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CORONAVIRUS AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEBACLE IN BRAZIL

Fernando Alcoforado*

Brazil is on the verge of bankruptcy because it is about to plunge into the most serious economic crisis of the past 90 years. The bankruptcy and default of companies that are currently registered aggravate the economic crisis in Brazil. Many small and medium-sized companies, which closed their doors since 2015 with the restriction of credit and the fall in demand, will likely go to bankrupt with government measures restricting economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. In addition, several large companies are also likely to go bankrupt with massive layoffs and rising defaults.

Many people in Brazil are indebted to banks (car and property financing), retail and consumer accounts (electricity, water, telephone) in arrears. Mass unemployment explains the increase in indebtedness among people in Brazil. The trend is that defaults continue to rise among companies and among individuals as a result of the economic recession that will be further aggravated by government measures restricting economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. With the drop in sales and the increase in unemployment there will be no change in this scenario of indebtedness of companies and people.

Brazil is a country that has its economic system in a terminal stage due to the vertiginous wave of mass unemployment and the widespread bankruptcy of companies aggravated by government measures that restrict economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that contribute to lead Brazil to depression economic which can cause a social upheaval unprecedented in the history of the country. This social upheaval will result from the worsening economic situation of the vast majority of the Brazilian population, especially the poorest. Hunger, which is present in the majority of the Brazilian population, tends to increase with the vertiginous retraction of economic activity resulting from the measures adopted by governments at all levels to combat the coronavirus.

The Bolsonaro government’s measures to help the most vulnerable populations and maintain jobs with resources in the order of R$ 140 billion are palliative because they are insufficient to meet the needs of the vast majority of the Brazilian population in the current situation of the spread of the coronavirus. It will be very difficult for appropriate measures to be adopted in Brazil to alleviate the situation of the poor, because the financial situation of the federal government, state governments and city halls is already being severely compromised by the sharp drop in tax revenues resulting from the retraction of economic activity in Brazil. since 2015.

Unfortunately, everything that has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government under the incompetent direction of Jair Bolsonaro who does not have the political leadership or the administrative capacity necessary to carry out the transformations required for Brazil in the current term. The insufficiency of public resources to face the current economic crisis aggravated by the coronavirus is added to the existence of a government team unable to solve the country’s gigantic problems.

To avoid the political, economic and social hecatomb that threatens Brazil, the union of the Brazilian nation is urgent, not only in the fight against the coronavirus, but, above all, around a common development project. Everything suggests that if Jair Bolsonaro is not removed from power through impeachment for the countless crimes of responsibility that he has been practicing systematically, Brazil could be the stage of social upheaval that could lead the country to a civil war never occurred in Brazil with unpredictable consequences aggravated by the famine that will cause political and social violence to reach alarming levels. It is necessary to consider that the hunger felt by the people was a decisive factor for the outbreak of the French Revolution of 1789 and the Russian Revolution of 1917. This is the risk that threatens Brazilian society. Therefore, Brazil is experiencing decisive moments in its history.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

CORONAVIRUS E DEBACLE ECONÔMICA E SOCIAL NO BRASIL

Fernando Alcoforado*

O Brasil está à beira da falência porque está prestes a mergulhar na mais grave crise econômica dos últimos 90 anos. A falência e a inadimplência de empresas que se registra no momento agravam a crise econômica no Brasil. Muitas empresas de pequeno e médio porte, que fecharam suas portas desde 2015 com a restrição do crédito e a queda da demanda, deverão ser levadas à bancarrota com as medidas governamentais restritivas da atividade econômica para evitar a disseminação do coronavirus. Além disso, várias empresas de grande porte deverão, também, ser levadas à falência com demissões em massa e inadimplência em alta.

Muitas pessoas no Brasil estão endividadas com bancos (financiamento de carros e imóveis), com o varejo e com contas de consumo (luz, água, telefone) em atraso de pagamentos. O desemprego em massa explica o aumento do endividamento entre as pessoas físicas no Brasil. A tendência é a de que a inadimplência continue subindo entre empresas e entre as pessoas físicas em consequência da recessão econômica que se agravará ainda mais com as medidas governamentais restritivas da atividade econômica para evitar a disseminação do coronavirus. Com a queda nas vendas e o aumento do desemprego não haverá mudança nesse cenário de endividamento de empresas e pessoas físicas.

O Brasil é um país que tem seu sistema econômico em estágio terminal devido à vertiginosa onda de desemprego em massa e a falência generalizada de empresas agravadas com as medidas governamentais restritivas da atividade econômica para evitar a disseminação do coronavirus que contribuem para levar o Brasil à depressão econômica da qual pode ocasionar uma convulsão social sem precedentes na história do País. Esta convulsão social resultará do agravamento da situação econômica da grande maioria da população brasileira especialmente dos mais pobres. A fome, que se faz presente na maioria da população brasileira tende a se avolumar com a vertiginosa retração da atividade econômica resultante das medidas adotadas pelos governos em todos os níveis para combater o coronavirus.

As medidas do governo Bolsonaro de ajuda às populações mais vulneráveis e à manutenção de empregos com recursos da ordem de R$ 140 bilhões são paliativas porque são insuficientes para atender as necessidades da grande maioria da população brasileira na conjuntura atual de disseminação do coronavirus. Muito dificilmente, serão adotadas medidas adequadas no Brasil para minorar a situação dos pobres porque a situação financeira do governo federal, dos governos estaduais e prefeituras municipais já está sendo bastante comprometida com a queda vertiginosa da arrecadação de impostos resultante da retração da atividade econômica do Brasil desde 2015.

Lamentavelmente, tudo o que acaba de ser descrito coincide com a existência de um governo fraco sob a direção incompetente de Jair Bolsonaro que não possui a liderança política nem a capacidade administrativa necessária para realizar as transformações exigidas para o Brasil na quadra atual. A insuficiência de recursos públicos para fazer frente à crise econômica atual agravada pelo coronavirus se soma à existência de uma equipe de governo incapaz de solucionar os gigantescos problemas do País.

Para evitar a hecatombe política, econômica e social que ameaça o Brasil, urge a união da nação brasileira, não apenas no combate ao coronavirus, mas, sobretudo, em torno de um projeto comum de desenvolvimento. Tudo leva a crer que se Jair Bolsonaro não for destituído do poder através de impeachment pelos inúmeros crimes de responsabilidade que vem praticando sistematicamente, o Brasil poderá enfrentar uma convulsão social que pode levar o País a uma guerra civil nunca ocorrida em sua história de consequências imprevisíveis agravada pela fome que fará com que a violência política e social alcance níveis alarmantes. É preciso considerar que a fome sentida pelo povo foi fator decisivo para a eclosão da Revolução Francesa de 1789 e da Revolução Russa de 1917. Este é o risco que ameaça a sociedade brasileira. O Brasil vive, portanto, momentos decisivos em sua história.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, condecorado com a Medalha do Mérito da Engenharia do Sistema CONFEA/CREA, membro da Academia Baiana de Educação, engenheiro e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) e Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

LA PROPOSITION ÉCONOMIQUE INEFFICACE DU MINISTRE PAULO GUEDES DE SURMONTER LA CRISE ÉCONOMIQUE DU BRÉSIL AVEC LE CORONAVIRUS

Fernando Alcoforado*

Le ministre de l’Économie du gouvernement de Bolsonaro, Paulo Guedes, a annoncé des mesures d’urgence pour limiter les effets du coronavirus sur l’économie brésilienne pour les trois prochains mois, avec trois objectifs: 1) protéger la partie la plus vulnérable de la société; 2) secourir les entreprises en difficulté; et 3) renforcer les investissements dans la santé. Le total à investir correspond à R$ 147,3 avec la réaffectation des dépenses prévue dans le budget du gouvernement fédéral et le maintien du plafond des dépenses. Les rejets de ressources d’urgence sont les suivants:

Population la plus vulnérable: R$ 83,4 milliards

»Anticipation des deux tranches des 13e retraités et retraités de l’INSS, pour avril et mai: R$ 46 milliards;
»Transfert de montants non tirés du PIS / Pasep vers le FGTS, pour permettre de nouveaux retraits: R$ 21,5 milliards;
»Anticipation de la prime salariale pour juin: R$ 12,8 milliards;
»Renforcement du programme Bolsa Família, avec l’inclusion de plus d’un million de bénéficiaires: R$ 3,1 milliards;
»Réduction du plafond des intérêts salariaux, augmentation de la marge et des délais de paiement.

Maintien de l’emploi: R$ 59,4 milliards

»Report du délai de paiement FGTS de trois mois: R$ 30 milliards;

»Report de la part de l’Union dans Simples Nacional de trois mois: R$ 22,2 milliards;

»Crédit Proger / FAT pour les micro et petites entreprises: R$ 5 milliards

»Réduction de 50% des contributions de Sistema S pendant trois mois: R$ 2,2 milliards;

»Simplification des exigences pour contracter un crédit et dispenser des documents de renégociation;

Simplification du dédouanement des matières premières industrielles importées avant le débarquement.

