THE RESULTS OF COP 27 AND WHAT TO DO TO AVOID GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to evaluate the results of COP 27 and present the necessary measures to avoid catastrophic global climate change. The UN climate talks in Egypt at COP 27 addressed the symptoms of the climate crisis but did little to neutralize or eliminate its causes. The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation Work Program has set a reduction for before 2030. On “loss and damage” caused by the impact of the climate crisis, more progress has been made than many believed possible, with a commitment to create a financial support framework until the 2023 COP 28, as the costs of extreme weather have risen to over $200 billion annually. There has been progress for the vulnerable countries. Despite this, there is no clarity on the terms of funding agreements. The reassessment of which countries pay and which receive will also be an important issue next year at COP 28.

Rich countries still have not delivered the 100 billion dollars a year to help developing nations with their climate action. The agreement on carbon markets is neither conclusive nor good. The agreement takes a step back from protecting indigenous peoples’ rights, and allows the carbon benefits of some credits to be counted multiple times. Continued work next year at COP 28 will be against the backdrop of growing skepticism around shoddy carbon offsets and the need for stricter regulation.

A 1.5°C threshold for increasing the planet’s average temperature was mentioned in the agreement, but very little has been done to ensure that warming will stay within these limits. Keeping warming within this limit will reduce the suffering of much of the world’s population. While references to 1.5°C in the final text are welcome, it is only an acknowledgment and there are no details on how this will be achieved.

Countries have failed to reach an agreement to phase out all fossil fuels. This did not happen because the presence of the oil, gas and large agricultural industries loomed over these talks, with over 636 lobbyists at COP 27 and a stream of gas deals made on the sidelines. The transition from fossil fuel-based energies to renewable energies as a way to solve the current climate crisis does not show any progress on the fossil fuel side, which leaves things as they were at COP 26 in Glasgow, with a regrettable quote only about the decrease in coal use. There is an urgent need to directly address the abandonment of fossil fuels from energy systems in all geographic spaces.

We need to fight the fossil fuel industry once and for all. The 636 fossil fuel lobbyists and CEOs from BP, Shell, Total and Occidental who walked the halls of COP 27 were there for one reason: the energy transition to renewables energy poses a clear threat to their businesses. We are likely to see oil industry and its sponsors continue to try to influence the process in the year ahead. Disinformation will continue to be a key tool in this lobby’s operations.

One of the topics identified as central to COP27 was the food crisis, but action on this topic and on nature were left out of the text. FAO announced that it would produce a roadmap and milestones at COP28 on how the food system can be made compatible with the Paris Agreement, which, surprisingly, no such analysis exists. There was no requirement that countries tighten their climate plans ahead of COP28.

COP 27 made clear the enormous challenge the world has to scale to avoid catastrophic global climate change. There is a clearer understanding of what needs to happen in the years to come and world leaders will need to make the most of positive new geopolitical developments, including Brazil’s return to the high-level climate debate and the United States and China’s climate rapprochement. The participation of President-elect Lula of Brazil was celebrated by negotiators and observers. He promised many actions to protect Brazilian biomes, especially the Amazon, which could give new life to the themes of nature and food production, which did not go well in the negotiations of this COP 27.

It can be seen that, despite the efforts made with COP 27 to avoid the worsening of global climate change, the results obtained so far demonstrate that efforts have been insufficient to achieve the objectives, given that each of the last eight years has been hotter than all known records so far, according to a report by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization). CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are so high that the target of 1.5°C is almost unattainable. Methane emissions, for example, a major greenhouse gas, increased dramatically in 2021.

An important issue that COP 28 should consider is the fact that there are great inequalities in greenhouse gas emissions by the world’s population, given that the rich are the biggest polluters, which is why they should pay more taxes on carbon than the rest of the world population. Figure 1 presents the global inequality in carbon emissions by groups of the world’s population, i.e. the poorest 50%, the middle class 40%, the richest 10% and the richest 1%. Figure 1 is taken from the World Report on Inequalities for 2022 produced by the team of Thomas Piketty from the Paris School of Economics, published on the website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

FIGURE 1 – Global carbon inequality, 2019 – Contribution by group to world emissions (%)

Source: https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/

COP 28 should adopt climate policies aimed at taxing rich polluters more, that is, the 10% of the world’s population that is responsible for 65% of greenhouse gas emissions. Until now, climate policies such as carbon taxes have often disproportionately affected low- and middle-income groups, while failing to change the consumption habits of wealthier groups. In the world, on average, human beings emit 6.6 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per capita per year. In Figure 1, the 10% of the world’s population (the richest) are the main emitters of greenhouse gases because they are responsible for about 65% of all emissions, while the 50% of the world’s population (the poorest) emit 12 % of the total (Figure 1). This means that it is necessary that at COP 28 policies be adopted that make the world’s population pay taxes on carbon proportional to their contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. The rich should pay far more carbon taxes than the poor and middle class.

Figure 2 shows greenhouse gas emissions per capita by region in the world in 2019. Figure 1 is taken from the World Report on Inequalities for 2022 produced by the team of Thomas Piketty from the Paris School of Economics, published on the website <https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/>.

FIGURE 2 – Per capita emissions worldwide, 2019

Source: https://outraspalavras.net/desigualdades-mundo/novo-mapa-da-desigualdade-global/

In Figure 2, it can be seen that the richest population (10% of the total population of each region) accounts for the highest emissions of greenhouse gases in all regions of the planet, followed by the middle class (40% of the total population of each region) and the poor (50% of the total population in each region). In each region of the planet or country, there should be application of carbon taxes proportional to the contribution of each population group to the emission of greenhouse gases. The collected carbon taxes should be used to finance policies to mitigate greenhouse gases. This policy should be adopted by COP 28.

We are facing a critical moment in the history of Earth and humanity, at a time when it is necessary to choose the best path to be followed towards the future. As the world becomes increasingly interdependent and fragile, humanity at the same time faces great dangers regarding its future. We must recognize that in the midst of a magnificent diversity of cultures and ways of life, we are one human family and one earth community with a common destiny. We must join forces to create a sustainable global society based on respect for nature, universal human rights, economic justice and a culture of peace to avoid catastrophic global climate change. To achieve this purpose, it is imperative that all of us, the peoples of Earth, declare our responsibility towards each and every one, aiming at the continuity of life on the planet and of future generations.

The real solution to the problems related to global climate change will only happen when there is a profound transformation of current society. The unsustainability of the current model of capitalist development is evident, since it has been extremely destructive of living conditions on the planet. In view of this, it is imperative to replace the current dominant economic model around the world with another that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. This needs to be considered at the next COP 28.

Finally, it is important to consider at the next COP 28 the need to build a governance system on planet Earth capable of ensuring that the planet’s environment is not threatened by catastrophic climate change and contribute to international relations that worsen every day do not fuel the proliferation of wars. Without the existence of a governance system on planet Earth that ensures the defense of the environment and world peace, humanity will not reverse climate change, which tends to be irreversible and catastrophic.

* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022) and a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022).