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THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY WITH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL THREATS TO LIFE ON PLANET EARTH

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to demonstrate the need to adopt global strategies in the near future that are capable of eliminating or neutralizing the threats to humanity internal to planet Earth, in the 21st century, represented by the end of the world capitalist system, by the exhaustion of natural resources of the planet, by catastrophic global climate change, by the escalation of international conflicts that could lead to the war of all against all at national and international levels, and also by the pandemic of viruses similar to Coronavirus. In addition to internal threats, strategies must be developed to ensure the survival of humanity in the near future in the face of the immediate threats related to the collision of asteroids on planet Earth and the explosion of supernovae with the release of gamma and X-ray radiation and, in the long term future, represented by the distancing of the Moon in relation to the Earth, the collision of the Andromeda Galaxy with the Milky Way Galaxy where the solar system is located, the death of the Sun and the end of the Universe in which we live.

Among the internal threats, the first, of an economic nature, is represented by the general crisis of the world capitalist system that tends to lead the world in the middle of the 21st century to depression with the bankruptcy of governments, the bankruptcy of companies, mass unemployment and even even a new world conflagration as it already happened in the 20th century with the 1st and 2nd World War. The second threat, of an environmental nature, is represented by the exhaustion of the Earth planet’s natural resources, the scarcity and pollution of water, the disordered growth of cities and the catastrophic global climate change during the 21st century resulting from the chaotic mode of capitalist production and the excessive increase of planetary population that tends to produce serious repercussions on economic activities and the worsening of human social problems, as well as the advent of international conflicts. The third threat may result from three major international conflicts that can start a new World War: 1) The United States-China-Russia conflict; 2) The Israel-Palestine conflict; and, 3) The United States-Israel-Iran conflict. The fourth threat is represented by the emergence of new pandemics such as the one currently occurring, that of the Coronavirus.

The immediate external threats concern the collision of asteroids on planet Earth and the explosion of supernovae with the release of gamma radiation and X-rays. To avoid the collision of large asteroids on planet Earth, humanity should use powerful rockets to deflect them. With the external threat posed by the collision between the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies, humanity would have to seek its escape to a planet in a closer galaxy like the Big Dog Dwarf Galaxy located 25,000 light years away. In order to face the problems resulting from the Moon’s distancing in relation to the Earth, humanity could seek its survival by implanting space colonies on Mars, Titan (Saturn’s moon), Callisto (Jupiter’s moon) and the dwarf planet Pluto in the solar system, possible escape locations, all of them with numerous obstacles that would require great technological advancement to overcome them. Before the death of the Sun, humanity should leave the solar system and reach a new planet in another planetary system that is habitable for human beings. This planet could be “Proxima Centauri b” orbiting the closest star to the Sun that is part of the Alpha Centauri system. Before the end of the Universe in which we live, humanity should seek a way out, that is, a parallel universe, for humanity to escape and survive all catastrophic scenarios.

As for internal threats to planet Earth, the survival of humanity depends on the ability of human beings to find solutions for rational management for the recycling of natural resources in order to avoid depletion, for the use of water to avoid its pollution and misuse and for the development of cities to prevent their disorderly growth, as well as scientific and technological solutions to deal with internal threats related to the environmental nature represented by the catastrophic global climate change with the adoption of clean technologies for industrial production, transportation and energy,to combat water, soil and air pollution such as the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and those related to the development of medicines and vaccines capable of combating current and new viruses. Internal threats will only be successfully combated to the extent that humanity acquires the capacity to coordinate its actions in the management of the global economy and in international relations with the implementation of a global governance capable of dealing with the worsening of the crisis of the world capitalist system until mid-21st century and order the world economic system on new bases after this crisis and that is also capable of preventing the emergence of new international conflicts that could lead humanity to a new World War. In addition to world governance, a new model of society must be implemented in every country in the world, capable of promoting the universal welfare state, the universal provision of basic human rights and the stabilization of the economy, equality of gender, the reduction of social inequality and the great magnitude of wealth redistribution to the population.

As for the external threats described above, the survival of mankind depends on the advancement of science and technology without which human beings will not be able to survive the threats represented by the distancing of the Moon in relation to the Earth, the collision of asteroids on the planet Earth, the explosion of supernovae with the release of gamma radiation and X-rays, the collision of the Andromeda Galaxy with the Milky Way Galaxy where the solar system is located, the death of the Sun and the end of the Universe in which we live. Currently, humanity would be able to prevent the collision of large asteroids on the planet Earth because it has powerful rockets capable of hitting them. However, there are no technological resources to avoid the damage that could be caused by the explosion of supernovae with the release of gamma and X-ray radiation, the consequences of which will be catastrophic for humanity, just as there are no technological resources to implant space colonies on Mars, Titan (moon of Saturn), Callisto (moon of Jupiter) and the dwarf planet Pluto. Mankind also lacks the scientific and technological resources to seek its escape to a planet in a closer galaxy such as the Big Dog Dwarf Galaxy, to reach another habitable planet, “Proxima Centauri b”, orbiting the star closest to the Sun that is part of the Alpha Centauri system, much less seek a way out to a parallel universe before the end of our Universe.

If the scientific and technological challenge is immense to escape to a planet in a galaxy like the Big Dog Dwarf Galaxy located 25,000 light years away, to reach a new planet in another planetary system that is habitable for human beings such as “Proxima Centauri b “orbiting the closest star to the Sun that is part of the Alpha Centauri system, the challenge would be even greater in abandoning our Universe and heading towards parallel universes. According to Michio Kaku, an American theoretical physicist, professor and co-creator of the string field theory, the main problem in abandoning our Universe and going to parallel universes is whether we will have enough resources to build machines capable of accomplishing such a difficult feat and if the laws of physics allow these machines to exist.

For humanity to escape to parallel universes, Kaku says it is necessary to overcome a series of great obstacles. The first barrier would be to complete a theory of everything when we would be able to verify the consequences of using advanced technologies. In addition, Kaku proposes to find wormholes and white holes that are dimensional gates and cosmic strings that would make it possible to reach parallel universes, send probes through a black hole that would function as an emergency hatch to leave our Universe, build a black hole for purposes experiments, create a baby universe with a false vacuum in the laboratory, create immense atom colliders despite major engineering problems, create implosion mechanisms using laser beams, build a bend-boosting machine with the ability to cross immense stellar distances, use the negative energy of the compressed states with the use of laser beams that can be used to generate negative matter to open and stabilize wormholes, wait for quantum transitions to escape to another universe and, finally, as a last hope, with the fusion of our consciousness with our robotic creations using advanced DNA engineering, nanotechnology and robotics.

Kaku says that humanity will have billions of years ahead to find the solution that will allow us to abandon our Universe towards parallel worlds. Kaku says that for long-distance interplanetary missions, physicists will have to find more exotic forms of rocket propulsion if they expect to reach distances hundreds of light-years away as current chemical rockets are limited by the maximum velocity of exhaust gases. He says that the development of a solar / ion engine could provide a new way of propelling rockets between the stars. One possible project would be to create a fusion reactor, a rocket that extracts hydrogen from interstellar space and liquefies it by releasing unlimited amounts of energy in the process.

Everything that has just been exposed indicates the need for humanity to equip itself as urgently as possible with the necessary instruments to have control of its destiny with the implantation of a democratic world government. This is the only means of survival for the human species to face the internal and external threats to planet Earth described above. Internal and external threats demand the constitution of a global democratic government that would aim not only to overcome internal threats with the global economic order, the defense of the global environment, the conquest of world peace and the defense against current and future pandemics, but, also, to create the conditions to face external threats coming from space whose global actions to neutralize them are impossible to be carried out by national states alone and by current international institutions.

Internal and external threats to humanity also require the building of a new model of society that allows civilized coexistence among all human beings. The model of society that would allow to achieve this objective would be the Nordic or Scandinavian model of social democracy, practiced in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland, which could be better described as a kind of middle ground between capitalism and socialism. In 2013, The Economist magazine stated that the Nordic countries are probably the best governed countries in the world. The UN World Happiness Report 2019 shows that the happiest nations in the world are concentrated in Northern Europe. According to the 2019 Happiness Report, Finland is the happiest country in the world, with Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and The Netherlands holding the next top positions. Nordics have the highest ranking in real GDP per capita, the longest healthy life expectancy, the greatest freedom to make life choices and the greatest generosity. Despite their differences, Scandinavian countries share some features in common: a universalist welfare state that is geared towards improving individual autonomy, promoting social mobility and ensuring the universal provision of basic human rights and stabilizing the economy. It is also distinguished by its emphasis on labor force participation, promoting gender equality, reducing social inequality, extensive levels of benefits to the population and great magnitude of wealth redistribution.

REFERENCES

ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Energia no mundo e no Brasil. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2015.

______________________. Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2019.

______________________. Articles published on the website <https://fernandoalcoforado.academia.edu/research> with the following titles:

The end of the world capitalist system in the middle of the 21st century
The future of capitalism• Planet Earth and its limits on the use of natural resources
Water in the world and its gigantic problems
The issue of water in the world and its immense challenges
The circular economy to avoid depletion of the planet Earth’s natural resources
Global climate change and its solutions
How to prepare cities against extreme weather events• How to make cities sustainable
New sources of energy and energy efficiency to prevent catastrophic global climate change
The world towards the 4th World War
How to eliminate war in the world
Why another world is necessary and possible
How to build a scenario of peace and cooperation between nations and peoples
Chaos in international relations requires world government
The world government to face the great challenges of humanity in the 21st century
Coronavirus and its impacts on the world economy
The world after Coronavirus
Threats to life on Earth coming from space
The three major threats to humanity in the 21st century
Humanity’s strategies for dealing with internal and external threats to planet Earth
Why the Moon is important for life on planet Earth
How planet Earth works
The Sun and its importance for life on planet Earth
The future of the Universe and humanity
Science and advances in knowledge about the Universe

KAKU, Michio. Mundos paralelos. Rio: Editora Rocco Ltda., 2005.

World Happiness Report 2019.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

O FUTURO DA HUMANIDADE DIANTE DAS AMEAÇAS INTERNAS E EXTERNAS À VIDA NO PLANETA TERRA

Fernando Alcoforado*

Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar a necessidade da adoção de estratégias globais no futuro próximo que sejam capazes de eliminar ou neutralizar as ameaças para a humanidade internas ao planeta Terra, no século XXI, representadas pelo fim do sistema capitalista mundial, pela exaustão dos recursos naturais do planeta, pela mudança climática catastrófica global, pela escalada dos conflitos internacionais que poderão levar à guerra de todos contra todos nos planos nacional e internacional e, também, pela pandemia de vírus similares ao Coronavirus. Além das ameaças internas, é preciso desenvolver estratégias que assegurem a sobrevivência da humanidade no futuro próximo diante das ameaças imediatas relativas à colisão de asteroides sobre o planeta Terra e a explosão de supernovas com a liberação da radiação gama e raio X e, no futuro a longo prazo, representadas pelo afastamento da Lua em relação à Terra, a colisão da Galáxia Andrômeda com a Galáxia Via Láctea onde se localiza o sistema solar, a morte do Sol e o fim do Universo em que vivemos.

Entre as ameaças internas, a primeira, de natureza econômica é representada pela crise geral do sistema capitalista mundial que tende a conduzir o mundo em meados do século XXI à depressão com a falência dos governos, a quebradeira de empresas, o desemprego em massa e até mesmo uma nova conflagração mundial como já ocorreu no século XX com a 1ª e a 2ª Guerra Mundial. A segunda ameaça, de natureza ambiental, é representada pela exaustão dos recursos naturais do planeta Terra, pela escassez e poluição da água, pelo crescimento desordenado das cidades e pela catastrófica mudança climática global durante o século XXI resultantes do modo caótico de produção capitalista e do aumento desmesurado da população planetária que tende a produzir graves repercussões sobre as atividades econômicas e o agravamento dos problemas sociais da humanidade, bem como o advento de conflitos internacionais. A terceira ameaça, pode resultar de três grandes conflitos internacionais que podem dar início uma nova Guerra Mundial: 1) O conflito Estados Unidos- China – Rússia; 2) O conflito Israel- Palestina; e, 3) O conflito Estados Unidos- Israel- Irã. A quarta ameaça é representada pelo surgimento de novas pandemias como a que vem ocorrendo no momento, a do Coronavirus.

