different forms in different countries. The increase was not uniform. Some countries have experienced spectacular increases in inequality (including the United States, Russia, and India), while others (European countries and China) have experienced relatively smaller increases.

The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report for 2022) informs that facing the challenges of the 21st century is not possible without a significant reduction in income and wealth inequalities. Furthermore, it argues that the rise of modern welfare states in the 20th century, which was associated with great progress in health, education and opportunities for all, was associated with strong increases in progressive taxes and that this played a key role to ensure social and political acceptance of increased taxation and socialization of wealth, as is the case in Scandinavian countries. The Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 (World Inequalities Report for 2022) presents the thesis that similar developments will be necessary for countries around the world to face the challenges of the 21st century. Progress towards fairer economic policies is indeed possible, both globally and within countries.

The new report by Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. (Inequality S.A.), available on the website <https://www.oxfam.org.br/noticias/os-cinco-homens-mais-ricos-do-mundo-dobraram-suas-fortunas-desde-2020- while-five-billion-people-became-poorer/>, launched during the Davos World Economic Forum, which brings together global political and economic leaders, and released on January 15th, reaches conclusions similar to those of the World Inequalities Report for 2022 produced by Thomas Piketty’s team from the Paris School of Economics. In summary, the new report from Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. (Inequality S.A.) states the following:

• The five richest men in the world have more than doubled their fortunes since 2020 – from US$405 billion to US$869 billion -, at a rate of US$14 million per hour, while almost five billion people have become poorer. The wealth of the five richest men in the world has increased by 114% since 2020.
• If current trends continue, the world will have its first trillionaire within a decade, but poverty will not be eradicated for another 229 years.
• The world’s 148 largest companies earned $1.8 trillion, 52% more than the average over the past three years, and distributed hefty dividends to wealthy shareholders while millions of people faced pay cuts.
• Despite representing only 21% of the global population, the richest countries in the Global North hold 69% of global wealth and have 74% of the wealth of the world’s billionaires.
• The richest 1% in the world own 43% of all global financial assets – 48% in the Middle East, 50% in Asia and 47% in Europe.
• For every US$100 of profit made by each of the world’s 96 largest companies between July 2022 and June 2023, US$82 was paid to their richest shareholders.
• People around the world are working longer and longer, often for low wages and precarious, insecure jobs. The salaries of almost 800 million workers have not kept up with inflation and have lost US$1.5 trillion in the last two years (or 25 days of lost wages for each worker).
• Billionaires are US$3.3 trillion richer than in 2020 and their wealth grew three times faster than the inflation rate in the period.
• The “war on taxation” by corporations has resulted in a significant reduction in corporate tax, to a third of what was practiced in recent decades, while these corporations privatized the public sector, segregating services such as education and water.

Regarding Brazil, the Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. (Inequality S.A.) report states the following:

• Four of the five richest Brazilian billionaires have seen their wealth increase by 51% since 2020; at the same time, 129 million Brazilians became poorer.
• The richest person in the country has a fortune equivalent to the poorest half of Brazil (107 million people).
• The richest 1% in Brazil owns 60% of the country’s financial assets.
• On average, the income of white people is more than 70% higher than the income of black people.

To overcome inequality across the world, Oxfam suggests that governments drastically reduce the gap between the super-rich and the rest of society by:

• Revitalization of the State. A dynamic and efficient State is the best mechanism against extreme corporate power. Governments should ensure universal healthcare and education and explore key sectors such as energy and transport.
• Control of corporate power, including through breaking up monopolies and democratizing patent rules. This also means legislating living wages, capping CEO salaries, and creating new taxes on the super-rich and corporations, including taxes on permanent wealth and excess profits. Oxfam estimates that a wealth tax on the world’s millionaires and billionaires could generate $1.8 trillion a year.
• Business reinvention. Competitive and profitable companies do not need to be shackled by shareholder greed. Democratically owned companies better equalize business income. If just 10% of U.S. businesses were worker-owned, it could double the wealth share of the poorest half of the U.S. population, including doubling the median wealth of Black families.

The main conclusion drawn from the World Report on Inequalities for 2022 produced by Thomas Piketty’s team and Oxfam’s Inequality S.A. report is that income and wealth inequalities are growing in the world and in Brazil, where most of them are absorbed by a small portion of the rich population to the detriment of the vast majority of the poor population and the majority of them are absorbed by the private sector to the detriment of the public sector. Many ask why there are income and wealth disparities in the world and how to overcome them? To answer this question, it is important to note that wealth and poverty cannot be treated in isolation, since they are the sides of the same coin forming an irreducible set. Wealth and poverty constitute a “zero-sum game”. That is, the gain of the rich occurs with the loss of the poor and vice versa. To increase the income and wealth of rich populations and countries, it is necessary to prevent the increase in income and wealth of poor populations and countries and to increase the income and wealth of poor populations and countries, it is necessary to reduce income and the wealth of populations and rich countries. The analysis of wealth cannot be dissociated from poverty, as the concentration of wealth generates exploitation of man-by-man, which constitutes a fundamental element of poverty.

There is a widespread thought that the causes of misery and poverty are linked to family imbalances, the individual’s educational unpreparedness for the world of work and the individual’s lack of capacity to undertake. As will be presented in the following paragraphs, the causes of poverty are related to social inequalities resulting from the concentration of wealth in capitalism as demonstrated in the World Report on Inequalities for 2022 and in Oxfam’s Inequality S.A. report. Why associate poverty with capitalist society, if there has always been poverty and inequality throughout human history before capitalism? Does this phenomenon, always present in different social organizations throughout the history of humanity, present some central characteristic in the capitalist mode of production, different from other social systems such as slavery and feudalism that preceded capitalism? Does capitalism generate poverty that is based on different foundations than in other societies?

According to Karl Marx, all wealth in capitalist society is the product of labor, created by the physical and mental efforts of the working class. Profits, which mean the return on capital, are as Marx explained in Capital (Boitempo Editorial, São Paulo, 2013) nothing more than the work not paid to the working class, that is, the difference between the value that is produced of good or service and the value that accrues to workers in the form of wages. An increasing rate of profit, therefore, only implies an increasing exploitation of the working class, which necessarily means a greater part of the wealth in society accumulating in the hands of the capitalists, that is, the holders of the means of production. Marx demonstrated in his three volumes of Capital how, through various means, capitalism can exploit the working class for greater profits, for example: 1) extending the working day, through an intensification of work within a given time; and, 2) increasing the efficiency and productivity of workers, through the replacement of work with machines, etc. All of this is reflected in the increase in the proportion of unpaid work in relation to the value of what is produced by workers.

In capitalist society, it is not precarious development that generates social inequality and poverty, as many think, but capitalist development itself. In capitalism, the greater the accumulation of capital, the greater the wealth and the greater the poverty. The more wealth the worker produces, the greater the exploitation, the more wealth is expropriated (from the worker) and appropriated (by the capitalist). Thus, it is not scarcity that generates poverty, but abundance (with the concentration of wealth in a few hands) that generates absolute and relative inequality and pauperization. Thomas Piketty, a French economist, wrote a book called Capital in the Twenty-First Century, published by The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2014. In this book, Piketty calls into question the largely accepted, that free market capitalism distributes wealth. What Piketty shows statistically is that capital has tended, throughout history, to produce increasingly greater levels of social inequality with the concentration of wealth. This is exactly the theoretical conclusion of Karl Marx, in the first volume of his version of Capital (Boitempo Editorial, São Paulo, 2013). In Marx’s Capital, inequality is seen not as the result of the distribution of wealth as Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century presents, but as an inevitable result of the production of wealth under capitalism. Today we have fewer and fewer families holding almost half of global wealth.

In Brazil, data from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) shows that the monthly income of the richest 1% in the country is almost 34 times greater than the income of the poorest half of the population. This data shows that the income of the poorest 5% fell by 3%, while the income of the richest 1% increased by 8%. Around 889 thousand people are considered rich in Brazil. This number represents just 0.42% of the Brazilian population. Approximately 45 million Brazilians live on a monthly income that is less than the minimum wage. The population living in poverty in Brazil, according to the most recent IBGE data, corresponds to 52 million inhabitants, of which 15 million people are in extreme poverty. Among those who live in extreme poverty and are homeless in Brazil are approximately 221,869 people according to the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA). Poor people are also those who do not own homes, who do not enjoy the right to housing, which totaled 5.8 million homes in 2019, of which 79% were concentrated in low-income families.

The stark contrast between the colossal economic, scientific and technological development achieved by humanity and the presence of immense population groups subjected to hunger, poverty and misery is clear proof of the absolute failure of capitalism as a civilizing project. Two and a half centuries after the Industrial Revolution, which consolidated the material bases of the capitalist mode of production, triggering an exponential increase in labor productivity, more than 1/4 of humanity still lives the scourge of hunger, poverty and misery on a daily basis. This problem lies in the extreme concentration of income and wealth. In a completely commercialized society, those who are deprived of money have no means of accessing food. The growing gap between the unbridled expansion of wealth and the perpetuation of poverty with gigantic social needs is an inherent reality of the capital-labor relationship. Hunger, poverty and misery for a large portion of the population are the maximum expression of social inequality inherent to the capitalist mode of production. The presence of a large mass of impoverished workers who live on the threshold of biological survival lowers the traditional standard of living for all workers. Large-scale poverty and misery thus function as an anchor that reduces the cost of reproducing the workforce, enhancing the extraction of surplus value and increasing the rate of profit. The relationship between the accumulation of wealth and the accumulation of poverty is direct and inexorable.

Is it possible to overcome social and wealth inequalities in capitalism? Oxfam suggests that governments drastically reduce the gap between the super-rich and the rest of society, by revitalizing the national state making it efficient and effective, controlling corporate power by breaking up private monopolies, democratizing the rules of patents, living wage legislation, limiting CEO salaries, and creating new taxes on the super-rich and corporations, including permanent taxes on wealth and excess profits, and the reinvention of business through the democratization of corporate capital. This proposal will only be able to be implemented if the Welfare State is implemented along the lines of that practiced in the Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland) with the necessary adaptation to each country because is the most successful social system already implemented in the world and it is the cradle of the most egalitarian model of society that capitalism has ever known.

The origin of the welfare state along the lines of that practiced in Scandinavian countries dates back to Sweden in the 1930s, when social democratic hegemony took shape in the government of the Nordic country, initiating a series of social and economic reforms that would inaugurate a new type of capitalism, as opposed to the failed economic liberalism of previous decades. The so-called Scandinavian model of development was then born, which would quickly surpass Swedish borders to become influential in northern Europe, but also became an important reference in the formulation of heterodox (progressive) economic policies across the planet. The success of the Scandinavian countries’ model of society was due to the combination of a broad Welfare State with rigid mechanisms for regulating market forces, capable of placing the economy on a dynamic trajectory, while at the same time achieving the best indicators of social well-being among capitalist countries.

The World Happiness Report 2020 shows that the happiest nations in the world are in Scandinavia. This fact proves the success of the welfare state along the lines of that practiced in Scandinavian countries. Nordic countries rank highest in real GDP per capita, highest healthy life expectancy, greatest freedom to make life choices and greatest generosity. This model of society should be adopted as a solution to reduce social inequalities in the world because, throughout the history of humanity, capitalism has failed to build an economically, socially and politically fair and humane society in several countries, leaving social barbarity as a legacy of the extreme wealth and extreme poverty that characterizes the world in which we live. To end social barbarity, promote economic and social progress and establish civilized coexistence among all human beings, it is urgent to build a new model of society in each country in the world, which is, therefore, the Social Welfare State along the lines Scandinavians adapted to the conditions of each country.

* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),  Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press,  Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023). 

Fernando Alcoforado*

Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar que o mundo convive há muitos anos com a existência da extrema riqueza e da extrema pobreza entre os seres humanos e com a existência de pouquíssimos países ricos que apresentam desenvolvimento econômico e social avançado ao lado da grande maioria de países pobres com precário desenvolvimento econômico e social. O contraste gritante no mundo e em cada país entre a excessiva concentração da riqueza e a presença de imensos contingentes populacionais submetidos à fome, à pobreza e à miséria é prova cabal do absoluto fracasso do capitalismo como projeto civilizatório. Esta situação impõe a necessidade de que ocorram mudanças na sociedade capitalista em que vivemos para superar as desigualdades sociais e de riqueza no mundo na era contemporânea.

A análise das desigualdades de renda e de riqueza no mundo, tomando por base o Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 produzido pela equipe de Thomas Piketty da Escola de Economia de Parispublicado no website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>, permite concluir que os 10% mais ricos da população global se apropriam atualmente de 52% da renda global, enquanto a metade mais pobre da população ganha 8% da renda mundial.  O mapa mundial da desigualdade social (Figura 1) revela que, entre os países de alta renda, alguns são muito desiguais como os Estados Unidos, enquanto outros são relativamente igualitários, como, por exemplo, a Suécia. O mesmo vale para países de renda baixa e média, com alguns exibindo desigualdade extrema como, por exemplo, Brasil e Índia, níveis um tanto elevados como a China e níveis moderados a relativamente baixos, como, por exemplo, Malásia e Uruguai. No Brasil, os 50% mais pobres ganham 29 vezes menos do que os 10% mais ricos. Este valor é 7 vezes menor na França.

Figura 1 – Mapa mundial da desigualdade social

Fonte: OUTRAS PALAVRAS. O novo mapa da desigualdade global. Disponível no website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>. Observação: Os países em cor vermelha são os que apresentam maior desigualdade social e os que apresentam cor amarela são os países com menor desigualdade social. Os países nas demais cores apresentam desigualdade social intermediária. Quanto mais tendendo para o vermelho, maior é a desigualdade social. 

O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 informa que as desigualdades de riqueza global são ainda mais pronunciadas do que as desigualdades de renda da população global. A metade mais pobre da população global mal possui alguma riqueza, tem apenas 2% do total da riqueza mundial. Em contraste, os 10% mais ricos da população mundial possuem 76% de toda a riqueza do planeta. Na Europa, a riqueza dos 10% mais ricos é de cerca de 36% da riqueza total da região, enquanto no Oriente Médio e no norte da África este valor chega a 58% da riqueza total da região. Entre esses dois níveis, há uma diversidade de padrões. No Leste Asiático, os 10% mais ricos possuem 43% da riqueza total da região e na América Latina, 55% da riqueza total da região.  

O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 informa que as desigualdades de riqueza aumentaram entre os países mais ricos. O aumento da riqueza privada também foi desigual dentro dos países e em nível mundial. Os multimilionários globais auferiram uma parcela desproporcional do crescimento da riqueza global nas últimas décadas. O 1% do topo da riqueza global ficou com 38% de toda a riqueza adicional acumulada desde meados da década de 1990, enquanto os 50% da base ficou com apenas 2% da riqueza global. A riqueza dos indivíduos mais ricos do planeta cresceu de 6% a 9% ao ano desde 1995, enquanto a riqueza média cresceu 3,2% ao ano. Desde 1995, a parcela da riqueza global em mãos de bilionários aumentou de 1% para mais de 3%. Este aumento foi exacerbado durante a pandemia do novo Coronavirus. A parcela da riqueza possuída pelos bilionários do mundo aumentou de 1% da riqueza total das famílias em 1995 para quase 3,5% hoje. Na verdade, 2020 marcou o aumento mais acentuado na participação dos bilionários globais na riqueza mundial já registrado no mundo (Figura 2).