Lutter contre la pandémie: R$ 4,5 milliards

»Destination du solde du fonds DPVAT vers SUS: R$ 4,5 milliards;

»Réduction à zéro des importations de produits à usage médical et hospitalier (jusqu’à la fin de l’année);

»Exemption temporaire de l’IPI pour les produits importés répertoriés qui sont nécessaires pour lutter contre Covid-19;

»Suspension de la preuve de vie des bénéficiaires de l’INSS pendant 120 jours.

Pourquoi cette proposition est-elle inefficace? Cette proposition est inefficace car le ministre néolibéral Paulo Guedes évite d’adopter la solution keynésienne la plus correcte pour faire face à la tendance à l’aggravation de la récession suivie d’une dépression économique qui conduira le Brésil à la faillite généralisée des entreprises, au chômage de masse et à l’insolvabilité les gouvernements fédéral, étatiques et municipaux. La solution keynésienne devrait impliquer une augmentation des dépenses du gouvernement fédéral pour compenser la forte baisse de la consommation des ménages et des investissements privés aggravée par le coronavirus et non pour maintenir le plafond de dépenses établi. Le gouvernement des États-Unis, par exemple, a l’intention d’allouer 1 billion de dollars américains pour lutter contre le coronavirus dans le pays.

La doctrine économique keynésienne est connue comme opposition à la théorie libérale en vigueur jusqu’aux années 30 du 20e siècle. Avec la doctrine économique keynésienne, l’État devrait intervenir dans l’économie chaque fois que cela est nécessaire, afin d’éviter le ralentissement économique et garantir le plein emploi. Selon Keynes, la théorie libérale-capitaliste ne fournit pas de mécanismes et d’outils capables de garantir la stabilité de l’emploi d’un pays. Ce fait est prouvé au Brésil et dans le monde avec le néolibéralisme qui prévaut. Notez le fait que le keynésianisme a été adopté par tous les gouvernements comme l’un des facteurs fondamentaux de la reprise économique qui a eu lieu dans le monde après la dépression économique mondiale qui a éclaté avec le krach de la Bourse de New York en 1929. Les principales caractéristiques Le keynésianisme est le suivant:

Défense de l’intervention de l’Etat dans des domaines où les entreprises privées ne peuvent pas ou ne veulent pas agir
Opposition au système libéral
Réduction des taux d’intérêt
Équilibre entre l’offre et la demande
Assurer le plein emploi
Introduction de prestations sociales pour la population à faible revenu, afin de garantir un soutien minimum

Il convient de noter que, selon le modèle keynésien, le produit intérieur brut (PIB) peut être calculé dans la monnaie d’un pays donné à partir de la somme de toutes ses composantes: PIB = C + I + G + X – M. Pour faire face à la menace de dépression de l’économie brésilienne résultant de la récession actuelle et de l’impact du coronavirus basé sur le modèle keynésien, il est essentiel de favoriser l’expansion de l’économie en augmentant la consommation des ménages (C), le taux d’investissement du secteur privé (I ), Les dépenses publiques d’investissement dans les infrastructures économiques et sociales (G) et les recettes d’exportations (X) et la réduction des importations (M). La proposition de Paulo Guedes n’envisage rien de tout cela.

Afin d’augmenter la consommation des ménages (C), il est nécessaire d’augmenter la masse salariale de la population avec la création d’emplois et de revenus et d’adopter une politique de crédit qui incite les consommateurs à acheter. Afin d’élever le niveau des investissements du secteur privé (I), il est nécessaire de réduire la pression fiscale, de mettre en œuvre une politique d’incitations fiscales et d’intérêt attractif pour les entrepreneurs. Afin d’augmenter les dépenses de l’État (G), il est nécessaire d’augmenter le niveau des investissements dans les infrastructures économiques (énergie, transports et communications) et les infrastructures sociales (éducation, santé, logement et assainissement de base). La croissance économique peut également être réalisée en augmentant le niveau des exportations (X) et en réduisant les importations (M) avec la politique de remplacement des biens importés en vue de développer les activités économiques. Rien de tout cela n’a fait l’objet d’une action économique de la part du gouvernement Bolsonaro. Pour réactiver la croissance économique le plus rapidement possible, il est nécessaire de réactiver les travaux paralysés et d’élaborer un large programme d’infrastructures économiques (énergie, transports et communications) et sociales (éducation, santé, logement, assainissement de base et environnement) qui au Brésil exige des ressources de l’ordre de R$ 2 000 milliards. De ces investissements dans les infrastructures, la priorité serait avec le secteur de la santé en cette période d’expansion du coronavirus dans le pays.

Afin de relancer la croissance économique dans les meilleurs délais, il est nécessaire de développer un programme d’infrastructures économiques (énergie, transports et communications) et d’infrastructures sociales (éducation, santé, logement, assainissement de base et environnement) qui, au Brésil, demande des ressources de l’ordre de 2 billions de R $. De ces investissements dans les infrastructures, la priorité serait avec le secteur de la santé en cette période d’expansion du coronavirus dans le pays.

Pour remédier aux carences des infrastructures, le Brésil devrait investir R$ 2 000 milliards selon l’Institut de la logistique et de la chaîne d’approvisionnement. Les investissements nécessaires au Brésil dans les ports ( R$ 42,9 milliards), les chemins de fer ( R$ 130,8 milliards) et les autoroutes ( R$ 811,7 milliards) totalisent R$ 985,4 milliards. Ajouter ce montant aux investissements nécessaires dans les voies navigables et les ports fluviaux ( R$ 10,9 milliards), les aéroports ( R$ 9,3 milliards), le secteur de l’électricité ( R$ 293,9 milliards), le pétrole et le gaz ( R$ 75,3 milliards), l’assainissement de base ( R$ 270 milliards) et les télécommunications (R$ 19,7 milliards) totalisent R$ 1 664,5 milliards. Le secteur de l’éducation nécessite des investissements de R$ 83 milliards par an, le secteur de la santé de R$ 54 milliards par an et le secteur du logement populaire a besoin de R$ 68 milliards pour éliminer le déficit de logement. Ajoutant l’investissement total requis dans les infrastructures économiques (énergie, transports et communications) à celui des infrastructures sociales (éducation, santé, assainissement de base et logement) totaliserait R$ 1869,5 milliards, soit près de R$ 2000 milliards.

Pour éviter d’aggraver la récession de l’économie brésilienne avec l’impact du coronavirus, il est nécessaire que le gouvernement fédéral alloue R$ 2 billions nécessaires pour investir dans les infrastructures économiques et sociales et non les ressources limitées d’un montant de R$ 147,3 milliards qui sont insuffisants pour faire face à la menace de dépression économique dans le pays et allouent, principalement, R$ 54 milliards par an pour renforcer le secteur de la santé et non les ridicules R$ 4,5 milliards proposés par le ministre Paulo Guedes pour lutter contre la pandémie de coronavirus . De plus, le gouvernement fédéral devrait abandonner la politique de plafonnement des dépenses qui ne se justifie pas dans une situation où la vie de la population et de l’économie brésiliennes est menacée comme jamais auparavant dans l’histoire du Brésil.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, a reçoit la Médaille du Mérite en Ingénierie du Système CONFEA / CREA, membre de l’Académie de l’Education de Bahia, ingénieur et docteur en planification territoriale et développement régional pour l’Université de Barcelone, professeur universitaire et consultant dans les domaines de la planification stratégique, planification d’entreprise, planification régionale et planification énergétique, il est l’auteur de ouvrages Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) et Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

THE INEFFECTIVE ECONOMIC PROPOSAL OF MINISTER PAULO GUEDES TO OVERCOME THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS WITH THE CORONAVIRUS

Fernando Alcoforado*

Minister of Economy of the Bolsonaro government, Paulo Guedes, announced emergency measures to limit the effects of the coronavirus on the Brazilian economy for the next three months that has three objectives: 1) to protect the most vulnerable part of society; 2) to help companies in difficulties; and, 3) to reinforce investments in health. The total to be invested corresponds to R$ 147.3 with the reallocation of expenses foreseen in the federal government budget and maintaining the spending limit established. Emergency resource releases are as follows:

Most vulnerable population: R$ 83.4 billion

»Anticipation of the two installments of the 13th salary of

INSS retirees and pensioners, for April and May: R$ 46 billion;

»Transfer of amounts not drawn from PIS / Pasep to FGTS, to allow new withdrawals: R$ 21.5 billion;

»Anticipation of the salary bonus for June: R$ 12.8 billion;

»Reinforcement of the Bolsa Família program, with the inclusion of over 1 million beneficiaries: R$ 3.1 billion;

»Reduction of the interest ceiling on the payroll loan, increase in the margin and payment term.