As ameaças externas imediatas dizem respeito à colisão de asteroides sobre o planeta Terra e a explosão de supernovas com a liberação da radiação gama e raio X. Para evitar a colisão de grandes asteróides sobre o planeta Terra, a humanidade deveria utilizar foguetes poderosos para desviá-los. Com a ameaça externa representada pela colisão entre as galáxias Andrômeda e Via Láctea, a humanidade teria que buscar sua fuga para um planeta em uma galáxia mais próxima como a Galáxia Anã do Cão Maior situada a 25.000 anos-luz. Para fazer frente aos problemas resultantes do afastamento da Lua em relação à Terra, a humanidade poderia buscar sua sobrevivência implantando no sistema solar colônias espaciais em Marte, Titan (lua de Saturno), Callisto (lua de Júpiter) e no planeta anão Plutão que são possíveis locais de fuga todos eles com inúmeros obstáculos que exigiriam grande avanço tecnológico para superá-los. Antes da morte do Sol, a humanidade deveria sair do sistema solar e alcançar um novo planeta em outro sistema planetário que seja habitável para os seres humanos. Este planeta poderia ser o “Proxima Centauri b” orbitando a estrela mais próxima do Sol integrante do sistema Alpha Centauri. Antes do fim do Universo em que vivemos, a humandade deveria buscar uma saída, isto é, um universo paralelo, para a humanidade escapar e sobreviver a todos os cenários catastróficos.

Quanto às ameaças internas ao planeta Terra, a sobrevivência da humanidade depende da capacidade que os seres humanos tenham de encontrar soluções de gestão racional para a reciclagem dos recursos naturais visando evitar sua exaustão, para o uso das águas para evitar sua poluição e má utilização e para o desenvolvimento das cidades para evitar seu crescimento desordenado, bem como de soluções científicas e tecnológicas para lidar com as ameaças internas relacionadas com a de natureza ambiental representada pela catastrófica mudança climática global com a adoção de tecnologias limpas de produção industrial, de transporte e de energia, de combate à poluição das águas, do solo e do ar como a emissão de gases do efeito estufa na atmosfera e aquelas relacionadas com o desenvolvimento de medicamentos e vacinas capazes de combater os atuais e novos virus. As ameaças internas só serão combatidas com êxito na medida em que a humanidade adquira a capacidade de coordenar suas ações na gestão da economia global e nas relações internacionais com a implantação de uma governança mundial capaz de fazer frente ao agravamento da crise do sistema capitalista mundial até meados do século XXI e ordenar o sistema econômico mundial em novas bases após esta crise e que seja capaz, também, de evitar a eclosão de de novos conflitos internacionais que possam levar a humanidade a uma nova Guerra Mundial. Além da governança mundial, é preciso que, em cada país do mundo, seja implantado um novo modelo de sociedade capaz de promover o estado de bem-estar-social universalista, a prestação universal de direitos humanos básicos e a estabilização da economia, a igualdade de gênero, a redução da desigualdade social e grande magnitude de redistribuição da riqueza para a população.

Quanto às ameaças externas acima descritas, a sobrevivência da humanidade depende do avanço da ciência e tecnologia sem a qual os seres humanos não conseguirão sobreviver às ameaças representadas pelo afastamento da Lua em relação à Terra, a colisão de asteroides sobre o planeta Terra, a explosão de supernovas com a liberação da radiação gama e raio X, a colisão da Galáxia Andrômeda com a Galáxia Via Láctea onde se localiza o sistema solar, a morte do Sol e o fim do Universo em que vivemos. Atualmente, a humanidade teria condições de evitar a colisão de grandes asteróides sobre o planeta Terra porque dispõe de poderosos foguetes capazes de atingi-los. No entanto, não existem recursos tecnológicos que permitam evitar os danos que poderão ser proporcionados pela explosão de supernovas com a liberação da radiação gama e raio X cujas consequências serão catastróficas para a humanidade da mesma forma que não há recursos tecnológicos para implantar colônias espaciais em Marte, Titan (lua de Saturno), Callisto (lua de Júpiter) e no planeta anão Plutão. A humanidade não dispõe, também, de recursos científicos e tecnológicos para buscar sua fuga para um planeta em uma galáxia mais próxima como a Galáxia Anã do Cão Maior, alcançar outro planeta habitável, o “Proxima Centauri b”, orbitando a estrela mais próxima do Sol integrante do sistema Alpha Centauri e muito menos buscar uma saída para um universo paralelo antes do fim de nosso Universo.

Se é imenso o desafio científico e tecnológico para fugir para um planeta em uma galáxia como a Galáxia Anã do Cão Maior situada a 25.000 anos-luz, alcançar um novo planeta em outro sistema planetário que seja habitável para os seres humanos como o “Proxima Centauri b” orbitando a estrela mais próxima do Sol integrante do sistema Alpha Centauri, o desafio seria ainda maior em abandonar nosso Universo e se dirigir para universos paralelos. Segundo Michio Kaku, físico teórico estadunidense, professor e co-criador da teoria de campos de corda, o principal problema em abandonar nosso Universo e se dirigir para universos paralelos é se teremos recursos suficientes para construir máquinas capazes de realizar uma proeza tão dificil e se as leis da física permitem a existência dessas máquinas.

Para a humanidade escapar para universos paralelos, Kaku afirma ser preciso superar uma série de grandes obstáculos. A primeira barreira seria completar uma teoria de tudo quando teríamos condições de verificar as consequências da utilização de tecnologias avançadas. Além disso, Kaku propõe encontrar buracos de minhoca e buracos brancos que são portões dimensionais e cordas cósmicas que possibilitariam alcançar universos paralelos, enviar sondas através de um buraco negro que funcionaria como escotilha de emergência para sair de nosso Universo, construir um buraco negro para propósitos experimentais, criar um universo bebê com um falso vácuo no laboratório, criar imensos colisores de átomos apesar dos grandes problemas de engenharia, criar mecanismos de implosão com o uso de raios laser, construir uma máquina de impulsionar a dobra com capacidade de cruzar imensas distâncias estelares, usar a energia negativa dos estados comprimidos com o uso de raios laser que podem ser utilizados para gerar matéria negativa para abrir e estabilizar buracos de minhoca, esperar por transições quânticas para escapar para outro universo e, finalmente, como última esperança, com a fusão de nossa consciência com nossas criações robóticas usando engenharia de DNA avançada, nanotecnologia e robótica.

Kaku afirma que a humanidade terá pela frente bilhões de anos para encontrar a solução que possibilite abandonar nosso Universo em direção a mundos paralelos. Kaku afirma que, para as missões interplanetárias de longa distância, os físicos terão que encontrar formas mais exóticas de propulsão de foguetes se esperam alcançar distâncias a centenas de anos-luz haja vista que os foguetes químicos atuais é limitada pela velocidade máxima dos gases de escapamento. Ele diz que o desenvolvimento de um motor solar/iônico pode proporcionar uma nova forma de propulsão de foguetes entre as estrelas. Um projeto possível seria criar um reator de fusão, um foguete que extrai hidrogênio do espaço interestelar e o liquefaz liberando quantidades ilimitadas de energia no processo.

Tudo o que acaba de ser exposto indica a necessidade de a humanidade se dotar o mais urgentemente possível de instrumentos necessários a ter o controle de seu destino com a implantação de um governo democrático mundial. Este é o único meio de sobrevivência da espécie humana para fazer frente às ameaças internas e externas ao planeta Terra acima descritas. As ameaças internas e externas exigem a constituição de um governo democrático mundial que visaria não apenas a superação das ameaças internas com o ordenamento econômico global, a defesa do meio ambiente global, a conquista da paz mundial e a defesa contra atuais e futuras pandemias, mas, também, criar as condições para enfrentar as ameaças externas vindas do espaço cujas ações de caráter global para neutralizá-las são impossíveis de serem levadas avante pelos estados nacionais isoladamente e pelas instituições internacionais atuais.

As ameaças internas e externas para a humanidade exigem, também, a edificação de um novo modelo de sociedade que possibilite uma convivência civilizada entre todos os seres humanos. O modelo de sociedade que permitiria atingir este objetivo seria o modelo nórdico ou escandinavo de social democracia, praticado na Dinamarca, Noruega, Suécia, Finlândia e Islândia, que poderia ser melhor descrito como uma espécie de meio-termo entre capitalismo e socialismo. Em 2019, a revista The Economist declarou que os países nórdicos são provavelmente os mais bem governados do mundo. O relatório World Happiness Report 2019 da ONU mostra que as nações mais felizes do mundo estão concentradas no Norte da Europa. De acordo com o World Happiness Report 2019, a Finlândia é o país mais feliz do mundo, com Dinamarca, Noruega, Islândia e Holanda ocupando as próximas primeiras posições. Os nórdicos possuem a mais alta classificação no PIB real per capita, a maior expectativa de vida saudável, a maior liberdade de fazer escolhas na vida e a maior generosidade. Apesar de suas diferenças, os países escandinavos compartilham alguns traços em comum: estado de bem-estar-social universalista que é voltado para melhorar a autonomia individual, promovendo a mobilidade social e assegurando a prestação universal de direitos humanos básicos e a estabilização da economia. Se distingue, também, por sua ênfase na participação da força de trabalho, promovendo igualdade de gênero, redução da desigualdade social, extensos níveis de benefícios à população e grande magnitude de redistribuição da riqueza.

REFERÊNCIAS

ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Energia no mundo e no Brasil. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2015.

______________________. Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2019.

______________________. Artigos publicados no website <https://fernandoalcoforado.academia.edu/research> com os títulos seguintes:

O fim do sistema capitalista mundial em meados do século XXI
O futuro do capitalismo
O planeta Terra e seus limites no uso dos recursos naturais
Água no mundo e seus gigantescos problemas
A questão da água no mundo e seus imensos desafios
A economia circular para evitar a exaustão dos recursos naturais do planeta Terra
Mudança climática global e suas soluções
Como preparar as cidades contra eventos climáticos extremos
Como tornar as cidades sustentáveis
Novas fontes de energia e eficiência energética para evitar a catastrófica mudança climática global
O mundo rumo à 4ª guerra mundial
Como eliminar a guerra no mundo
Porque um outro mundo é necessário e possível
Como construir um cenário de paz e cooperação entre as nações e os povos
Caos nas relações internacionais exige um governo mundial
O governo mundial para enfrentar os grandes desafios da humanidade no século XXI
O mundo depois do Coronavirus
Coronavirus e seus impactos sobre a economia mundial
As ameaças sobre a vida na Terra vindas do espaço
As três grandes ameaças para a humanidade no século XXI
As estratégias da humanidade para lidar com as ameaças internas e externas ao planeta Terra
Porque a Lua é importante para a vida no planeta Terra
Como funciona o planeta Terra
O Sol e sua importância para a vida no planeta Terra
O futuro do Universo e da humanidade
A ciência e os avanços no conhecimento sobre o Universo

KAKU, Michio. mundos paralelos. Rio: Editora Rocco Ltda., 2005.

ONU. World Happiness Report 2013

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, condecorado com a Medalha do Mérito da Engenharia do Sistema CONFEA/CREA, membro da Academia Baiana de Educação, engenheiro e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) e Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS REVEALS THE IMPORTANCE OF NATIONAL SELF-SUFFICIENCY

Fernando Alcoforado*

The coronavirus crisis finds Brazil devastated as a country threatened with having collapsed its health system and unable to produce inputs for the manufacture of drugs, respirators and even masks to protect health professionals and the population. Even the United States today is a good example of the scarcity that many countries face because it transferred many of its industries to China. In New York, where the situation of the epidemic is dramatic, everything from personal protective equipment to respirators is lacking. Today, as in much of the world, many governments lament the lack of development projects that make the country self-sufficient because they have left the free market to make decisions such as closing factories in the country and taking them to places where profit margins would be higher, such as China, India and Southeast Asian countries. This stance was dictated by the vision that started to prevail in the world from 1990 onwards, that of globalization and the opening of markets according to the neoliberal ideology.