Figura 2 – Desigualdade extrema de riqueza: o aumento dos bilionários globais, 1995-2021

 Fonte: OUTRAS PALAVRAS. O novo mapa da desigualdade global. Disponível no website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 informa que o Oriente Médio e o norte da África são as regiões mais desiguais do mundo em termos de renda e riqueza, enquanto a Europa tem os níveis de desigualdade mais baixos. A desigualdade de renda varia significativamente entre a região mais igualitária (Europa) e a mais desigual (Oriente Médio e Norte da África). As desigualdades globais parecem ser tão grandes hoje quanto no auge do imperialismo ocidental no início do século XX. Na verdade, a parcela da renda atualmente auferida pela metade mais pobre da população mundial é cerca de metade do que era em 1820, antes da grande ruptura entre os países ocidentais e suas colônias.

O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 informa que as nações ficaram mais ricas, mas os governos se tornaram mais pobres. Uma maneira de entender essas desigualdades é observar a lacuna entre a riqueza líquida dos governos e a riqueza líquida do setor privado. Nos últimos 40 anos, os países tornaram-se significativamente mais ricos, mas seus governos tornaram-se significativamente mais pobres. A parcela da riqueza detida pelos atores públicos é próxima de zero ou negativa nos países ricos, o que significa que a totalidade da riqueza está em mãos privadas (Figura 3). Essa tendência foi ampliada pela pandemia do novo Coronavirus, durante a qual os governos se endividaram o equivalente a 10-20% do PIB, captando recursos essencialmente do setor privado. Nossa conclusão é a de que, atualmente, a pouca riqueza disponível pelos governos nacionais pode inviabilizar a capacidade do Estado nacional de promover o desenvolvimento de seus países, superar as desigualdades de renda e riqueza no futuro, bem como enfrentar os principais desafios do século XXI, como as mudanças climáticas.

Figura 3 – Riqueza do setor privado e do setor público nos países ricos, 1970-2020

Fonte: OUTRAS PALAVRAS. O novo mapa da desigualdade global. Disponível no website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 informa que a desigualdade existente em todos os países do mundo é uma escolha política, não uma inevitabilidade. As desigualdades de renda e de riqueza aumentaram em quase todo o mundo desde a década de 1980, após uma série de programas neoliberais de desregulamentação e liberalização que assumiram diferentes formas em diferentes países. O aumento não foi uniforme. Alguns países experimentaram aumentos espetaculares na desigualdade (incluindo os Estados Unidos, Rússia e Índia), enquanto outros (países europeus e China) experimentaram aumentos relativamente menores.

O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 informa que enfrentar os desafios do século XXI não é possível sem uma redução significativa das desigualdades de renda e riqueza. Além disso, argumenta que a ascensão dos Estados de Bem-Estar Social modernos no século XX, que foi associada a um grande progresso na saúde, educação e oportunidades para todos, estava associada ao forte aumento de impostos progressivos e que isto desempenhou um papel fundamental para garantir a aceitação social e política do aumento da tributação e da socialização da riqueza, como é o caso dos países escandinavos. O Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 apresenta a tese de que uma evolução semelhante será necessária para os países em todo o mundo enfrentarem os desafios do século XXI. O progresso em direção a políticas econômicas mais justas é de fato possível, tanto em nível global como também dentro dos países.  

O novo relatório da Oxfam Desigualdade S.A., disponível no website <https://www.oxfam.org.br/noticias/os-cinco-homens-mais-ricos-do-mundo-dobraram-suas-fortunas-desde-2020-enquanto-cinco-bilhoes-de-pessoas-ficaram-mais-pobres/>, lançado durante o Fórum Econômico Mundial de Davos, que reúne lideranças políticas e econômicas globais, e divulgado no dia 15/01 próximo passado, chega a conclusões similares às do Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 produzido pela equipe de Thomas Piketty da Escola de Economia de Paris. Em síntese, o novo relatório da Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. informa o seguinte:

• Os cinco homens mais ricos do mundo mais que dobraram suas fortunas desde 2020 – de US$ 405 bilhões para US$ 869 bilhões -, a uma taxa de US$ 14 milhões por hora, enquanto quase cinco bilhões de pessoas ficaram mais pobres. A riqueza dos cinco homens mais ricos do mundo aumentou 114% desde 2020.
• Se a tendência atual continuar, o mundo terá seu primeiro trilionário em uma década, mas a pobreza não será erradicada nos próximos 229 anos.
• As 148 maiores empresas do mundo lucraram US$ 1,8 trilhão, 52% a mais do que a média dos últimos três anos, e distribuíram robustos dividendos para acionistas ricos enquanto milhões de pessoas enfrentavam cortes em seus salários.
• Apesar de representarem apenas 21% da população global, os países mais ricos do Norte Global detêm 69% da riqueza global e têm 74% da riqueza dos bilionários do mundo.
• O 1% mais rico do mundo tem 43% de todos os ativos financeiros globais – 48% no Oriente Médio, 50% na Ásia e 47% na Europa.
• Para cada US$ 100 de lucro obtido por cada uma das 96 maiores empresas do mundo, entre julho de 2022 e junho de 2023, US$ 82 foram pagos a seus acionistas mais ricos.
• As pessoas pelo mundo estão trabalhando mais e mais, muitas vezes por salários baixos e empregos precários e inseguros. Os salários de quase 800 milhões de trabalhadoras e trabalhadores não vêm acompanhando a inflação e perderam US$ 1,5 trilhão nos últimos dois anos (ou 25 dias de salários perdidos por cada trabalhador).
• Os bilionários estão US$ 3,3 trilhões mais ricos do que em 2020 e sua riqueza cresceu três vezes mais rápido do que a taxa de inflação no período.
• A “guerra contra a tributação” pelas corporações resultou numa redução significativa do imposto sobre as empresas, para um terço do que era praticado nas últimas décadas, enquanto essas corporações privatizaram o setor público, segregando serviços como o de educação e de água.

Sobre o Brasil, o relatório da Oxfam Desigualdade S.A. informa o seguinte:

• Quatro dos cinco bilionários brasileiros mais ricos tiveram um aumento de 51% de sua riqueza desde 2020; ao mesmo tempo, 129 milhões de brasileiros ficaram mais pobres.
• A pessoa mais rica do país possui uma fortuna equivalente à metade mais pobre do Brasil (107 milhões de pessoas).
• O 1% mais rico do Brasil tem 60% dos ativos financeiros do país.
• Em média, o rendimento das pessoas brancas é mais de 70% superior à renda de pessoas negras.

Para superar a desigualdade existente no mundo, a Oxfam sugere que os governos reduzam drasticamente a diferença entre super-ricos e o resto da sociedade, por meio de:

• Revitalização do Estado. Um Estado dinâmico e eficiente é o melhor mecanismo contra o poder corporativo extremo. Os governos deveriam assegurar saúde e educação universais e explorar setores chave como energia e transporte.
• Controle do poder corporativo, inclusive por meio da quebra de monopólios e da democratização das regras de patentes. Isto também significa legislar sobre salários dignos, limitar os salários dos CEOs e criar novos impostos para os super-ricos e empresas, incluindo impostos permanentes sobre a riqueza e sobre lucros excessivos. A Oxfam estima que um imposto sobre a riqueza dos milionários e bilionários do mundo poderia gerar US$ 1,8 trilhão por ano.
• Reinvenção dos negócios. As empresas competitivas e lucrativas não precisam ser acorrentadas pela ganância dos acionistas. As empresas de propriedade democrática equalizam melhor os rendimentos dos negócios. Se apenas 10% das empresas dos Estados Unidos fossem propriedade dos trabalhadores, isso poderia duplicar a parcela de riqueza da metade mais pobre da população dos Estados Unidos, incluindo a duplicação da riqueza média das famílias negras.

A principal conclusão extraída do Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 produzido pela equipe de Thomas Piketty e do relatório Desigualdade S.A. da Oxfam é a de que as desigualdades de renda e de riqueza são crescentes no mundo e no Brasil em que a maior parte delas é absorvida por uma pequena parcela da população de ricos em detrimento da grande maioria da população de pobres e a maior parte delas é absorvida pelo setor privado em detrimento do setor público. Muitos perguntam porque existem disparidades de renda e de riqueza no mundo e como superá-las? Para responder a esta pergunta é importante observar que riqueza e pobreza não podem ser tratadas de forma isolada, uma vez que são as faces de uma mesma moeda formando um conjunto irredutível. A riqueza e a pobreza constituem um “jogo de soma zero”. Ou seja, o ganho dos ricos ocorre com a perda dos pobres e vice-versa. Para aumentar a renda e a riqueza das populações e dos países ricos, é necessário evitar o aumento da renda e da riqueza das populações e dos países pobres e para aumentar a renda e a riqueza das populações e dos países pobres, é necessário reduzir a renda e a riqueza das populações e dos países ricos. A análise da riqueza não pode ser dissociada da pobreza, pois a concentração da riqueza gera a exploração do homem sobre o homem que se constitui em elemento fundante da pobreza.   

Há um pensamento generalizado de que as causas da miséria e da pobreza estariam vinculadas a desajustes familiares, ao despreparo educacional do indivíduo para o mundo do trabalho e à falta de capacidade do indivíduo para empreender. Como será apresentado nos parágrafos a seguir, as causas da pobreza estão relacionadas com as desigualdades sociais resultantes da concentração da riqueza no capitalismo conforme foi demonstrado no Relatório Mundial sobre as Desigualdades para 2022 e no relatório Desigualdade S.A. da Oxfam. Por que associar a pobreza à sociedade capitalista, se sempre houve pobreza e desigualdade ao longo da história da humanidade antes do capitalismo? Será que este fenômeno, sempre presente nas diversas organizações sociais ao longo da história da humanidade, apresenta alguma característica central no modo de produção capitalista, diferente de outros sistemas sociais como o escravismo e o feudalismo que antecedeu o capitalismo? Será que o capitalismo gera uma pobreza que se funda em bases diferentes de outras sociedades?

Segundo Karl Marx, toda riqueza na sociedade capitalista é produto do trabalho, criada pelos esforços físicos e mentais da classe trabalhadora. Os lucros, que significam o retorno sobre o capital, são como Marx explicou em O Capital (Boitempo Editorial, São Paulo, 2013) nada mais do que o trabalho não pago à classe trabalhadora, isto é, a diferença entre o valor que é produzido de bem ou serviço e o valor que reverte aos trabalhadores na forma de salários. Uma taxa crescente de lucro, portanto, apenas implica em uma exploração crescente da classe trabalhadora, o que significa necessariamente uma maior parte da riqueza na sociedade se acumulando nas mãos dos capitalistas, isto é, dos detentores dos meios de produção. Marx demonstrou em seus três volumes de O Capital como, por vários meios, o capitalismo pode explorar a classe trabalhadora por maiores lucros como, por exemplo: 1) estendendo a jornada de trabalho, através de uma intensificação do trabalho dentro de um dado tempo; e, 2) aumentando a eficiência e a produtividade dos trabalhadores, através da substituição de trabalho por máquinas etc. Tudo isto se reflete no aumento da proporção do trabalho não pago em relação ao valor do que é produzido pelos trabalhadores.

Na sociedade capitalista não é o precário desenvolvimento que gera desigualdade social e pobreza, como muitos pensam, mas o próprio desenvolvimento capitalista. No capitalismo, quanto maior é a acumulação do capital, maior é a riqueza e maior, também, é a pobreza. Quanto mais riqueza produz o trabalhador, maior é a exploração, mais riqueza é expropriada (do trabalhador) e apropriada (pelo capitalista). Assim, não é a escassez que gera a pobreza, mas a abundância (com a concentração da riqueza em poucas mãos) que gera desigualdade e pauperização absoluta e relativa. Thomas Piketty, economista francês, escreveu um livro chamado Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Capital no século XXI) publicado pela The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2014. Neste livro, Piketty coloca em xeque a visão, amplamente aceita, de que o capitalismo de livre mercado distribui riqueza. O que Piketty mostra estatisticamente é que o capital tendeu, através da história, a produzir níveis cada vez maiores de desigualdade social com a concentração da riqueza. Esta é exatamente a conclusão teórica de Karl Marx, no primeiro volume de sua versão de O Capital (Boitempo Editorial, São Paulo, 2013). Em O Capital de Marx, a desigualdade é vista não como o resultado da distribuição da riqueza como O Capital no Século XXI de Piketty apresenta, mas como um resultado inevitável da produção da riqueza sob o capitalismo. Hoje temos cada vez mais poucas famílias detendo quase a metade da riqueza global.

No Brasil, dados do IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) mostram que o rendimento mensal dos 1% mais ricos do país é quase 34 vezes maior do que o rendimento da metade mais pobre da população. Esses dados mostram que a renda dos 5% mais pobres caiu em 3%, enquanto a renda dos 1% mais ricos aumentou em 8%. Cerca de 889 mil pessoas são consideradas ricas no Brasil. Este número representa apenas 0,42% da população brasileira. Aproximadamente 45 milhões de brasileiros vivem com um rendimento mensal que é inferior ao valor de um salário-mínimo. A população que se situa na pobreza no Brasil, segundo dados mais recentes do IBGE, corresponde a 52 milhões de habitantes dos quais 15 milhões de pessoas estão em situação de extrema pobreza. Entre aqueles que se situam em extrema pobreza e estão em situação de rua no Brasil são de aproximadamente 221.869 pessoas de acordo com o Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA). Pobres são, também, os que não possuem moradias, que não usufruem o direito à habitação, que totalizou 5,8 milhões de moradias em 2019, dos quais 79% concentraram-se em famílias de baixa renda. 

O contraste gritante entre o colossal desenvolvimento econômico, científico e tecnológico alcançado pela humanidade e a presença de imensos contingentes populacionais submetidos à fome, à pobreza e à miséria é prova cabal do absoluto fracasso do capitalismo como projeto civilizatório. Passados dois séculos e meio da Revolução Industrial, que consolidou as bases materiais do modo de produção capitalista, desencadeando uma escalada exponencial na produtividade do trabalho, mais de 1/4 da humanidade ainda vive diariamente o flagelo da fome, da pobreza e da miséria. Este problema reside na extrema concentração da renda e da riqueza. Numa sociedade totalmente mercantilizada, quem é privado de dinheiro não possui meio de acesso à comida. O crescente descompasso entre a ampliação desenfreada da riqueza e a perpetuação da pobreza com gigantescas carências sociais é uma realidade inerente à relação capital-trabalho. A fome, a pobreza e a miséria de grande parcela da população são a expressão máxima da desigualdade social inerente ao modo de produção capitalista. A presença de uma grande massa de trabalhadores empobrecidos que vivem no limiar da sobrevivência biológica rebaixa o nível tradicional de vida do conjunto dos trabalhadores. A pobreza e a miséria em grande escala funcionam, assim, como uma âncora que reduz o custo de reprodução da força de trabalho, potencializando a extração de mais valia e a elevação da taxa de lucro. A relação entre acumulação da riqueza e acumulação da pobreza é direta e inexorável.  