Maintenance of jobs: R$ 59.4 billion

»Postponement of the FGTS payment term for three months: R$ 30 billion;

»Postponement of the Union’s share in Simples Nacional for three months: R$ 22.2 billion;

»Proger / FAT credit for micro and small companies: R$ 5 billion;

»50% reduction in contributions from Sistema S for three months: R$ 2.2 billion;

»Simplification of the requirements for contracting credit and dispensing with documentation for renegotiation;

»Simplification of the clearance of imported industrial raw materials before landing.

Fighting the pandemic: R$ 4.5 billion

»Destination of the DPVAT fund balance to SUS: R$ 4.5 billion;

»Reduction to zero of imports tariffs for products for medical and hospital use (until the end of the year);

»Temporary exemption from IPI for listed imported goods that are necessary to combat Covid-19;

»Suspension of proof of life for INSS beneficiaries for 120 days.
Why is this proposal ineffective? This proposal is ineffective because the neoliberal minister Paulo Guedes avoids adopting the Keynesian solution that is the most correct to face the trend of deepening the recession followed by economic depression that will lead Brazil to generalized bankruptcy of companies, mass unemployment and insolvency federal, state and municipal governments. The Keynesian solution should imply an increase in spending by the federal government to compensate for the steep drop in household consumption and private investment aggravated by the coronavirus and not in maintaining the established spending ceiling. The United States government, for example, intends to allocate US$ 1 trillion to fight the coronavirus in the country.

Keynesian economic doctrine became known as opposition to the liberal theory in force until the 1930s of the 20th century. With the Keynesian economic doctrine, the State should intervene in the economy whenever necessary, in order to avoid the economic downturn and guarantee full employment. According to Keynes, liberal-capitalist theory does not provide mechanisms and tools capable of guaranteeing a country’s employment stability. This fact is proven in Brazil and in the world with the prevailing neoliberalism. Note the fact that Keynesianism was adopted by all governments as one of the fundamental factors for the economic recovery that took place in the world after the world economic depression that broke out with the crash of the New York Stock Exchange in 1929. The Main Characteristics Keynesianism are as follows:

Defense of state intervention in areas that private companies cannot or do not wish to act
Opposition to the liberal system
Reduction in interest rates
Balance between demand and supply
Ensuring full employment
Introduction of social benefits for the low-income population, in order to guarantee minimum support

It is worth noting that, according to the Keynesian model, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be calculated in the currency of a given country from the sum of all its components: GDP = C + I + G + X – M. o face the threat of depression in the Brazilian economy resulting from the current recession and of the impact of the coronavirus based on the Keynesian model, it is essential to promote the expansion of the economy by expanding household consumption (C), the private sector investment rate (I), the State’s expenditure on investments in economic and social infrastructure (G) and export revenue (X) and reduced imports (M). Paulo Guedes’ proposal does not contemplate any of this.

In order to increase household consumption (C), it is necessary to increase the population’s wage bill with the generation of jobs and income and adopt a credit policy that encourages consumers to buy. To raise the level of private sector investments (I), it is necessary to reduce the tax burden, implement a policy of tax incentives and attractive interest for businessmen. In order to increase government expenditure (G), it is necessary to increase the level of investments in economic infrastructure (energy, transport and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, housing and basic sanitation). Economic growth can also be achieved by raising the level of exports (X) and reducing imports (M) with the policy of substituting imported goods with a view to expanding economic activities. Nothing of this has been the object of the economic action of the Bolsonaro government. In order to reactivate economic growth as quickly as possible, it is necessary to reactivate paralyzed works and elaborate a broad program of economic infrastructure works (energy, transport and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, housing, basic sanitation and the environment) which, in Brazil, demands resources of the order of R$ 2 trillion. Of these investments in infrastructure, the priority would be with the health sector at this time of expansion of the coronavirus in the country.

To address deficiencies in infrastructure, Brazil should invest R$ 2 trillion according to the Institute of Logistics and Supply Chain. The investments required in Brazil in ports (R$ 42.9 billion), railways (R$ 130.8 billion) and highways (R$ 811.7 billion) total R$ 985.4 billion. Adding this amount to the necessary investments in waterways and river ports (R$ 10.9 billion), airports (R$ 9.3 billion), electricity sector (R$ 293.9 billion), oil and gas (R$ 75.3 billion), basic sanitation (R$ 270 billion) and telecommunications (R$ 19.7 billion) total R$ 1,664.5 billion. The education sector requires investments of R$ 83 billion per year, the health sector R$ 54 billion per year and the popular housing sector requires R$ 68 billion to eliminate the housing deficit. Adding the total investment required in economic infrastructure (energy, transport and communications) with that of social infrastructure (education, health, basic sanitation and housing) would total R$ 1,869.5 billion, that is, almost R$ 2 trillion.

To avoid deepening the recession in the Brazilian economy with the impact of the coronavirus, it is necessary that the federal government allocate R $ 2 trillion needed to invest in economic and social infrastructure and not the scarce resources in the amount of R$ 147.3 billion that are insufficient to face the threat of economic depression in the country and allocate, primarily, R$ 54 billion per year to strengthen the health sector and not the ridiculous R$ 4.5 billion proposed by Minister Paulo Guedes to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Besides that. In addition, the federal government should abandon the spending cap policy that is not justified in a situation in which the lives of the Brazilian population and economy are threatened as never before in the history of Brazil.

A INEFICAZ PROPOSTA ECONÔMICA DO MINISTRO PAULO GUEDES PARA SUPERAR A CRISE ECONÔMICA DO BRASIL COM O CORONAVIRUS

Fernando Alcoforado*

Ministro da Economia do governo Bolsonaro, Paulo Guedes, anunciou medidas emergenciais para limitar os efeitos do coronavírus sobre a economia brasileira pelos próximos três meses que tem três objetivos: 1) proteger a parcela mais vulnerável da sociedade; 2) socorrer empresas em dificuldades; e, 3) reforçar investimentos na saúde. O total a investir corresponde a R$ 147,3 com o remanejamento de gastos previstos no orçamento do governo federal e manutenção do teto de gastos. As liberações emergenciais de recursos são as seguintes:

População mais vulnerável: R$ 83,4 bilhões

» Antecipação das duas parcelas do 13º de aposentados e pensionistas do INSS, para abril e maio: R$ 46 bilhões;
» Transferência de valores não sacados do PIS/Pasep para o FGTS, para permitir novos saques: R$ 21,5 bilhões;
» Antecipação do abono salarial para junho: R$ 12,8 bilhões;
» Reforço ao programa Bolsa Família, com a inclusão de mais 1 milhão de beneficiários: R$ 3,1 bilhões;
» Redução do teto de juros do empréstimo consignado, aumento da margem e do prazo de pagamento.

Manutenção de empregos: R$ 59,4 bilhões

» Adiamento do prazo de pagamento do FGTS por três meses: R$30 bilhões;
» Adiamento da parte da União no Simples Nacional por três meses: R$ 22,2 bilhões;
» Crédito do Proger/FAT para micro e pequenas empresas: R$ 5 bilhões;
» Redução de 50% nas contribuições do Sistema S por três meses: R$2,2 bilhões;
» Simplificação das exigências para contratação de crédito e dispensa de documentação para renegociação;
» Simplificação do desembaraço de insumos e matérias-primas industriais importadas antes do desembarque.

Combate à pandemia: R$ 4,5 bilhões

» Destinação do saldo do fundo do DPVAT para o SUS: R$ 4,5 bilhões;
» Redução a zero de importação para produtos de uso médico-hospitalar (até o final do ano);
» Desoneração temporária de IPI para bens importados listados que sejam necessários ao combate à Covid-19;
» Suspensão da prova de vida dos beneficiários do INSS por 120 dias.

Por que esta proposta é ineficaz? Esta proposta é ineficaz porque o ministro neoliberal Paulo Guedes evita adotar a solução Keynesiana que é a mais correta para fazer frente à tendência de aprofundamento da recessão seguida de depressão econômica que levará o Brasil à falência generalizada de empresas, ao desemprego em massa e à insolvência dos governos federal, estaduais e municipais. A solução Keynesiana deveria implicar no aumento de gasto por parte do governo federal para compensar a vertiginosa queda do consumo das famílias e do investimento privado agravados pelo coronavirus e não na manutenção do teto de gastos estabelecido. O governo dos Estados Unidos, por exemplo, pretende alocar US$ 1 trilhão para combater o coronavirus no País.