The decision by governments not to produce locally by transferring it to places where profit margins would be higher was a determinant of the decision by governments not to invest in the production of medical materials and equipment in their countries by transferring it to countries with lower production costs as is the case in China. The result is catastrophic because there is a lack of supplies for the manufacture of drugs, respirators and even masks to protect health professionals and the population. In Brazil, the situation is deplorable because industry, science and national technology have been scrapped since 1990 with the adoption by different governments of neoliberal policies that have contributed to increasing technological and industrial dependence on the outside. The current downturn in the industry reveals the sector’s inability to react and the prospect of a reversal of the situation is very difficult in the current economic downturn aggravated by the coronavirus crisis. This retraction of the Brazilian industry comes since the 1980s, when the participation of the manufacturing industry in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 33% and, in 2019, it did not exceed 11.3%. It is the lowest level in 80 years. Stagnant, the industry has the lowest share of GDP since the late 1940s.

In Brazil, government action has been very weak in the development of science, technology and innovation due to the fact that there has been no industrial policy since 1980 that points out effective solutions aiming at the permanent reduction of industry production costs in Brazil vis-à-vis Asian countries , especially China, which can only occur in four ways: (1) reducing the the tax burden and improving the logistics infrastructure in Brazil; (2) increased productivity in the industry by raising its levels of efficiency and effectiveness and strengthening its production chains; (3) devaluation of the real with restrictions on the entry of dollars or the adoption of fixed exchange rates; and (4) selective and permanent exemption from industry with the reduction of the tax burden on it.

These solutions should be complemented by the adoption of measures aimed at: 1) overcoming the gigantic problems of education in Brazil at all levels with the objective of increasing the country’s “critical mass”; 2) the development of knowledge resources by adopting programs to implement R&D centers, strengthen universities, acquire technology and attract brains from abroad; 3) the adequate provision of infrastructure resources, establishing effective programs to eliminate existing logistical bottlenecks; 4) encouraging links between the production chains of companies and their suppliers, eliminating existing gaps; and, 5) combating predatory competition from imported products by restricting or limiting their entry into the national market. None of this is being adopted, a fact that is contributing to Brazil being entirely at the mercy of the Coronavirus because the scrapped industry and science and technology system are not in a position to offer a prompt response to current problems.

The United States, for example, has 1 million scientists working in research and development, of which 79% are in business, 8% in government and 13% in higher education institutions. In Brazil, which has 123 thousand scientists, 72% of the researchers are in universities, 23% in companies and 5% in the government. South Korea, which has invested heavily in applied research over the past 25 years, has 100,000 scientists and engineers working at the companies. These figures show that, unlike the United States and South Korea, the contribution of companies in R&D in Brazil is very small. This fact explains why Brazil remains one of the least innovative countries in the world. This deficiency causes profound damages to the Brazilian company’s ability to compete, since technological innovation is created much more in the company than in the university, whose specific mission is to educate professionals and generate fundamental knowledge.

The absence of these measures contributed to the occurrence, from 1990 until the moment, of the bankruptcy of large industrial sectors, the deindustrialization and denationalization of the Brazilian economy. The denationalization of the Brazilian economy is evident when one observes that, of the 50 largest Brazilian companies, 26 are foreign, according to the Census of Foreign Capital in Brazil. More than half of Brazilian companies in cutting-edge sectors (automotive, aeronautics, electronics, computers, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, agribusiness and minerals) are in the hands of foreign capital. Foreign capital is present in 17,605 Brazilian companies that account for 63% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and controls 36% of the banking sector and holds 25% of Bradesco shares and 20% of Banco do Brasil shares. Brazil’s subordination to international capital in the industrial sector and other sectors of the Brazilian economy explains why it is among the last countries placed in terms of innovation and why the companies installed here contribute little to the development of Research and Development (R&D).

From the above, it can be concluded that the countries of the world must pursue their self-sufficiency by abandoning the current, neoliberal and economic and financial globalization policy, responsible for global economic weaknesses and dependence on the outside, with its replacement by the development model that prioritize production in the interior of the country of essential products and services for its economic and social progress. Brazil and all the backward countries of the world will only promote their development if they put an end to their external dependence (economic and technological) in relation to the central capitalist countries. Realizing the economic and technological rupture in relation to the central capitalist countries does not mean autarkic development, but rather to promote the country’s internal development with selective economic opening in relation to the outside as Japan, South Korea and China did in the 1970s , 1980 and 1990, respectively. The rupture of dependence means active participation of the State in the planning of the national economy aiming at the development of the productive forces of the country and the domestic market, domestic production in substitution for imported products and, also, export products, the development of its own technology and the formation of internal savings in the amount necessary to not depend on foreign capital for investment. This strategy would provide for the expansion of the national economy with the generation of sufficient business and jobs to meet the country’s needs, in addition to mitigating the impact of the crises that occur in the world economy as a result of the trade war unleashed by the United States against China, possible explosion of the world debt bubble and problems like the coronavirus pandemic.

Only then will it be possible to make Brazil grow economically at high rates and eliminate the underutilization of the workforce that reaches the record level of 27.7 million workers, according to the PNAD survey by IBGE. In the article by Nicola Pamplona published in Folha de S. Paulo on 5/17/2018, under the title Falta trabalho para 27,7 milhões de pessoas, diz IBGE, (Without work for 27.7 million people, says IBGE), available on the website <https: // www1-Folha-uol-com -br.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www1.folha.uol.com.br/amp/mercado/2018/05/falta-trabalho-para-277-milhoes-de-pessoas-diz-ibge.shtml >, there is information that the underutilization rate of the workforce, which includes the unemployed, people who would like to work more and those who gave up looking for a job, broke a record in the first quarter, reaching 24.7%. Altogether, there are 27.7 million people in these conditions, the largest contingent since the beginning of the historical series, in 2012. Of these, 13.7 million sought employment, but did not find it. The rest are under-occupied due to insufficient hours worked, people who would like to work, but did not look for a job or gave up looking for a job. This situation was further aggravated by the coronavirus crisis.

LA CRISE DU CORONAVIRUS RÉVÈLE L’IMPORTANCE DE L’AUTOSUFFISANCE NATIONAL

Fernando Alcoforado*

La crise des coronavirus trouve le Brésil dévasté en tant que pays menacé d’avoir effondré son système de santé et incapable de produire des intrants pour la fabrication de médicaments, de respirateurs et même de masques pour protéger les professionnels de la santé et la population. Aujourd’hui, même les États-Unis sont un bon exemple de la rareté à laquelle de nombreux pays sont confrontés car ils ont transféré bon nombre de leurs industries en Chine. À New York, où la situation de l’épidémie est dramatique, tout, de l’équipement de protection individuelle aux respirateurs, fait défaut. Aujourd’hui, comme dans une grande partie du monde, de nombreux gouvernements déplorent le manque de projets de développement qui rendent le pays autosuffisant parce qu’ils ont quitté le marché libre pour prendre des décisions telles que fermer des usines dans le pays et les emmener dans des endroits où les marges bénéficiaires seraient plus élevées, comme la Chine, l’Inde et les pays d’Asie du Sud-Est. Cette position a été dictée par la vision qui a commencé à s’imposer dans le monde à partir de 1990, celle de la mondialisation et de l’ouverture des marchés selon l’idéologie néolibérale.

La décision des gouvernements de ne pas produire localement en les transférant dans des endroits où les marges bénéficiaires seraient plus élevées a été un facteur déterminant de la décision des gouvernements de ne pas investir dans la production de matériel et d’équipements médicaux dans leur pays en les transférant vers des pays où les coûts de production sont inférieurs comme c’est le cas en Chine. Le résultat est catastrophique car il y a un manque de fournitures pour la fabrication de médicaments, de respirateurs et même de masques pour protéger les professionnels de santé et la population. Au Brésil, la situation est déplorable car l’industrie, la science et la technologie nationale ont été abandonnées depuis 1990 avec l’adoption par différents gouvernements de politiques néolibérales qui ont contribué à accroître la dépendance technologique et industrielle par rapport à l’extérieur. Le ralentissement actuel de l’industrie révèle l’incapacité du secteur à réagir et la perspective d’un renversement de la situation est très difficile dans le contexte de ralentissement économique actuel aggravé par la crise des coronavirus. Cette rétraction de l’industrie brésilienne intervient depuis les années 1980, lorsque la participation de l’industrie manufacturière au produit intérieur brut (PIB) était de 33% et, en 2019, elle n’a pas dépassé 11,3%. C’est le niveau le plus bas en 80 ans. Stagnante, l’industrie a la part la plus faible du PIB depuis la fin des années 40.

Au Brésil, l’action du gouvernement a été très faible dans le développement de la science, de la technologie et de l’innovation qui résulte de l’absence d’une politique industrielle depuis 1980 qui pointe des solutions efficaces visant à la réduction permanente des coûts de production de l’industrie au Brésil vis-à-vis des pays asiatiques, notamment la Chine, ce qui ne peut se produire que de quatre manières: (1) réduction de la pression fiscale et l’amélioration de l’infrastructure logistique du Brésil; (2) une productivité accrue dans l’industrie en augmentant ses niveaux d’efficience et d’efficacité et en renforçant ses chaînes de production; (3) la dévaluation du real avec des restrictions sur l’entrée de dollars ou l’adoption de taux de change fixes; et (4) l’exonération sélective et permanente de l’industrie avec la réduction de la pression fiscale sur elle.

Ces solutions devraient être complétées par l’adoption de mesures visant à: 1) surmonter les gigantesques problèmes de l’éducation au Brésil à tous les niveaux dans le but d’augmenter la «masse critique» du pays; 2) le développement des ressources de connaissances en adoptant des programmes pour mettre en place des centres de R&D, renforcer les universités, acquérir des technologies et attirer des cerveaux de l’étranger; 3) la fourniture adéquate de ressources d’infrastructure, la mise en place de programmes efficaces pour éliminer les goulots d’étranglement logistiques existants; 4) encourager les liens entre les chaînes de production des entreprises et leurs fournisseurs, en éliminant les lacunes existantes; et 5) lutter contre la concurrence prédatrice des produits importés en restreignant ou en limitant leur entrée sur le marché national. Rien de tout cela n’est adopté, un fait qui contribue à ce que le Brésil soit entièrement à la merci du Coronavirus parce que l’industrie et le système scientifique et technologique mis au rebut ne sont pas en mesure d’offrir une réponse rapide aux problèmes actuels.

Les États-Unis, par exemple, comptent 1 million de scientifiques travaillant dans la recherche et le développement, dont 79% sont dans les affaires, 8% dans le gouvernement et 13% dans les établissements d’enseignement supérieur. Au Brésil, qui compte 123 000 scientifiques, 72% des chercheurs sont dans les universités, 23% dans les entreprises et 5% dans le gouvernement. La Corée du Sud, qui a investi massivement dans la recherche appliquée au cours des 25 dernières années, compte 100 000 scientifiques et ingénieurs travaillant dans les entreprises. Ces chiffres montrent que, contrairement aux États-Unis et à la Corée du Sud, la contribution des entreprises à la R&D au Brésil est très faible. Ce fait explique pourquoi le Brésil reste l’un des pays les moins innovants du monde. Cette carence nuit gravement à la capacité de l’entreprise brésilienne à concurrencer, car l’innovation technologique est créée beaucoup plus dans l’entreprise que dans l’université, dont la mission spécifique est de former des professionnels et de générer des connaissances fondamentales.