Será possível a superação das desigualdades sociais e da riqueza no capitalismo? A Oxfam sugere que os governos reduzam drasticamente a diferença entre super-ricos e o resto da sociedade, por meio da revitalização do Estado nacional tornando-o eficiente e eficaz, do controle do poder corporativo com a quebra de monopólios privados, democratização das regras de patentes, legislação sobre salários dignos, limitação dos salários dos CEOs e criação de novos impostos para os super-ricos e empresas, incluindo impostos permanentes sobre a riqueza e sobre lucros excessivos e a reinvenção dos negócios com com a democratização do capital das empresas. Esta proposta só terá condições de ser implementada se for implantado o Estado de Bem Estar social nos moldes do praticado nos países escandinavos (Suécia, Dinamarca, Noruega, Finlândia e Islândia) com a necessária adaptação a cada país porque é o mais bem sucedido sistema social já implantado no mundo e é o berço do modelo de sociedade mais igualitário que o capitalismo já conheceu.

A origem do Estado de Bem Estar social nos moldes do praticado nos países escandinavos remonta à Suécia dos anos 1930, quando se concretizou a hegemonia social democrata no governo do país nórdico, dando início a uma série de reformas sociais e econômicas que inauguraria um novo tipo de capitalismo, em oposição ao fracassado liberalismo econômico das décadas anteriores. Nascia então o chamado modelo escandinavo de desenvolvimento, que rapidamente ultrapassaria as fronteiras suecas para se tornar influente no norte europeu, mas se tornou, também, uma referência importante na formulação de políticas econômicas heterodoxas (progressistas) em todo o planeta. O sucesso do modelo de sociedade dos países escandinavos se deveu à combinação de um amplo Estado de Bem-Estar Social com rígidos mecanismos de regulação das forças de mercado, capaz de colocar a economia em uma trajetória dinâmica, ao mesmo tempo em que alcançava os melhores indicadores de bem-estar social entre os países capitalistas.

O relatório World Happiness Report 2020 demonstra que as nações mais felizes do mundo estão na Escandinávia. Este fato comprova o sucesso do Estado de Bem Estar social nos moldes do praticado nos países escandinavos. Os países nórdicos possuem a mais alta classificação no PIB real per capita, a maior expectativa de vida saudável, a maior liberdade de fazer escolhas na vida e a maior generosidade. Este modelo de sociedade deveria ser adotado como solução para reduzir as desigualdades sociais no mundo porque, ao longo da história da humanidade, o capitalismo fracassou na construção de uma sociedade econômica, social e politicamente justa e humana em vários países deixando como herança a barbárie social da extrema riqueza e da extrema pobreza que caracteriza o mundo em que vivemos. Para acabar com a barbárie social, promover o progresso econômico e social e estabelecer uma convivência civilizada entre todos os seres humanos urge a edificação de um novo modelo de sociedade em cada país do mundo que é, portanto, o Estado de Bem Estar Social nos moldes escandinavos adaptado às condições de cada país.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 84, condecorado com a Medalha do Mérito da Engenharia do Sistema CONFEA/CREA, membro da Academia Baiana de Educação, da SBPC- Sociedade Brasileira para o Progresso da Ciência e do IPB- Instituto Politécnico da Bahia, engenheiro pela Escola Politécnica da UFBA e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário (Engenharia, Economia e Administração) e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, foi Assessor do Vice-Presidente de Engenharia e Tecnologia da LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company do Rio de Janeiro, Coordenador de Planejamento Estratégico do CEPED- Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento da Bahia, Subsecretário de Energia do Estado da Bahia, Secretário do Planejamento de Salvador, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),  Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia ao longo da história e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), de capítulo do livro Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) e A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).

Fernando Alcoforado*

Résumé : Cet article vise à présenter les innovations majeures attendues dans le futur dans les transports terrestres (urbains, routiers et ferroviaires), par eau, aériens et spatiaux.

Mots clés : L’avenir des transports, les transports terrestres (urbains, routiers et ferroviaires) du futur, les transports par eau du futur, les transports aériens du futur, les transports spatiaux du futur.

Introduction

Cet article vise à présenter les innovations majeures attendues dans le futur dans les transports terrestres (urbains, routiers et ferroviaires), navigables, aériens et spatiaux. L’évolution des moyens de transport était essentielle pour le développement de l’humanité. Les moyens de transport ont été utilisés tout au long de l’histoire, que ce soit pour acquérir de la nourriture, réaliser des constructions, traverser des rivières et des océans, faire la guerre, transporter des personnes et des marchandises, conquérir l’air et l’espace, etc. À mesure que l’humanité évoluait, les moyens de transport ont changé. Le transport terrestre, tout comme le transport navigable, existe depuis le début de l’humanité. La domestication des animaux a introduit une nouvelle façon de placer le poids du transport terrestre sur des animaux plus forts, permettant de transporter des charges plus lourdes, avec une plus grande vitesse et des temps de trajet plus courts. Les chevaux, les chameaux, les bœufs ou encore les êtres humains étaient utilisés comme moyen de transport terrestre sur les chemins de terre. Avec l’invention de la roue, les moyens de transport ne sont plus seulement des animaux mais aussi des charrettes, tirées par des bœufs ou des chevaux, ce qui intensifie le développement des moyens de transport. À partir de ce moment, une partie de l’humanité a acquis la capacité de transporter rapidement davantage de marchandises et de personnes. Les routes pavées ont été construites par de nombreuses civilisations anciennes. Aujourd’hui encore, la roue revêt une importance fondamentale dans notre vie quotidienne. Il y a des roues sur les voitures, les avions, les motos, les planches à roulettes, les patins à roulettes, les charrettes, les vélos, etc. Ce n’est qu’après la première révolution industrielle (XVIIIe siècle) que la quantité et l’efficacité des moyens de transport se sont développées, avec les progrès de la science et de la technologie. De l’invention de la machine à vapeur est née la locomotive, qui a permis le développement du chemin de fer, qui s’est rapidement répandu dans les pays industrialisés et dans le reste du monde.

Le seul mode de transport de marchandises dans le commerce extérieur aux XVe et XVIe siècles était le transport par eau. L’école de Sagres au Portugal a développé, au XVe siècle, la technologie de construction des caravelles ainsi que les techniques de matelotage et de navigation, nécessaires aux grands voyages de découverte. Ce type de navigation a été utilisé principalement par l’humanité, jusqu’à l’émergence de la navigation à vapeur. La diffusion de l’invention de la machine à vapeur a fait naître le rêve de déplacer de grands navires sans dépendre des vents. C’est à partir du XIXème siècle qu’apparaissent les bateaux à vapeur puis plus tard dotés de moteurs propulsés par des dérivés pétroliers. Les navires sont de plus en plus produits pour transporter des marchandises en gros volumes et spécifiquement pour chaque type de cargaison, en plus de les utiliser comme armes de guerre. Avec le développement des bateaux à vapeur, le métro mis en service à Londres en 1863 et les inventions du vélo entre 1817 et 1880, du dirigeable en 1852, de l’ascenseur en 1853, du tramway électrique en 1881, de l’automobile en 1885, de la moto en 1885, camions en 1895, avion en 1905, hélicoptère en 1907, fusée spatiale en 1925, drone en 1977, entre autres inventions, il y a eu une véritable explosion des possibilités dans le domaine des transports. Tous ces moyens de transport comprennent des moyens destinés au transport de personnes ou de marchandises. Les moyens de transport peuvent être classés en trois catégories : terrestre, navigable, aérien et spatial.

Les moyens de transport terrestres se déplacent dans les rues des villes, les chemins de terre, les autoroutes pavées et les voies ferrées en utilisant des trains, des tramways électriques, des ascenseurs urbains, des plans inclinés, des téléphériques, des bus, des métros, des automobiles, des camions, des vélos et des motos. Les voies navigables sont celles qui se déplacent sur l’eau, à l’aide de canoës, de traversiers, de bateaux, de navires, de sous-marins et de porte-avions. Ils sont classés en maritimes (mer), fluviales (rivière) et lacustres (lac). Les moyens de transport aériens sont ceux qui se déplacent dans les airs avec des avions, des hélicoptères, des ballons, des dirigeables et des drones. Les moyens de transport spatial sont ceux qui se déplacent dans l’espace à l’aide de fusées et/ou d’engins spatiaux pour déplacer des astronautes, des satellites artificiels, des sondes spatiales, des robots, des rovers ou tout autre type d’équipement destiné à l’exploration spatiale. Les moyens de transport nécessitent des infrastructures et des véhicules adaptés. Par infrastructure, nous entendons le réseau de transport urbain, le réseau routier, le réseau ferroviaire, réseau du voie navigable, le réseau aérien et le réseau spatial qui sont utilisés, ainsi que les terminaux tels que les gares routières, les gares ferroviaires, les stations de métro, les terminaux portuaires, les aéroports, les centres de lancement de fusées et tous types d’équipements similaires. Les véhicules, tels que les voitures, les vélos, les trains et les avions, entre autres véhicules, ou les personnes ou les animaux eux-mêmes lorsqu’ils se déplacent à pied, empruntent généralement n’importe quel réseau. On peut dire que les moyens de transport ont permis à l’être humain d’occuper tous les espaces de la planète Terre et ont contribué de manière décisive à promouvoir son développement économique et social.

À quoi ressembleront les transports terrestres, fluviaux, aériens et spatiaux du futur ? Les réponses à cette question sont présentées dans les rubriques présentées ci-dessous.

Les transports terrestres (urbains, routiers et ferroviaires) du futur

À quoi ressemblera le transport terrestre du futur [2][3][6][7][8] ? Dans les centres urbains, les gouvernements locaux encourageront l’utilisation de moyens de transport qui suivent la tendance des villes intelligentes et durables, interconnectées par des routes d’accès contrôlées par divers dispositifs utilisant l’intelligence artificielle et l’Internet des objets (IOT) pour maintenir un trafic agile et sûr. Les moyens de transport prioritaires seront le métro, le train, le vélo, le scooter, la marche et le Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). Les systèmes de transport comporteront des technologies telles que la robotique, l’Internet des objets (IOT), des applications et des systèmes de collecte plus modernes. Les solutions ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) surveilleront en temps réel tout ce qui se passe dans le système de bus et créeront une interface avec d’autres modes de mobilité urbaine. La fonction principale des lignes de bus classiques sera de relier les quartiers les plus éloignés en lien avec les lignes de métro.

Les drones et les véhicules volants survoleront les rues de la ville, garantissant respectivement plus de sécurité, de mobilité et de rapidité dans la livraison des produits et des personnes [7]. Les rues disposeront de vastes pistes cyclables, en plus de nombreuses voies exclusives pour les BRT alimentés à l’hydrogène, considéré par l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) comme le carburant du futur, dont le plus grand défi est la production d’hydrogène propre à grande échelle. Très utilisés, les métros et les trains seront incontournables dans les métropoles. Les villes des régions métropolitaines ne seront plus isolées des capitales, sachant que les lignes ferroviaires à grande vitesse traverseront plusieurs communes [7]. La surveillance en temps réel permettra de contrôler les intervalles des feux de circulation, en fonction du flux de circulation, afin d’éviter les embouteillages. Les informations seront affichées aux arrêts de train et de bus, dans les parkings publics et sur des écrans à divers endroits. Les gens pourront planifier, même chez eux, l’utilisation des différents modes de transport, grâce à l’évolution des applications, dont le fameux Global Positioning System (GPS) [7].

Le métro sera le principal moyen de transport public dans les grandes villes, ce qui réduira considérablement les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. L’une des technologies utilisées par ce moyen de transport sera l’Hyperloop, qui permettra à de nombreuses personnes de se déplacer sur une longue distance en peu de temps. Les trains seront en lévitation magnétique dans des tubes sans air, atteignant des vitesses de 240 milles/heure à 720 milles/heure, et relieront différents quartiers des métropoles, approvisionnant souvent les villes des régions métropolitaines. Des trains confortables à vitesse rapide seront courants et éviteront les embouteillages de véhicules à moteur sur les autoroutes. La plupart des lignes ferroviaires des principales capitales mondiales seront alimentées par des énergies renouvelables telles que le solaire photovoltaïque et l’hydrogène [1][7].

Le système sans conducteur, c’est-à-dire sans chauffeur, sera pleinement opérationnel [7]. Les métros, les trains et les bus seront pilotés à distance grâce à un logiciel, offrant ainsi plus de sécurité, de vitesse et de confort aux passagers, puisqu’il sera possible de contrôler la vitesse, l’intervalle entre eux et même l’heure d’ouverture des portes. Grâce au système sans conducteur, le métro pourra réduire les intervalles entre les trains et augmenter la capacité d’accueil des passagers. De plus, une synchronisation parfaite des trains évitera les arrêts brusques et contribuera à réduire la consommation d’énergie. Les trains seront propulsés à l’énergie solaire et à l’hydrogène avec l’abandon du diesel du réseau ferroviaire [7]. Les entreprises de transport et les fournisseurs utiliseront des ressources telles que l’intelligence artificielle, l’Internet des objets, la vitesse du réseau et le big data dans le but de permettre des systèmes de paiement plus efficaces et l’intégration de modalités afin que les métros et les bus puissent être plus largement utilisés par la population [ 7 ].

Les trains qui circulent à des vitesses supérieures à 200 kilomètres par heure peuvent être considérés comme à grande vitesse [4][9]. Le premier système ferroviaire à grande vitesse a été mis en service au Japon en 1964 et était connu sous le nom de train à grande vitesse. Vingt-sept pays dans le monde disposent actuellement de trains à grande vitesse, avec des trains pouvant atteindre plus de 400 km/h. Les continents asiatique et européen disposent des plus grands réseaux ferroviaires rapides qui transportent des passagers et des marchandises. En Corée du Sud, il existe au total 1 104,5 km de voies pour trains rapides, et 425 km supplémentaires sont attendus prochainement. La vitesse maximale des trains en service régulier est actuellement de 305 km/h. La Turquie s’étend sur 621 km de long, dont l’expansion amènera le pays à plus de 2 000 km de voies ferrées pour des services rapides avec des trains fonctionnant à des vitesses allant jusqu’à 250 km/h ou 300 km/h. L’Italie s’étend sur 1 467 km et les trains circulent à une vitesse maximale de 300 km/h. Au Royaume-Uni, le réseau ferroviaire à grande vitesse compte 1 527 km de voies et quatre lignes ferroviaires fonctionnant à une vitesse maximale de 200 km/h. En Suède, de nombreux trains circulent à 200 km/h avec un total de 1 706 km de voies pour des services rapides. Le Japon dispose de 2 764 km de services de trains rapides atteignant une vitesse maximale de 320 km/h. La France compte 2 647 km de voies ferrées et 670 km en construction. L’Allemagne dispose de 3 500 km de lignes, opérationnelles et en construction, avec des trains atteignant des vitesses allant jusqu’à 300 km/h. L’Espagne dispose de 3 240 km de voies ferrées et de trains pouvant atteindre des vitesses allant jusqu’à 310 km/h. La Chine dispose de 35 000 km de lignes ferroviaires à grande vitesse.