A doutrina econômica Keynesiana ficou conhecida como oposição à teoria liberal vigente até a década de 1930 do século XX. Com a doutrina econômica Keynesiana, o Estado deveria intervir na economia sempre que fosse necessário, afim de evitar a retração econômica e garantir o pleno emprego. De acordo com Keynes, a teoria liberal-capitalista não disponibiliza mecanismos e ferramentas capazes de garantir a estabilidade empregatícia de um país. Este fato é comprovado no Brasil e no mundo com o neoliberalismo imperante. Registre-se o fato de que o Keynesianismo foi adotado por todos os governos como um dos fatores fundamentais para a recuperação econômica ocorrida no mundo após a depressão econômica mundial que eclodiu com a quebra da Bolsa de Valores de Nova York em 1929. As principais características do Keynesianismo são as seguintes:

Defesa da intervenção estatal em áreas que as empresas privadas não podem ou não desejam atuar
Oposição ao sistema liberal
Redução de taxas de juros
Equilíbrio entre demanda e oferta
Garantia do pleno emprego
Introdução de benefícios sociais para a população de baixa renda, afim de garantir um sustento mínimo

É oportuno observar que, de acordo com o modelo Keynesiano, o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) pode ser calculado na moeda de um determinado país a partir da soma de todos os seus componentes: PIB = C + I + G + X – M. Para fazer frente à ameaça de depressão da economia brasileira resultante da recessão atual e do impacto do coronavirus com base no modelo Keynesiano, é fundamental promover a expansão da economia ampliando o consumo das famílias (C), a taxa de investimento do setor privado (I), a despesa do Estado com investimentos em infraestrutura econômica e social (G) e a receita com exportações (X) e a redução das importações (M). A proposta de Paulo Guedes não contempla nada disto.

Para elevar o consumo das famílias (C), é preciso aumentar a massa salarial da população com a geração de emprego e renda e adotar política de crédito que incentive o consumidor a comprar. Para elevar o nível dos investimentos do setor privado (I), é preciso reduzir a carga tributária, implementar uma política de incentivos fiscais e juros atrativos para os empresários. Para elevar a despesa do Estado (G), é preciso elevar o nível dos investimentos em infra-estrutura econômica (energia, transporte e comunicações) e infraestrutura social (educação, saúde, habitação e saneamento básico). O crescimento econômico pode ser alcançado também com a elevação do nível das exportações (X) e a redução das importações (M) com a política de substituição de bens importados visando a expansão das atividades econômicas. Nada disto vem sendo objeto da ação econômica do governo Bolsonaro. Para reativar o crescimento econômico o mais rapidamente possível, é preciso reativar obras paralisadas e elaborar um amplo programa de obras de infraestrutura econômica (energia, transporte e comunicações) e social (educação, saúde, habitação, saneamento básico e meio ambiente) que, no Brasil demanda recursos da ordem de R$ 2 trilhões. Desses investimentos na infraestrutura a prioridade seria com o setor de saúde neste momento de expansão do coronavirus no País.

Para suprir as deficiências em infraestrutura, o Brasil deveria investir R$ 2 trilhões. Segundo o Instituto de Logística e Supply Chain. Os investimentos necessários no Brasil em portos (R$ 42,9 bilhões), ferrovias (R$ 130,8 bilhões) e rodovias (R$ 811,7 bilhões) totalizam R$ 985,4 bilhões. Acrescentando este valor aos investimentos necessários a hidrovias e portos fluviais (R$ 10,9 bilhões), aeroportos (R$ 9,3 bilhões), setor elétrico (R$ 293,9 bilhões), petróleo e gás (R$ 75,3 bilhões), saneamento básico (R$ 270 bilhões) e telecomunicações (R$ 19,7 bilhões) totalizam R$ 1.664,5 bilhões. O setor de educação requer investimentos de R$ 83 bilhões por ano, o de saúde R$ 54 bilhões por ano e o de habitação popular requer R$ 68 bilhões para eliminar o déficit habitacional. Somando o total de investimento requerido em infraestrutura econômica (energia, transportes e comunicações) com o de infraestrutura social (educação, saúde, saneamento básico e habitação) totalizaria R$ 1.869,5 bilhões, isto é, quase R$ 2 trilhões.

Para evitar que seja aprofundada a recessão na economia brasileira com o impacto do coronavirus, é preciso que o governo federal aloque R$ 2 trilhões necessários para investir em infraestrutura econômica e social e não os parcos recursos no valor de R$ 147,3 bilhões que são insuficientes para fazerem frente à ameaça de depressão econômica do País e aloque, prioritariamente, R$ 54 bilhões por ano para reforçar o setor de saúde e não os ridículos R$ 4,5 bilhões propostos pelo ministro Paulo Guedes para combater a pandemia do coronavirus. Além disso, o governo federal deveria abandonar a política do teto de gastos que não se justifica em uma conjuntura em que estão ameaçadas a vida da população e da economia brasileira como nunca ocorreu na história do Brasil.

THE WORLD TOWARDS ECONOMIC DEPRESSION

Fernando Alcoforado*

Coronavirus effects heighten fears of recession followed by depression in the world economy. Stock exchanges have had a difficult week around the world and, in Europe, the recession seems inevitable. The paralysis in China weighs heavily on the domestic growth of many countries because the supply chains of multinationals need components manufactured in Chinese factories to guarantee their production. Consumption in western countries will be strongly affected. Tourism, air transport, leisure are already suffering the consequences. A global recession followed by depression is approaching. In Europe, this seems inevitable. The world economy is on a tightrope and the coronavirus may be the “fatal coup” that will cause it to fall.

The world is paralyzed as the new coronavirus spreads. Airplanes that don’t take off, schools closed in Japan and France, and massive suspended events in Switzerland and other parts of the world. The world economy faces its greatest risk of recession followed by depression since the 2008 global financial crisis. Considering that each pandemic throughout history has always been followed by a global recession, there is no reason why it would be any different this time. Long before this coronavirus pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the global recovery would be “fragile” and could succumb to the slightest turbulence. The situation worsened further with the expansion of the coronavirus.

As the list of radical measures to try to stem the spread of coronavirus grows by the day, the epidemic originating in China is expanding globally. Since January, factories have stopped their activities in China and entire cities have been confined. Saudi Arabia has stopped receiving pilgrims heading to Mecca. In addition, in Italy there was a suspension of football league matches. Even the Tokyo Olympic Games are at risk of not being held. There are 101,988 infected by the coronavirus in the world and 3,491 died, according to an AFP report from official sources. Many looks are turned to the United States, where the coronavirus has so far not hit hard, although health officials hope this will happen soon. To avoid this scenario, President Donald Trump decided to suspend flights from Europe to the United States, which will contribute strongly to the increase in the global recession.

If there is contamination in the United States, the US economy would immediately fall into recession. Consumption, which accounts for 70% of economic activity in the United States, could be affected sharply. If the world’s largest economy falls into a recession, the rest of the planet would suffer the consequences. China’s global economy and China’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) are expected to grow less than expected in 2020. The IMF projection is for a growth rate of 5.6% for China and 3.3% for the world economy in 2020. The outbreak of the coronavirus represents a major shock in the Chinese economy, as it has closed factories and stores, quarantined entire regions and left many citizens locked in their homes for fear of contagion, thereby reducing consumption and economic activity. It is worth remembering that China is the second largest economy in the world, with a share in global GDP of around 16%. The high successive declines that are currently registered on the Stock Exchanges all over the world are basically the result of investors’ expectations of a recession in the world economy caused by the coronavirus.

Coronavirus pandemic affects global supply chains, shakes stock markets, drives down oil prices and raises concerns about slowing Chinese, US and global economies. The advancing epidemic of the new coronavirus around the world has caused havoc in global markets and raised concerns among investors and governments about the impact of the spread of the virus on global supply chains, corporate profits and the growth of the global economy. Coronavirus effects heighten fears of deep recession in the world economy. Stock exchanges have had a difficult week around the world, and in Europe, the recession followed by depression seems inevitable. The paralysis in China weighs on the growth of the world economy because the supply chains of multinationals need components manufactured in Chinese factories to guarantee their production. Consumption in western countries will be strongly affected. A global recession followed by depression is approaching. In Europe, this seems inevitable.

It should be noted that an economic depression is characterized by an aggravated state of recession, which always has negative consequences for the world economy. There are differences between recession and economic depression. Recession occurs when there is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. Economic depression, in turn, consists of a long period characterized by a steep fall in GDP, numerous corporate bankruptcies, high unemployment growth, scarcity of credit, low levels of production and investment, reduced commercial transactions, high exchange volatility, with deflation (falling prices) or hyperinflation (rising prices) and crisis of confidence. The greatest economic depressions in history were those of 1815, 1873 and 1929. Among them, the most serious was, without a doubt, that of 1929.