L’absence de ces mesures a contribué à la survenue, de 1990 à ce jour, de la faillite de grands secteurs industriels, de la désindustrialisation et de la dénationalisation de l’économie brésilienne. La dénationalisation de l’économie brésilienne est évidente lorsque l’on observe que, sur les 50 plus grandes entreprises brésiliennes, 26 sont étrangères, selon le Recensement des capitaux étrangers au Brésil. Plus de la moitié des entreprises brésiliennes dans des secteurs de pointe (automobile, aéronautique, électronique, informatique, pharmaceutique, télécommunications, agro-industrie et minéraux) sont entre les mains de capitaux étrangers. Le capital étranger est présent dans 17605 entreprises brésiliennes qui représentent 63% du produit intérieur brut (PIB), contrôle 36% du secteur bancaire et détient 25% des actions Bradesco et 20% des actions Banco do Brasil. La subordination du Brésil aux capitaux internationaux dans le secteur industriel et dans d’autres secteurs de l’économie brésilienne explique pourquoi il est parmi les derniers pays classés en termes d’innovation et pourquoi les entreprises installées ici contribuent peu au développement de la Recherche et Développement (R&D).

De ce qui précède, on peut conclure que les pays du monde doivent poursuivre leur autosuffisance en abandonnant la politique actuelle néolibérale et de mondialisation économique et financière, responsable des faiblesses économiques mondiales et de la dépendance de l’extérieur, avec son remplacement par le modèle de développement qui donner la priorité à la production à l’intérieur du pays, ce qui est essentiel pour son progrès économique et social. Le Brésil et tous les pays arriérés du monde ne favoriseront leur développement que s’ils mettent fin à leur dépendance extérieure (économique et technologique) vis-à-vis des pays capitalistes centraux. Réaliser la rupture économique et technologique par rapport aux pays capitalistes centraux ne signifie pas un développement autarcique, mais plutôt favoriser le développement interne du pays avec une ouverture économique sélective par rapport à l’extérieur comme le Japon, la Corée du Sud et la Chine l’ont fait dans les années 1970, 1980 et 1990, respectivement. La rupture de la dépendance signifie la participation active de l’État à la planification de l’économie nationale visant au développement des forces productives du pays et du marché intérieur, à la production intérieure en remplacement des produits importés et aussi pour exportation, au développement de sa propre technologie et à la formation de l’épargne interne du montant nécessaire pour ne pas dépendre de capitaux étrangers pour l’investissement. Cette stratégie permettrait l’expansion de l’économie nationale avec la création d’entreprises et d’emplois suffisants pour répondre aux besoins du pays, en plus d’atténuer l’impact des crises qui se produisent dans l’économie mondiale à la suite de la guerre commerciale déclenchée par les États-Unis contre la Chine, explosion possible de la bulle mondiale de la dette et problèmes comme la pandémie de coronavirus.

Ce n’est qu’à cette condition qu’il sera possible de faire croître économiquement le Brésil à des taux élevés et d’éliminer la sous-utilisation de la main-d’œuvre qui atteint le niveau record de 27,7 millions de travailleurs, selon l’enquête PNAD de l’IBGE. Dans l’article de Nicola Pamplona publié dans Folha de S. Paulo le 17/05/2018, sous le titre Falta trabalho para 27,7 milhões de pessoas, diz IBGE (Travail manquant pour 27,7 millions de personnes, dit IBGE), disponible sur le site <https://www1-folha-uol-com-br.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www1.folha.uol.com.br/amp/mercado/2018/05/falta-trabalho-para-277-milhoes-de-pessoas-diz-ibge.shtml>, il existe des informations selon lesquelles le taux de sous-utilisation de la main-d’œuvre, qui comprend les chômeurs, les personnes qui souhaiteraient travailler davantage et celles qui ont renoncé à chercher un emploi, a battu un record au premier trimestre, atteignant 24,7%. Au total, il y a 27,7 millions de personnes dans ces conditions, le contingent le plus important depuis le début de la série historique, en 2012. Sur ce nombre, 13,7 millions ont cherché un emploi, mais ne l’ont pas trouvé. Les autres sont sous-occupés en raison d’un nombre d’heures de travail insuffisant, de personnes qui souhaiteraient travailler, mais qui n’ont pas cherché d’emploi ou qui ont abandonné la recherche d’un emploi. Cette situation a été encore aggravée par la crise des coronavirus.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, a reçoit la Médaille du Mérite en Ingénierie du Système CONFEA / CREA, membre de l’Académie de l’Education de Bahia, ingénieur et docteur en planification territoriale et développement régional pour l’Université de Barcelone, professeur universitaire et consultant dans les domaines de la planification stratégique, planification d’entreprise, planification régionale et planification énergétique, il est l’auteur de ouvrages Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) et Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

A CRISE DO CORONAVIRUS REVELA A IMPORTÂNCIA DA AUTOSSUFICIÊNCIA NACIONAL

Fernando Alcoforado*

A crise do coronavirus encontra o Brasil devastado como um país ameaçado de ter colapsado seu sistema de saúde e incapaz de produzir insumos para fabricação de fármacos, respiradores e, até mesmo, máscaras para proteção de profissionais da saúde e da população. Até mesmo os Estados Unidos são, hoje, um bom exemplo da escassez que muitos países enfrentam porque transferiu muitas de suas indústrias para a China. Em Nova Iorque, onde a situação da epidemia é dramática, falta desde equipamentos de proteção individual a respiradores. Hoje, como em boa parte do mundo, muitos governos lamentam a falta de projeto de desenvolvimento que torne autossuficiente o país porque deixaram o mercado livre para tomar decisões como fechar fábricas em território nacional e levá-las para locais onde as margens de lucro seriam maiores, como é o caso da China, Índia e países do Sudeste Asiático. Esta postura foi ditada pela visão que passou a prevalecer no mundo a partir de 1990 que foi a da globalização e da abertura dos mercados de acordo como a ideologia neoliberal.

A decisão dos governos de não produzir localmente transferindo-a para locais onde as margens de lucro seriam maiores foi determinante da decisão dos governos de não investirem na produção de materiais e equipamentos médicos em seus países transferindo-a para os países de menor custo de produção como é o caso da China. O resultado é catastrófico porque há falta de insumos para fabricação de fármacos, respiradores e, até mesmo, máscaras para proteção de profissionais da saúde e da população. No Brasil, a situação é lastimável porque a indústria, a ciência e a tecnologia nacional foram sucateadas desde 1990 com a adoção pelos diversos governos de políticas neoliberais que contribuíram para aumentar a dependência tecnológica e industrial em relação ao exterior. A retração atual da indústria revela incapacidade de reação do setor e a perspectiva de reversão do quadro é muito difícil na conjuntura atual de recessão econômica agravada pela crise do coronavirus. Esta retração da indústria brasileira vem desde a década de 1980, quando a participação da indústria de transformação no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) era de 33% e, em 2019, não passou de 11,3%. É o patamar mais baixo em 80 anos. Estagnada, a indústria tem a menor fatia do PIB desde o final da década de 1940.

No Brasil, a ação governamental tem sido bastante débil no desenvolvimento da ciência, da tecnologia e da inovação que resulta da inexistência de uma política industrial desde 1980 que aponte soluções eficazes visando a redução permanente dos custos de produção da indústria no Brasil frente aos países asiáticos, especialmente a China, que só pode ocorrer de quatro formas: (1) redução da queda da carga tributária e a melhoria da infraestrutura logística do Brasil; (2) aumento de produtividade da indústria com a elevação de seus níveis de eficiência e eficácia e fortalecimento de suas cadeias produtivas; (3) desvalorização do real com restrição à entrada de dólares ou a adoção do câmbio fixo; e (4) desoneração seletiva e permanente da indústria com a redução da carga tributária nela incidente

Estas soluções deveriam ser complementadas com a adoção de medidas voltadas para: 1) a superação dos gigantescos problemas da educação do Brasil em todos os níveis tendo como objetivo o aumento da “massa crítica” do País; 2) o desenvolvimento dos recursos de conhecimento adotando programas para implantação de centros de P&D, fortalecimento das universidades, aquisição de tecnologia e atração de cérebros do exterior; 3) a adequada dotação de recursos de infraestrutura estabelecendo programas eficazes de eliminação dos gargalos logísticos existentes; 4) o incentivo às ligações entre as cadeias produtivas das empresas e seus fornecedores com a eliminação de lacunas existentes; e, 5) o combate à competição predatória dos produtos importados com a restrição ou limitação de sua entrada no mercado nacional. Nada disto está sendo adotado, fato este que esta contribuindo para o Brasil estar inteiramente à mercê do Coronavirus porquanto a indústria e o sistema de ciência e tecnologia sucateados não estão em condições de oferecer pronta resposta aos problemas atuais.

Os Estados Unidos, por exemplo, têm 1 milhão de cientistas trabalhando em pesquisa e desenvolvimento dos quais 79% estão nas empresas, 8% no governo e 13% em instituições de ensino superior. Já no Brasil, que possui 123 mil cientistas, 72% dos pesquisadores estão nas universidades, 23% nas empresas e 5% no governo. A Coréia do Sul, que investiu pesadamente em pesquisa aplicada nos últimos 25 anos, tem 100 mil cientistas e engenheiros trabalhando nas empresas. Estes números mostram que, ao contrário dos Estados Unidos e da Coreia do Sul, a contribuição das empresas em P&D no Brasil é muito pequena. Este fato explica porque o Brasil continua sendo um dos países menos inovadores do mundo. Essa deficiência causa profundos danos à capacidade de competir da empresa brasileira, uma vez que a inovação tecnológica é criada muito mais na empresa do que na universidade, cuja missão específica é educar profissionais e gerar conhecimentos fundamentais.

A ausência dessas medidas contribuiu para ocorrer, de 1990 até o momento, a falência de amplos setores industriais, a desindustrialização e desnacionalização da economia brasileira. A desnacionalização da economia brasileira é evidenciada quando se observa que, das 50 maiores empresas brasileiras, 26 são estrangeiras, segundo o Censo do Capital estrangeiro no Brasil. Mais da metade das empresas brasileiras de setores de ponta (automobilístico, aeronáutica, eletroeletrônico, informática, farmacêutico, telecomunicações, agronegócio e minérios) estão nas mãos do capital estrangeiro. O capital estrangeiro está presente em 17.605 empresas brasileiras que respondem por 63% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), e tem o controle de 36% do setor bancário e possui 25% das ações do Bradesco e 20% das ações do Banco do Brasil. A subordinação do Brasil ao capital internacional no setor industrial e em outros setores da economia brasileira explica porque ele está entre os últimos países colocados em termos de inovação e porque as empresas aqui instaladas pouco contribuem para o desenvolvimento da Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (P&D).

Pelo exposto, pode-se concluir que os países do mundo devem perseguir sua autossuficiência abandonando a política atual, neoliberal e de globalização econômica e financeira, responsável pelas fragilidades econômicas globais e pela dependência em relação ao exterior, com sua substituição pelo modelo de desenvolvimento que priorize a produção no interior do país dos produtos e serviços essenciais para seu progresso econômico e social. O Brasil e todos os países atrasados do mundo só promoverão seu desenvolvimento se levarem ao fim sua dependência externa (econômica e tecnológica) em relação aos países capitalistas centrais. Realizar a ruptura econômica e tecnológica em relação aos países capitalistas centrais não significa o desenvolvimento autárquico, mas promover prioritariamente o desenvolvimento interno do país com abertura econômica seletiva em relação ao exterior como fizeram o Japão, a Coreia do Sul e a China nas décadas de 1970, 1980 e 1990, respectivamente. A ruptura da dependência significa ativa participação do Estado no planejamento da economia nacional visando o desenvolvimento das forças produtivas do país e do mercado interno, a produção interna em substituição de produtos importados e, também, para exportação, o desenvolvimento de tecnologia própria e a formação de poupança interna na quantidade necessária para não depender de capitais externos para investimento. Esta estratégia propiciaria a expansão da economia nacional com a geração de negócios e de empregos suficientes para atender as necessidades do país, além de atenuar o impacto das crises que ocorram na economia mundial em consequência da guerra comercial desencadeada pelos Estados Unidos contra a China, da possível explosão da bolha da dívida mundial e de problemas como a pandemia do coronavirus.