Sur les lignes ferroviaires, la maintenance préventive sera effectuée par des drones autonomes, des trains sans conducteur circuleront en toute sécurité à grande vitesse, le fret sera automatiquement envoyé à destination et une technologie intelligente sera conçue pour améliorer l’expérience des passagers et permettre des voyages sans billet. Il y aura l’amélioration et la diffusion des systèmes de pilotage automatique à bord des trains, ce qui optimisera encore les temps de trajet et mettra peut-être fin aux retards. Les robots intelligents construiront de nouvelles infrastructures ferroviaires et moderniseront les anciennes. Les progrès technologiques seront également essentiels pour améliorer l’expérience utilisateur, en fournissant des informations précises sur les itinéraires en temps réel et en permettant un accès ininterrompu au travail et aux divertissements lors de vos déplacements via les réseaux Internet sans fil 5G. La technologie de lévitation magnétique exceptionnellement silencieuse et efficace utilisée dans le système de transport entièrement automatisé permettra également au système de servir d’alternative peu encombrante et à faibles émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Le système fonctionnera à des vitesses allant jusqu’à 150 km/h, étant capable de déplacer jusqu’à 180 conteneurs/heure individuellement et entièrement électriquement [5].

L’un des problèmes des systèmes de transport urbain est le manque de coordination entre les différents modes de transport. Les gens veulent savoir comment se rendre d’un point A à un point B le plus facilement possible, que ce soit à pied, à vélo, à moto, en métro, en bus, en train, Uber ou en taxi – ou une combinaison de tout ou partie de ces moyens. Dans le passé, nous ne disposions pas de suffisamment de données. Maintenant nous avons. Et nous pourrons à tout moment compter sur nos smartphones connectés pour nous aider à visualiser tout cela. L’application vous indiquerait le moyen le plus rapide d’atteindre votre destination en combinant tous les moyens de transport intégrés, qu’il s’agisse d’une voiture électrique, d’un métro, d’un bus ou d’un taxi. Il y aura une prolifération de véhicules électriques. Des véhicules volants partagés, entièrement électriques et progressivement autonomes, capables de décoller et d’atterrir verticalement, traverseront le ciel des villes. À cette fin, les sommets des bâtiments appartenant aux entreprises partenaires du transport aérien serviront de points de décollage, d’atterrissage et de ravitaillement [7]. Les gens utiliseront de plus en plus de scooters électriques partagés et/ou privés, entièrement durables, comme alternative au métro ou au bus [7].

L’automobile du futur sera de plus en plus autonome, plus électrique, plus connectée et partagée. Les véhicules électriques et autonomes semblent être les principaux moteurs de la transformation cruciale qui aura lieu dans les transports urbains [3]. Les véhicules autonomes existent donc déjà et il ne s’agit pas d’un projet futuriste [8]. L’idée est de renforcer les transports publics. Ainsi, dans une ville intelligente, les gens peuvent se débarrasser de leurs voitures, qui constituent une menace pour la santé de la population en encombrant nos villes et en compromettant la qualité de l’air avec l’utilisation de combustibles fossiles. Dans de nombreux pays, les bus et autres systèmes de transport sans conducteur sont testés comme véhicules autonomes. Des véhicules autonomes publics ou privés nous relieront de chez nous à un pôle de transport. Il existe déjà des bus sans conducteur dans le canton de Schaffhouse, en Suisse, qui circulent autour de la ville de Neuhausen am Rheinfall et prennent et déposent des passagers tout en travaillant dans la circulation [8]. Un employé peut prendre le contrôle du véhicule à partir d’une télécommande, en cas d’imprévu.

​ À l’avenir, les autoroutes ne seront pas aussi dangereuses qu’elles le sont aujourd’hui. Les véhicules n’auront pas de chauffeur et n’émettront pas de déchets polluants dans l’air. Les autoroutes seront contrôlées par des technologies sophistiquées qui communiqueront avec les voitures, extrairont l’énergie du Soleil, intégreront les infrastructures routières et les systèmes GPS [6]. Les autoroutes du futur sont déjà en train d’être conçues. Les autoroutes du futur seront dotées de panneaux solaires avancés qui généreront une énergie propre et renouvelable et rechargeront sans fil les voitures électriques en mouvement ou en stationnement. Les panneaux seront également dotés d’un éclairage LED et d’éléments chauffants pour faire fondre la neige partout où elle existe. Les voitures électriques devraient devenir courantes sur les routes du futur, car les progrès scientifiques amélioreront considérablement les performances des batteries et le potentiel d’augmentation du stockage de l’électricité. Les systèmes de navigation entièrement automatisés permettront également de peupler les routes de voitures sans conducteur, ce qui pourrait modifier la conception et l’exploitation des autoroutes et offrir des avantages en matière de sécurité et d’environnement. Les véhicules deviendront de plus en plus « intelligents », ce qui, grâce à la combinaison du véhicule connecté et de l’Internet des objets, permettra aux voitures de transmettre et de recevoir des informations sur le trafic, la vitesse, la météo et les risques potentiels pour la sécurité.

Sur la base de ce qui précède, les progrès extraordinaires des technologies de transport terrestre qui se produiront à l’avenir contribueront au développement économique et social de l’humanité.

Le transport par eau du futur

Le transport par eau désigne l’utilisation des rivières (transport fluvial), des lacs (transport lacustre) et des mers et océans (transport maritime). L’utilisation des bateaux a été l’un des premiers moyens de transport inventés par l’homme et a joué un rôle crucial pour le développement de l’humanité. Depuis l’Antiquité, les bateaux sont utilisés comme moyen de transport. Au début, les pirogues étaient utilisées pour la pêche et les activités de transport sur de courtes distances. Les canoës sont considérés comme les premiers navires utilisés pour transporter des personnes et des marchandises. Au fil du temps, des voiliers ont été inventés, qui se déplaçaient grâce à la force du vent. Le développement des navires et la découverte de nouvelles techniques de navigation ont permis à l’être humain de traverser des rivières, des mers et des océans, de parcourir de longues distances pour le transport de passagers et de marchandises, en plus de les utiliser comme armes de guerre. Depuis les canoës en bois jusqu’aux grands navires d’aujourd’hui, tels que les paquebots modernes, de nombreux progrès ont été réalisés. Après les caravelles sont venus les premiers bateaux à vapeur qui apparus il y a environ 200 ans avec des bateaux utilisant des moteurs à vapeur pour déplacer de grands navires et qui ont fait naître le rêve de ne pas dépendre des vents. Les premiers bateaux à vapeur ont permis d’accélérer les voyages maritimes et de développer le commerce extérieur. De nos jours, les moteurs diesel sont utilisés sur les navires [9].

À quoi ressemblera le transport fluvial du futur [10][11][12][13]] ? Les navires du futur bénéficieront de technologies de plus en plus sophistiquées. Les navires intelligents deviendront partie intégrante de la réalité qui nous entoure. Il est également important de souligner les avancées majeures dans un avenir proche dans l’application de l’énergie solaire et éolienne comme source auxiliaire de propulsion, avec l’installation de voiles de rotor pour générer de l’énergie propre et renouvelable, apportant plus de durabilité au secteur. On s’attend à ce que des navires propulsés par l’énergie solaire soient conçus, car nous constatons de grands progrès dans les études de cette technologie et son applicabilité à grande échelle ou même dans l’utilisation civile de l’énergie nucléaire comme source de propulsion. Les cargos seront alimentés par des batteries utilisant l’énergie solaire et éolienne.

Plus de 200 ans après que le premier bateau à vapeur a commencé à traverser l’océan, l’énergie éolienne retrouve son chemin sur les voies de navigation. Installer des « voiles de rotor » pour l’un de vos pétroliers est un moyen de réduire les coûts de carburant et les émissions de carbone. La société finlandaise à l’origine de cette technologie, Norsepower, affirme qu’il s’agit du premier système de modernisation de l’énergie éolienne sur un pétrolier. Certaines applications idéales pour l’utilisation de l’énergie éolienne et solaire comprennent les bateaux de croisière, les catamarans touristiques, les bateaux de pêche, les navires de ravitaillement offshore, les navires de recherche, les pétroliers, les cargos, les navires de patrouille et les navires à passagers. L’industrie maritime étudie les innovations qui placeront inévitablement la navigation à un niveau plus durable. On s’attend à ce que dans les 10, 20 ou 30 prochaines années, des navires alimentés par l’énergie solaire apparaissent, car de grands progrès sont réalisés dans les études sur cette technologie et son applicabilité à grande échelle. Il y aura même une utilisation civile de l’énergie nucléaire comme source de propulsion et des ports intelligents [15]. De nouvelles technologies peuvent être ajoutées aux infrastructures portuaires, basées sur le concept de l’industrie 4.0 dans l’automatisation et la numérisation des ports grâce à la robotique, au big data, à l’internet des objets (IoT), à la blockchain et à l’intelligence artificielle. Les cargos utiliseront des batteries qui seront alimentées par l’énergie solaire et éolienne grâce à des accords avec des entreprises opérant à proximité des ports où les bateaux seront amarrés. Là, ils peuvent être rechargés et faire remplacer leurs batteries [16].

Les grands navires brûlent du pétrole lourd, un carburant à haute teneur en soufre qui produit une grande quantité d’oxyde de soufre et de composés d’oxyde d’azote. Les émissions de CO2 d’un grand navire équivaut à celles de plus de 83 000 automobiles. Comme il y a 100 000 navires, ils polluent l’équivalent de 830 millions de voitures. Les experts affirment que la grande révolution du futur dans l’industrie maritime sera la propulsion des navires au GNL (Gaz Naturel Liquéfié). L’utilisation du GNL apporte non seulement une réduction des coûts pour l’armateur, principalement liés à la maintenance, mais surtout des gains environnementaux. Par rapport aux moteurs traditionnels, cela représente une réduction de 99 % des émissions de dioxyde de soufre, de 85 % de dioxyde d’azote et de 20 % de dioxyde de carbone. Les progrès réalisés dans le remplacement du pétrole lourd par le GNL dans la propulsion des navires permettront d’atteindre l’objectif de l’Organisation maritime internationale (OMI) de réduction de 40 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’ici 2050 [15].

La compagnie maritime mondiale Maersk prévoit d’installer des « voiles de rotor » pour ses pétroliers afin de réduire les coûts de carburant et les émissions de carbone. La société à l’origine de cette technologie, la société finlandaise Norsepower, affirme qu’il s’agit du premier système de modernisation de l’énergie éolienne sur un pétrolier [19]. Il convient de souligner les grands progrès réalisés dans l’applicabilité de l’énergie éolienne à la propulsion des navires. L’énergie éolienne, avec l’installation de voiles de rotor, génère une énergie propre et renouvelable comme source auxiliaire de propulsion, apportant ainsi plus de durabilité au secteur naval dans un avenir proche. De grands progrès dans la réduction de la consommation de carburant sont également réalisés grâce à des systèmes de récupération de chaleur plus efficaces, des types de peinture et même de profonds changements dans la conception des coques des navires, tous générant moins d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère. Les navires seront équipés de sonars sophistiqués pour éviter les collisions avec les icebergs ou de méthodes permettant une meilleure utilisation de l’énergie. Des navires comme ceux-ci feront un meilleur usage des courants marins et pourraient même éviter d’autres dommages à l’écosystème [14].

Outre les voitures autonomes, le tour des navires autonomes pourrait venir. Un nouveau porte-conteneurs électrique sans équipage est en cours de construction en Norvège par deux sociétés. Le cargo électrique, destiné au transport maritime à courte distance, aura dans un premier temps un équipage toujours présent, mais, en 2022, le navire est passé en fonctionnement autonome (après les autorisations nécessaires). Ce navire baptisé « Tesla des mers » sera dirigé depuis un centre de contrôle embarqué lors des premiers voyages. Il sera ensuite contrôlé de manière autonome via GPS [10]. Les collisions possibles seront évitées grâce à une combinaison de capteurs [17]. Le premier cargo entièrement électrique et autonome a été construit en Norvège en 2021. Le Yara Birkeland voyagera de Herøya à Brevik avec seulement trois centres de contrôle à distance supervisant le voyage. Yara a développé le concept pour la première fois en 2017 et prévoyait de mettre les voiles en 2020, mais la pandémie de COVID-19 a retardé le voyage. Ce n’est pas le premier navire sans équipage à s’aventurer, mais c’est le premier modèle entièrement électrique. C’est un navire avec une vitesse maximale de 13 nœuds grâce à ses deux systèmes de propulsion de 900 kW et il est important de dire que sa batterie géante de 7 MWh mettra un certain temps à se charger. Cependant, Yara en vaudra la peine pour les gains environnementaux [18].

L’une des technologies les plus durables à l’étude concerne les cargos sans citernes de ballast, qui visent à assurer la stabilité du navire en évitant le rejet de ballast d’eau salée, qui, une fois vidé, peut avoir de graves impacts environnementaux en raison de l’insertion de micro-organismes non indigènes, tels que, par exemple, les épidémies de choléra et la propagation de la moule dorée, qui provoque de graves problèmes d’encrassement des cuves, des canalisations et même des centrales hydroélectriques. Les réglementations relatives à l’évacuation de ces eaux sont devenues de plus en plus restrictives et, à une époque de changement, les navires qui utilisent des ballasts seront pénalisés. Il convient de noter que les navires utilisent actuellement de l’eau dans les ballasts pour maintenir la stabilité, la sécurité et l’efficacité opérationnelle, en particulier lorsque le navire n’est pas chargé. Le changement des cargos sans ballasts consiste à remplacer les ballasts par des « tubes longitudinaux » structurels, avec admission à la proue et déchargement à la poupe, qui créent un débit constant d’eau salée locale et favorisent la pression nécessaire pour générer la stabilité du navire. L’éventuelle mise en œuvre d’une telle technologie dans la construction navale pourrait avoir des impacts positifs sur l’environnement et sur les coûts d’exploitation du navire, puisqu’une série de mesures et d’équipements actuellement utilisés pour atténuer les risques de déversement de micro-organismes dans les navires ne seront pas nécessaires. [15].