The economic depression of 1929 occurred with the crack of the New York Stock Exchange when the shares of large companies fell sharply, losing almost all their financial value. The companies were forced to slow down their production. As a result, they promoted the mass layoff of workers. With the crash of the New York Stock Exchange, banks and investors lost large sums of money. The situation of the banks was made worse by the fact that debtors were unable to pay their debts. This, in turn, caused the profits of these financial institutions to decline. Many people who used banks, fearing their possible bankruptcy, removed their deposits and investments from them. Thus, several banking institutions went bankrupt. The total number of banking institutions closed during the 1920s and 1930s was 14,000, a gigantic index. About 30% of American workers who remained in their jobs were forced to accept cuts in their wages. Another existing problem was the great deflation – drop in the price of products and in the cost of living in general. The effects of the Great Depression of 1929 were felt worldwide because the economy was already sufficiently globalized, further increasing poverty and unemployment. World production was reduced by 40%, with a decrease in iron production reaching 60%, steel 58%, oil 13% and coal 29%. These effects reached different intensities in each country. This scenario can be repeated at the current moment.

We are, therefore, facing a fundamental crisis of capitalism as occurred with the depression of 1929. Our era is one in which the enormous and concentrated economic forces are being called upon to act in times of crisis. Those responsible for driving the world economy today do not have a solution in their hands. The governments of the central capitalist countries do not know how to save the system from the widespread economic debacle that is underway aggravated by the coronavirus. To resolve the current crisis, it would be necessary to make a profound change towards a new world economy. Macabre, in the 1930s of the 20th century, there was already a program for the solution of the crisis: the preparation of war. The world economic crisis that began in 1929 only ended with the outbreak of World War II. At present, will humanity have to face a new world conflagration to save the world capitalist system from the impending debacle?

And Brazil? The country’s economy is sensitive to what happens in China, its main trading partner and, also, in the United States. A general slowdown in the world economy will have a considerable effect on Brazilian exports and on the growth prospects of the fragile national economy, which has been stagnating since 2014, facing an endemic recession. If the prospects for the world economy towards the economic depression are catastrophic, they are also equally catastrophic for the Brazilian economy.

LE MONDE VERS LA DÉPRESSION ÉCONOMIQUE

Fernando Alcoforado*

Les effets du coronavirus accroissent les craintes d’une récession suivie d’une dépression de l’économie mondiale. Les bourses ont connu une semaine difficile dans le monde et, en Europe, la récession semble inévitable. La paralysie en Chine pèse lourdement sur la croissance intérieure de nombreux pays car les chaînes d’approvisionnement des multinationales ont besoin de composants fabriqués dans les usines chinoises pour garantir leur production. La consommation dans les pays occidentaux sera fortement affectée. Le tourisme, le transport aérien, les loisirs en subissent déjà les conséquences. Une récession mondiale suivie d’une dépression approche. En Europe, cela semble inévitable. L’économie mondiale est sur la corde raide et le coronavirus pourrait être le «coup fatal» qui le ferait tomber.

Le monde est paralysé à mesure que le nouveau coronavirus se propage. Des avions qui ne décollent pas, des écoles fermées au Japon et en France, et des événements suspendus massifs en Suisse et dans d’autres parties du monde. L’économie mondiale est confrontée à son plus grand risque de récession suivie de dépression depuis la crise financière mondiale de 2008. Étant donné que chaque pandémie à travers l’histoire a toujours été suivie d’une récession mondiale, il n’y a aucune raison pour qu’elle soit différente cette fois. Bien avant cette pandémie de coronavirus, le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a prévenu que la reprise mondiale serait “fragile” et pourrait succomber à la moindre turbulence. La situation est devenue encore pire avec l’expansion du coronavirus.

S’il y a contamination aux États-Unis, l’économie américaine tomberait immédiatement en récession. La consommation, qui représente 70% de l’activité économique aux États-Unis, pourrait être fortement affectée. Si la plus grande économie du monde tombe en récession, le reste de la planète en subirait les conséquences. L’économie mondiale de la Chine et son PIB (produit intérieur brut) devraient croître moins que prévu en 2020. Les projections du FMI tablent sur un taux de croissance de 5,6% pour la Chine et de 3,3% pour l’économie mondiale en 2020. L’épidémie du coronavirus représente un choc majeur dans l’économie chinoise, car elle a fermé des usines et des magasins, mis en quarantaine des régions entières et laissé de nombreux citoyens enfermés dans leurs maisons par peur de la contagion, réduisant ainsi la consommation et l’activité économique. Il convient de rappeler que la Chine est la deuxième économie du monde, avec une part du PIB mondial d’environ 16%. Les fortes baisses successives actuellement enregistrées sur les bourses du monde entier sont essentiellement le résultat des attentes des investisseurs d’une récession de l’économie mondiale causée par le coronavirus.

La pandémie de coronavirus affecte les chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales, secoue les marchés boursiers, fait baisser les prix du pétrole et fait craindre un ralentissement des économies chinoise, américaine et mondiale. L’épidémie croissante du nouveau coronavirus dans le monde a provoqué des ravages sur les marchés mondiaux et suscité des inquiétudes parmi les investisseurs et les gouvernements concernant l’impact de la propagation du virus sur les chaînes d’approvisionnements mondiaux, les bénéfices des entreprises et la croissance de l’économie mondiale. Les effets du coronavirus accroissent les craintes d’une récession profonde dans l’économie mondiale. Les bourses ont connu une semaine difficile dans le monde et, en Europe, la récession suivie d’une dépression semble inévitable. La paralysie en Chine pèse sur la croissance de l’économie mondiale car les chaînes d’approvisionnement des multinationales ont besoin de composants fabriqués dans les usines chinoises pour garantir leur production. La consommation dans les pays occidentaux sera fortement affectée. Une récession mondiale suivie d’une dépression approche. En Europe, cela semble inévitable.

Il convient de noter qu’une dépression économique se caractérise par un état de récession aggravé, qui a toujours des conséquences négatives pour l’économie mondiale. Il existe des différences entre la récession et la dépression économique. La récession survient lorsqu’il y a une baisse du produit intérieur brut (PIB) pendant au moins deux trimestres consécutifs. La dépression économique, quant à elle, se compose d’une longue période caractérisée par une forte baisse du PIB, de nombreuses faillites d’entreprises, une forte croissance du chômage, une rareté du crédit, de faibles niveaux de production et d’investissement, une réduction des transactions commerciales, une forte volatilité des changes, avec déflation (baisse des prix) ou hyperinflation (hausse des prix) et crise de confiance. Les plus grandes dépressions économiques de l’histoire sont celles de 1815, 1873 et 1929. Parmi elles, la plus grave est sans aucun doute celle de 1929.

La dépression économique de 1929 s’est produite avec le “crack” de la Bourse de New York lorsque les actions des grandes entreprises ont fortement chuté, perdant presque toute leur valeur financière. Les entreprises ont été contraintes de ralentir leur production. En conséquence, ils ont favorisé le licenciement massif de travailleurs. Avec l’effondrement de la Bourse de New York, les banques et les investisseurs ont perdu de grosses sommes d’argent. La situation des banques a été aggravée par le fait que les débiteurs n’ont pas été en mesure de payer leurs dettes. Ceci, à son tour, a provoqué une baisse des bénéfices de ces institutions financières. De nombreuses personnes qui ont eu recours aux banques, craignant leur éventuelle faillite, leur ont retiré leurs dépôts et investissements. Ainsi, plusieurs institutions bancaires ont fait faillite. Le nombre total d’établissements bancaires fermés au cours des années 1920 et 1930 était de 14 000, un indice gigantesque. Environ 30% des travailleurs américains qui sont restés dans leur emploi ont été contraints d’accepter des réductions de salaire. Un autre problème existant était la grande déflation – baisse du prix des produits et du coût de la vie en général. Les effets de la Grande Dépression de 1929 se sont fait sentir dans le monde entier parce que l’économie était déjà suffisamment mondialisée, augmentant encore la pauvreté et le chômage. La production mondiale a été réduite de 40%, avec une baisse de la production de fer atteignant 60%, l’acier 58%, le pétrole 13% et le charbon 29%. Ces effets ont atteint des intensités différentes dans chaque pays. Ce scénario peut être répété au moment actuel.

Nous sommes donc confrontés à une crise fondamentale du capitalisme comme celle de la dépression de 1929. Notre époque est celle où les forces économiques énormes et concentrées sont appelées à agir en temps de crise. Les responsables de l’économie mondiale aujourd’hui n’ont pas de solution entre les mains. Les gouvernements des pays capitalistes centraux ne savent pas comment sauver le système de la débâcle économique généralisée, aggravée par le coronavirus. Pour résoudre la crise actuelle, il faudrait opérer un changement profond vers une nouvelle économie mondiale. Macabre, dans les années 1930 du XXe siècle, il y avait déjà un programme pour la solution de la crise: la préparation de la guerre. La crise économique mondiale qui a commencé en 1929 ne s’est terminée qu’avec le déclenchement de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. À l’heure actuelle, l’humanité devra-t-elle faire face à une nouvelle conflagration mondiale pour sauver le système capitaliste mondial de la débâcle imminente?