Só assim será possível fazer o Brasil crescer economicamente a taxas elevadas e eliminar a subutilização da força de trabalho que atinge o nível recorde de 27,7 milhões de trabalhadores, segundo a pesquisa PNAD do IBGE. No artigo de Nicola Pamplona publicado na Folha de S. Paulo em 17/5/2018, sob o título Falta trabalho para 27,7 milhões de pessoas, diz IBGE, disponível no website <https://www1-folha-uol-com-br.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www1.folha.uol.com.br/amp/mercado/2018/05/falta-trabalho-para-277-milhoes-de-pessoas-diz-ibge.shtml>, consta a informação de que a taxa de subutilização da força de trabalho, que inclui os desempregados, pessoas que gostariam de trabalhar mais e aqueles que desistiram de buscar emprego, bateu recorde no primeiro trimestre, chegando a 24,7%. Ao todo, são 27,7 milhões de pessoas nessas condições, o maior contingente desde o início da série histórica, em 2012. Destes, 13,7 milhões procuraram emprego, mas, não encontraram. O restante são subocupados por insuficiência de horas trabalhadas, pessoas que gostariam de trabalhar, mas, não procuraram emprego ou desistiram de procurar emprego. Esta situação se agravou ainda mais com a crise do coronavirus.

LE BRESIL N’EST PLUS GOUVERNÉ PAR BOLSONARO

Fernando Alcoforado *

Article de Luis Nassif, “Bolsonaro já não governa mais o Brasil, diz Luis Nassif” (Le bresil n’est plus gouverné par Bolsonaro, dit Luis Nassif), il est tout à fait évident que Bolsonaro ne gouverne plus le Brésil parce qu’il rencontre une résistance à l’intérieur et à l’extérieur du gouvernement lui-même contre son objectif de mettre fin à l’isolement social pour protéger la population brésilienne contre le Coronavirus. L’article de Nassif montre que Bolsonaro a perdu le pouvoir avec l’armée, il ne dirige plus le ministère de la Santé, ne dirige pas la zone économique du gouvernement dont les mesures prises pour soutenir les pauvres et les micro, petites et moyennes entreprises se sont déroulées à l’initiative du Congrès national qui ne correspondant pas à sa volonté, qui est que le système économique fonctionne comme avant la crise, il a perdu le soutien de l’électorat de droite plus rationnel, il a perdu le soutien de larges secteurs de la magistrature et du Congrès national et, surtout, il a reçu une opposition franche de la grande majorité des gouverneurs.

Luis Nassif déclare que Bolsonaro ne dispose que des instruments suivants pour exercer le pouvoir de président:

Accès au réseau national pour les prises de position.
Le réseau de fausses nouvelles du bureau de la haine.
Les grognements du général Augusto Heleno, probablement le militaire le plus incompétent qui a occupé l’espace public.

Selon Nassif, il y aura deux autres mouvements prévisibles pour Bolsonaro et ses enfants qui font partie du bureau de la haine. Du côté de Bolsonaros, la non-conformité à la situation entraînera la pratique de nouveaux délits virtuels. Du côté des organes d’enquête, l’accélération des enquêtes sur leurs enfants. S’il s’agissait d’un groupe minimalement rationnel, les Bolsonaros ramasseraient leurs armes et tenteraient de se reconstituer pour une nouvelle confrontation plus tard. Mais ils sont trop rudes. Acculés, ils auront tendance à doubler la mise.
Nassif dit qu’il y aura inévitablement un choc final, dans lequel Bolsonaro tentera d’incendier le pays impliquant des bases de la police militaire, les camionneurs qui lui sont liés (qui ne sont pas majoritaires dans la classe) et des groupes plus alliés, déjà vidés. Nous avons maintenant une hyène édentée. Ce qui va désormais se passer a une certitude et une inconnue. La certitude est la fin de son pouvoir de président. L’inconnu est de savoir comment il sera retiré du pouvoir. Quand il quitte le pouvoir, c’est une question de temps avant que lui et sa famille soient jugés par les tribunaux nationaux et internationaux et que justice soit rendue quelques décennies plus tard: il aurait dû être arrêté au moment de son expulsion de l’armée.

Pour lire l’article de Luis Nassif “Bolsonaro já não governa mais o Brasil, diz Luis Nassif” (Le bresil n’est plus gouverné par Bolsonaro), accédez au site: <https://www.brasil247.com/brasil/bolsonaro-ja-nao-governa-mais-o-brasil-diz -luis-nassif>.

BOLSONARO IS NO LONGER GOVERNING BRAZIL

Fernando Alcoforado*

Luis Nassif’s article, “Bolsonaro já não governa mais o Brasil, diz Luis Nassif” (Bolsonaro no longer rules Brazil, says Luis Nassif), makes it quite evident that Bolsonaro no longer governs Brazil because he encounters resistance inside and outside the government itself against his purpose of ending social isolation to protect the Brazilian population from Coronavirus. Nassif’s article shows that Bolsonaro lost power with the military, he no longer runs the Ministry of Health, does not run the government’s economic area whose actions taken to support the poor and micro, small and medium-sized companies that took place at the initiative of the National Congress not responding to his will, which is for the economic system to operate as before the crisis, he lost support to the more rational right-wing electorate, he lost support from broad sectors of the Judiciary and the National Congress and, above all, he received frank opposition from the overwhelming majority of governors.

Luis Nassif states that Bolsonaro has only the following instruments for exercising the power of President:

Access to the national network for pronouncements.
The network of fake News from hate office
The grumbles of General Augusto Heleno, probably the most inept military man who has passed through the public area.

According to Nassif, there will be two more predictable movements for Bolsonaro and his children who are part of the hate office. On the Bolsonaros side, the non-conformity with the situation that will result in the practice of new virtual crimes. On the side of the investigative bodies, the acceleration of inquiries about their children. If it were a minimally rational group, the Bolsonaros would collect their weapons and try to compose themselves for a new confrontation later on. But they are too rough. Cornered, they will tend to double the bet.

Nassif says there will inevitably be a final shock, in which Bolsonaro will try to conflagrate the country involving bases of the Military Police, the truckers connected to him (who are not a majority in the class) and more allied groups, already emptied. We now have a toothless hyena. What will happen from now on has a certainty and an unknown. The certainty is the end of his power as president. The unknown is how it will be taken from power. Leaving power, it is a matter of time before he and his family are tried by national courts and international courts and justice is done a few decades late: he should have been arrested at the time he was expelled from the army.

To read Luis Nassif’s article “Bolsonaro já não governa mais o Brasil, diz Luis Nassif” (Bolsonaro no longer rules Brazil, says Luis Nassif), access the website: <https://www.brasil247.com/brasil/bolsonaro-ja-nao-governa-mais-o-brasil-diz -luis-nassif>.

BOLSONARO JÁ NÃO MAIS GOVERNA O BRASIL

Fernando Alcoforado*

Artigo de Luis Nassif, “Bolsonaro já não governa mais o Brasil, diz Luis Nassif”, deixa bastante evidenciado que Bolsonaro já não mais governa o Brasil porque encontra resistência dentro e fora do próprio governo contra o seu propósito de acabar com o isolamento social para proteção da população brasileira do Coronavirus. O artigo de Nassif mostra que Bolsonaro perdeu poder junto aos militares, já não manda no Ministério das Saúde, não manda na área econômica do governo cujas ações adotadas de apoio às populações pobres e às micro, pequena e média empresas ocorreram por iniciativa do Congresso Nacional não correspondendo à sua vontade que é a do sistema econômico operar como antes da crise, perdeu apoio junto ao eleitorado de direita mais racional, perdeu apoio de amplos setores do Poder Judiciário e do Congresso Nacional e, sobretudo, recebeu franca oposição da maioria esmagadora dos governadores.

Luis Nassif afirma que Bolsonaro tem apenas os seguintes instrumentos de exercício do poder de Presidente:

O acesso a rede nacional para pronunciamentos.
A rede de fake News do gabinete do ódio.
Os resmungos do general Augusto Heleno, provavelmente o mais inepto militar que já passou pela área pública.

Segundo Nassif, haverá mais dois movimentos previsíveis para Bolsonaro e seus filhos que integram o gabinete do ódio. Do lado dos Bolsonaros, o inconformismo com a situação que resultará na prática em novos crimes virtuais. Do lado dos órgãos de investigação, a aceleração dos inquéritos sobre seus filhos. Fosse um grupo minimamente racional, os Bolsonaros recolheriam as armas e tentariam se recompor para um novo confronto mais adiante. Mas são toscos demais. Acuados, tenderão a dobrar a aposta.

Nassif afirma que haverá inevitavelmente o choque final, no qual os Bolsonaro tentarão conflagrar o País envolvendo bases das Polícias Militares, os caminhoneiros ligados a ele (que não são maioria na classe) e mais grupos aliados, já esvaziados. Tem-se, agora, uma hiena desdentada. O que irá acontecer daqui para diante tem uma certeza e uma incógnita. A certeza é do fim de seu poder como presidente. A incógnita é a maneira como será tirado do poder. Deixando o poder, é questão de tempo para que ele e a família sejam julgados por tribunais nacionais e cortes internacionais e se faça Justiça com algumas décadas de atraso: ele deveria ter sido preso no momento em que foi expulso do Exército.

Para ler o artigo de Luis Nassif “Bolsonaro já não governa mais o Brasil, diz Luis Nassif”, acessar o website: <https://www.brasil247.com/brasil/bolsonaro-ja-nao-governa-mais-o-brasil-diz -luis-nassif>.

LE MONDE APRÈS CORONAVIRUS

Fernando Alcoforado*

La propagation du coronavirus dans le monde contribuera à des changements importants à court et à long terme dans les systèmes de santé, dans les villes, dans le monde du travail, dans le système éducatif, dans les transports publics, dans les relations sociales, dans le tourisme, dans la société, dans le processus de la mondialisation et l’action des gouvernements du monde entier. Le monde ne sera plus le même. Nous devons nous préparer pour l’avenir à venir. Les 11 principaux changements qui auront un impact sur le présent et l’avenir sont décrits ci-dessous:

1) Changements dans les systèmes de santé

La pandémie de coronavirus a montré la fragilité de l’infrastructure sanitaire avec insuffisance en capacité hospitalière et en postes de santé et en ressources humaines spécialisées dans plusieurs pays du monde. En outre, l’incapacité des institutions de recherche médicale à prévoir l’émergence de nouveaux virus tels que le Coronavirus afin de préparer les systèmes de santé avec de nouveaux médicaments et vaccins à cette fin a également été mise en évidence. Les vaccins font bouger les fortunes. Sa découverte, cependant, n’est pas immédiate. Dans l’intervalle de temps entre la propagation de la contagion avec un nouveau virus et sa prophylaxie complète, les conséquences peuvent être dévastatrices. Pour aggraver les choses, rien ne garantit que des médicaments émergeront capables d’immuniser l’humanité contre toutes les maladies causées par des virus. Une telle incertitude peut rapidement devenir une panique. C’est ce qui s’est produit avec la récente épidémie du nouveau Coronavirus (2019-nCoV ou Covid-19). Pour changer cette réalité et l’humanité n’est pas surprise par les nouveaux virus, comme c’était désormais le cas du Coronavirus, il est nécessaire de mettre en place des infrastructures de santé de capacité suffisante dans tous les pays disposant d’hôpitaux et de postes de santé, ainsi que d’investir massivement dans la recherche et développement visant à la fabrication de médicaments et vaccins capables de lutter contre les virus actuels et futurs.

2) Changements dans les villes

La population mondiale correspond actuellement à 7,7 milliards d’habitants et celle qui vit aujourd’hui dans les villes compte 4 milliards d’habitants, la grande majorité d’entre eux vivant dans des conditions sociales terribles caractérisées par un chômage élevé, l’existence de bidonvilles peuplés, de logements et de sans-abri, manque d’assainissement de base adéquat, précaire système de collecte, transport et élimination finale des déchets solides, moche services de transport public, pollution incontrôlable de l’eau, du sol et de l’air, préparation inadéquate des infrastructures urbaines face aux inondations et insuffisance des infrastructures de la santé. La grande majorité des villes du monde sont propices à la propagation à grande échelle de virus, comme le Coronavirus, en raison de la concentration de la population et des mauvaises conditions sanitaires de la majorité de sa population. Pour changer radicalement cette réalité, devra être adopté, dans le monde entier, la politique universelle de revenu de base pour les chômeurs et les pauvres qui vivent dans des bidonvilles et des logements et les sans-abri, réurbanisation des taudis et / ou relocalisation des populations des zones critiques et investissements massifs dans l’assainissement de base, dans la collecte, le transport et l’élimination finale des déchets solides, dans les infrastructures de transports publics, dans les infrastructures urbaines pour faire face aux inondations et dans les infrastructures sanitaires. En d’autres termes, il faut une révolution urbaine à l’échelle mondiale pour protéger les populations urbaines des pandémies actuelles et futures.