Le transport aérien du futur

Le principal avantage du transport aérien est son agilité à réaliser des déplacements longue distance dans un laps de temps court. Le transport aérien a un haut niveau de sécurité, offre moins de risques de dommages aux marchandises transportées car la manutention est moindre que dans les autres modes, cependant, il génère un impact environnemental important, notamment une pollution atmosphérique et sonore. Le transport aérien est le deuxième moyen de transport le plus sûr au monde après l’ascenseur d’un immeuble. À quoi ressemblera le transport aérien du futur ? L’industrie aéronautique travaille au développement de plusieurs projets d’avions qui promettent de révolutionner le transport aérien dans les années et décennies à venir [20][21][22]. Il existe des avions supersoniques, électriques, autonomes et même des avions ressemblant à des drones géants pour transporter des passagers dans les centres urbains [24]. La recherche de moyens plus efficaces de voler et de transporter des passagers dans le ciel, en émettant moins de gaz polluants (voire en les éliminant) constitue le plus grand défi de l’industrie aéronautique pour les années à venir. Ce changement nécessitera une refonte technologique des avions. Il existe des études sur les avions électriques, les voitures volantes, les avions supersoniques, entre autres innovations. La solution de l’avion électrique ne fonctionne pas encore pour les gros porteurs. Ce qui peut être construit actuellement, ce sont des avions électriques d’une capacité d’un peu plus de 10 passagers et d’une autonomie d’environ 300 km. Une autre option évaluée dans ce domaine est la propulsion hybride, combinant motorisations conventionnelles et électriques. Les avions électriques ne devraient pas évoluer si rapidement qu’ils supplantent les avions à réaction à court ou moyen terme. Il existe déjà, par exemple, des avions électriques utilisés dans les écoles de pilotage et les compagnies aériennes de la catégorie sous-régionale qui envisagent d’adopter des avions électriques au cours de cette décennie. Les avions électriques utilisent des batteries électriques, le « carburant » de ce nouveau type d’avion, assez lourdes et peu efficaces, comparées à la puissance élevée des moteurs à réaction et des turbopropulseurs. Une autre source d’électricité étudiée pour les avions sont les générateurs alimentés à l’hydrogène, une technologie qui doit encore mûrir pour devenir véritablement viable. Il y aura une invasion des eVTOL (acronyme en anglais de Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft) appelés « voitures volantes » comme alternative au transport urbain.

Il y aura un retour à la fabrication d’avions de passagers supersoniques. Boom Technologies et Aerion Corporation travaillent sur la conception de nouveaux avions de passagers supersoniques [20]. Boom a la proposition qui se rapproche le plus de ce qu’était l’avion supersonique Concorde. Il s’agit d’un avion supersonique capable d’atteindre Mach 2,2 (2 355 km/h) et d’emporter 55 passagers sur des vols allant jusqu’à 8 000 km. Un prototype réduit de l’avion sera testé. Les constructeurs garantissent qu’ils résoudront les problèmes qui ont accompagné la carrière du Concorde, comme la consommation de carburant extrêmement élevée et l’effet « sonic boom », le bang sonique inconfortable généré par le passage d’un avion à vitesse supersonique. Ce sera la fin des avions quadrimoteurs qui, dans un passé pas si lointain, étaient synonymes de sécurité et de grande capacité. Aujourd’hui, ces machines éternelles que sont les géants Boeing 747 et Airbus A380 tombent en désuétude dans le transport de passagers. Ils sont trop coûteux à exploiter, nécessitent plus d’entretien et consomment d’énormes quantités de carburant. L’alternative à ces mastodontes quadrimoteurs sont de nouveaux gros-porteurs bimoteurs de pointe comme l’Airbus A350 et le Boeing 787. Boeing travaille sur le nouveau 777X, le plus gros avion bimoteur jamais conçu. Des avions plus petits, auparavant réservés aux vols intérieurs, pourront effectuer des voyages internationaux entre les continents.

Des chercheurs de l’Université technique de Delft, aux Pays-Bas, ont réussi à faire voler pour la première fois un prototype du nouvel avion commercial Flying-V, considéré comme un nouvel avion susceptible de changer l’aviation à l’avenir [21]. Avec une forme en V assez différente des avions commerciaux traditionnels, le Flying-V a une conception conçue pour avoir une consommation de carburant plus efficace. La principale différence est que la cabine passagers, le compartiment à bagages et les réservoirs de carburant sont situés sur les ailes de l’avion. Les turbines, quant à elles, sont situées au-dessus des ailes, dans une partie plus centrale de l’avion que d’habitude et proche du centre de gravité. Des modèles informatiques estiment que les changements de format permettent de réduire la consommation de carburant de 20 % à celle des avions les plus avancés du marché. L’avionneur Airbus est également partenaire du projet. Il faudra peut-être encore des années, voire des décennies, avant qu’un avion de grande taille ne soit achevé, mais les tests du premier prototype ont constitué une étape importante dans le développement du nouvel avion. Le projet prévoit un avion d’une capacité de 314 passagers. Airbus présente des modèles d’avions propulsés à l’hydrogène afin d’éviter les émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’ici 2035. Il s’agit d’un modèle en forme de « V », avec des ailes intégrées au corps de l’avion. Selon l’entreprise, le large fuselage ouvre plusieurs options pour le stockage et la distribution d’hydrogène, ainsi que pour l’aménagement de la cabine [22]. Deux des avions suivent une conception similaire à celle des avions à moteur à combustion, mais l’une des conceptions est plus révolutionnaire et montre ce que pourrait être l’avion du futur. Il s’agit d’un modèle en forme de « V », avec des ailes intégrées au corps de l’avion. Selon l’entreprise, le large fuselage ouvre plusieurs options pour le stockage et la distribution d’hydrogène, ainsi que pour l’aménagement de la cabine [25].

Depuis le début des années 1990, l’aviation commerciale a commencé à développer des technologies qui rendaient l’avion de plus en plus automatisé, réduisant ainsi progressivement l’importance du pilote dans le fonctionnement de l’avion, dans le but de réduire les accidents aériens causés par l’erreur humaine. Les constructeurs d’avions commerciaux continuent de rechercher des moyens d’améliorer les avions, de les rendre plus sûrs, plus efficaces et plus silencieux. Dans le même temps, les pilotes, les contrôleurs de l’espace aérien et les mécaniciens sont de mieux en mieux formés, et les avions sont de plus en plus inspectés pour éviter les accidents causés par une erreur humaine ou mécanique. Malgré les problèmes croissants auxquels est actuellement confrontée l’aviation en général, on estime que le 21e siècle sera celui de grands progrès pour l’aviation. On estime qu’à l’avenir, l’utilisation de pilotes sera réduite, remplacée par le contrôle à distance avec l’utilisation d’ordinateurs [23]. La recherche de moyens plus efficaces de voler et de transporter des passagers dans le ciel, en émettant moins de gaz polluants (voire en les éliminant) constitue le plus grand défi de l’industrie aéronautique pour les années à venir. Ce changement nécessitera une reformulation technologique des avions et des habitudes des passagers. Les compagnies aériennes Finnair, de Finlande, et Widerøe, de Norvège, ont récemment annoncé leur intention d’introduire des avions de passagers électriques dans leurs flottes d’ici 2026. Au Canada, où l’utilisation de petits avions commerciaux est également bien adoptée, Harbour Air teste des hydravions équipés de propulseurs électriques. Les progrès de la technologie des moteurs et les nouvelles solutions aérodynamiques ont contribué à réduire considérablement la consommation de carburant des avions commerciaux, ouvrant la possibilité d’itinéraires de plus en plus longs. Profitant de cette évolution, des avions plus petits, auparavant réservés aux vols intérieurs, se sont lancés dans les voyages internationaux entre les continents. Les jets de la série 737 MAX de Boeing ont de bons chiffres d’autonomie. L’utilisation d’avions plus petits et moins chers par rapport aux gros-porteurs ouvre une nouvelle niche sur le marché des voyages internationaux en proposant des billets moins chers [27].

​Une autre grande invention en cours est l’avion hybride, conçu pour décoller et atterrir verticalement grâce à des rotors inclinables. Ce type d’avion connaît une croissance rapide à mesure que les concepteurs et les startups réalisent qu’il s’agit de l’avenir de l’avion. VoltAero, une startup française de l’aviation, développe un avion hybride qui pourrait devenir une « Tesla » du ciel, popularisant la technologie et la rendant accessible au plus grand nombre. L’avion a été conçu pour avoir une autonomie de vol allant jusqu’à 3,5 heures, avec une portée de 1 287 km, volant jusqu’à 8 fois par jour avec une durée de vol totale de 10 heures. Construit en matériaux composites, l’avion sera proposé en trois versions : le Cassio 330, avec quatre sièges et un système de propulsion hybride d’une puissance de 330 kW, le Cassio 480, avec six sièges et une propulsion hybride de 480 kW. Le troisième modèle est le Cassio 600, doté de 10 sièges et d’une propulsion hybride de 600 kW. Sa vitesse de croisière est estimée à 370 km/h, et en mode tout électrique l’autonomie est de 200 km [27]. L’avion hybride utilisera deux moteurs d’une puissance continue de 45 kW. Un troisième moteur alimenté au biocarburant et modifié avec l’aide de l’équipe Formula E Solution F, déplace l’hélice arrière et recharge les batteries des moteurs électriques. Le système de propulsion hybride électrique est fiable. Le projet E-Fan a été le premier avion entièrement électrique doté de deux moteurs à traverser la Manche en 2015. Il a également travaillé pendant 10 ans sur le développement de piles à combustible chez General Motors. VoltAero aurait dû commencer les livraisons de son nouvel avion fin 2022, initialement dans la configuration quatre places Cassio 330 [28].

Le transport spatial du futur

Le transport spatial revêt une grande importance pour l’humanité étant donné la nécessité de promouvoir les voyages intergalactiques des êtres humains jusqu’aux confins de l’Univers et même vers des univers parallèles. Cette action est nécessaire en raison de la nécessité pour les êtres humains de quitter la planète Terre et de coloniser d’autres mondes du système solaire ou en dehors de celui-ci, et même d’accéder à des univers parallèles, pour éviter leur extinction avec l’apparition d’éventuels événements catastrophiques tels que l’éruption de volcans qui pourrait conduire à l’extinction de la vie sur Terre comme cela s’est déjà produit dans le passé, au refroidissement du noyau terrestre avec la compromission du champ magnétique terrestre qui nous protège des menaces venues de l’espace, à la collision avec la planète Terre d’astéroïdes, de comètes, planètes du système solaire et planètes orphelines, la Terre étant frappée par l’émission de rayons gamma des étoiles supernovae qui pourraient conduire à l’extinction de la vie sur Terre comme cela s’est déjà produit dans le passé, la séparation continue de la Lune de la Terre et de ses conséquences catastrophiques sur le climat de la planète, mort du Soleil, collision entre les galaxies d’Andromède et de la Voie lactée et fin de l’Univers. Le plus grand défi humain est la production de fusées capables d’atteindre des vitesses proches de la vitesse de la lumière (300 000 km/s). Avec ce niveau de vitesse, il serait possible d’atteindre la Lune en 1,3 s, le Soleil en 8min20s, Pluton en 5h21s et il faudrait 100 mille ans pour parcourir d’un bout à l’autre notre galaxie, la Voie Lactée, 163 mille ans pour atteindre la galaxie la plus proche et 93 milliards d’années pour traverser l’Univers visible. Pour cela, nous aurions donc besoin d’un vaisseau spatial qui se déplacerait à une vitesse absurdement élevée pour que l’humanité atteigne les confins de l’Univers avec une vitesse proche de la vitesse de la lumière.

Pour atteindre l’orbite terrestre à une distance de 100 km au-dessus du niveau de la mer, les fusées actuelles nécessitent des tonnes de carburant et d’oxydants pour assurer une propulsion adéquate afin d’atteindre environ 40 320 km/h pour échapper à la gravité terrestre. Ce grand volume de carburant nécessite également beaucoup d’espace sur le vaisseau spatial [28]. La fusée spatiale actuellement utilisée est un engin qui se déplace en expulsant derrière lui un flux de gaz à grande vitesse. Son objectif est d’envoyer des objets (notamment des satellites artificiels, des sondes spatiales et des rovers) et/ou des engins spatiaux et des hommes dans l’espace à des vitesses supérieures à 40 320 km/h pour vaincre l’attraction gravitationnelle de la Terre et atteindre des altitudes supérieures à 100 km au-dessus du niveau de la mer. Une fusée se compose d’une structure, d’un moteur de propulsion à réaction et d’une charge utile. La structure sert à abriter les réservoirs de carburant et de comburant (comburant) ainsi que la charge utile (équipage, passagers et équipements). Ces fusées doivent également transporter un comburant pour réagir avec le carburant. Ce mélange de gaz surchauffés est ensuite détendu dans un tube divergent, le Tube de Laval, également connu sous le nom de Bell Tube, pour diriger le gaz en expansion vers l’arrière, et ainsi propulser la fusée vers l’avant [32]. Dans les conditions actuelles, pour 2 kilogrammes de personnes, d’objets ou de charge utile, il faut 130 kilogrammes de fusée, ce qui limite le nombre d’astronautes et de matériel envoyés sur chaque vol et augmente de façon exponentielle le coût des missions. La plupart des fusées actuelles transportent une charge utile représentant 1,5 % de leur taille totale. Par charge utile, nous entendons les personnes et les objets [33].

À quoi ressemblera le futur transport spatial ? Un nouveau moteur développé par deux ingénieurs nord-américains présente cependant une alternative pour optimiser la quantité d’oxydants transportés par les fusées et réduire le coût des lancements. Il s’agit du système de propulsion à aspiration d’air Fernis, une technologie qui combine les caractéristiques d’un moteur-fusée conventionnel et d’un moteur à réaction [29]. Le Fernis aspire passivement l’air d’une extrémité, puis le comprime et le combine avec du kérosène et de l’oxygène gazeux dans une chambre de combustion. Une fois terminé, le système pourrait réduire la quantité d’oxydants transportés par une fusée jusqu’à 20 %. En théorie, cela signifie que les fusées équipées de cette technologie pourraient être plus compactes ou allouer plus d’espace dans le compartiment aux charges utiles telles que les personnes et les équipements. L’Agence spatiale européenne (ESA) a décidé d’investir dans une technologie dont on rêvait depuis le début de l’exploration spatiale, à savoir disposer d’un vaisseau spatial vaisseau spatial capable de décoller d’un aéroport, comme un avion ordinaire, devenant une fusée traditionnelle une fois qu’il dépasse les limites de l’atmosphère la plus dense et entre en orbite et revient au sol sur la même piste d’où il a décollé [30]. La société Reaction Engines, chargée de développer les premières pièces du moteur révolutionnaire qui équipera ce vaisseau spatial du futur, affirme qu’il s’agit d’un vaisseau spatial réutilisable, capable de décoller d’un aéroport conventionnel, de placer en orbite une charge utile de 20 tonnes et retour au sol sur la même piste d’où il a décollé. Cette technologie pourrait devenir une réalité dans moins d’une décennie. Une autre alternative consiste à utiliser des avions à réaction pour transporter des fusées conventionnelles sur plusieurs kilomètres dans l’atmosphère, puis à larguer les véhicules, qui achèvent par eux-mêmes la dernière étape du voyage dans l’espace [28]. Conçu par la NASA, l’avion X-43 est équipé d’un moteur-fusée pour fournir la poussée initiale du véhicule. Un moteur révolutionnaire qui peut faire progresser la technologie astronautique est le moteur Scramjet, capable d’atteindre des vitesses hypersoniques jusqu’à 15 fois la vitesse du son. La NASA a testé avec succès un moteur de ce type en 2004.