Et le Brésil? L’économie du pays est sensible à ce qui se passe en Chine, son principal partenaire commercial et, également, aux États-Unis. Un ralentissement général de l’économie mondiale aura un effet considérable sur les exportations brésiliennes et sur les perspectives de croissance de la fragile économie nationale, qui stagne depuis 2014, face à une récession endémique. Si les perspectives de l’économie mondiale vers la dépression économique sont catastrophiques, elles le sont également pour l’économie brésilienne.

O MUNDO RUMO À DEPRESSÃO ECONÔMICA

Fernando Alcoforado*

Efeitos do coronavírus aumentam temores de recessão seguida de depressão na economia mundial. As bolsas de valores tiveram uma semana difícil em todo o mundo e, na Europa, a recessão parece inevitável. A paralisia na China pesa fortemente no crescimento doméstico de inúmeros países porque as cadeias de suprimentos de multinacionais precisam de componentes fabricados nas fábricas chinesas para garantir sua produção. O consumo nos países ocidentais será fortemente afetado. Turismo, transporte aéreo, lazer já estão sofrendo as consequências. Uma recessão global seguida de depressão está se aproximando. Na Europa, isso parece inevitável. A economia mundial caminha na corda bamba e o coronavírus pode ser “o golpe de misericórdia” que a fará cair.

O mundo se paralisa à medida que o novo coronavírus se propaga. Aviões que não decolam, escolas fechadas no Japão e na França e eventos maciços suspensos na Suíça e outras partes do mundo. A economia mundial enfrenta seu maior risco de recessão seguida de depressão desde a crise financeira mundial de 2008. Considerando que cada pandemia ao longo da história sempre foi seguida de uma recessão global, não há razões para que seja diferente desta vez. Muito antes desta pandemia do coronavírus, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) advertiu que a recuperação mundial seria “frágil” e poderia sucumbir à menor turbulência. A situação se agravou ainda mais com o a expansão do coronavirus.

Enquanto a lista de medidas radicais para tentar conter o avanço do coronavírus crescem a cada dia, a epidemia originada na China se expande globalmente. Desde janeiro, fábricas pararam suas atividades na China e cidades inteiras foram confinadas. A Arábia Saudita deixou de receber peregrinos em direção a Meca. E na Itália houve suspensão de partidas do campeonato de futebol. Inclusive os Jogos Olímpicos de Tóquio estão em risco de não se realizar. No mundo há 101.988 contagiados pelo coronavírus e 3.491 morreram, segundo um balanço da AFP a partir de fontes oficiais. Muitos olhares se voltam para os Estados Unidos, onde até agora o coronavírus não atingiu com força, embora as autoridades sanitárias esperem que isto ocorra em breve. Para evitar este cenário, o presidente Donald Trump decidiu suspender os voos da Europa para os Estados Unidos que contribuirá fortemente para o aumento da recessão global.

Se há uma contaminação nos Estados Unidos, a economia norte-americana cairia em recessão imediatamente. O consumo, que representa 70% da atividade econômica nos Estados Unidos, poderia ser afetado bruscamente. Se a maior economia do mundo cair em recessão, o resto do planeta sofreria as consequências. A economia global e o PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) da China deverão crescer menos que o esperado em 2020. A projeção do FMI é de uma taxa de crescimento de 5,6% para a China e de 3,3% para a economia mundial em 2020. O surto do coronavírus representa um grande abalo na economia chinesa, pois tem fechado fábricas e lojas, colocado regiões inteiras em quarentena e deixado muitos cidadãos trancados em suas casas por medo do contágio, reduzindo dessa forma o consumo e a atividade econômica. Vale lembrar que a China é a segunda maior economia do mundo, com uma participação no PIB global da ordem de 16%. As elevadas quedas sucessivas que se registram atualmente nas Bolsas de Valores de todo o mundo resultam fundamentalmente das expectativas dos investidores de recessão da economia mundial provocada pelo coronavirus.

Pandemia do coronavirus afeta cadeias globais de suprimentos, abala bolsas, derruba preços do petróleo e eleva preocupações sobre desaceleração das economias chinesa, norte-americana e global. O avanço da epidemia do novo coronavírus pelo mundo tem provocado abalos nos mercados globais e tem elevado as preocupações de investidores e governos sobre o impacto da propagação do vírus nas cadeias globais de suprimentos, nos lucros das empresas e no crescimento da economia global. Efeitos do coronavírus aumentam temores de recessão profunda na economia mundial. As bolsas de valores tiveram uma semana difícil em todo o mundo e, na Europa, a recessão seguida de depressão parece inevitável. A paralisia na China pesa no crescimento da economia mundial porque as cadeias de suprimentos de multinacionais precisam de componentes fabricados nas fábricas chinesas para garantir sua produção. O consumo nos países ocidentais será fortemente afetado. Uma recessão global seguida de depressão está se aproximando. Na Europa, isso parece inevitável.

Cabe observar que uma depressão econômica é caracterizada por um estado agravado de recessão sempre acarretando em consequências negativas para a economia mundial. Há diferenças entre recessão e depressão econômica. Recessão ocorre quando há declínio do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) por dois ou mais trimestres consecutivos. Depressão econômica, por sua vez, consiste num longo período caracterizado por vertiginosa queda do PIB, numerosas falências de empresas, crescimento elevado do desemprego, escassez de crédito, baixos níveis de produção e investimento, redução das transações comerciais, alta volatilidade do câmbio, com deflação (queda nos preços) ou hiperinflação (alta de preços) e crise de confiança. As maiores depressões econômicas da história foram as de 1815, 1873 e 1929. Entre elas, a mais grave foi, sem dúvidas, a de 1929.

A depressão econômica de 1929 ocorreu com o “crack” da Bolsa de Valores de Nova York quando as ações das grandes empresas sofreram uma queda vertiginosa, perdendo quase todo o seu valor financeiro. As empresas foram forçadas a reduzir o ritmo de sua produção. Em função disso, promoveram a demissão em massa de trabalhadores. Com a quebra da Bolsa de Valores de Nova Iorque, bancos e investidores perderam grandes somas em dinheiro. A situação dos bancos foi agravada pelo fato de os devedores estarem incapacitados de pagar suas dívidas. Isto, por sua vez, causou a queda dos lucros destas instituições financeiras. Muitas pessoas que utilizavam-se de bancos, temendo sua possível falência, removeram destes os seus depósitos e investimentos. Assim, várias instituições bancárias quebraram. O total de instituições bancárias fechadas durante a década de 1920 e de 1930 foi de 14 mil, um índice gigantesco. Cerca de 30% dos trabalhadores norte-americanos que continuaram nos seus empregos foram obrigados a aceitar reduções em seus salários. Outro problema existente foi a grande deflação – queda do preço dos produtos e do custo de vida em geral. Os efeitos da Grande Depressão de 1929 foram sentidos no mundo inteiro porque a economia já estava suficientemente mundializada, aumentando ainda mais a miséria e o desemprego. A produção mundial reduziu-se em 40%, sendo que a diminuição da produção de ferro atingiu a 60%, a do aço 58%, a do petróleo 13% e a do carvão 29%. Estes efeitos atingiram diferentes intensidades em cada país. Este cenário pode se repetir no momento atual.

Estamos, portanto, diante de uma crise fundamental do capitalismo como ocorreu com a depressão de 1929. Nossa era é uma em que as enormes e concentradas forças econômicas estão sendo chamadas a agir em tempos de crise. Os responsáveis pela condução da economia mundial, hoje, não têm uma solução nas mãos. Os governos dos países capitalistas centrais não sabem como salvar o sistema da débâcle econômica generalizada que está em curso agravada pelo coronavirus. Para solucionar a crise atual, seria necessário realizar uma profunda mudança rumo a uma nova economia mundial. Macabramente, na década de 1930 do século XX, já havia um programa para a solução da crise: a preparação da guerra. A crise econômica mundial que se instalou em 1929 só terminou com a eclosão da 2ª Guerra Mundial. Na atualidade, a humanidade terá que enfrentar uma nova conflagração mundial para salvar o sistema capitalista mundial da debacle iminente?

E o Brasil? A economia do país é sensível ao que acontece na China, seu principal parceiro comercial e, também, nos Estados Unidos. Uma desaceleração geral da economia mundial produzirá efeito considerável sobre as exportações brasileiras e sobre as perspectivas de crescimento da frágil economia nacional que está estagnada desde 2014 se defrontando com uma recessão endêmica. Se são catastróficas as perspectivas para a economia mundial rumo à depressão econômica, são, também, igualmente catastróficas para a economia brasileira.