3) Changements dans le monde du travail

Le monde du travail a déjà été fortement impacté par les avancées technologiques, notamment par l’intelligence artificielle, avec la robotisation de l’activité productive. Avec la propagation du Coronavirus, de nombreux emplois effectués en personne ont tendance à être exécutés par des travailleurs à domicile utilisant Internet et ses nombreuses applications et les gens commencent à acheter des produits et des services sur Internet et leurs nombreuses applications avec des fournisseurs qui les livreront à leur domicile. La conséquence de tout cela sera l’utilisation de robots pour remplacer les travailleurs de l’industrie, du commerce et des services, ce qui entraînera une croissance exponentielle du chômage, l’exécution de travaux à domicile (bureau à domicile) par certains travailleurs et la livraison de produits et services à domicile par les fournisseurs (livraison). Tout cela aura un impact sur la réduction des véhicules individuels et la demande de transports publics dans les villes, mais augmentera la circulation des motocyclistes et des drones pour fournir des produits et des services dans les villes. Pour atténuer l’impact terrible du chômage technologique et celui aggravé par le Coronavirus, il est nécessaire que les gouvernements adoptent la politique d’économie sociale et solidaire et d’économie créative et la répartition du revenu de base universel pour l’ensemble de la population.

4) Changements dans le système éducatif

L’annonce de la suspension des cours en raison de la pandémie de Coronavirus (COVID-19) laisse toute la société préoccupée par l’avenir des étudiants et, bien sûr, par les troubles d’apprentissage. Plus rapidement que nous ne le pensions, les gestionnaires publics, les organisations de la société civile et la communauté des professionnels de l’éducation ont offert la première réponse à la fermeture des écoles: l’enseignement à distance avec l’utilisation des technologies numériques. La rapidité à proposer que la technologie nous aide dans les scénarios de fermeture des écoles a à voir avec l’expérience d’autres pays où la pandémie est arrivée en premier, comme la Chine, l’Italie et la Corée du Sud. L’éducation en face à face est très importante, mais dans des situations de une pandémie comme l’enseignement à distance actuel est absolument nécessaire. L’éducation est sans aucun doute l’une des expériences humaines les plus sociales. La fermeture des écoles et la conception d’un plan d’activités pour les enfants et les enseignants à distance est donc quelque chose de complètement différent de la planification d’activités scolaires en face à face. L’une des principales préoccupations concernant les cours en ligne concerne l’équité et la qualité de l’enseignement. L’apprentissage à distance peut être utilisé pour compléter l’apprentissage ou dans des situations d’urgence dans l’enseignement primaire, secondaire, professionnel, pour les jeunes et les adultes et l’enseignement spécial et supérieur. Ces activités hors classe peuvent être officiellement organisées et validées en tant que contenu académique appliqué. Pour adopter cette modalité, les réseaux éducatifs doivent adapter la méthodologie d’enseignement aux ressources technologiques nécessaires. Les étudiants doivent recevoir un apprentissage adéquat et correct. Les écoles doivent veiller à ce que les élèves soient suivis, évalués et participent correctement. De nombreuses écoles seront beaucoup mieux en mesure de soutenir des expériences numériques que d’autres. La technologie ne fonctionne pas de la même manière pour tous les groupes d’âge. Cela n’a pas de sens des cours en ligne pour les élèves de la petite enfance qui doivent être effectuées par leurs familles avec des conseils des activités en ligne par l’école. La technologie numérique doit être utilisée selon chaque segment pour renforcer le travail pédagogique en fonction des besoins de développement de chaque âge. Très probablement, la crise du Coronavirus entraînera l’expansion de l’enseignement à distance comme alternative à l’enseignement traditionnel en face à face.

5) Changements dans les transports publics

Les transports publics sont une forme de transport existant dans les moyennes et grandes villes. Dans la plupart des villes, le principal type de véhicule utilisé est le bus, mais il existe également des métros, des trains et, dans certaines villes, des ferries, des bateaux, des hors-bords, entre autres. S’ils sont bien utilisés, les transports en commun peuvent être la principale solution aux problèmes de mobilité urbaine, tels que la congestion. Récemment, l’OMS (Organisation mondiale de la santé) a déclaré que la question des transports publics est également une question de santé publique, puisqu’un système de transport efficace diminuerait le nombre de voitures dans les villes, diminuant également les taux de pollution, d’accidents, l’inactivité physique, entre autres. Dans la grande majorité des pays du monde, les conditions de transport public sont précaires. La propagation du Coronavirus a mis en évidence la nécessité de transporter les personnes assises par les transports publics, un fait que fait de l’augmentation de la capacité du système de transport une exigence. Il faut donc qu’il y ait une politique d’investissement dans les transports publics pour augmenter sa capacité, la moderniser et garantir son accès à la population, en pluralisant les moyens de transport au-delà du bus, avec l’installation de véhicules tels que trains, métros et pistes cyclables . En plus d’augmenter la capacité du système de transports publics pour empêcher la propagation de nouveaux virus à l’avenir, permettant une distanciation sociale avec les passagers assis, une autre exigence est l’hygiène des véhicules de transport public pour protéger la santé de la population.

6) Changements dans la production alimentaire

Le Coronavirus menace de provoquer une crise alimentaire mondiale, selon l’ONU. Dans une déclaration commune, les dirigeants de trois organisations multilatérales de l’alimentation, du commerce et de la santé – la FAO, l’OMC et l’OMS – ont mis en garde contre le risque d’une crise alimentaire causée par la nouvelle pandémie de Coronavirus. Il existe un risque de «pénurie alimentaire» sur le marché mondial, en raison de perturbations dérivées du COVID-19 dans le commerce international et les chaînes d’approvisionnement. En protégeant la santé et le bien-être des citoyens, les pays doivent veiller à ce que toutes les mesures commerciales ne perturbent pas la chaîne d’approvisionnement alimentaire, ont ajouté des dirigeants de la FAO, de l’OMS et de l’OMC. Les incertitudes générées au sujet de la disponibilité des aliments peuvent déclencher une vague de restrictions sur les exportations, qui, à son tour, entraînerait sa rareté sur le marché mondial. Certains pays exportateurs de céréales peuvent conserver leurs récoltes par crainte de pénurie, tandis qu’à l’autre bout de la chaîne alimentaire mondialisée, d’autres pays plus fragiles risquent de souffrir de graves pénuries. Pour les trois organisations multilatérales, il est important de garantir les échanges, principalement pour éviter les pénuries alimentaires, notamment dans les pays les plus pauvres. Les trois organisations soulignent également la nécessité de protéger les travailleurs sur le terrain afin de minimiser la propagation du virus dans le secteur et de maintenir les chaînes d’approvisionnement alimentaire.

7) Changements dans les relations sociales

L’épidémie actuelle de coronavirus peut non seulement rendre la poignée de main obsolète, mais aussi donner naissance à de nouveaux codes et compliments, changeant la façon dont nous interagissons directement. Au lieu de serrer la main, des salutations entrent, touchant les pieds, les coudes, ou même simplement agitant ou faisant des gestes au loin sans que les mains ne se touchent. À mesure que l’épidémie progresse, en plus de la recommandation de se laver les mains pendant 20 secondes, certaines habitudes habituelles et chaleureuses devront être évitées. Les mains, après tout, peuvent transporter des restes de tout ce que nous touchons entre un lavage et l’autre, y compris le virus. Éviter de toucher une main est devenu la recommandation de l’Organisation mondiale de la santé, mais nous ne devons pas perdre nos bonnes manières et nos démonstrations d’affection et de bonheur lorsque nous rencontrons quelqu’un. Pour une agitation aussi mondiale et menaçante que le Coronavirus peut laisser des marques culturelles profondes, et même changer nos notions d’étiquette à l’avenir. Si les relations individuelles sont entravées pour lutter contre le Coronavirus, il y a une demande accrue pour qu’il n’y ait pas de foule lors d’événements sportifs, de musique et de cinéma, entre autres. Selon toute vraisemblance, il y aura une politique de réduction de la capacité d’audience des événements à l’avenir, en plus de nettoyer les lieux de l’événement afin de ne pas propager les virus actuels et futurs.

8) Changements dans le tourisme

L’industrie du tourisme favorise un flux constant de personnes à travers le monde (et même à l’extérieur de celui-ci, avec des voyages spatiaux dirigés par Virgin Galactic, par Richard Branson, et SpaceX, par Elon Musk). À l’intérieur ou à l’extérieur de l’orbite de la Terre, le tourisme génère des opportunités commerciales pour les grands conglomérats (compagnies aériennes, chaînes hôtelières, compagnies de croisières) ainsi que pour les petites entreprises, qu’il s’agisse d’agences de voyages locales, d’auberges, de restaurants ou de guides touristiques qui travaillent dans leurs communautés. En 2018, le secteur du tourisme représentait 10,4% de toute l’activité économique de la planète, générant 319 millions de nouveaux emplois (un sur cinq créés depuis 2014). Le montant total traité par cette industrie est estimé à 8,8 billions de dollars américains par an, soit presque le double du PIB japonais, qui est le quatrième au monde (4,9 billions de dollars américains en 2018). S’il s’agissait d’un pays, le tourisme arriverait au deuxième rang derrière les États-Unis (20,6 billions de dollars américains) et la Chine (11,5 billions de dollars américains). Le Coronavirus pourrait causer une perte de 1 billion de dollars au tourisme mondial. La crise actuelle est considérée comme la pire jamais connue pour le tourisme. La panique du Coronavirus laisse les villes désertes, vide les hôtels, oblige les compagnies aériennes à annuler les itinéraires et empêche les navires de croisière de débarquer des passagers. Hôtels vides, croisières en quarantaine. La préoccupation du secteur hôtelier est grande, gagnant des proportions encore plus importantes pour les croisiéristes. Le drame des passagers et de l’équipage à bord du navire Diamond Princess, qui ont été empêchés de débarquer au port de Yokohama, au Japon, a déclenché le premier avertissement concernant la destination de ceux qui voyagent actuellement en mer. L’avenir du secteur mondial du tourisme dépend du succès de la lutte contre le Coronavirus et du relèvement de l’économie mondiale.

9) Changements dans la société

L’inégalité économique et sociale est un problème social présent dans tous les pays du monde. Elle découle principalement de la mauvaise répartition des revenus et du manque d’investissement dans le domaine social, comme l’éducation et la santé. Mauvaise répartition des revenus et concentration du pouvoir, mauvaise gestion des ressources principalement publiques, logique de marché du système capitaliste (plus il y a de profit pour les entreprises et les propriétaires d’entreprises, mieux c’est), manque d’investissement dans les domaines sociaux, dans la culture, dans l’assistance pour les populations les plus pauvres, en matière de santé et l’éducation est la principale cause des inégalités économiques et sociales. Le Coronavirus tend à accroître les inégalités économiques et sociales dans le monde, aggravant les conditions sociales de la grande majorité de la population. La faim peut être endémique dans d’innombrables pays qui n’adoptent pas de politiques pour soutenir les populations vulnérables qui peuvent conduire à des pillages et à d’autres attaques dans la lutte pour leur survie. Pour éviter ce scénario, les gouvernements doivent adopter des politiques d’économie sociale et solidaire et d’économie créative pour lutter contre le chômage et le revenu de base universel afin de répondre aux besoins des populations pauvres afin de réduire les inégalités sociales et d’atténuer l’aggravation des conditions sociales de la population. Dans la mesure du possible, la social-démocratie doit être mise en œuvre de manière scandinave pour lutter contre les inégalités économiques et sociales et exercer la démocratie au plus haut degré.