​ Une autre idée serait de construire une fusée en forme de voile qui serait accélérée par le vent solaire, lui permettant d’atteindre une plus grande vitesse et de parcourir de plus grandes distances. Le vaisseau spatial concept a été nommé Skylon, et le moteur hybride qui l’équipera s’appelle Sabre, qui est un moteur hybride sans précédent capable de « respirer » de l’air lorsqu’il est dans l’atmosphère, comme un moteur à réaction, devenant une fusée lorsqu’il atteint l’espace [34] [35] [36]. Une autre possibilité de progrès dans la technologie des moteurs-fusées est l’utilisation de la propulsion nucléaire, dans laquelle un réacteur nucléaire chauffe un gaz, produisant un jet utilisé pour produire une poussée [34] [35] [36]. Il existe d’autres types de moteurs de fusée, tels que les moteurs nucléaires thermiques, qui surchauffent un gaz à des températures élevées, en utilisant la chaleur générée par les réactions nucléaires, notamment par le processus de fission nucléaire, où le combustible nucléaire est bombardé de neutrons, conduisant à la fission. du noyau des atomes. Ce gaz est ensuite détendu dans le tube de Laval, comme dans les fusées chimiques. Ce type de fusée a été développé et testé aux États-Unis dans les années 1960, mais n’a jamais été utilisé. Les gaz expulsés par ce type de fusée peuvent être radioactifs, ce qui rend déconseillé leur utilisation à l’intérieur de l’atmosphère terrestre, mais ils peuvent être utilisés à l’extérieur de celle-ci. Ce type de fusée a l’avantage de permettre des rendements bien supérieurs à ceux des fusées chimiques classiques, car ils permettent d’accélérer les gaz d’échappement à des vitesses beaucoup plus élevées. Actuellement, c’est la Russie qui se démarque dans le développement de moteurs nucléaires thermiques [34] [35] [36].

Le plus grand défi scientifique et technologique de l’humanité est représenté par la nécessité d’entreprendre des voyages spatiaux et interstellaires. Pour cela, nous aurions besoin d’un vaisseau spatial qui se déplace à une vitesse absurdement élevée – quelque chose de proche de la vitesse de la lumière (300 000 km/s). En plus de ne pas disposer d’une technologie de fusée qui développe des vitesses proches de celle de la lumière, le voyage interstellaire serait irréalisable pour les êtres humains même si nous avions ces fusées car avec des vitesses proches de celle de la lumière il y aurait des conséquences négatives sur la vie de l’équipage et des passagers. et pour les gens eux-mêmes. Pour que l’être humain puisse réaliser des missions spatiales de longue distance, il est nécessaire de trouver des formes plus avancées de propulsion de fusées pour atteindre des distances de centaines ou de milliers d’années-lumière, étant donné que, selon les scientifiques, les fusées chimiques actuelles sont limitées par la vitesse maximale de gaz d’échappement. D’autres alternatives proposées par les scientifiques consisteraient à utiliser la propulsion nucléaire thermique, un moteur solaire/ionique comme nouvelle forme de propulsion de fusée, ainsi que la création d’un réacteur à fusion dans lequel une fusée extrairait l’hydrogène de l’espace interstellaire et le liquéfierait. La NASA souhaite tester des fusées à propulsion nucléaire d’ici 2027. La technologie avancée de propulsion nucléaire thermique permettra au vaisseau spatial d’être plus rapide, d’avoir des temps de trajet plus courts et permettra également une livraison de fret plus agile vers une nouvelle base lunaire et des missions robotiques encore plus loin. Grâce à cette technologie, les astronautes pourront voyager vers et depuis l’espace lointain plus rapidement que jamais. La nouvelle propulsion a le potentiel de permettre des missions habitées vers Mars. Selon la NASA, une fusée thermique à propulsion nucléaire peut être trois à quatre fois plus efficace que les fusées conventionnelles et réduire le temps de trajet jusqu’à la planète rouge, soit de 8 mois à 2 mois [33]. Le moteur ionique a emmené un navire aux confins du système solaire. La sonde est la première mission d’exploration spatiale à utiliser un moteur ionique au lieu de propulseurs conventionnels, alimentés par des réactions chimiques. Le système de propulsion ionique sera adopté dans la prochaine génération de vaisseaux spatiaux de la NASA. Le propulseur utilise l’énergie électrique pour créer des particules de carburant chargées magnétiquement, généralement sous forme de gaz xénon, accélérant ces particules à des vitesses très élevées. Qu’il s’agisse de l’énergie du Soleil ou de l’atome, elle serait utilisée pour ioniser (ou charger positivement) un gaz inerte comme le xénon ou le krypton. Les ions accélérés seraient expulsés du propulseur, propulsant le navire vers l’avant. Si au début le vaisseau spatial avançait lentement, avec le temps l’accélération serait progressive et inexorable, atteignant une vitesse proche de celle de la lumière, permettant à un être humain d’atteindre des étoiles proches, comme Alpha Centauri, à 4,3 années-lumière [33] .

​ La propulsion Bussard est une autre méthode de propulsion pour les engins spatiaux qui pourrait accélérer jusqu’à une vitesse proche de la vitesse de la lumière et constituerait un type d’engin spatial très efficace. La source de combustible la plus évidente proposée par Bussard est la fusion de l’hydrogène, car l’hydrogène est considéré comme le composant le plus courant du gaz interstellaire. Un champ électromagnétique pourrait attirer les ions positifs du milieu interstellaire et les forcer à pénétrer dans le statoréacteur. Un voyage spatial ultra-rapide proche de la vitesse de la lumière serait cependant mortel pour l’homme, selon une publication d’Edelstein et Edelstein dans Natural Science qui rapporte que l’hydrogène présent dans tout avion capable de voyager à la vitesse de la lumière l’empêcherait également de faire le voyage à cette vitesse car, à mesure que la vitesse du navire se rapprochait de celle de la lumière, l’hydrogène H interstellaire se transformerait en un rayonnement intense qui tuerait rapidement les passagers et détruirait les instruments électroniques. De plus, la perte d’énergie due aux rayonnements ionisants traversant l’extérieur du navire représenterait une augmentation croissante de la chaleur qui nécessiterait d’importantes réserves d’énergie pour refroidir le navire. Même s’il était possible de créer un vaisseau capable de se déplacer à des vitesses proches de celle de la lumière, il ne serait pas capable de transporter des personnes. Il existe une limite de vitesse naturelle imposée par des niveaux sûrs de rayonnement dû à l’hydrogène, ce qui signifie que les humains ne peuvent pas voyager à plus de la moitié de la vitesse de la lumière, à moins qu’ils ne souhaitent une mort rapide et immédiate [33].

La théorie de la relativité générale impose de sévères restrictions aux voyages interstellaires. L’une d’elles est la plus évidente : rien ne peut être accéléré à des vitesses supérieures à celle de la lumière, qui est d’environ 300 000 km/s. Même si nous pouvions voyager à cette vitesse, il nous faudrait encore beaucoup de temps pour atteindre d’autres étoiles et leurs systèmes planétaires respectifs. La théorie de la relativité générale a ouvert de nouveaux domaines scientifiques et a permis à des idées telles que la création d’un moteur de distorsion de voyager vers n’importe quel coin de l’Univers. Le concept d’espace de distorsion n’est pas nouveau. Il s’agit d’un type de moteur qui permet au vaisseau spatial de se déplacer à des vitesses supérieures à la vitesse de la lumière. Il s’agit d’une technologie qui permettrait de créer une « bulle » dans l’espace-temps. Cette bulle pourrait créer une sorte de pont entre deux points de l’espace. Les voyages vers des destinations situées à des années-lumière de la Terre resteront toujours hors de notre portée, mais la technologie de distorsion spatiale, si elle existe un jour, pourrait être la solution aux voyages interstellaires [31].

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* Fernando Alcoforado, 84, a reçoit la Médaille du Mérite en Ingénierie du Système CONFEA / CREA, membre de l’Académie de l’Education de Bahia, de la SBPC – Société Brésilienne pour le Progrès des Sciences et l’IPB – Institut Polytechnique de Bahia, ingénieur de l’École Polytechnique UFBA et docteur en Planification du Territoire et Développement Régional de l’Université de Barcelone, professeur d’Université (Ingénierie, Économie et Administration) et consultant dans les domaines de la planification stratégique, de la planification d’entreprise, planification du territoire et urbanisme, systèmes énergétiques, a été Conseiller du Vice-Président Ingénierie et Technologie chez LIGHT S.A. Entreprise de distribution d’énergie électrique de Rio de Janeiro, coordinatrice de la planification stratégique du CEPED – Centre de recherche et de développement de Bahia, sous-secrétaire à l’énergie de l’État de Bahia, secrétaire à la  planification de Salvador, il est l’auteur de ouvrages Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The  Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), est l’auteur d’un chapitre du livre Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Floride, États-Unis, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) et A revolução da educação necessária ao  Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023).

Fernando Alcoforado*

Abstract: This article aims to present the major innovations that are expected to occur in land transport (urban, road and rail), waterway transport, air transport and space transport in the future.

Keywords: The future of transport, land transport (urban, road and rail) of the future, water transport of the future, air transport of the future, space transport of the future.

Introduction

This article aims to present the major innovations that are expected to occur in land transport (urban, road and rail), waterway transport, air transport and space transport in the future. The evolution of means of transport was essential for the development of humanity. Means of transport have been used throughout history, whether to acquire food, carry out construction, cross rivers and oceans, wage war, transport people and goods and conquer air and outer space, etc. As humanity evolved, means of transportation changed. Land transport, as well as water transport, has existed since the beginning of humanity. The domestication of animals introduced a new way of placing the weight of land transport on stronger animals, allowing heavier loads to be transported, with greater speed and shorter journey times. Horses, camels, oxen or even human beings were used as means of land transport on dirt roads. With the invention of the wheel, the means of transport were no longer just through animals but also carts, pulled by oxen or horses, which intensified the development of means of transport. From that moment on, part of humanity acquired the ability to transport more goods and people quickly. Paved roads were built by many ancient civilizations. To this day, the wheel has fundamental importance in our daily lives. There are wheels on cars, planes, motorcycles, skateboards, roller skates, carts, bicycles, etc. It was only after the 1st Industrial Revolution (18th century), that the quantity and efficiency of means of transport expanded, with the advancement of science and technology. From the invention of the steam engine, the locomotive was developed, which enabled the development of the railway, which quickly spread throughout industrialized nations and the rest of the world.

The only mode of transporting cargo in foreign trade in the 15th and 16th centuries was water transport. The Sagres School in Portugal developed, in the 15th century, the construction technology for caravels as well as the seamanship and navigation techniques, necessary for the great voyages of discovery. This type of navigation was used primarily by humanity, until the emergence of steam navigation. The spread of the invention of the steam engine led to the dream of moving large vessels without depending on the winds. It was from the 19th century onwards that steam vessels appeared and later with engines powered by petroleum derivatives. Ships are increasingly being produced to transport cargo in large volumes and specifically for each type of cargo, in addition to using them as weapons of war. With the development of steam ships, the subway that began operating in London in 1863 and the inventions of the bicycle between 1817 and 1880, the airship in 1852, the elevator in 1853, the electric tram in 1881, the automobile in 1885, the motorcycle in 1885, trucks in 1895, airplane in 1905, helicopter in 1907, space rocket in 1925, drone in 1977, among other inventions, there was a true explosion of possibilities in the field of transport. All these means of transport include means intended for transporting people or cargo. Means of transport can be classified as land, waterway, air and space.

Land means of transport travel on city streets, dirt roads, paved highways and railways using trains, electric trams, urban elevators, inclined planes, cable cars, buses, subways, automobiles, trucks, bicycles and motorcycles. Waterways are those that move on water, using canoes, ferries, boats, ships, submarines and aircraft carriers. They are classified as maritime (sea), fluvial (river) and lacustrine (lake). Aerial means of transport are those that move in the air with planes, helicopters, balloons, airships and drones. Space means of transport are those that move through outer space using rockets and/or spacecraft to move astronauts, artificial satellites, space probes, robots, rovers or any other type of equipment for space exploration. Means of transport require appropriate infrastructure and vehicles. By infrastructure we mean the urban transport network, road network, railway network, waterway network, air network and space network that are used, as well as terminals such as bus stations, railway stations, metro stations, port terminals, airports, centers of rocket launches and all types of similar equipment. Vehicles, such as cars, bicycles, trains and planes, among other vehicles, or people or animals themselves when traveling on foot, generally travel through any network. It can be said that means of transport have enabled human beings to occupy all spaces on planet Earth and have contributed decisively to promoting its economic and social development.

What will land, waterway, air and space transportation of the future be like? The answers to this question are presented in the topics presented below.

Land transport (urban, road and rail) of the future

What will the land transport of the future be like [2][3][6][7][8]? In urban centers, local governments will encourage the use of means of transport that follow the trend of smart and sustainable cities, interconnected by access roads controlled by various devices that use artificial intelligence and the internet of things (IOT) to maintain agile and safe traffic. The prioritized means of transport will be subways, trains, bicycles, scooters, walking and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT’s). Transport systems will feature technologies such as robotics, internet of things (IOT), applications and more modern collection systems. ITS (Intelligent transportation Systems) solutions will monitor in real time everything that happens in the bus system and will create an interface with other modes of urban mobility. The main function of conventional bus lines will be to connect the most distant neighborhoods in conjunction with the metro lines.

Drones and flying vehicles will fly over city streets, ensuring greater safety, mobility and speed in the delivery of products and people, respectively [7]. The streets will have extensive cycle paths, in addition to numerous exclusive lanes for BRTs powered by hydrogen, which is considered by the International Energy Agency (AIE) as the fuel of the future, whose biggest challenge is the production of clean hydrogen on a large scale. Widely used, subways and trains will be essential in metropolises. Cities in metropolitan regions will no longer be isolated from capitals, taking into account that high-speed railway lines will cut through several municipalities [7]. Real-time monitoring will allow control of traffic light intervals, according to traffic flow, to avoid congestion. The information will be displayed at train and bus stops, public parking lots and displays in various locations. People will be able to plan, even at home, the use of different modes of transport, thanks to the evolution of applications, including the famous Global Positioning System (GPS) [7].

