HOW TO PLAN BRAZIL’S DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEMPORARY ERA

Fernando Alcoforado*

The economic and social situation in Brazil now is quite serious because the failure in social progress is added to the failure in economic progress with the economic stagnation that generates mass unemployment. This situation resulted from the fact that no governments of Brazil since 1990 planned the development of the Brazilian economy because they obeyed what the Washington Consensus establishes by adopting the neoliberal economic model that does not allow effective State intervention in the economy. In our book, Os fatores condicionantes do desenvolvimento econômico e social (The conditioning factors for economic and social development), published by Editora CRV de Curitiba in 2012, we emphasize the need for government planning to avoid anarchy in the economic activity typical of the governments of capitalist countries that only intervene in the economy at times of crisis. In that book, we affirm that in the process of governmental planning, “in the design of a country’s developmental policies, it is necessary to identify the internal and external factors that condition economic and social development, and then to characterize those that are booster and restrictive”.

In this same book, we affirm that “a policy of economic and social development will only be effective insofar as it is able to make the most of internal and external booster factors and inhibit or neutralize internal and external factors that restrict the development of a country. These booster and restrictive factors for development are located on three levels: 1) in the economy; 2) in society; 3) in the territory. Nothing was accomplished by the governments of Brazil in 1990, when the neoliberal model was introduced, until the present moment in the sense of using the booster factors and neutralizing the factors restricting their development located in the economy, in society and in the territory. All countries in the world that have been successful in pursuing economic and social development have succeeded in establishing an adequate synergy between the plans of the economy, society and the territory.

The boosters factors of development in the economy are related to: 1) availability of capital as a factor of production; 2) existence of internal and external demand for products or services; 3) presence of internal and external entrepreneurs interested in investing; 4) existence of a competitive industrial structure; 5) presence of a competitive business environment that contributes to the innovation of products and processes; and, 6) existence of a favorable macroeconomic situation. The total or partial absence or non-use of any of these factors can restrict a country’s economic and social development.

Brazil does not fulfill any of the conditions mentioned above because, having no capital, it opens up its economy to attract foreign capital, increasing its external dependence, the internal demand for products and services is greatly affected by the stagnation of the economy and by mass unemployment, entrepreneurs internal and external interested in investing are in small numbers thanks to the stagnation of the economy, Brazil’s industrial structure is not competitive due to infrastructure problems and high taxes, among other factors, which are contributing to the country’s deindustrialization, absence of a competitive business environment resulting from the current crisis that contributes to low level of innovation of products and processes and the existence of an unfavorable macroeconomic situation resulting from the fact that Brazil presents deficits in the balance of payments. Only with the reactivation of the economy with government planning will it be possible to overcome these problems.

Before reactivating the Brazilian economy, it is necessary to abandon the neoliberal model, responsible for Brazil’s current economic debacle that should be replaced by the national developmental model with selective opening of the Brazilian economy similar to that adopted in the 1930/1980 period when Brazil reached its greatest development economic and social history. Brazil’s GDP growth rates ranged from 4.6% per year in 1930 to 8.6% per year in 1980, which corresponds to the period in history when the federal government played an active role in the country’s economic and social development. 2015 and 2016, for example, GDP had negative growth by 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively. It was a negative milestone for the country’s economic history. Now, Brazil is experiencing 5 years of recession with no prospect of a short-term solution. To worsen the scenario of the current decade, the signs of a slow recovery are consolidating. In the past two years, GDP grew by only 1.1%. The Bolsonaro government’s inaction is blatant in not adopting any strategy that contributes to boosting the Brazilian economy and eliminating its restrictive factors..