10) Changements dans le processus de mondialisation

Au cours des trois dernières décennies, la mondialisation économique et financière a connu un succès retentissant, car le PIB mondial est passé de 22 000 milliards à environ 90 000 milliards de dollars. C’est aussi un fait que les pertes sociales causées par un monde plus globalisé ont été immenses. Le chômage touche des millions de travailleurs dans le monde. La mondialisation était déjà attaquée par des populistes, des terroristes, des guerriers commerciaux et des militants du climat. Maintenant, le Coronavirus est arrivé. La Conférence des Nations Unies sur le commerce et le développement prévoit une réduction de 5% à 15% des investissements étrangers directs dans le monde en 2020 en raison du Coronavirus. L’OCDE prévoit que l’impact mondial du Coronavirus devrait générer une perte de 0,5 à 1,5 point de pourcentage du PIB mondial. C’est une valeur de 500 milliards à 1,4 billion de dollars en génération de richesse qui cessera tout simplement d’exister. Le Coronavirus n’a pas de passeport, il ignore les frontières, mais il alimente également le protectionnisme et le nationalisme. Le premier impact du nouveau Coronavirus sur l’économie mondiale a été la fermeture des industries chinoises. Des voitures aux iPhones, les chaînes de production les plus variées réparties sur la planète ont commencé à subir un choc inattendu, provoqué par l’organisme microscopique qui s’était échappé du marché animal de la ville chinoise de Wuhan. La vision du nouveau virus comme un «envahisseur étranger» ou un «danger chinois» sert de nourriture aux idéologies nationalistes et même au racisme pur et simple. La pandémie a également révélé le risque de confiance dans les chaînes de production mondiales et fait revivre le protectionnisme. À mesure que le virus se propage en Europe et dans le monde, il rend la Chine un peu plus fragile et sa dépendance mondiale à son égard comme «l’usine du monde» est plus douteuse. La mondialisation de la maladie se produit avec des navires et des avions qui la propagent très rapidement sur la planète. Pour se protéger, l’impulsion immédiate des pays est de battre en retraite et de lever les barrières. Nous voyons déjà le nombre de vols chuter de façon spectaculaire. D’une certaine manière, ce virus met en évidence le déséquilibre de la mondialisation. Plus que des usines qui retournent dans leur pays d’origine, nous voyons des entreprises diversifier la chaîne d’approvisionnement afin qu’elles ne soient plus aussi dépendantes d’un pays, comme la Chine. En ce sens, le Coronavirus peut changer le cours de l’histoire. Sa propagation peut être un tournant dans les débats sur la façon dont le monde pourrait s’intégrer ou se séparer. Même avant l’arrivée du virus en Europe, le changement climatique, les problèmes de sécurité et les plaintes concernant le commerce déloyal avaient accru les inquiétudes concernant les voyages aériens mondiaux et les chaînes d’approvisionnement industrielles mondialisées, et renforcé les doutes sur la fiabilité de la Chine en tant que partenaire. Avec le nombre de personnes infectées et de morts, l’impact économique est redimensionné à chaque nouveau signe que cette crise est plus profonde qu’on ne le pensait. Afin d’atténuer l’impact négatif du Coronavirus sur la mondialisation, un pacte international doit être signé par le biais des Nations Unies et des organisations mondiales visant à reconstruire l’économie mondiale sur de nouvelles bases car la mondialisation qui a fonctionné jusqu’à l’avènement du Coronavirus est terminée.

11) Changements dans l’action gouvernementale

Les gouvernements doivent agir pour minimiser le nombre de décès dus au coronavirus en adoptant un isolement social total de la population, en évitant l’effondrement du système de santé, en maintenant des activités économiques essentielles et en prenant des mesures au profit des chômeurs et des pauvres de ne pas mourir de faim et les petites et moyennes entreprises de ne pas succomber à la crise. Ce sont des mesures indispensables à adopter lors de l’avancement du Coronavirus. Dans la lutte immédiate contre le Coronavirus, les gouvernements doivent abandonner le néolibéralisme comme modèle économique mis en œuvre depuis 1990 et adopter le keynésianisme comme politique économique avec des investissements publics massifs pour éviter la faim des pauvres, sauver les entreprises de la débâcle économique et maintenir le fonctionnement du système économique.

Les mesures immédiates pour éviter la famine des populations pauvres pendant la propagation du Coronavirus sont l’adoption d’un programme de revenu de base ou d’un revenu minimum universel pour la population. Donner de l’argent gratuit à tous, c’est-à-dire un programme de revenu minimum universel, permettrait de réduire ou d’éliminer la pauvreté. L’une des raisons pour que cette idée devienne réalité réside dans le fait que la distribution d’argent réduit la criminalité, améliore la santé de la population et permet à chacun d’investir en soi. L’adoption de la politique du revenu de base ou du revenu minimum universel pour la population pauvre est l’une des solutions pour réduire la pauvreté car elle permettrait aux pauvres de commencer à avoir de l’argent pour subvenir à leurs besoins de base en termes de nourriture, santé, logement, etc. Il est important de noter que la pauvreté est la condition de ceux qui sont pauvres, c’est-à-dire de ceux qui n’ont pas les conditions de base pour garantir leur survie avec qualité de vie et dignité. En disposant d’un revenu de base, la population pauvre pourra subvenir à ses besoins essentiels. Pour sauver les entreprises de la débâcle économique, les gouvernements devraient arrêter le paiement des taxes et accordent des crédits à faible taux d’intérêt aux entreprises à condition qu’elles maintiennent les gens dans leur travail pendant la propagation du Coronavirus.

Immédiatement après cette étape, le gouvernement doit relâcher rationnellement l’isolement social de la population selon le lieu en fonction du stade de l’épidémie dans laquelle ils se trouvent et investir massivement dans les travaux d’infrastructure sur l’ensemble du territoire national pour reconstruire le système économique pour générer des emplois et des revenus pour la population, tout en maintenant le soutien aux chômeurs et aux pauvres pour éviter la famine et les petites et moyennes entreprises pour survivre à la crise. Une fois le Coronavirus surmonté, la reconstruction ou le relèvement du système économique national viendrait avec l’adoption des mesures suivantes:

Construction d’un grand nombre de travaux publics, en mettant l’accent sur les infrastructures économiques (énergie, transports et communications) et sociales (éducation, santé, logement et assainissement de base);
Développement de l’économie sociale et solidaire pour lutter contre le chômage;
Concession du revenu de base ou universel aux populations d’extrême pauvreté.

En ce qui concerne l’économie sociale et solidaire, il est important de noter qu’elle est l’une des solutions pour atténuer le problème du chômage et ouvrir la voie à inventer à l’avenir d’autres modes de production et de consommation contribuant à une plus grande cohésion sociale. L’économie sociale et solidaire est un nouveau modèle de développement économique, social, politique et environnemental qui a une manière différente de générer du travail et des revenus, dans différents secteurs, que ce soit dans les banques communautaires, les coopératives de crédit, les coopératives agricoles familiales, question du commerce équitable, dans les clubs d’échange, etc. L’économie sociale et solidaire constitue une nouvelle façon d’organiser le travail et les activités économiques en général, émergeant comme une alternative importante pour l’inclusion des travailleurs sur le marché du travail, leur donnant une nouvelle opportunité grâce à l’autogestion. Sur la base de l’économie sociale et solidaire, il y a la possibilité de récupérer les entreprises en faillite, et de les poursuivre, avec un nouveau mode de production, dans lequel la maximisation du profit n’est plus l’objectif principal, donnant lieu à la maximisation de la quantité et la qualité du travail.

L’économie sociale et solidaire est une alternative possible pour générer des emplois pour les travailleurs qui sont pour la plupart exclus du marché du travail formel et de la consommation. L’économie sociale et solidaire est apparue dans diverses parties du monde avec des pratiques de relations économiques et sociales qui favorisent la survie et améliorent la qualité de vie de millions de personnes. Ces pratiques sont basées sur des relations de collaboration solidaires, inspirées des valeurs culturelles qui placent l’être humain comme sujet et finalité de l’activité économique, plutôt que de l’accumulation privée de richesse en général et de capital en particulier. On peut dire que l’adoption de l’économie sociale et solidaire est, sans aucun doute, la solution qui permettrait de faire face au chômage de masse qui croît de façon vertigineuse au Brésil. À son tour, la politique du revenu de base ou le revenu minimum universel pour la population est l’une des solutions pour réduire la pauvreté.

THE WORLD AFTER CORONAVIRUS

Fernando Alcoforado*

The spread of Coronavirus around the world will contribute to significant changes in the near and long term in health systems, in cities, in the world of work, in the education system, in public transport, in social relations, in tourism, in society, in the process of globalization and in the action of governments around the world. The world will no longer be the same. We need to prepare for the future to come. The 11 main changes that will affect the present and the future are described below:

1) Changes in health systems

The Coronavirus pandemic highlighted the fragility of the health infrastructure with insufficient hospital capacity and health posts and specialized human resources in several countries around the world. In addition, the inability of medical research institutions to foresee the emergence of new viruses such as Coronavirus in order to prepare health systems with new drugs and vaccines for this purpose was also evidenced. Vaccines move fortunes. Its discovery, however, is not immediate. In the time gap between the spread of contagion with a new virus and its complete prophylaxis, the consequences can be devastating. To make matters worse, there is no guarantee that drugs will emerge capable of immunizing humanity from all diseases caused by viruses. Such uncertainty can quickly turn into a panic. This is what has been happening with the recent outbreak of the new Coronavirus (2019-nCoV or Covid-19). In order to change this reality and humanity not to be surprised by new viruses, as it was now by the Coronavirus, it is necessary to implement health infrastructures with sufficient capacity in all countries with hospitals and health posts, as well as invest heavily in research and development aimed at the manufacture of medicines and vaccines capable of combating current and future viruses.

2) Changes in cities

The world population currently corresponds to 7.7 billion inhabitants and the one that lives in cities today totals 4 billion inhabitants with the vast majority of them living in terrible social conditions characterized by high unemployment, existence of populous slums, tenements and homeless people, lack of adequate basic sanitation, precarious collection, transportation and final disposal of solid waste, precarious public transport services, uncontrollable pollution of water, soil and air, the unpreparedness of urban infrastructure to face floods and the insufficient health infrastructure. The vast majority of cities in the world are conducive to the large-scale spread of viruses, such as the Coronavirus, due to the population concentration and the poor health conditions of the majority of its population. To radically change this reality, it will have to be adopted worldwide the universal basic income policy for the unemployed and poor living in slums and tenements and homeless people and massive investment in basic sanitation, in the collection, transport and final disposal of solid waste, in the public transport infrastructure, in the urban infrastructure to face floods and in the health infrastructure. In other words, there needs to be an urban revolution on a global scale to protect city populations from current and future pandemics.

3) Changes in the world of work

The world of work has already been greatly impacted by technological advances, especially by artificial intelligence, with the robotization of productive activity. With the spread of Coronavirus, there is a tendency for many jobs to be performed by workers in their homes using the internet and its numerous applications and people do not move to make purchases of goods and start ordering products and services over the internet and their numerous applications with suppliers who will deliver them to their homes. The consequence of all this will be the use of robots to replace workers in industry, commerce and services, which will result in the exponential growth of unemployment, the performance of work in their own homes (home working) by some workers and the delivery of products and services in homes by suppliers (delivery). All of this will impact the reduction of individual motor vehicles and the demand for public transport in cities, but will increase the circulation of motorcyclists and drones to deliver products and services in cities. To mitigate the terrible impact of technological unemployment and that aggravated by the Coronavirus, it is necessary that governments adopt the policy of social and solidarity economy and creative economy and the distribution of universal basic income for the entire population.