The metro will be the main means of public transport in large cities, which will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One of the technologies used by this means of transport will be Hyperloop, which will allow many people to move over a long distance in a short space of time. Trains will magnetically levitate in airless tubes, reaching speeds of 240 miles/hour up to 720 miles/hour, and will connect different neighborhoods in metropolises, often supplying cities in metropolitan regions. Comfortable trains with fast speeds will be common and will avoid motor vehicle congestion on highways. Most railway lines in the world’s main capitals will be powered by renewable energies such as solar photovoltaics and hydrogen [1][7].

The driverless system, that is, without a driver, will be fully operational [7]. Subways, trains and buses will be driven remotely using software, providing greater safety, speed and comfort for passengers, as it will be possible to control the speed, the interval between them, and even the opening time of the doors. Using the driverless system, it will be possible for the subway to reduce the intervals between one train and another and increase passenger capacity. Furthermore, perfect synchronization of trains will avoid sudden stops and contribute to reducing energy consumption. Trains will be powered by solar energy and hydrogen with the abandonment of diesel from the railway network [7]. Transport companies and suppliers will use resources such as artificial intelligence, internet of things, network speed and big data with the aim of enabling more effective payment systems and the integration of modalities so that subways and buses can be used more widely by the population [ 7].

Trains that operate at speeds of more than 200 kilometers per hour can be considered high-speed [4][9]. The first high-speed rail system began operations in Japan in 1964 and was known as the bullet train. Twenty-seven countries around the world currently have high-speed trains, with trains that can reach more than 400 km/h. The continents of Asia and Europe have the largest fast railway networks that transport passengers and cargo. In South Korea, there are a total of 1,104.5 km of tracks for fast trains, with a further 425 km expected soon. The maximum speed for trains in regular service is currently 305 km/h. Turkey is 621 km long, the expansion of which will take the country to more than 2,000 km of tracks for fast services with trains operating at speeds of up to 250 km/h or 300 km/h. Italy is 1,467 km long and trains are operated at a maximum speed of 300 km/h. In the United Kingdom, high-speed rail has 1,527 km of track with four railway lines operating at maximum speeds of 200 km/h. In Sweden, many trains operate at 200 km/h with a total of 1,706 km of track for fast services. Japan has 2,764 km of fast train services that reach a maximum speed of 320 km/h. France has 2,647 km of tracks in addition to 670 km under construction. Germany has 3,500 km of lines, both operational and under construction, with trains reaching speeds of up to 300 km/h. Spain has 3,240 km of tracks and trains that reach speeds of up to 310 km/h. China has 35,000 km of high-speed rail.

On railway lines, preventive maintenance will be carried out by autonomous drones, there will be driverless trains traveling safely at high speeds, freight will be automatically sent to its destination and smart technology will be designed to improve the passenger experience and enable ticketless travel. There will be the improvement and dissemination of automatic steering systems on trains, which will further optimize travel times and may put an end to delays. Smart robots will build new railway infrastructure and modernize old ones. Technological advances will also be vital to improving the user experience, providing accurate real-time route information and enabling uninterrupted access to work and entertainment while traveling via 5G wireless internet networks. The exceptionally quiet and efficient magnetic levitation technology employed in the fully automated Transport System will also allow the system to serve as a space-saving and low greenhouse gas emission alternative. The system will operate at speeds of up to 150 km per hour, being able to move up to 180 containers/hour individually and completely electrically [5].

One of the problems of urban transport systems is the lack of coordination between different modes of transport. People want to know how to get from A to B as easily as possible, whether on foot, bike, motorbike, subway, bus, train, Uber or taxi – or a mix of some or all of them. In the past, we didn’t have enough data. Now we have, and we will be able to count on our connected smartphones at all times to help us visualize it all. The application would inform you the fastest way to reach your destination by combining all integrated means of transport, be it an electric car, subway, bus or taxi. There will be a proliferation of electric vehicles. Shared, fully electric and progressively autonomous flying vehicles, with the ability to take off and land vertically, will cut through the skies of cities. To this end, the tops of buildings belonging to partner companies in air transport services will function as take-off, landing and fueling points [7]. People will increasingly use shared and/or private, fully sustainable electric scooters as an alternative to the subway or bus [7].

The automobile of the future will be increasingly autonomous, more electric, more connected and shared. Electric and autonomous vehicles appear to be the main drivers of the crucial transformation that will take place in city transport [3]. Autonomous vehicles, therefore, already exist and this is not a futuristic project [8]. The idea is to strengthen public transport. So, in a smart city, people can get rid of their cars, which pose a threat to the health of the population by congesting our cities and compromising air quality with the use of fossil fuels. In many countries, buses and other driverless transport systems are being tested as autonomous vehicles. Public or private autonomous vehicles will connect us from our home to a transport hub. There are already driverless buses in the canton of Schaffhausen, Switzerland, which circulate around the city of Neuhausen am Rheinfall picking up and dropping off passengers while navigating traffic [8]. An employee can take control of the vehicle from a remote control, in case of any unforeseen circumstances.

In the future, highways will not be as unsafe as they are today. Vehicles will not have drivers and will not emit polluting waste into the air. Highways will be controlled by sophisticated technologies that communicate with cars, extract energy from the Sun, integrate road infrastructure and GPS systems [6]. The highways of the future are already being designed. The highways of the future will feature advanced solar panels that will generate clean, renewable energy and wirelessly charge moving or parked electric cars. The panels will also have LED lighting and heating elements to melt snow wherever it exists. Electric cars are expected to become common on the roads of the future, as scientific developments will greatly improve the performance of batteries and the potential for increased electricity storage. Fully automated navigation systems will also allow roads to become populated with driverless cars which could change the design and operation of highways and provide safety and environmental benefits. Vehicles will become increasingly “smart”, which, with a combination of the connected vehicle and the Internet of Things, will enable cars to transmit and receive information about traffic, speed, weather and potential safety risks .

Based on the above, the extraordinary advances in land transport technologies that will occur in the future will contribute to the economic and social development of humanity.

The water transport of the future

Water transport means the use of rivers (river transport), lakes (lacustrine transport) and seas and oceans (maritime transport). The use of boats was one of the first means of transportation invented by man and was crucial for the development of humanity. Since ancient times, boats have been used as a means of transport. In the beginning, canoes were used for fishing and short-distance transport activities. Canoes are considered the first vessels used to transport people and cargo. Over time, sail boats were invented, which moved driven by the force of the wind. The development of vessels and the discovery of new navigation techniques made it possible for human beings to cross rivers, seas and oceans, overcoming long distances in the transport of passengers and cargo, in addition to using them as weapons of war. From wooden canoes to today’s large vessels, such as modern ocean liners, there has been much progress. After the caravels came the first steam ships, which appeared around 200 years ago with vessels using steam engines to move large ships and gave rise to the dream of not depending on the winds. The first steam vessels allowed sea travel to become faster and foreign trade to be expanded. Modernly, diesel engines are used on ships [9].

What will water transport of the future be like [10][11][12][13]]?  Ships of the future will be benefited from increasingly sophisticated technologies. Smart ships will become an integral part of the reality that surrounds us. It is also important to highlight the major advances in the near future in the application of solar and wind energy as an auxiliary source of propulsion, with the installation of rotor sails to generate clean and renewable energy, bringing more sustainability to the sector. There is an expectation that vessels powered by solar energy will be designed, as we see a great advance in the studies of this technology and its applicability on a large scale or even the civil use of nuclear energy as a source of propulsion. The cargo ships will be powered by batteries that use solar and wind energy.

More than 200 years after the first steamship began crossing the ocean, wind energy finds its way back into shipping lanes. Installing “rotor sails” for one of your tankers is one way to reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions. The company behind the technology, Finnish Norsepower, says this is the first wind energy retrofit system on an oil tanker. Some ideal applications for using wind and solar energy include cruise boats, tourist catamarans, fishing vessels, offshore supply ships, research vessels, oil tankers, cargo ships, patrol ships, and passenger ships. The shipping industry has been studying innovations that will inevitably place navigation on a more sustainable level. It is expected that in the next 10, 20 or 30 years, vessels powered by solar energy will appear, as there is great progress in the studies of this technology and its applicability on a large scale. There will even be the civil use of nuclear energy as a source of propulsion and smart ports [15]. New technologies can be added to port infrastructures, based on the concept of industry 4.0 in the automation and digitalization of ports through robotics, big data, internet of things (IoT), blockchain and artificial intelligence. The cargo ships will use batteries that will be powered by solar and wind energy through agreements with companies that operate near the ports where the boats will be docked. There they can be recharged and have their batteries replaced [16].

Large ships burn heavy oil, a high-sulfur fuel that produces a large amount of sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxide compounds. The CO2 emission of a large ship is equivalent to that of more than 83 thousand automobiles. Since there are 100,000 ships,  they pollute the equivalent of 830 million cars. Experts say that the great revolution of the future in the shipping industry will be the propulsion of ships using LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). The use of LNG provides not only a reduction in costs for the shipowner, mainly related to maintenance, but mainly environmental gains. Compared to traditional engines, it represents a 99% reduction in the emission of sulfur dioxide, 85% of nitrogen dioxide and 20% of carbon dioxide. Advances in replacing heavy oil with LNG in ship propulsion will make it possible to achieve the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) target of a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 [15].

The global shipping company Maersk plans to install “rotor sails” for its tankers as a way to reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions. The company behind the technology, Finnish Norsepower, says this is the first wind energy retrofit system on a tanker [19]. It is worth highlighting the great advances in the applicability of wind energy in ship propulsion. Wind energy, with the installation of rotor sails, generates clean and renewable energy as an auxiliary source of propulsion, bringing more sustainability to the naval sector in the near future. Great advances in reducing fuel consumption are also achieved thanks to more efficient heat recovery systems, types of paint, and even profound changes in the design of ship hulls, all generating fewer greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Ships will have sophisticated sonar to prevent collisions with icebergs or methods that provide better use of energy. Ships like these will make better use of sea currents and may even prevent further damage to the ecosystem [14].

In addition to autonomous cars, the turn of autonomous ships may come. A new electric, crewless container ship is being built in Norway by two companies. The electric cargo ship, for short sea transport, will initially have a crew still present, but, in 2022, the ship switched to autonomous operation (after the necessary authorizations). This ship called “Tesla of the seas” will be directed from an onboard control center during the first voyages. It will then be controlled autonomously via GPS [10]. Possible collisions will be avoided using a combination of sensors [17]. The first fully electric, autonomous cargo ship was built in Norway in 2021. The Yara Birkeland traveled from Herøya to Brevik with just three remote control centers overseeing the journey. Yara first developed the concept in 2017 and planned to set sail in 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic delayed the voyage. It’s not the first crewless ship of any kind to venture out, but it is the first all-electric model. She is a vessel with a maximum speed of 13 knots from her two 900 kW propulsion systems and it is important to say that her giant 7 MWh battery will take some time to charge. However, Yara will be worth it for the environmental gains [18].

One of the most sustainable technologies under study is cargo ships without ballast tanks, which aim to provide ship stability by avoiding the discharge of salt water ballast, which when emptied can cause serious environmental impacts due to the insertion of non-native microorganisms, such as , for example, cholera outbreaks and the spread of the golden mussel, which causes serious fouling problems in vessels, pipes and even hydroelectric plants. Regulations for the disposal of such waters have become increasingly restrictive and, in a time of change, vessels that use ballast tanks will be penalized. It should be noted that ships currently use water in ballast tanks to maintain stability, safety and operational efficiency, especially when the ship is not loaded. The change in freighters without ballast tanks consists of replacing the ballast tanks with structural longitudinal “tubes”, with admission at the bow and discharge at the stern, which create a constant flow of local salt water and promote the pressure necessary to generate stability of the ship, according to the cargo loaded. The eventual implementation of such technology in shipbuilding could bring positive impacts to the environment and the operational cost of the vessel, since a series of measures and equipment that are currently used to mitigate the risks of dumping microorganisms in ships will not be necessary in other areas [15].

Air transport of the future

The main advantage of air transport is its agility in carrying out long-distance trips in a short period of time. Air transport has a high level of safety, offers less risk of damage to transported goods because handling is less than in other modes, however, it generates a large environmental impact, particularly atmospheric and noise pollution. Air transport is the second safest form of transport in the world after a building elevator. What will future air transport look like? The aeronautical industry is working on the development of several aircraft projects that promise to revolutionize air transport in the coming years and decades [20][21][22]. There are supersonic, electric, autonomous planes and even aircraft that look like a giant drone for transporting passengers in urban centers [24]. The search for more efficient ways of flying and transporting passengers through the skies, emitting fewer polluting gases (or even eliminating them) is the aviation industry’s biggest challenge for the coming years. This change will require a technological redesign of the planes. There are studies on electric planes, flying cars, supersonic planes, among other innovations. The electric plane solution does not yet work for large aircraft. What can be built, at the moment, are electric planes with a capacity of just over 10 passengers and a flight range of around 300 km. Another option evaluated in this area is hybrid propulsion, combining conventional and electric engines. Electric planes should not evolve so quickly that they displace jets in the short or medium term. There are already, for example, electric planes used in flight schools and airlines in the sub-regional category that are considering adopting electric aircraft this decade. Electric planes use electric batteries, the “fuel” of this new type of plane, which are quite heavy and inefficient, compared to the high power of jet and turboprop engines. Another electrical source being studied for planes are hydrogen-powered generators, a technology that still needs to mature until it becomes truly viable. There will be an invasion of eVTOLs (acronym in English for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft) called “flying cars” as an alternative for urban transport.

There will be a return to manufacturing supersonic passenger planes. Boom Technologies and Aerion Corporation are working on designs for new supersonic passenger planes [20]. Boom has the proposal that comes closest to what the Concorde supersonic plane was. It is a supersonic jet capable of reaching Mach 2.2 (2,355 km/h) and carrying 55 passengers on flights of up to 8,000 km. A scaled-down prototype of the aircraft will be tested. The manufacturers guarantee that they will solve the problems that accompanied the Concorde’s career, such as the extremely high fuel consumption and the “sonic boom” effect, the uncomfortable sonic boom generated by the passage of a plane at supersonic speed. There will be an end to four-engine planes which, in the not too distant past, were synonymous with safety and great capacity. Nowadays, these eternal machines in the form of the giant Boeing 747 and Airbus A380 are falling into disuse in passenger transport. They are too expensive to operate, require more maintenance and consume enormous amounts of fuel. The alternative to these four-engine behemoths are new state-of-the-art twin-engine widebodies like the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787. Boeing is working on the new 777X, the largest twin-engine plane ever. Smaller jets, previously restricted to domestic flights, will be able to carry out international trips between continents.