The Brazilian government should consider as a number 1 priority to reactivate the economy with the immediate execution of a broad program of public infrastructure works (energy, transportation, housing, basic sanitation, etc.) with the participation of the private sector to combat unemployment bulk current raising the levels of employment and income of families and companies to, consequently, promote the expansion of the consumption of families and companies resulting, respectively, from the increase in the wages of families and the income of companies with investments in public works for make Brazil grow economically again. In addition to the public works program, the Brazilian government should develop a broad export program, especially in agribusiness and the mineral sector, the drastic reduction in bank interest rates to encourage household consumption and investment by companies, the reduction of the burden tax with restrictions on raising high salaries in the public sector, cutting perks and public administration bodies and falling charges on interest payments and amortization of public debt to be renegotiated with public debt creditors for the government to have resources for investment in economic and social infrastructure. Without adopting this strategy, Brazil will inevitably be driven to economic ruin and political and social upheaval.

The booster factors of development at the level of society concern: 1) availability of human resources and knowledge resources as factors of production; 2) availability of social infrastructure (education, health and sanitation); and, 3) existence of active organized civil society institutions, active labor unions and strong progressive political parties. Brazil is very fragile in terms of the availability of qualified human resources necessary for the country’s development due to the failure of the education system at all levels, the lack of its own knowledge resources that generates the country’s technological dependence in the face of the need to acquire technology abroad,  the deterioration of social infrastructure (education, health, sanitation and housing) that contributes to the poor qualification of human resources, the worsening of the population’s health due to the deficiency in health and basic sanitation services and the deficit in popular housing and the absence active civil society institutions, active labor unions and strong progressive political parties able to pressure the government to meet the population’s demand for employment, education, health, basic sanitation, popular housing, as well as requiring government to strengthen das Universities and research centers in the country to overcome external technological dependence. The Bolsonaro government’s inaction is blatant because it does not adopt strategies to eliminate the restrictive factors that exist in Brazilian society in terms of human resources, knowledge resources and social infrastructure (education, health and sanitation). It is also questioned the inaction of Civil Society bodies, workers’ unions and progressive political parties in the fight against the Bolsonaro government’s anti-democratic, anti-social and anti-national policy.

The booster factors of development at the level of territory concern: 1) availability of natural or man-made physical resources as factors of production; 2) availability of economic infrastructure (energy, transport and communications); 3) existence of places or cities as poles of growth and development that are territorially well distributed; and, 4) existence of endogenous or local development potential in all regions of the country. Brazil has all these 4 factors. What Brazil lacks is the action of economic and social planning by the federal government, in conjunction with state and municipal governments, in the sense of using intelligently the vast natural resources and built for the economic and social development of the country, strengthening the infrastructure (energy, transport and communications) existing where necessary, to establish and strengthen cities that will become poles of growth and development and to elaborate regional development plans seeking to take advantage of the endogenous development potential that exists in each region of the country. The inaction of the Bolsonaro government is blatant in the sense of boosting development based on existing resources in the Brazilian territory.

To be successful in implementing their developmental policies, governments need to ensure that the booster factors of development existing in each of the three plans mentioned above (economy, society and territory) are widely used in promoting economic and social development and that restrictive factors are eliminated or neutralized. This means that the most adequate synergy between the factors that exist in terms of the economy, society and territory is decisive for achieving the necessary economic and social development. None of this is being carried out and will never be carried out by the Bolsonaro government because it is committed to the neoliberal model that has unhappy the Brazilian nation since 1990.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 80, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic  planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),  Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).

Author: falcoforado

FERNANDO ANTONIO GONÇALVES ALCOFORADO, condecorado com a Medalha do Mérito da Engenharia do Sistema CONFEA/CREA, membro da Academia Baiana de Educação, da SBPC- Sociedade Brasileira para o Progresso da Ciência e do IPB- Instituto Politécnico da Bahia, engenheiro pela Escola Politécnica da UFBA e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário (Engenharia, Economia e Administração) e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, foi Assessor do Vice-Presidente de Engenharia e Tecnologia da LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company do Rio de Janeiro, Coordenador de Planejamento Estratégico do CEPED- Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento da Bahia, Subsecretário de Energia do Estado da Bahia, Secretário do Planejamento de Salvador, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia ao longo da história e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), de capítulo do livro Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023) e A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023). View all posts by falcoforado