4) Changes in the education system

The announcement of the suspension of classes due to the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) leaves the whole society concerned about the future of students and, of course, about learning disabilities. Faster than we thought, public managers, civil society organizations and the community of education professionals offered the first response to the closure of schools: distance education with the use of digital technologies. The speed in proposing that technology helps us in school closure scenarios has to do with the experience of other countries where the pandemic arrived first, such as China, Italy and South Korea. Face-to-face education is very important, but in situations of pandemic like the current distance education is absolutely necessary. Education is undoubtedly one of the most social human experiences. Closing schools and designing an activity plan for children and teachers at a distance is, therefore, something completely different from planning face-to-face school activities. One of the main concerns around online classes has to do with equity and quality of teaching. Distance learning can be used to complement learning or in emergency situations in elementary, high school, vocational, youth and adult and special education and higher education. These non-classroom activities can be officially organized and validated as applied academic content. In order to adopt this modality, the education networks need to adapt the teaching methodology to the necessary technological resources. Students must receive adequate and correct learning. Schools must ensure that students are monitored, evaluated and participate correctly. Many schools will be much better able to support digital experiences than others. Technology does not work the same for all age groups. It does not make sense for online classes for early childhood students that must be held by their families with guidance for online activities by the school. Digital technology should be used according to each segment to strengthen the pedagogical work according to the development needs of each age. Most likely, the Coronavirus crisis will cause distance education to expand as an alternative to traditional face-to-face education.

5) Changes in public transport

Public transport is a form of transportation existing in medium and large cities. In most cities, the main type of vehicle used is the bus, but there are also subways, trains and, in some cities, ferries, boats, speedboats, among others. If used well, public transport can be the main solution to urban mobility problems, such as congestion. Recently, the WHO (World Health Organization) stated that the issue of public transport is also a matter of public health, since an efficient transport system would decrease the number of cars in cities, also decreasing the rates of pollution, accidents, physical inactivity, among others. In the vast majority of countries in the world, public transport conditions are precarious. The spread of the Coronavirus has highlighted the need for people to be transported seated by public transport, a fact that makes increasing the capacity of the transport system a requirement. It is necessary, therefore, that there be a policy of investments in public transport to increase its capacity, modernize it and guarantee its access to the population, pluralizing the means of transport beyond the bus, with the installation of vehicles such as trains, subways and cycle paths. In addition to increasing the capacity of the public transport system to prevent the spread of new viruses in the future, enabling social distance with seated passengers, another requirement is the hygiene of public transport vehicles to safeguard the health of the population.

6) Changes in food production

Coronavirus threatens to cause global food crisis, according to the UN. In a joint statement, the leaders of three multilateral food, trade and health organizations – FAO, WTO and WHO – warned of the risk of a food crisis caused by the new Coronavirus pandemic. There is a risk of “food shortages” on the world market, due to disruptions derived from COVID-19 in international trade and supply chains. By protecting the health and well-being of citizens, countries must ensure that all trade measures do not disrupt the food supply chain, added FAO, WHO and WTO officials. The uncertainties generated about the availability of food can trigger a wave of restrictions on exports, which, in turn, would cause its scarcity in the world market. Some grain-exporting countries may retain their crops for fear of scarcity, while at the other end of the globalized food chain other more fragile countries are at risk of serious shortages. For the three multilateral organizations, it is important to guarantee trade, mainly to avoid food shortages, especially in the poorest countries. The three organizations also highlight the need to protect workers in the field in order to minimize the spread of the virus in the sector and maintain food supply chains.

7) Changes in social relations

The current Coronavirus epidemic may not only be making the handshake obsolete, but also giving birth to new codes and compliments, changing the way we directly relate. Instead of shaking hands, greetings come in, touching the feet, the elbows, or even just waving or gesturing in the distance without the hands touching. As the epidemic advances, in addition to the recommendation to wash your hands for 20 seconds, some customary and warm habits will have to be avoided. Hands, after all, can carry scraps of everything we touch between one wash and the other, including the virus. Avoiding touching one hand has become the recommendation of the World Health Organization, but we should not lose our good manners and displays of affection and happiness when meeting someone. For such a global and threatening turmoil as the Coronavirus can leave deep cultural marks, and even change our notions of etiquette in the future. If individual relationships are being impeded to fight Coronavirus, there is a greater demand that there should be no crowds at sporting events, music and cinema, among others. In all likelihood, there will be a policy of reducing the audience capacity at events in the future, in addition to cleaning the event venues so as not to spread current and future viruses.

8) Changes in tourism

The tourism industry promotes a steady flow of people across the globe (and even outside of it, with space travel captained by Virgin Galactic, by Richard Branson, and SpaceX, by Elon Musk). Inside or outside the Earth’s orbit, tourism generates business opportunities for both large conglomerates (airlines, hotel chains, cruise lines) as well as small businesses, whether local travel agencies, inns, restaurants or tour guides who work in their communities. The tourism sector accounted, in 2018, for 10.4% of all economic activity on the planet, generating 319 million new jobs (one in five of those created since 2014). The total amount handled by this industry is estimated at US$ 8.8 trillion a year – almost double the Japanese GDP, which is the fourth in the world (US$ 4.9 trillion in 2018). If it were a country, tourism would be second only to the United States (US$ 20.6 trillion) and China (US$ 11.5 trillion). Coronavirus can cause harm US$ 1 trillion on global tourism. The current crisis is considered the worst of all time for tourism. Coronavirus panic leaves cities deserted, empties hotels, forces airlines to cancel routes and prevents cruise ships from disembarking passengers. Empty hotels, quarantined cruises. The concern of the hotel sector is great, gaining even greater proportions for cruise operators. The drama of passengers and crew aboard the ship Diamond Princess, who were prevented from disembarking at the port of Yokohama, in Japan, ignited the first warning about the destination of those who are currently traveling at sea. The future of the global tourism sector depends on success in the fight against Coronavirus and the recovery of the global economy.

9) Changes in society

Economic and social inequality is a social problem present in all countries of the world. It stems mainly from the poor distribution of income and the lack of investment in the social area, such as education and health. Poor distribution of income and concentration of power, mismanagement of mainly public resources, market logic of the capitalist system (the more profit for companies and business owners, the better), lack of investment in social areas, in culture, in assistance to poorer populations, in health and education are the main causes of economic and social inequality. Coronavirus tends to increase economic and social inequalities around the world, worsening the social conditions of the vast majority of the population. Hunger can be rampant in countless countries that do not adopt policies to support vulnerable populations that can lead to looting and other attacks in the struggle for their survival. To avoid this scenario, governments need to adopt policies of social and solidarity economy and creative economy to combat unemployment and universal basic income to meet the needs of poor populations in order to reduce social inequalities and mitigate the worsening social conditions of the population. Where possible, social democracy must be implemented in Scandinavian ways to combat economic and social inequalities and exercise democracy to the highest degree.

10) Changes in the globalization process

Over the past three decades, economic and financial globalization has been a resounding success because global GDP has gone from 22 trillion to about 90 trillion dollars. It is also a fact that the social losses caused by a more globalized world were immense. Unemployment affects millions of workers worldwide. Globalization was already under attack by populists, terrorists, commercial warriors and climate activists. Now, the Coronavirus has arrived. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development foresees a 5% to 15% reduction in foreign direct investments in the world in 2020 due to the Coronavirus. The OECD projects that the global impact of the Coronavirus should generate a loss of 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points of global GDP. It is a value of 500 billion to 1.4 trillion dollars in wealth generation that will simply cease to exist. Coronavirus does not have a passport, it ignores borders, but it also fuels protectionism and nationalism. The first impact of the new Coronavirus on the global economy was the shutdown of Chinese industries. From cars to iPhones, the most varied production chains spread across the planet began to suffer an unexpected shock, caused by the microscopic organism that escaped from the animal market in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The vision of the new virus as a “foreign invader” or a “Chinese danger” serves as food for nationalist ideologies and even pure and simple racism. The pandemic also revealed the risk of confidence in global production chains and brought protectionism back to life. As the virus spreads to Europe and the world, it makes China a little more fragile and its worldwide dependence on it as ‘the factory in the world’ more doubtful. The globalization of the disease happens with ships and airplanes that spread it very quickly on the planet. To protect themselves, the immediate impulse of countries is to retreat and raise barriers. We already see flight numbers dropping dramatically. In a way, this virus highlights the imbalance in globalization. More than factories returning to their country of origin, we see companies diversifying the supply chain so that they are no longer as dependent on a country, like China. In that sense, the Coronavirus can change the course of history. Its spread can be a turning point in debates about how much the world could integrate or separate. Even before the virus’s arrival in Europe, climate change, security concerns and complaints about unfair trade had heightened anxieties about global air travel and globalized industrial supply chains, and reinforced doubts about the reliability of China as a partner. Along with the number of infected and dead, the economic impact is resized with each new sign that this crisis is deeper than previously thought. In order to mitigate the negative impact of Coronavirus on globalization, an international pact must be signed through the UN and global organizations aimed at rebuilding the world economy on new bases because the globalization that operated until the advent of Coronavirus has ended.

11) Changes in government action

Governments must act to minimize the number of deaths from Coronavirus by adopting total social isolation from the population, avoiding the collapse of the health system, maintaining essential economic activities and adopting measures to benefit the unemployed and the poor so as not to die of hunger and small and medium-sized enterprises in order not to succumb to the crisis. These are indispensable measures to be adopted during the advancement of Coronavirus. In the immediate fight against Coronavirus, governments must abandon neoliberalism as an economic model implemented since 1990 and adopt Keynesianism as an economic policy with massive public investments to avoid hunger for the poor, save companies from the economic debacle and maintain the operation of the economic system.

The immediate measures to avoid starvation of poor populations during the spread of the coronavirus are the adoption of a basic income program or universal minimum income for the population. Giving free money to everyone, that is, a universal minimum income program would make it possible to alleviate or eliminate poverty. Among the reasons for this idea to become reality, lies in the fact that distributing money reduces crime, improves the health of the population and allows everyone to invest in themselves. The adoption of the basic income policy or universal minimum income for the poor population is one of the solutions to alleviate poverty, since it would allow the poor to start having money to meet their basic needs in terms of food, health, housing, etc. It is important to note that poverty is the condition of those who are poor, that is, those who do not have the basic conditions to guarantee their survival with quality of life and dignity. By having a basic income, the poor population will be able to meet their basic needs. To save companies from the economic debacle, governments should stop paying taxes and grant low-interest credit to companies on condition that they keep jobs during the spread of Coronavirus.

Right after this stage, the government should rationally relax the population’s social isolation by locality according to the stage of the epidemic in which they find themselves and invest heavily in infrastructure works throughout the national territory to rebuild the economic system to generate jobs and income for the population, while maintaining support for the unemployed and the poor to avoid starvation and small and medium-sized enterprises to survive the crisis. Once the Coronavirus was overcome, the reconstruction of the national economic system would come with the adoption of the following measures:

Construction of a large number of public works, with emphasis on the economic (energy, transport and communications) and social (education, health, housing and basic sanitation) infrastructure;
Development of the social and solidarity economy to combat unemployment;
Concession of basic or universal income to populations of extreme poverty.

Regarding the Social and Solidarity Economy, it is important to note that it is one of the solutions to mitigate the problem of unemployment and to open the way to invent in the future other ways of producing and consuming contributing to greater social cohesion. The Social and Solidarity Economy is a new model of economic, social, political and environmental development that has a different way of generating work and income, in different sectors, be it community banks, credit unions, family farming cooperatives, fair trade issue, in exchange clubs, etc. The Social and Solidarity Economy constitutes a new way of organizing work and economic activities in general, emerging as an important alternative for the inclusion of workers in the labor market, giving them a new opportunity through self-management. Based on the Social and Solidarity Economy, there is the possibility of recovering companies in bankruptcy, and to continue them, with a new mode of production, in which the maximization of profit is no longer the main objective, giving rise to the maximization of the quantity and the quality of work.

The Social and Solidarity Economy is a possible alternative to generate employment for workers who are mostly excluded from the formal labor market and consumption. The Social and Solidarity Economy emerged in various parts of the world with practices of economic and social relations that are promoting the survival and the improvement of the quality of life of millions of people. These practices are based on solidary collaborative relationships, inspired by cultural values that place the human being as the subject and purpose of economic activity, rather than the private accumulation of wealth in general and capital in particular. It can be said that the adoption of the Social and Solidarity Economy is, without a doubt, the solution that would allow facing the mass unemployment that will grow in the world. In turn, the basic income policy or universal minimum income for the population is one of the solutions to alleviate poverty.