Researchers at the Technical University of Delft, in the Netherlands, managed to fly a prototype of the new Flying-V commercial aircraft for the first time, which is seen as a new aircraft that could change aviation in the future [21]. With a V-shape that is quite different from traditional commercial aircraft, the Flying-V has a design designed to have more efficient fuel consumption. The main difference is that the passenger cabin, cargo compartment and fuel tanks are located on the plane’s wings. The turbines, in turn, are located above the wings, located in a more central part of the aircraft than usual and close to the center of gravity. Computer models estimated that the changes in format allow fuel consumption to be 20% lower than that of the most advanced planes on the market. Aircraft manufacturer Airbus is also a partner in the project. It may still be years or decades before a full-size aircraft is complete, but testing the first prototype was an important step in the development of the new aircraft. The project envisages a plane with capacity for 314 passengers. Airbus presents designs for hydrogen-powered aircraft to avoid greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. It is a ‘V’-shaped model, with wings integrated into the body of the plane. According to the company, the wide fuselage opens up several options for hydrogen storage and distribution, as well as for the cabin layout [22]. Two of the aircraft follow a design similar to combustion engine aircraft, but one of the designs is more revolutionary and shows what the aircraft of the future could be. It is a ‘V’ shaped model, with wings integrated into the body of the plane. According to the company, the wide fuselage opens up several options for hydrogen storage and distribution, as well as for the cabin layout [25].

Since the beginning of the 1990s, commercial aviation began to develop technologies that made the plane increasingly automated, thus gradually reducing the importance of the pilot in operating the aircraft, aiming to reduce air accidents caused by human error. Commercial aircraft manufacturers continue to research ways to improve planes, making them safer, more efficient and quieter. At the same time, pilots, airspace controllers and mechanics have become increasingly better trained, and aircraft are increasingly inspected to avoid accidents caused by human or mechanical error. Despite the growing problems currently faced by aviation in general, it is believed that the 21st century will be a century of great advances for aviation. It is estimated that in the future the use of pilots will be reduced, being replaced by remote control with the use of computers [24]. The search for more efficient ways of flying and transporting passengers through the skies, emitting fewer polluting gases (or even eliminating them) is the aviation industry’s biggest challenge for the coming years. This change will require a technological reformulation of planes and passenger habits. Airlines Finnair, from Finland, and Widerøe, from Norway, recently announced plans to introduce electric passenger planes into their fleets by 2026. In Canada, where the use of small commercial planes is also well adopted, Harbor Air is testing seaplanes adapted with electric thrusters. Advances in engine technologies and new aerodynamic solutions have contributed to significantly reducing fuel consumption of commercial planes, opening up the possibility of increasingly longer routes. Taking advantage of this evolution, smaller planes, previously restricted to domestic flights, embarked on international travel between continents. Boeing’s 737 MAX series jets have good autonomy numbers. The use of small and less expensive planes compared to widebodies opens a new niche in the international travel market with the offer of cheaper tickets [28].

Another great invention underway is the hybrid aircraft that is designed to take off and land vertically with tilt rotors. This type of aircraft is growing rapidly as designers and startups realize that this is the future of aircraft. VoltAero, a French aviation startup, is developing a hybrid plane that could become a “Tesla” of the skies, popularizing the technology and making it available to more people. The aircraft was designed to have a flight autonomy of up to 3.5 hours, with a range of 1,287 km, flying up to 8 times a day with a total flight time of 10 hours. Built with composite materials, the aircraft will be offered in three versions: the Cassio 330, with four seats and a hybrid propulsion system with a power of 330 kW, the Cassio 480, with six seats and a hybrid propulsion with 480 kW. The third model is the Cassio 600, with 10 seats and 600 kW hybrid propulsion. Its cruising speed is estimated at 370 km/h, and in all-electric mode the autonomy is 200 km [28]. The hybrid aircraft will use two engines with a continuous power of 45 kW. A third engine powered by biofuel and modified with the help of the Formula E Solution F team, moves the rear propeller and recharges the batteries of the electric motors. The electric hybrid propulsion system is reliable. The E-Fan project was the first fully electric plane with two engines to cross the English Channel in 2015. In addition, he worked for 10 years on the development of fuel cells at General Motors. VoltAero should have started deliveries of its new aircraft at the end of 2022, initially in the four-seat Cassio 330 configuration [29].

The space transport of the future

Space transport is of great importance for humanity given the need to promote intergalactic travel by human beings to the farthest reaches of the Universe and even to parallel universes. This action is necessary due to the need for human beings to leave planet Earth and colonize other worlds in the solar system or outside it, and even access parallel universes, to avoid their extinction with the occurrence of possible catastrophic events such as the eruption of volcanoes that could lead to the extinction of life on Earth as has already occurred in the past, the cooling of the Earth’s core with the compromise of the Earth’s magnetic field that protects us from threats from space, the collision with planet Earth of asteroids, comets, planets of the solar system and orphan planets, the Earth being hit by the emission of gamma rays from supernova stars that could lead to the extinction of life on Earth as has already occurred in the past, the continued distancing of the Moon from Earth and its catastrophic consequences on the planet’s climate , the death of the Sun, the collision between the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies and the end of the Universe. The biggest human challenge is the production of rockets that are capable of reaching speeds close to the speed of light (300,000 km/s). With this level of speed, it would be possible to reach the Moon in 1.3 s, the Sun in 8min20s, Pluto in 5h21s and it would take 100 thousand years to go from end to end in our Milky Way galaxy, 163 thousand years to go to the galaxy closest and 93 billion years to cross the visible Universe. For this purpose, we would therefore need a spacecraft that travels at an absurdly high speed for humanity to reach the farthest reaches of the Universe – something close to the speed of light.

To reach Earth’s orbit at a distance of 100 km above sea level, current rockets require tons of fuel and oxidants to ensure adequate propulsion to reach around 40,320 km/h to escape Earth’s gravity. This large volume of fuel also demands a lot of space on the spacecraft [28]. The space rocket currently used is a machine that moves by expelling a flow of gas behind it at high speed. Its objective is to send objects (especially artificial satellites, space probes and rovers) and/or spacecraft and men into outer space at speeds exceeding 40,320 km/h to overcome the Earth’s gravitational attraction and reach altitudes exceeding 100 km above sea level. A rocket consists of a structure, a reaction propulsion engine and a payload. The structure serves to house the fuel and oxidizer tanks and the payload (crew, passengers and equipment). These rockets also need to carry an oxidizer to react with the fuel. This mixture of superheated gases is then expanded in a divergent tube, the Laval Tube, also known as the Bell Tube, to direct the expanding gas backwards, and thus propel the rocket forward [32]. Under current conditions, for every 2 kilograms of people and objects or payload, 130 kilograms of rocket are needed, which restricts the number of astronauts and material sent on each flight and exponentially increases the cost of missions. Most current rockets carry a payload of 1.5% of their total size. By payload we mean people and objects [33].

What will future space transportation look like? A new engine being developed by two North American engineers, however, presents an alternative to optimize the amount of oxidants transported by rockets and reduce the cost of launches. This is the Fernis air aspiration propulsion system, a technology that combines characteristics of a conventional rocket engine and a jet engine [29]. The Fernis passively draws in air from one end and then compresses it and combines it with kerosene and some oxygen gas in a combustion chamber. When complete, the system could reduce the amount of oxidants carried by a rocket by up to 20%. In theory, this means that rockets equipped with this technology could be more compact or allocate more compartment space to payloads such as people and equipment. The European Space Agency (ESA) decided to invest in a technology that has been dreamed of since the beginning of space exploration, that is, having a spacecraft capable of taking off from an airport, becoming a traditional rocket that surpasses the limits of the densest atmosphere and enters orbit and returns to the ground on the same runway from which it took off [30]. The company Reaction Engines, hired to develop the first parts of the revolutionary engine that will equip this spacecraft of the future, claims that it is a reusable spacecraft, capable of taking off from a conventional airport, placing a 20-ton payload into orbit and returning to the ground at same runway from which it took off. This technology could become a reality in less than a decade. Another alternative is to use jet planes to transport conventional rockets several kilometers into the atmosphere and then release the vehicles, which complete the final stage of the journey into space on their own [29]. Designed by NASA, the X-43 aircraft features a rocket engine to provide initial thrust for the vehicle. A revolutionary engine that can advance astronautical technology is the Scramjet engine, which is capable of reaching hypersonic speeds of up to 15 times the speed of sound. NASA successfully tested an engine of this type in 2004.

Another idea is to build a sail-shaped rocket that would be accelerated by the solar wind, allowing it to reach greater speed and travel greater distances. The concept spacecraft was named Skylon, and the hybrid engine that will equip it is called Saber, which is an unprecedented hybrid engine capable of “breathing” air while in the atmosphere, like a jet engine, becoming a rocket when reaches space [34] [35] [36]. Another possibility for advancement in rocket engine technology is the use of nuclear propulsion, in which a nuclear reactor heats a gas, producing a jet that is used to produce thrust [34] [35] [36]. There are other types of rocket engines, such as thermal nuclear engines, which superheat a gas to high temperatures, using the heat generated by nuclear reactions, especially through the process of nuclear fission, where nuclear fuel is bombarded with neutrons, leading to the fission of the nucleus of atoms. This gas is then expanded in the Laval Tube, just like in chemical rockets. This type of rocket was developed and tested in the United States during the 1960s, but was never used. The gases expelled by this type of rocket can be radioactive, which makes it inadvisable to use them inside the Earth’s atmosphere, but they can be used outside it. This type of rocket has the advantage of allowing much higher efficiencies than conventional chemical rockets, as they allow exhaust gases to be accelerated to much higher speeds. Currently, it is Russia that stands out in the development of thermal nuclear engines [34] [35] [36].

Humanity’s greatest scientific and technological challenge is represented by the need to undertake space and interstellar travel. For this purpose, we would need a spacecraft that travels at an absurdly high speed – something close to the speed of light (300,000 km/s). In addition to not having rocket technology that develops speeds close to that of light, interstellar travel would be unfeasible for human beings even if we had these rockets because with speeds close to that of light there would be negative consequences for the lives of the crew and passengers and for the spacecraft themselves  [31]. For human beings to carry out long-distance space missions, it is necessary to find more advanced forms of rocket propulsion to reach distances of hundreds or thousands of light years, given that, according to scientists, current chemical rockets are limited by the maximum speed of rockets exhaust gases. Other alternatives proposed by scientists would consist of using nuclear thermal propulsion, a solar/ion engine as a new form of rocket propulsion, as well as the creation of a fusion reactor in which a rocket extracts hydrogen from interstellar space and liquefies it. NASA wants to test nuclear-powered rockets by 2027. Advanced nuclear thermal propulsion technology will allow the spacecraft to be faster, have shorter travel times and will also enable more agile cargo delivery to a new lunar base and robotic missions even further away. With the help of this technology, astronauts will be able to travel to and from deep space faster than ever before. The new propulsion has the potential to enable manned missions to Mars. According to NASA, a nuclear-powered thermal rocket can be three to four times more efficient than conventional rockets and reduce travel time to the Red Planet, that is, from 8 months to 2 months [34]. Ion engine took a ship to the edge of the Solar System. The probe is the first space exploration mission to use an ion engine instead of conventional thrusters, powered by chemical reactions. The ion propulsion system will be adopted in the next generation of NASA spacecraft. The propellant uses electrical energy to create magnetically charged fuel particles, usually in the form of xenon gas, accelerating these particles to very high speeds. Whether it is energy from the Sun or the atom, it would be used to ionize (or positively charge) an inert gas such as xenon or krypton. The accelerated ions would be pushed out of the thruster, propelling the ship forward. If at first the spacecraft would advance slowly, over time the acceleration would be gradual and inexorable, reaching a speed close to that of light, enabling a human being to reach nearby stars, such as Alpha Centauri, 4.3 light years away [33].

Bussard propulsion is another propulsion method for spacecraft that could accelerate to a speed close to the speed of light, and would be a very efficient type of spacecraft. The most obvious fuel source, which was proposed by Bussard, is hydrogen fusion, as hydrogen is believed to be the most common component of interstellar gas. An electromagnetic field could attract positive ions from the interstellar medium and force them into the ramjet engine. Superfast space travel close to the speed of light would, however, be fatal to humans, according to a publication by Edelstein and Edelstein in Natural Science which reports that the hydrogen in any aircraft capable of traveling at the speed of light would also prevent it from making the trip to this speed because, as the ship’s speed approached that of light, the interstellar H hydrogen would transform into intense radiation that would quickly kill the passengers and destroy the electronic instruments. Furthermore, the loss of energy from ionizing radiation passing through the outside of the ship would represent an increasing increase in heat that would require large energy dumps to cool the ship. Even if it is possible to create a ship capable of traveling at speeds close to that of light, it would not be able to transport people. There is a natural speed limit imposed by safe levels of radiation due to hydrogen that means that humans cannot travel at more than half the speed of light unless they want a quick, immediate death [33].

The theory of general relativity imposes severe restrictions on interstellar travel. One of them is the most obvious: nothing can be accelerated to speeds above that of light, which is about 300,000 km/s. Even if we could travel at that speed, it would still take a long time to reach other stars and their respective planetary systems. The theory of general relativity opened up new fields of science and allowed ideas such as creating a space warp engine to travel to any corner of the Universe. The concept of warp space is not new. It is a type of engine that allows the spacecraft to travel at speeds faster than the speed of light. It is a technology that would allow the creation of a “bubble” in space-time. This bubble could create a kind of bridge between two points in space. Travel to destinations located light years away from Earth will still remain beyond our reach, but space warp technology, if it ever exists, could be the solution to interstellar travel [31].

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​*Author: Fernando Alcoforado is a PhD in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the Barcelona University, Spain. He graduated in Electrical Engineering from UFBA – Federal University of Bahia, Brazil, and Specialist in Engineering Economy and Industrial Administration from UFRJ – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He received the Brazilian Medal of Merit of Engineering from the CONFEA (Federal Council of Engineering and Agronomy of Brazil) and he is a member of the Bahia Academy of Education, Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science (SBPC) and Polytechnic Institute of Bahia (IPB), holds the position of professor of postgraduate courses in Administration, Economics and Engineering from several Brazilian educational institutions and as a Consultant in the areas of strategic planning, regional planning, planning of systems of science, technology and innovation and planning of systems of energy. He held the positions of Coordinator of Strategic Planning of CEPED – Research and Development Center of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of City of Salvador, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, President of IRAE – Instituto Rômulo Almeida of Higher Studies, Director of the Faculty of Administration of the Faculties Integrated Olga Mettig of Salvador, Bahia and Consultant of WINROCK INTERNATIONAL in the area of renewable energy and UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and Culture. He is the author of books which deal with issues relating to Brazilian and World Economy, Energy, Economic and Social Development, Environmental Sustainability, Global Warming, Climate Change, Globalization, Science and Technology and Cosmology.​