LES CATASTROPHES QUI MENACENT L’AVENIR DU BRÉSIL

Fernando Alcoforado*

Le Brésil vit le temps des catastrophes du point de vue politique, économique, social, environnemental et de souveraineté nationale qui conduisent le pays à un désastre aux proportions gigantesques. La catastrophe politique au Brésil pourrait survenir avec la fin du processus démocratique résultant de l’escalade du fascisme dans la société brésilienne par l’action néfaste du président Jair Bolsonaro qui cherche à mettre en pratique sa proposition de gouvernement fasciste basée sur des pratiques gouvernementales autoritaires, dans le mépris social des groupes vulnérable et fragile et anti-communisme. La catastrophe économique se matérialise dans la stagnation dans laquelle se trouve l’économie brésilienne grâce à l’inaction et à l’incompétence du gouvernement Bolsonaro, qui ne fait rien pour la réactiver. La catastrophe sociale résulte de l’aggravation des conditions sociales de la population brésilienne face à la position antisociale du gouvernement de Bolsonaro pour attaquer les droits sociaux de la population et ne pas adopter de mesures pour lutter contre la pauvreté et le chômage de masse. La catastrophe environnementale se produit avec l’incitation du gouvernement Bolsonaro à la dévastation environnementale du pays et son opposition à l’accord de Paris sur le changement climatique mondial sous prétexte de promouvoir le développement de l’économie nationale. La catastrophe de la souveraineté nationale résulte du fait que la soumission du gouvernement de Bolsonaro au gouvernement des États-Unis est en cours et que les biens publics et la richesse nationale sont livrés au capital international.

La catastrophe politique est traitée par Bolsonaro avec la tentative d’implanter une dictature fasciste sous prétexte de lutter contre la corruption et l’ancienne politique qui aggravera les conflits politiques et sociaux et pourrait conduire le pays à un bouleversement politique et social qui peut conduire à la guerre civil qui n’a jamais éclaté au Brésil avec des conséquences imprévisibles. Une dictature fasciste et une guerre civile sont deux des catastrophes qui peuvent se produire au Brésil dans un avenir proche sur le plan politique. Le gouvernement Bolsonaro lui-même a intensifié le conflit entre la Présidence de la République et les autres pouvoirs de la République et la confrontation avec ses opposants pour justifier la répression contre ceux qui réagissent contre les mesures gouvernementales et, en fin de compte, implanter une dictature au Brésil pour gouverner sans les obstacles actuellement imposés par la Constitution de 1988. Depuis le début de son gouvernement, l’attitude du gouvernement de Bolsonaro a été d’augmenter le fossé existant au Brésil entre ses partisans et ses opposants, comme son appel à une manifestation contre le Congrès national et la Cour fédérale suprême prévue pour le 15 mars. A aucun moment de son gouvernement, Bolsonaro n’a proposé de gouverner à tous les Brésiliens.

La catastrophe économique qu’a connue le Brésil se reflète dans la faible croissance du PIB en 2019 (1,1% par rapport à 2018) qui s’ajoute au déficit des comptes du gouvernement de Bolsonaro, qui était de R$ 139 milliards (26,6 milliards de Euros) en 2019 sans calculer le paiement des intérêts et l’amortissement de la dette publique, qui correspondait à R$ 1 425 billions (273 billions de Euros – 44% du budget de l’Union) et le déficit de la balance des paiements de 35,6 milliards de dollars. Il est important de mettre en évidence le comportement désastreux de l’industrie par rapport à 2014 et le niveau d’occupation de la main-d’œuvre ainsi que le chômage et le revenu moyen qui ont enregistré des performances inférieures à celles de 2015. La faible croissance du PIB en 2019 résulte de la baisse de la consommation de la population causée par un gigantesque chômage de masse, baisse des investissements privés du fait de la stagnation économique du pays et du très mauvais environnement politique et de la baisse des investissements publics due à la crise fiscale actuelle et aux efforts du gouvernement pour réduire la participation des Etat dans l’économie avec ses politiques néolibérales. La stagnation économique et la réforme du travail en cours ont contribué à une baisse spectaculaire des recettes publiques et de la sécurité sociale. La catastrophe économique que connaît le Brésil se traduit par la chute vertigineuse des actions de la Bourse de São Paulo et par la forte chute du Real face au Dollar. En bref, la catastrophe économique représente la faillite du système économique brésilien qui stagne depuis 5 ans et de l’État national lui-même à la suite de la gigantesque crise budgétaire qui a conduit le gouvernement à accumuler des déficits successifs dans ses comptes publics. La croissance économique devrait être pire en 2020 en raison du problème des coronavirus qui aura un impact négatif sur l’économie brésilienne et mondiale.

La catastrophe sociale se matérialise par le fait que le gouvernement de Bolsonaro ne fait rien pour résoudre les problèmes de pauvreté et de chômage de masse enregistrés au Brésil. L’extrême pauvreté a augmenté au Brésil et compte maintenant 13,5 millions de personnes survivant avec jusqu’à R$ 145 (27,7 Euros) par mois. Le nombre de pauvres a augmenté depuis 2015, inversant la courbe descendante de la pauvreté des années précédentes. Le nombre de pauvres est un record en sept ans de la série historique de l’Institut brésilien de géographie et de statistique (IBGE). Le chômage élevé, la réduction des dépenses consacrées aux programmes sociaux et la discrimination à l’encontre du nord-est du Brésil, la région la plus pauvre du pays, par rapport au programme Bolsa Família, augmentent l’écart des plus pauvres. La pauvreté touche principalement les États du nord et du nord-est du Brésil, en particulier la population noire et brune, sans éducation ou éducation de base incomplète. Le chômage correspond à 12,7 millions de travailleurs avec une population économiquement active sous-utilisée de 27,6 millions de travailleurs, soit 44% ou 40 millions de travailleurs en situation informelle, c’est-à-dire sans jouir des droits du travail.

La catastrophe environnementale produite par le gouvernement de Bolsonaro concerne la tentative de détruire la forêt amazonienne avec la possibilité manifeste pour le gouvernement de Bolsonaro d’ouvrir la voie aux activités minières, agricoles, d’élevage et de bois, y compris dans les terres indigènes, ainsi que de ne pas collaborer à la lutte contre le changement climat mondial avec le rejet de l’Accord de Paris. La mise en œuvre d’activités minières, agricoles, d’élevage et de bois en Amazonie a des conséquences négatives pour la forêt amazonienne et pour les peuples autochtones qui y résident. La forêt tropicale amazonienne est menacée de déforestation, ce qui fait que ses arbres cessent d’agir comme un puits de carbone, contribuant à prévenir le changement climatique mondial, en plus de nuire aux communautés autochtones qui y vivent. La déforestation en Amazonie menace l’accord du Mercosur avec l’Union européenne. L’ambassadeur d’Allemagne au Brésil, Georg Witschel, a déclaré que si le gouvernement brésilien ne réduit pas la déforestation en Amazonie aux niveaux de 2017, l’accord de libre-échange entre le Mercosur et l’Union européenne ne sera pas ratifié par la partie européenne. L’action dévastatrice du gouvernement Bolsonaro en Amazonie contribue également à produire des conséquences économiques néfastes pour le Brésil.

La catastrophe de la souveraineté nationale réside dans le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro transforme la nation brésilienne en un pays subordonné aux intérêts des États-Unis et approfondit sa soumission aux diktats du capital international qui se manifestent dans la livraison de la base d’Alcântara aux États-Unis, la dénationalisation de la Embraer, avec sa vente à Boeing, la privatisation progressive en cours de Petrobras et probablement de Banco do Brasil, les ventes aux enchères de pétrole dans la région de Pré-sel en effectuant la plus grande livraison de richesse nationale de l’histoire aux capitaux étrangers avec la zone excédentaire de “cession onéreuse”, selon certaines estimations, jusqu’à 30 milliards de barils dans les champs géants. Dans les gouvernements de Temer et de Bolsonaro, la participation étrangère au pillage de la richesse nationale a augmenté de façon exponentielle avec les privatisations des champs pétroliers appartenant à Petrobras et avec de nouvelles ventes aux enchères qui, en deux ans, la production étrangère est passée de 7% à 23%. Avec les nouvelles ventes aux enchères qui seront menées par le gouvernement de Bolsonaro, rapidement, la majeure partie de la production nationale sera étrangère démontrant le caractère anti-national de son gouvernement. Paulo Guedes, économiste néolibéral et ministre de l’Économie du gouvernement de Bolsonaro, a déclaré qu’il avait l’intention de privatiser tous les biens publics, les transférant ainsi à des capitaux étrangers. La privatisation implique en fait ce que l’on appelle communément la «dénationalisation», dans laquelle les acquéreurs majoritaires sont presque toujours (sinon toujours !) des sociétés ou des consortiums étrangers dont les bénéfices sont reversés à leur siège à l’étranger. L’utilisation du terme “privatisation” est un moyen de cacher son véritable objectif, qui est de remettre les actifs de la nation au capital étranger. La livraison de la richesse nationale aux capitaux internationaux est encore une autre catastrophe produite par le déplorable gouvernement Bolsonaro.

Les perspectives d’avenir du Brésil sont extrêmement négatives avec le gouvernement Jair Bolsonaro, dont les actions seront désastreuses pour le pays face aux catastrophes qu’il produit déjà et produiront pour la démocratie, l’économie nationale, les droits sociaux, l’environnement et L’indépendance du Brésil vis-à-vis des grandes puissances, en particulier des États-Unis, et le capitale internationale. À l’ère néolibérale dans laquelle nous vivons avec le gouvernement Bolsonaro, il n’y a pas de place pour faire avancer la démocratie, les droits sociaux, le progrès économique et l’indépendance nationale. Au contraire, il y a l’élimination de la démocratie et des droits sociaux et la déconstruction et le déni des réalisations déjà réalisées par le Brésil dans les domaines de l’indépendance politique, économique, sociale, environnementale et nationale. Face aux catastrophes politiques, économiques, sociales, environnementales et de souveraineté nationale que le gouvernement Bolsonaro représente pour le Brésil, l’avenir du pays est radicalement compromis.

THE CATASTROPHES THAT THREATEN BRAZIL’S FUTURE

Fernando Alcoforado *

Brazil lives the time of catastrophes from the political, economic, social, environmental and national sovereignty point of view that are leading the country to a disaster of gigantic proportions. The political catastrophe in Brazil may occur with the end of the democratic process resulting from the escalation of fascism in Brazilian society by the nefarious action of President Jair Bolsonaro who seeks to put into practice his fascist government proposal based on authoritarian government practices, in the social contempt for groups vulnerable and fragile and anti-communism. The economic catastrophe materializes in the stagnation in which the Brazilian economy finds itself thanks to the inaction and incompetence of the Bolsonaro government, which does nothing to reactivate it. The social catastrophe results from the worsening social conditions of the Brazilian population in the face of the Bolsonaro government’s antisocial stance in attacking the population’s social rights and not adopting measures to combat poverty and mass unemployment. The environmental catastrophe is occurring with the Bolsonaro government’s incentive to the country’s environmental devastation and its opposition to the Paris Agreement on global climate change under the pretext of promoting the development of the national economy. The catastrophe of national sovereignty results from the fact that the Bolsonaro government’s subservience to the United States government is underway and the delivery of public assets and national wealth to international capital.

The political catastrophe is being processed by Bolsonaro with the attempt to implant a fascist dictatorship under the pretext of combating corruption and the old policy that will aggravate political and social conflicts and may lead the country to a political and social upheaval that can lead to a civil war never occurred in Brazil with unforeseeable consequences. A fascist dictatorship and a civil war are two of the catastrophes that can happen in Brazil in the near future on the political plane. The Bolsonaro government itself has intensified the conflict between the Presidency of the Republic and the other powers of the Republic and the confrontation with its opponents to justify repression against those who react against government measures and, ultimately, to implant a dictatorship in Brazil to govern without the obstacles currently imposed by the 1988 Constitution. Since the beginning of his government, the attitude of the Bolsonaro government has been to increase the existing divide in Brazil between its supporters and opponents such as its call for a demonstration against the National Congress and the Supreme Federal Court scheduled for March 15. At no time during his government, Bolsonaro proposed to govern for all Brazilians.

The economic catastrophe experienced by Brazil is reflected in the meager GDP growth in 2019 (1.1% in relation to 2018) which is added to the deficit in the Bolsonaro government’s accounts, which was R $ 139 billion in 2019 without calculating the payment of interest and amortization of the public debt, which corresponded to R$ 1.425 trillion (44% of the Union budget) and the deficit in the balance of payments of US$ 35.6 billion. It is important to highlight the disastrous behavior of the industry in relation to 2014 and the level of occupation of the workforce as well as unemployment and the average income that performed worse than in 2015. The meager GDP growth in 2019 resulted from the drop in consumption by the population caused by gigantic mass unemployment, fall in private investment as a result of the country’s economic stagnation and the very bad political environment and the fall in public investment due to the existing fiscal crisis and the government’s effort to reduce the participation of the State in the economy with its neoliberal policies. The economic stagnation and the current labor reform have contributed to a dramatic drop in government and Social Security revenues. The economic catastrophe experienced by Brazil is being reflected in the vertiginous fall of the shares on the São Paulo Stock Exchange and in the sharp fall of the Real against the Dollar.In short, the economic catastrophe represents the bankruptcy of the Brazilian economic system that has been stagnating for 5 years and of the national state itself because of the gigantic fiscal crisis that has caused the government to accumulate successive deficits in its public accounts. Economic growth is expected to be worse in 2020 due to the coronavirus problem that will have a negative impact on the Brazilian and world economy.

The social catastrophe is materialized in the fact that the Bolsonaro government does nothing to solve the problems of poverty and mass unemployment that are registered in Brazil. Extreme poverty has increased in Brazil and already amounts to 13.5 million people surviving with up to R$ 145 (US$ 31.4) a month. The number of poor people has been growing since 2015, reversing the downward curve of poverty in previous years. The number of poor people is a record in seven years of the historical series of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The rise in unemployment, the reduction of spending on social programs and discrimination against the Northeast of Brazil, the poorest region of the country, in relation to the Bolsa Família Program increase the gap of the poorest. Poverty mainly affects states in the North and Northeast of Brazil, especially the black and brown population, with no education or incomplete basic education. Unemployment corresponds to 12.7 million workers with an underutilized economically active population of 27.6 million workers, 44% or 40 million workers in an informal situation, that is, without enjoying labor rights.

The environmental catastrophe produced by the Bolsonaro government concerns the attempt to destroy the Amazon rainforest with the manifest possibility of the Bolsonaro government to pave the way for mining, agriculture, livestock and timber activities, including in indigenous lands, as well as not collaborating in the fight against change global climate with the rejection of the Paris Agreement. The implementation of mining, agriculture, livestock and timber activities in the Amazon has negative consequences for the Amazon rainforest and for the indigenous peoples residing there. The Amazon rainforest is threatened with deforestation, causing its trees to cease to act as a carbon sink, helping to prevent global climate change, in addition to harming the indigenous communities that live in it. Deforestation in the Amazon threatens Mercosur’s agreement with the European Union. Germany’s ambassador to Brazil, Georg Witschel said that if the Brazilian government does not reduce deforestation in the Amazon to 2017 levels, the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union would not be ratified by the European side. The devastating action of the Bolsonaro government in the Amazon is also contributing to producing harmful economic consequences for Brazil.

The catastrophe of national sovereignty lies in the fact that the Bolsonaro government turns the Brazilian nation into a country subordinate to the interests of the United States and deepens its submission to the dictates of international capital that manifests itself in the delivery of the Alcântara Base to the United States, the denationalization of the Embraer, with its sale to Boeing, the ongoing gradual privatization of Petrobras and likely Banco do Brasil, the oil auctions in the Pre-salt area by carrying out the largest delivery of national wealth in history to foreign capital with the surplus area of “assignment with encumbrance” that some estimates amount to up to 30 billion barrels in the giant fields. In the Temer and Bolsonaro governments, foreign participation in the plundering of national wealth increased exponentially with privatizations of oil fields that belong to Petrobras and with new auctions that, in two years, foreign production went from 7% to 23%. With the new auctions to be carried out by the Bolsonaro government, quickly, most of the national production will be foreign demonstrating the antinational character of his government. Paulo Guedes, the neoliberal economist and Economy Minister of the Bolsonaro government, stated that he intends to privatize all public assets, thereby handing it over to foreign capital. Privatizing implies, in fact, what is usually called “denationalization”, in which the controlling acquirers are almost always (if not always!) Foreign companies or consortia whose profits are remitted to their headquarters abroad. The use of the term “privatization” is a way of hiding its true purpose, which is to hand over the nation’s assets to foreign capital. The delivery of national wealth to international capital is yet another catastrophe produced by the deplorable Bolsonaro government.

The prospects for the future of Brazil are extremely negative with the Jair Bolsonaro government, whose actions will be dire for the country in the face of the catastrophes that it is already producing and will produce for democracy, the national economy, social rights, the environment and Brazil’s independence in relation to the great powers, especially the United States, and the international capital. In the neoliberal era in which we live with the Bolsonaro government, there is no space for advancing democracy, social rights, economic progress and national independence. On the contrary, there is the elimination of democracy and social rights and the deconstruction and denial of the achievements already made by Brazil in the political, economic, social, environmental and national independence fields. In the face of political, economic, social, environmental and national sovereignty catastrophes that the Bolsonaro government represents for Brazil, the country’s future is radically compromised.